Preview Changes: R5 2021 vs Fremantle

[Scorpus]

The funny / sad thing is that the supposedly easy, no skill involved, thing that Fogarty did this game is exactly what we could never get Jenkins to do, and which would have made him a really good player- lead at the ball carrier with your arms up, catch and convert. Thinking that understanding and timing leads does not involve craft, skill or football nous is the opinion of a numpty. It is the skill of a forward, and it's so valuable because its capable of being replicated. It's a systematic pathway to goal. This is exactly what professional sports teams want- the path way to scoring that you could do again and again.

What makes Fogarty intriguing in this regard, and what should make him valuable to us (if the club is capable of assessing and using it) is that he has a scoring range far greater than the average forward. Vader, as is his wont, completely misses the point. 'Good teams' won't defend the areas Fog scored from with more effort, because it's incredibly hard to stop lead up play if its executed properly. The best method is to get people in to plug the gaps. But look at where Fog scored from. Teams are not going to dedicate extra bodies to guarding the flanks and boundary line. Why? Because that leaves the ******* corridor for 1 on 1 match ups. If they were foolish enough to do it, you'd just take it to the bank. This is how you create space. Its a space on the ground that you absolutely can create scoring shots in.

It's the equivalent of having good three point shooters in basketball, or a burner wide out in the NFL. The skill set dramatically changes how teams can defend, and where you can zone. This is what modern sports are about: finding players with skills that counter how defence can be played.

Why do most teams not do it? It's really hard to get guys who are reliable shots from that range / angle. If you're getting people who can only convert occasionally from out there then it is lower percentage than the bomb to the square. It's rare to get guys you can bank on there. And we're lucky enough right now to have two.

The criticism (which is misguided) seems to be around two points:

1) Fogarty was gifted goals by midfielders up the ground. False. He worked hard for leads and took marks. His goals were not over the back goal square gimmies or cheap handball receives.

2) Fogarty hurts our defensive pressure. This is debatable but we are carrying at least 4 high pressure small forwards in the side with (currently) moderate to low goal output. These players are there precisely so our tall, low pressure forwards like Fogarty can be included in the side to increase scoring.

 

[Southerntakeover]

The criticism (which is misguided) seems to be around two points:

1) Fogarty was gifted goals by midfielders up the ground. False. He worked hard for leads and took marks. His goals were not over the back goal square gimmies or cheap handball receives.

2) Fogarty hurts our defensive pressure. This is debatable but we are carrying at least 4 high pressure small forwards in the side with (currently) moderate to low goal output. These players are there precisely so our tall, low pressure forwards like Fogarty can be included in the side to increase scoring.

I tend to think that people's analysis of 'pressure' often conflates it with bad entry.

When you repeatedly kick it to the advantage of defenders, as we did during the 2nd and 3rd, they will invariably get the ball out of defence easily. I'm not sure that's actually the result of bad pressure. Fogarty has shown an ability to chase and tackle during his career, and he does plenty around the contest when he doesnt get the ball just by being a unit.

 

[Scorpus]

I think the issue with Sydney was that they don't suck at football.
North ran the ball out with ease and then found ways to stuff up their forward entry - and we got the ball back and did the same.
Against not-north we'd be 5 goals down at 3/4 time. Can't really have a 2nd and 3rd like that, we were not really made to pay.

If Sydney don't suck at football and we couldn't stop their defensive scoring chains despite Fogarty not being in the side and carrying at least 4 small pressure players in the forward half... then we have serious issues regardless. That's the highest pressure forward group we've ever played (or close to it).

I think Fogarty in actually helps us. Our pressure forwards aren't very productive. They're guys like Murphy, Berry and McHenry who you'll be lucky to get a goal out of. You need them in the side to do ground level work, but you also need genuine forwards who can score and put pressure on that way. Guys that can lead up at the football and give defenders a hard time in the air without needing to run, chase and tackle. Carrying too many defensive forwards that only strive being second to the ball and causing forward half turnovers won't always work.

