Caulfield Cup

[sethlad]

Anyone have a handle on Mr Medici?
HK staying form is hard to line up because he seems to finish behind Viva Pataca who we never got to see in the flesh....
except last start in a hurricane

seth

 

[_SYT_]

My long-ish time CC horse to watch has actually been Tokai Trick.
He doesn't hit his best until 3000+, but I've been hearing he has settled in well and he definitely has the class to make a contest of it.
The factor which dampens my excitement for him is apparently he's not the most imposing beast around and if we get the usual CC argy-bargy in the thick of it, he could be the knocked out of contention.. on the plus side, he'll probably drift back and out of the heaviest action early anyway and make a long sustained run around them, out of trouble - especially if his jockey sticks to his Oz form (lol). The way the 2010 CC field is shaping up and Tokai Trick being 50-1, I'd like to think of him as a value e-w chance.

I can definitely see Herculian Prince being capable of turning it on down south in the CC - if he makes the field, for which he is still borderline. The horse that ran second to him in the Metrop, Mourayan, now that a good run has 'switched him on', wouldn't be shocked to see a good run either, but again, another border-line runner.

The field is, well, it won't be 'disappointing', but many of the combatants haven't been racing in peak form, which makes it difficult as always.

Despite being hyped pretty much year after year and this decade results being average-poor in the CC, I think the 2010 version of the Herbert Power is a good'un and the winner deserves to be highly rated in the CC.
I'm hoping Linton is the one and I'm reasonably confident he can be - but Precedence, Apprehend and Moudre can all win and then acquit themselves well in the big one.

 

[Cupper]

Just on this, if these two finish 1st and 2nd will the horse that finishes 2nd get a start in the CCup? Or do they both need to win to make the field?

Am trying to figure out the same thing?? Or if there is any other way the either of Precedence or Moudre can qualify if they dont win???

 

[sethlad]

Am trying to figure out the same thing?? Or if there is any other way the either of Precedence or Moudre can qualify if they dont win???

Winner is straight in,the rest need to rely on dropouts above them

seth

 

[NJ1983]

If it's a true staying test MASTER O has a great e/w chance. The thing holding him back since his CC win is that the trainer has been so intent on winning the MC that he has taken away most of the dash he used to possess.

At this stage I'll be backing MR MEDICI e/w but I've got a strong feeling MOUDRE will brain them Saturday and start a short priced favourite.

 

[The Big Woofer]

If it's a true staying test MASTER O has a great e/w chance. The thing holding him back since his CC win is that the trainer has been so intent on winning the MC that he has taken away most of the dash he used to possess.

At this stage I'll be backing MR MEDICI e/w but I've got a strong feeling MOUDRE will brain them Saturday and start a short priced favourite.

I assure you in speaking to the stable that this year Master O'Reilly is targeted at the Caulfield Cup & is going as well as ever. I re-watched the Underwood replay & his run was very similar to Shocking's & he'll get weight off shocking in the cup. 50/1 still overs.

 

[sethlad]

Clearly Im the only poster on the Punting Board who doesnt know someone in the O'Brien camp
Last year Vigor,this year Master O......its amazing how far their web stretches.

seth

 

[jmirra]

lol

 

[Saint4Ever]

ALCOPOP

Just came in from $15 to equal favourite $6 after finishing second to So You Think in the Yalumba.

 

[pizzor]

Alcopop if he produces a similar run to today's one in the Yalumba will win. 53.5kg he'll be at.

 

[The Dustbin]

One thing is for certain.... Master O'Reilly will not run a place.

 

[maxlad]

One thing is for certain.... Master O'Reilly will not run a place.

no master orielly is massive value for the first 4

F/F/F/master o

 

[_SYT_]

Alcopop is still no certainty to be in the field as he's only = 19th in the order of entry (same as Herculian Prince, Mourayan, Red Ruler and Vigor (unlikely)). You'd think there's little doubt the committee will shove him in somewhere though. Could possibly/probably helped by an attrition rate during the week as well..

Shame that at this stage it sounds like Linton won't be going to this cup, really think he'd give it a good shake.. It wouldn't be the first time we've heard a story spun from that camp though, but now that he's rocketed up the list for the Melbourne Cup to be pretty much assured a run, Lloyd will be doing what he thinks is best to get the best Linton to strut his stuff in the MC.

 

[TomDwan]

Can anyone tell me what the knock is on Shocking for the Caulfield Cup? Is is just the track? I would have thought its clearly the best horse in the race and coming off a couple of really nice runs. Was expecting ot to be the clear fav but is about 4th fav paying $8.

 

[Lockyer24]

I'm very much without a horse this year (that I've been following) with Linton and Moudre to miss.

On a plus though I'll be able to look at it a bit more subjectively - Dariana if she can produce a run like 2 starts back might be in the mix.

 

[The Big Woofer]

One thing is for certain.... Master O'Reilly will not run a place.

Why? Because he got run off his feet in a totally unsuitable WFA 2000m race?? A genuinely run 2400m hcp is a completely different proposition.

You go & have a good look at the field & work out how many horses in there are either a. No Good or b. massive querries at the trip

MOR he's definitely a place chance, Alcopop looks the winner but he may not make the final field.

 

[sethlad]

Heard that Once Were Wild isnt running (TAB have removed her from the market) & CLG is going to the Coongy according to Lloyd.
If so that gets both HP & Alcopop in, must also be a doubt on Buccellati,was galloped on in the Turnbull.

seth

 

[PieBeast]

So winning the Metropolitan doesn't assure you of a start in CC but guarantees you a run in MC? Weird.

 

[Rough_Edges]

Alcopop was huge yesterday, sensational run

I think it will be hard to beat.

That said, like Lockyer23, Dariana's run 2 starts ago sticks with me.

They are my 2 favoured runners at the minute.

 

[Ricketts]

Alcopop for me.

Think back to last year how impressive he was over the same course.

Was thinking for a while that Metal Bender was the one, as he would be suited by both handicap conditions and the distance, but i have to go back to my boy Alcopop.

 

[lozza63]

Alcopop for me.

Think back to last year how impressive he was over the same course.

Was thinking for a while that Metal Bender was the one, as he would be suited by both handicap conditions and the distance, but i have to go back to my boy Alcopop.

Have to agree - no way the Bender could have competed with Alco's final 400m sectional in the Yalumba. In the Underwood SYT was not at his best (stewards report - fractious and over racing), the weight, dist and track all seem to favor Alcopop - does he make the field though? I cant see why a second in a WFA cant get you into the Cup field, also winning the Herbie last year - a CC entry lapsed already????

I am also confused at how the metrop doesnt get u in - Herculian Prince is the real interesting runner here, could be Gay's chance for a Melb major!

 

[Hoffy95]

Slow/Heavy forecast for Saturday?

Put a line through Alcopop if turns out this way. Shocking's quote will halve if this is the case.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Is shocking a definate starter though?. Personally i would bypass the caulf for fear of getting more weight in the melbourne cup. ?

 

[Hoffy95]

Is shocking a definate starter though?. Personally i would bypass the caulf for fear of getting more weight in the melbourne cup. ?

Pretty sure Shocking will run.

I thought the same with Viewed last year.

 

[sethlad]

Slow/Heavy forecast for Saturday?

Put a line through Alcopop if turns out this way. Shocking's quote will halve if this is the case.

Why?
JRA Cup last year was on a slow from memory & he spanked them

seth