Speculation Chad Warner

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CaseySibosadoHOF said:
Might be more relevant to ask West Coast why the pre-season draft threat didn't materialise for Baker, Owies or Brockman. Best thing is, the question doesn't have to be rhetorical coz Pyke has answered it.

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We got Brockman for 44 & 61 or something like that. Hawthorn wanted our 2nd. The difference between those two is the impact of the PSD.

Baker is different because he was willing to sign on with Tigers or go to Freo if he couldn't go to us.
 
Dom sheed pocket said:
We got Brockman for 44 & 61 or something like that. Hawthorn wanted our 2nd. The difference between those two is the impact of the PSD.
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Is it? Or is it just the difference btwn a player being out of contract and in contract and/or just the natural trade processes? Both clubs make their demands, teams meet somewhere in the middle. Hawks would've been dreaming to think an out-of-contract 26 gamer who was picked in the 40s was getting your 2nd.
Dom sheed pocket said:
Baker is different because he was willing to sign on with Tigers or go to Freo if he couldn't go to us.
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They're all different...until you realise that the "different" ones happen 95% of the time. League's very "good bloke-y": even the "hard" negotiators play by the informal rules to preserve relationships.

Geelong held all the cards in the Bailey Smith trade and they knew the Bulldogs weren't actually gonna refuse a first rounder, but even they caved a little so the Bulldogs could pretend they did something worthwhile. Hell, if it wasn't for the Prisoner's Dilemma type trade relationships, Geelong should've really not even offered their 1st, or at least demanded something back.

If you think Chad will be the exception rather than the rule, I have a bridge to sell you.
 

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Dom sheed pocket said:
Ngl, I stopped reading here.

I have a question for you... If PSD is so irrelevant, what is it about being out of contract that impact on trade value?
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Being out of contract impacts trade value far less than you'd think it should. Most times you get like 80% of what you'd get if they were in contract, maybe more. Cerra got Freo pick 6, Freo paid 2 firsts for Jackson, Eagles paid pick 14 for Baker, etc. Do you think these players are worth significantly more than that?

To the extent it does impact trade value, it's time pressure really. 2022, Bulldogs trade Dunkley to Brisbane for a couple picks in the early 20s. A bargain for Brisbane. The PSD had precisely nothing to do with it: Brisbane were in a prelim. Negotiation 101 - it's about which team has the best alternative to a negotiated agreement:
  • If Bulldogs don't do a deal, they lose a really good player for nothing.
  • If Brisbane don't do a deal, they might not get Dunkley but they definitely get to keep their picks and use them on something else.
Bulldogs have to get a deal done in a 10 day trade period or they get nothing. Brisbane either get a really good player or get to draft a couple potentially really good players. They'd prefer the former option, but they can live with the latter. No contest on who has more pressure. No contest on who's gonna cave a bit more.

The PSD can give a mechanism for clubs to have their cake and eat it too. Rarely. But without that, the selling club still has the pressure on them.
 
CaseySibosadoHOF said:
Being out of contract impacts trade value far less than you'd think it should. Most times you get like 80% of what you'd get if they were in contract, maybe more. Cerra got Freo pick 6, Freo paid 2 firsts for Jackson, Eagles paid pick 14 for Baker, etc. Do you think these players are worth significantly more than that?

To the extent it does impact trade value, it's time pressure really. 2022, Bulldogs trade Dunkley to Brisbane for a couple picks in the early 20s. A bargain for Brisbane. The PSD had precisely nothing to do with it: Brisbane were in a prelim. Negotiation 101 - it's about which team has the best alternative to a negotiated agreement:
  • If Bulldogs don't do a deal, they lose a really good player for nothing.
  • If Brisbane don't do a deal, they might not get Dunkley but they definitely get to keep their picks and use them on something else.
Bulldogs have to get a deal done in a 10 day trade period or they get nothing. Brisbane either get a really good player or get to draft a couple potentially really good players. They'd prefer the former option, but they can live with the latter. No contest on who has more pressure. No contest on who's gonna cave a bit more.

The PSD can give a mechanism for clubs to have their cake and eat it too. Rarely. But without that, the selling club still has the pressure on them.
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I think the impact of contract status on trade value is really down to the clubs trading. It does make a legitimate difference.

You list a few Freo trades but Freo seem to only use contract status when trading a player out. Schultz, Hill, Lobb compared to Langdon and Cerra (people shouldnt equate Cerra now with Cerra then).

Brisbane and Geelong seem more than content to leverage the crap out of contract status on trading players in. I think Cats specifcally dont trade for someone unless uncontracted so they can get as cheap as possible. It's a club by club thing but we arent getting anywhere near wat we got for Schultz and Hill if uncontracted.
 
CaseySibosadoHOF said:
The PSD can give a mechanism for clubs to have their cake and eat it too. Rarely. But without that, the selling club still has the pressure on them.
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You typed a whole lot of words here, but this was all that is required.

Yes PSD is a mechanism that can reduce an out of contract players trade value.

We agree!
 
