Preview Changes: R5 2021 vs Fremantle

[Thetrader15]

Prety bloody ordinary was my take on his game, better than the week before was about the best I could say for his total game time. He really should be dominating against B grade SANFL defenders like Josh Ryan.

Keiran Lovell was B.O.G. with no player even close and along with Joel Stevens they absolutely pantsed our midfielders Hately, Jones and co., a real worry when Strachan was dominating the hit outs against WA beanpole Angus Rana.

At least we've forGodden those disastrous set ups in the AFL team this year.

 

[Vader]

Darren Jarman?

Not even close. He kicked 368.210 over his career - 63.7% accuracy.

 

[Thetrader15]

I would rather DMack in the team over Frampton.....

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

You deserve a week off for this sort of talk!

 

[Golumless]

We know that the reality is that all clubs trust the senior players to make the call as to whether they can still perform with the injury. He probably played well with worse afflictions as a 25 year old, but at his age it's time he realised. Hopefully he does the right thing this week or if he doesn't, he's dropped on form. Injured or omitted, it's his call.

Yup, the club will and every club has been burned by it over and over again.

Unfortunately, the factor that is always missed by anyone who trusts a senior player to make the call on their body is how adversely impacted they are by doing the team thing. After all, once that performance starts to decline, and in the first four weeks Lynch has shown some red flags that he's on the precipe of a steep decline*, you're only an injury away from having your career finished.

*I know he's still "number 1" in the role made up purely for him, but warning signs are: disposals, goals, marks, and meters gained have all decreased by a significant amount from 2016-17, 19. The thing that's really saving Lynch at the moment is his ball use, seeing it's the safest/best (depending on perspective) it's ever been at a cool 76.6% DE and 1.8 turnovers a game. Usually Lynch is ~ 69 % and 3.5 turnovers a game.

 

[Vader]

For the record, here's a table of the most accurate goal kickers in VFL/AFL history:
https://afltables.com/afl/stats/accuracy.html

The table has a minimum qualification of 50 scoring shots, so Fogarty doesn't qualify (he's currently on 34). Lockett comes in a #12 on the list, and is still only 3rd if you further limit qualification to players with 100+ goals. North's Nick Larkey

20

Nick Larkey

Age

26

Ht

198cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.5

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.8

4star

is #1 on the list, kicking at 77.59%.

Fogarty's limited sample size (29.5 over 25 games) is a valid point. If we ignore that, then his 85.3% accuracy is streets ahead of anyone else.

 

[crows dude]

So in thinking Dmac and Cook will be fit to play and none of our players should miss that had slight niggles from yesterdays game.

SANFL Saturday 2:10 V Eagles at Woodville
F Davis Frampton Newchurch
HF Wright Himmelberg Jackson
C Lynch Jones B Cook
HB McAsey Borlase Mackay
B Hall Merrett Latchford
Ruck Strachan Pedlar Berry
Inter
J Cook
O'Connor
Boyle
J Matthews

AFL Sunday 12:40 AO
F Rowe Thilthorpe McAdam
HF Schoeberg Walker Murphy
C Sholl Keays Seedsman
HB Hamill Murray Smith
B Brown Butts Doedee
RUCK O'Brien Hately Laird


Inter
Worrell
Fogarty
McPherson
McHenry
Kelly - Sub

 

[Crow till I die]

Yes, it's a vastly different sample size. That, I will give you.

As players, it's chalk and cheese - Lockett is a Living Legend, Fogarty is a 4th year kid who can't establish himself in the best 22. But in terms of accuracy alone, Fogarty is in a league all of his own.

Fogarty has a beautiful kicking action and could be a top player for us for years to come. But I am waiting for the ample size to be much larger before I start putting accolades on him such as being in a league of his own as a couple of off games can totally stuff his current average up. Not so with Lockett, Dunstall, Matthews etc

 

[Vader]

Fogarty has a beautiful kicking action and could be a top player for us for years to come. But I am waiting for the ample size to be much larger before I start putting accolades on him such as being in a league of his own as a couple of off games can totally stuff his current average up. Not so with Lockett, Dunstall, Matthews etc

Fogarty's limited sample size is a legitimate point.