Because what's better than needing to chase your defender? A clean inside 50 to a forward that knows how to lead, mark and goal.

 

[BACCS]

I don’t think Kelly will go out, but would be very surprised if Frampton survives. Can’t see them accepting those middle two quarters and not change the team. Wouldn’t be surprised if Hamill is managed and Worrell debuts.

 

[Southerntakeover]

If Sydney don't suck at football and we couldn't stop their defensive scoring chains despite Fogarty not being in the side and carrying at least 4 small pressure players in the forward half... then we have serious issues regardless. That's the highest pressure forward group we've ever played (or close to it).

I think Fogarty in actually helps us. Our pressure forwards aren't very productive. They're guys like Murphy, Berry and McHenry who you'll be lucky to get a goal out of. You need them in the side to do ground level work, but you also need genuine forwards who can score and put pressure on that way. Guys that can lead up at the football and give defenders a hard time in the air without needing to run, chase and tackle. Carrying too many defensive forwards that only strive being second to the ball and causing forward half turnovers won't always work.

Because what's better than needing to chase your defender? A clean inside 50 to a forward that knows how to lead, mark and goal.

The thing about being a forward that isnt a scoring threat is that it makes it much easier for a defender to leave you, and go to the contest, or peel off to receive and feel comfortable.

Nothing puts pressure on defenders more than giving up goals. That gets in their head.

 

[dogs105]

If Sydney don't suck at football and we couldn't stop their defensive scoring chains despite Fogarty not being in the side and carrying at least 4 small pressure players in the forward half... then we have serious issues regardless. That's the highest pressure forward group we've ever played (or close to it).

I think Fogarty in actually helps us. Our pressure forwards aren't very productive. They're guys like Murphy, Berry and McHenry who you'll be lucky to get a goal out of. You need them in the side to do ground level work, but you also need genuine forwards who can score and put pressure on that way. Guys that can lead up at the football and give defenders a hard time in the air without needing to run, chase and tackle. Carrying too many defensive forwards that only strive being second to the ball and causing forward half turnovers won't always work.

Because what's better than needing to chase your defender? A clean inside 50 to a forward that knows how to lead, mark and goal.

You don't need to chase it back to the middle when the umpires are carrying it back

 

[jackster83]

I don’t think Kelly will go out, but would be very surprised if Frampton survives. Can’t see them accepting those middle two quarters and not change the team. Wouldn’t be surprised if Hamill is managed and Worrell debuts.

Murray might be ahead of Worrell in the pecking order, being the sub last week and an emergency again this week.

Would be happy to see either in the side.

 

[Southerntakeover]

The thing is, he does have plenty he can improve in his game. He's only played 25 games, and is still only 21 years old as a big man. He's been denied any continuity or confidence by a club that has refused to back him in, and that impacts upon his game.

He's not yet reading the game as well as he will when he's experienced, he hasnt worked out how to get cheapies yet (despite Vader's foolishness). He still rushes when he's at the contest, and he hasnt yet worked out how to use his body against AFL strength players to move them and command his way through a pack. Those are things that he will only learn by playing. He's not yet a spearhead- he will come and in and out of games.

Today's game wasnt about his being a finished product, it was about demonstrating that there is enough there that he can be useful and dangerous at AFL level whilst he develops. And he is. He can already be a role player.

There is absolutely no upside to writing a kid with his talents off. If we're serious about it, let him finish the year with forty plus games under his belt and see what he looks like then.

 

[Murray2503]

Frampton out for Berg or Thilthorpe.

I'd be swapping Hamill for Worrell this week too, and then Berry for Pedlar the week after, just for a break.

Would like to see the bash brothers in together but agree Berry needs a week or two off soon.