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CaseySibosadoHOF said:
Brisbane either get a really good player or get to draft a couple potentially really good players.
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Point of order.

Brisbane either get a ready to go, 25 games a season of high quality, really good player or the chance to draft a couple of teenagers who might be really good players and might play a season of football between them but it would be more within averages for them to have a quarter of the output combined of Dunkley, especially in a flag chasing season.
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
I think the impact of contract status on trade value is really down to the clubs trading. It does make a legitimate difference.

You list a few Freo trades but Freo seem to only use contract status when trading a player out. Schultz, Hill, Lobb compared to Langdon and Cerra (people shouldnt equate Cerra now with Cerra then).

Brisbane and Geelong seem more than content to leverage the crap out of contract status on trading players in. I think Cats specifcally dont trade for someone unless uncontracted so they can get as cheap as possible. It's a club by club thing but we arent getting anywhere near wat we got for Schultz and Hill if uncontracted.
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It makes a difference, but the AFL bubble makes that difference seem way more pronounced than it actually is. In soccer, if you let a player go out of contract and they go to another club, you get an Instagram post. If the player feels like it.

Even the most hardass negotiators (Brisbane and Geelong are good examples), they have to give real capital for players. Nobody would claim Geelong paid full price on Cameron, Danger, Ollie Henry, etc. But they paid a chunk, and that's the extreme end of negotiating.
 
Dom sheed pocket said:
You typed a whole lot of words here, but this was all that is required.

Yes PSD is a mechanism that can reduce an out of contract players trade value.

We agree!
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Totally bro, Brisbane were telling Bulldogs that with the 15th pick in the pre-season draft Dunks was theirs. Bulldogs were shivering at the thought.

Or maybe, just maybe, OOC boils down to a lot more than the PSD. I said "rarely" for a reason.
 
CaseySibosadoHOF said:
Totally bro, Brisbane were telling Bulldogs that with the 15th pick in the pre-season draft Dunks was theirs. Bulldogs were shivering at the thought.

Or maybe, just maybe, OOC boils down to a lot more than the PSD. I said "rarely" for a reason.
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Where did I say it plays a huge role in every trade?

You're using one trade then using that as a rule that applies all trades. PSD can have an impact on a trade, not DOES.. CAN.

If you spent half the amount of time reading others posts as much as you do writing encyclopaedias, you'd know that we are more or less in agreement.

I honestly don't have time (or patience) to read your thesis, dude.
 
Dom sheed pocket said:
Where did I say it plays a huge role in every trade?

You're using one trade then using that as a rule that applies all trades. PSD can have an impact on a trade, not DOES.. CAN.
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I mean, right around here you ask a question that asserts it's a predominant factor in OOC trades. I disagree. I said why I disagree. I never said anything about "every", nor did I say you did.

You also edited out a post where you once again asserted that PSD was a main factor.
Dom sheed pocket said:
I have a question for you... If PSD is so irrelevant, what is it about being out of contract that impact on trade value?
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I'm not gonna babysit you through what causation means. If my admittedly verbose posts are a bit much, consult a dictionary.
 

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If that Twomey offer is true than how can Chad turn it down

WCE won't challenge in the next 2 years

Freo won't get near that money

Chad still gets his FA opportunity in 2 years time, hell even WC might show signs of improvement by then


Very smart from Sydney too as it gives them 2 years to try and settle him and his GF into Sydney while challenging
 
freo_leo29 said:
If that Twomey offer is true than how can Chad turn it down

WCE won't challenge in the next 2 years

Freo won't get near that money

Chad still gets his FA opportunity in 2 years time, hell even WC might show signs of improvement by then


Very smart from Sydney too as it gives them 2 years to try and settle him and his GF into Sydney while challenging
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Agreed smart move by Sydney.

Might be the best scenario for all parties in the long run.
 
freo_leo29 said:
If that Twomey offer is true than how can Chad turn it down

WCE won't challenge in the next 2 years

Freo won't get near that money

Chad still gets his FA opportunity in 2 years time, hell even WC might show signs of improvement by then


Very smart from Sydney too as it gives them 2 years to try and settle him and his GF into Sydney while challenging
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The money will be huge either way and Chad is not losing anything by turning down the sydney offer and moving
Its all going to depend on where Chad wants to live IMO
 
THE_GUN said:
The money will be huge either way and Chad is not losing anything by turning down the sydney offer and moving
Its all going to depend on where Chad wants to live IMO
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Agreed. If WC offer him $1.4m a year for six to ten years the two years at Sydney isn't comparable.
 
freo_leo29 said:
If that Twomey offer is true than how can Chad turn it down

WCE won't challenge in the next 2 years

Freo won't get near that money

Chad still gets his FA opportunity in 2 years time, hell even WC might show signs of improvement by then


Very smart from Sydney too as it gives them 2 years to try and settle him and his GF into Sydney while challenging
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It makes a lot of sense from everyone.

Stay at Swans for 2 years on good money, become a free agent.

Then he can come home, Freo / Eagles can offer more cash as they don't need to give up picks.
 

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Speculation Chad Warner


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