 

[Bearded Clam]

The 2 tall forward (richmond structure) seems to be the best one that suits us. It's a matter of working out who are our two best tall forwards. Frampton is not one of them.

Walker through his current form is taking one of the spots for now. Who out of Thilthorpe, Himmelberg and Fogarty is the best option as the 2nd tall? I would be feel the club wants Thilthorpe to be the 2nd tall forward anf replace Walker as the main guy once he retires otherwise they massively stuffed up not taking McDonald. We do know that Fogarty is definitely not a midfielder so who out of Himmelberg and Fogarty is the best long term prospect?

Both players need to be given a run. I do know that playing Himmelberg in the SANFL is not helping him as he is clearly not happy about being there. I would give both players a decent run before they make any decisions to trade anyone. Then again one of one of the players may take the decision out of our hands and ask to be traded.

Playing all of Walker, Frampton, Lynch, Fogarty/Himmelberg is a recipe for disaster as the ball is walked out of our forward line. The other problem is that our smalls aren't performing so we have some major problems with our forward line at present.

The coaches need to look into whether our current setup is the best forward line that we can come up with from our entire squad? Are they missing something.

I dont see the club viewing Thilthorpe as tex’s replacement... I reacon they have Fog pencilled in for that.. and the problem they have is Tex is playing so well they cant replace him with fog just yet but they also need to squeeze fog in because his talent is just too good to ignore.

They possibly also dont want to run the risk of fog asking to be traded due to lack of opportunity. So they are trying to build some versatility into fog by getting him in the midfield mix etc so they can play him as well as tex at the same time until tex retires and fog takes the reigns.

fog cant take Framptons current spot because he cant effectively chop out in the ruck and what happens if ROB goes down in the first quarter of a game if we dont have that second ruck? (Witts/suns round 3 anyone?).. frampton is warming that spot for Thilthorpe who is just a little underdone and searching for form and consistency at the moment.

as for himmelberg.. why should he be rewarded for being dogshit and looking disinterested and lazy in the SANFL and trial matches?.. I couldnt give a shit if the lad “doesnt look happy about being in the SANFL” and a few himm fans here have been using this as a reason why he should be granted a run in the AFL side... Thats bullshit.. you dont reward a kid whos having a sulk for ****s sake. What sort of precedent does doing that set?..

i dont agree with your assessment that we have “major problems with our forward line at the moment”.. our main forward is leading the coleman ffs!.. its our delivery into our forward line, thats been hot and cold, thats the problem.

 

[Bearded Clam]

So in thinking Dmac and Cook will be fit to play and none of our players should miss that had slight niggles from yesterdays game.

SANFL Saturday 2:10 V Eagles at Woodville
F Davis Frampton Newchurch
HF Wright Himmelberg Jackson
C Lynch Jones B Cook
HB McAsey Borlase Mackay
B Hall Merrett Latchford
Ruck Strachan Pedlar Berry
Inter
J Cook
O'Connor
Boyle
J Matthews

AFL Sunday 12:40 AO
F Rowe Thilthorpe McAdam
HF Schoeberg Walker Murphy
C Sholl Keays Seedsman
HB Hamill Murray Smith
B Brown Butts Doedee
RUCK O'Brien Hately Laird


Inter
Worrell
Fogarty
McPherson
McHenry
Kelly - Sub

Yeah... i’d be very happy to see this happen.

i think Berry should be given another week but at the same time I could live with it.. as long as his replacement is another youngster like Hately.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Not even close. He kicked 368.210 over his career - 63.7% accuracy.

That stat isn’t the be all and end all you’re making it out to be. Jarman was one of the most clutch kicks for goal of all time.