 

[Murray2503]

People need to calm down on Pedlar, he needs a good block of games in the SANFL so he can get match fit before he comes in to the AFL side. He's a special talent no doubt but he was out on his feet half way through the third yesterday

2 quarter sub? I hear ya but if he can get 10 touches and kick 3 goals in the AFL it just may win us the game. Swings and roundabouts but he does need to get fitter. I guess if he can impact the game before he fades out it may be worth it. Look forward to when he can run out a game with ease.
Freo are very quick so we need extra speed next week.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

The thing is, he does have plenty he can improve in his game. He's only played 25 games, and is still only 21 years old as a big man. He's been denied any continuity or confidence by a club that has refused to back him in, and that impacts upon his game.

He's not yet reading the game as well as he will when he's experienced, he hasnt worked out how to get cheapies yet (despite Vader's foolishness). He still rushes when he's at the contest, and he hasnt yet worked out how to use his body against AFL strength players to move them and command his way through a pack. Those are things that he will only learn by playing. He's not yet a spearhead- he will come and in and out of games.

Today's game wasnt about his being a finished product, it was about demonstrating that there is enough there that he can be useful and dangerous at AFL level whilst he develops. And he is. He can already be a role player.

There is absolutely no upside to writing a kid with his talents off. If we're serious about it, let him finish the year with forty plus games under his belt and see what he looks like then.

Remember when Phil Walsh said we need to get Hartigan to 50 games as soon as possible.

Fog has more talent in his little finger than Hartigan has in his whole body. Perhaps we should invest those games in Fog?

 

[Murray2503]

#ModraKnew



I will have to go back and watch his marks, but you can’t deny they were tricky shots and he nailed them



Excellent post.

My preferred:

Frampton out
Fog takes his spot
Worrell takes Fog’s spot and Lynch is rested *unless* Hamill needs a rest, then Worrell subs in for a Hamill rest and we bring in a mid with speed, I’d still look at Jones to take over from Lynch

Noy sure how to shoehorn Thrillthorpe into the team yet

Jones no. He ain't a footballer sadly. I watched him yesterday and he doesn't impact SANFL.

 

[Sanders]

I don’t think Kelly will go out, but would be very surprised if Frampton survives. Can’t see them accepting those middle two quarters and not change the team. Wouldn’t be surprised if Hamill is managed and Worrell debuts.

Kelly is not going out. Not next week, not next month

 

[rocket18]

If Sydney don't suck at football and we couldn't stop their defensive scoring chains despite Fogarty not being in the side and carrying at least 4 small pressure players in the forward half... then we have serious issues regardless. That's the highest pressure forward group we've ever played (or close to it).

I think Fogarty in actually helps us. Our pressure forwards aren't very productive. They're guys like Murphy, Berry and McHenry who you'll be lucky to get a goal out of. You need them in the side to do ground level work, but you also need genuine forwards who can score and put pressure on that way. Guys that can lead up at the football and give defenders a hard time in the air without needing to run, chase and tackle. Carrying too many defensive forwards that only strive being second to the ball and causing forward half turnovers won't always work.

Because what's better than needing to chase your defender? A clean inside 50 to a forward that knows how to lead, mark and goal.

If Fog plays against Sydney we probably win, certainly wouldn't have kicked 22 points with him playing.

 

[LC40]

Pressure forwards... I wouldn't mind some goal kicking forwards.

 

[Murray2503]

If Fog plays against Sydney we probably win, certainly wouldn't have kicked 22 points with him playing.

If they are going to play Fogarty they can't play Lynch as well. It's pretty simple.

One thing I noticed with Fogarty when he was fighting for a ground ball is that he needs to knock the ball out or handball it out. Fighting for a ground ball and then trying to rip it out while trying to get to your feet with players hanging off you is a waste of time and energy. I think part of his problem is that he wants to prove his strength out there but he needs to be advised to use team mates and not try and do too much. If he can bring some finesse and use some smarts out there he will be 200% more beneficial to our team.

He should be advised to watch Dustin Martin who doesn't waste any energy or time proving feats of strength against other players. Every move he makes on the footy field is to give himself more time and space. He sums up the situation quicker and better than anyone and knows his limitations.