Michael Jordan isn’t even in the top 150 of all time for FG%, but in the history of the game whose hands would you want the ball in for your life?

 

[Crow till I die]

That stat isn’t the be all and end all you’re making it out to be. Jarman was one of the most clutch kicks for goal of all time.

Michael Jordan isn’t even in the top 150 of all time for FG%, but in the history of the game whose hands would you want the ball in for your life?

Shaq as he is just about to dunk

 

[skam85]

LOL

Maybe you never saw Tony Lockett play?

There's never been anyone as good as Lockett at kicking the goal in pressure situations and that includes players like Peter Hudson, Jason Dunstall and Michael Roach to name some.

I'd be surprised if he saw any AFL player play going by the calls he makes.

 

[relapse]

LOL

Maybe you never saw Tony Lockett play?

There's never been anyone as good as Lockett at kicking the goal in pressure situations and that includes players like Peter Hudson, Jason Dunstall and Michael Roach to name some.

Most football experts also credit Lockett with having the perfect kicking action which clearly added to why he was so deadly.

Definitely the best kick for goal I've ever seen

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Most football experts also credit Lockett with having the perfect kicking action which clearly added to why he was so deadly.

Definitely the best kick for goal I've ever seen

I used to hate seeing the ball in the hands off Paul Hudson. He seemed to slot them from everywhere.

 

[Crow till I die]

Most football experts also credit Lockett with having the perfect kicking action which clearly added to why he was so deadly.

Definitely the best kick for goal I've ever seen

and on the flipside nobody could ever accuse this fella of having such a goal kicking action

 

[FR0GGY]

For the record, here's a table of the most accurate goal kickers in VFL/AFL history:
https://afltables.com/afl/stats/accuracy.html

The table has a minimum qualification of 50 scoring shots, so Fogarty doesn't qualify (he's currently on 34). Lockett comes in a #12 on the list, and is still only 3rd if you further limit qualification to players with 100+ goals. North's Nick Larkey is #1 on the list, kicking at 77.59%.

Fogarty's limited sample size (29.5 over 25 games) is a valid point. If we ignore that, then his 85.3% accuracy is streets ahead of anyone else.

Surprised porpoise didn’t make the list for accuracy in a season.
Didn’t he kick 30 odd goals in a row at some stage?

 

[Vader]

Surprised porpoise didn’t make the list for accuracy in a season.
Didn’t he kick 30 odd goals in a row at some stage?

He did have that streak, but he wasn't that accurate over the length of his career. He finished with 181.100 (64.4%).

Looking at his stats table, he kicked 18.0 from R22 2008 to R6 2009. From memory the streak ended at 19, so it may have started in R21 2008 (with his last score for the game being a goal) or ended in R7 2009 (with his first score being a goal).

Even in his golden season of 2009, when the bulk of the streak took place, he finished with 57.20 (74.0%), which isn't enough to see him on the honour board even for a single season.

Source: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/J/Jason_Porplyzia.html

This is why CTID is quite correct in pointing out Fogarty's small sample size. If Porps can kick 19.0 at one stage, and still end up at only 64.4%, then it's quite possible that Fogarty's golden run could end and his percentage decrease. That said, Fog's accuracy has been sustained over 3 years (albeit with limited games in each year).

 

[Vader]

Looking at those accuracy stats, and there's one oddity which just leapt out at me.

If you look at the Game Kicking Percents down the bottom, Peter McKenna's name features on both lists. In one game he kicked 11.0 vs North Melbourne, in another he kicked 1.10 vs Hawthorn. Now that's some swings and roundabouts!

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/accuracy.html

 

[skam85]

and on the flipside nobody could ever accuse this fella of having such a goal kicking action

View attachment 1100609

Skip to 0:56... sheer brilliance

Cult Figures: Five-goal Gill on fire at the Dome, 2008

Adelaide forward Nick Gill kicks five of his 21 career goals in one half against Essendon

www.afl.com.au

 

[CharlieCrow]

Still concerned at having Murphy, McHenry and Rowe in the same side, let alone same forward line. Have all three played a great game in the same game. I think at least one should go this week.

 

[Apsaalooke]

For the record, here's a table of the most accurate goal kickers in VFL/AFL history:
https://afltables.com/afl/stats/accuracy.html

The table has a minimum qualification of 50 scoring shots, so Fogarty doesn't qualify (he's currently on 34). Lockett comes in a #12 on the list, and is still only 3rd if you further limit qualification to players with 100+ goals. North's Nick Larkey is #1 on the list, kicking at 77.59%.

Fogarty's limited sample size (29.5 over 25 games) is a valid point. If we ignore that, then his 85.3% accuracy is streets ahead of anyone else.

Interesting that Tex with 461.298 at 60.7% doesn't even get close to the top 37 they list down to Luke Breust at 68.4%.
Taylor is way behind goal kicking legends such as Andy Otten at 69.09% and Barnaby French at 72.73%

 

[Vader]

Interesting that Tex with 461.298 at 60.7% doesn't even get close to the top 37 they list down to Luke Breust at 68.4%.
Taylor is way behind goal kicking legends such as Andy Otten at 69.09% and Barnaby French at 72.73%

Walker creates a lot more opportunities. They were more accurate with the comparatively limited opportunities they had. The table has a minimum qualification of 50 shots on goal, so those accuracies were sustained over a reasonable period.

 

[Murray2503]

I dont see the club viewing Thilthorpe as tex’s replacement... I reacon they have Fog pencilled in for that.. and the problem they have is Tex is playing so well they cant replace him with fog just yet but they also need to squeeze fog in because his talent is just too good to ignore.

They possibly also dont want to run the risk of fog asking to be traded due to lack of opportunity. So they are trying to build some versatility into fog by getting him in the midfield mix etc so they can play him as well as tex at the same time until tex retires and fog takes the reigns.

fog cant take Framptons current spot because he cant effectively chop out in the ruck and what happens if ROB goes down in the first quarter of a game if we dont have that second ruck? (Witts/suns round 3 anyone?).. frampton is warming that spot for Thilthorpe who is just a little underdone and searching for form and consistency at the moment.

as for himmelberg.. why should he be rewarded for being dogshit and looking disinterested and lazy in the SANFL and trial matches?.. I couldnt give a sh*t if the lad “doesnt look happy about being in the SANFL” and a few himm fans here have been using this as a reason why he should be granted a run in the AFL side... Thats bullshit.. you dont reward a kid whos having a sulk for fu**s sake. What sort of precedent does doing that set?..

i dont agree with your assessment that we have “major problems with our forward line at the moment”.. our main forward is leading the coleman ffs!.. its our delivery into our forward line, thats been hot and cold, thats the problem.

We haven't played any decent sides yet. Let's see how the forward line goes against the Bulldogs, Eagles, Powaa, Tigers, Melbourne. If the opposition cuts Tex out we aren't left with much else. I haven't been overly happy with goal output of Murphy, Rowe, McHenry. McAdam has been mostly quiet but has kicked some junk time goals to improve his output. We have improved on last year but let's not get ahead of ourselves. We are still a bottom 4 club at present but there are some good signs with the kids. This week will be a good test for our forward line.

 

[hey shorty]

Still concerned at having Murphy, McHenry and Rowe in the same side, let alone same forward line. Have all three played a great game in the same game. I think at least one should go this week.

Its a somewhat valid point, but theyre all doing their bit.

The other thing is who do you bring in ?? Pedlar is a week or 2 away, Sloane a bit more and he's not playing a similar role. These guys are the only small forwards we have outside of Newchurch who has more pace and dash than all 3 of them but cant run out a full game at SANFL level and is about as good defensively as I would be.

He'll get his chance but for now its those 3.