 

[MrBarry]

There is absolutely no upside to writing a kid with his talents off. If we're serious about it, let him finish the year with forty plus games under his belt and see what he looks like then.

100%

 

[hey shorty]

Fremantle are a pretty big midfield, we got beaten up a bit.

Hately might be worth a run for someone.

Berry looks a week or 2 from a week off for Pedlar or a returning Sloane. He plays a high intensity game which will be tough to maintain as a first year player with no footy for over 12 months. We clearly like him with good reason, but don't burn him out.

 

[Bearded Clam]

We had way more trouble with rebound from defense against Sydney and in that game Fogarty wasn't playing

I had a look at the stats and there was no drop in ground level work and pressure from our forward group against North versus other teams this year. North also had relatively few score launches from defense.

Our issue with North exiting defense were our entries that basically gave them the ball directly under no pressure. Those entries are impossible to defend regardless of who is in your forward line.

This is the point I made earlier.. if you kick it either directly to, or to the great advantage of your opponents then you cant blame your forwards for not being able to keep the ball in your forward 50..

our delivery into our forward 50 for the first three quarters was pitiful..

A good majority of our kicks were perfect, lace out kicks into our forward line.. only problem was that they were straight onto the chests of blokes wearing blue and white striped jumpers..

 

[Thylacinus]

Fremantle are a pretty big midfield, we got beaten up a bit.

Hately might be worth a run for someone.

Berry looks a week or 2 from a week off for Pedlar or a returning Sloane. He plays a high intensity game which will be tough to maintain as a first year player with no footy for over 12 months. We clearly like him with good reason, but don't burn him out.

If they want to keep Fog then it may well be Hately for Berry; also Himmelberg for Frampton.

 

[1970crow]

He is injured, which the club confirmed.

He didn't train properly all week & it showed.

We need to learn that we should not be playing unfit players... particularly in rebuild mode it's just stupid.

I think it's fair to say by now that there's another important metric that needs to be met by experience levels. We've seen both Tex and Sloane return to outstanding form by ceasing to play under duress. Both have gone from fringe level performance to league elite. How is it possible that our coaching group has learned nothing from that?

 

[1970crow]

Actually a difficult week changes wise:

Out: Lynch (inj), Frampton

In: Hately, Thilthorpe

Lynch looked hampered and off this week (fair enough, toe injuries are horrible, so props for playing it out), and our inside game looked like it really suffered without Sloane, seeing how there were periods North overpowered us, so Hately comes in. Not exactly a form switch as much as I was encouraged by his game yesterday, but feels necessary.

Frampton again was a liability. Couple of nice marks and the rest was rough to the point they CD said Mackay had a bigger influence on the game. Thilthorpe again isn't in the best of nick, but really, it's as good of time as any.

Props? Selfish I'd say, played shit, as expected with injury and denied a game to another player.

 

[Golumless]

Props? Selfish I'd say, played sh*t, as expected with injury and denied a game to another player.

That's on Nick's and the medical staff for getting it wrong. Not Lynch. They adjudicated Lynch fit after all.

 

[BunjiMac]

If they want to keep Fog then it may well be Hately for Berry; also Himmelberg for Frampton.

Not sure why you would put Himmelberg in when he has perhaps been the worst performing tall in the whole squad this year.

 

[1970crow]

Fremantle are a pretty big midfield, we got beaten up a bit.

Hately might be worth a run for someone.

Berry looks a week or 2 from a week off for Pedlar or a returning Sloane. He plays a high intensity game which will be tough to maintain as a first year player with no footy for over 12 months. We clearly like him with good reason, but don't burn him out.

What I'll never understand is once a kid is gassed in their first year they are managed but still play SANFL. Why aren't they rested and rehabbed without playing for a couple of weeks and then return via the SANFL with a view to more AFL games rather than having them see out the year in the 2s.