Prediction Changes Swans V Dogs 3.20pm Sunday 28/7/24

[Foxman98]

To my eye, Buku's kicking had been a lot better this year, not brilliant but certainly solid.

I know these stats only tell a small part of the tale, but according to footywire, his disposal efficiency is elite at 87.3%.

For players who have played 10 games or more this year, he is ranked #1 at Dogs and #5 in the league.

He's only averaging 10 disposals a game and 1.7 turnovers he's playing with in his limitations a lot more but is still a liability trying to switch or move the ball quicker

 

[fargy]

If Jones plays, either Khamis or Coffield will be very unlucky. No way I’d keep both in. Our small backs have been excellent as well.
Garcia, & to a lesser extent Daniel are knocking on the door. Feel McNeil needs to stay in with his last two weeks. Has been good outside of the finishing.
Vandermeer is the sprinting elephant in the room. He didn’t provide anything on Saturday night, his pressure wasn’t there. Macrae has been decent prior to being sub.

Think it’s:
Jones for Coffield (although I think Coffield will replace Khamis at some point in the remaining matches)
Macrae to the field, Vandermeer sub.

Tough MC this week, although a great position for the club. Players in form throughout the club.

 

[bobs head soup]

The more I look at Sydney's forward line up, I wonder if the following is doable?;

McDonald - Jones
McLean - Lobb
Amartey - Khamis
Hayward - Coffield

 

[ScragCity]

Kick efficiency over careers

Khamis - 2024 84%, 2023 33%, 2022 65% 2021 57% Career Average 59%
Coffield - 2024 77% 2021 78% 2020 78% 2019 72% 2018 79% Career average 76.9%

Brother, this is an horrendously bad analysis. Khamis played a single game in 2023 and you're weighting that single game at 33% the same as 13 games at 84% in 2023.

 

[willofwest]

Jones - Coffield.

VDM - Baker.

Macrae - McNeil. Sub.

I’ve gone.

Jones - Buku
VDM - Garcia
McNeil and Macrae as sub

 

[Next Waiting]

I think if Macrae starts it might be for Sanders to be sub.
Jones for Coffield.
That's it.
Coffield unlucky and Sanders to an extent although a first year player slogging it out in those conditions may not recover as well as the more seasoned.
We have to think about Melbourne off a 5 day turn around against the Swans.
Garcia might get his chance then, plus a couple of others.

 

[Foxman98]

Brother, this is an horrendously bad analysis. Khamis played a single game in 2023 and you're weighting that single game at 33% the same as 13 games at 84% in 2023.

How so Scrag,

Coffield has been in the 70s his whole career Buku until this year hadn't been above 65 in half the games

 

[stefoid]

kicking efficiency is a pretty poor stat to hang your hat on because the difficulty of the kick isnt taken into account.

if you want to choose stats, go with meters gained and score involvements to see who the good kicks are.

 

[jdz101]

kicking efficiency is a pretty poor stat to hang your hat on because the difficulty of the kick isnt taken into account.

if you want to choose stats, go with meters gained and score involvements to see who the good kicks are.

Bont with a worse disp eff % than cripps this year for example.

We all know who the better kick is.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I think Buku 's potential ceiling is a lot higher than Coffield. Buku has him in athletic attributes vertical leap and pace. Coffield has him for footy smarts at present. Buku can improve his footy smarts with experience. Coffield will never have the leap or pace of Buku.

My choice is Buku but whoever misses is stiff. It will get an even harder decision when JOD is fit. You got to pay credit to Rory Lobb

7

Rory Lobb

Age

31

Ht

207cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

0.9

4star

D

11.3

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.3

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.6

3star

who has gone pass all of them and has the additional benefit of being tall.

 

[bobs head soup]

kicking efficiency is a pretty poor stat to hang your hat on because the difficulty of the kick isnt taken into account.

if you want to choose stats, go with meters gained and score involvements to see who the good kicks are.

All stats need to be taken into context. Kicking the ball 50 metres directly to the opposition 10 times will give you great metres gained but it'd be disastrous kicking.

 

[Mojorisin]

I think Buku 's potential ceiling is a lot higher than Coffield. Buku has him in athletic attributes vertical leap and pace. Coffield has him for footy smarts at present. Buku can improve his footy smarts with experience. Coffield will never have the leap or pace of Buku.

My choice is Buku but whoever misses is stiff. It will get an even harder decision when JOD is fit. You got to pay credit to Rory Lobb who has gone pass all of them and has the additional benefit of being tall.

My biggest issues with Khamis are agility (he has straight line speed but turns like a key defender) and his ability to switch between high balls and ground balls (he is fine on the ground if he is expecting it).
Whilst they're both technically third tall hight Khamis and Coffield are extremely different players and complement each other nicely, however it remains to be seen if the can both function beside two genuine key defenders.

All in all I think Coffield has the higher ceiling (he had one great year at Saints before injuries) but could see arguments for both given what the team requires at the time. I'd be trying to match Coffield up on the Fritsch/Hayward types and Khamis more beside lead up forwards like Langford.

 

[Dog 36]

Papley Rampe out

Rowbottom Hayward will play as will Mills

 

[Doggy]

Papley Rampe out

Rowbottom Hayward will play as will Mills

Did say Rowbottom would play last night.

It's stupid because he has a hairline fracture in his cheekbone but they're desperate to beat us

 

[bobs head soup]

Did say Rowbottom would play last night.

It's stupid because he has a hairline fracture in his cheekbone but they're desperate to beat us

Makes me nervous. Imagine the brouhaha if somebody contacts that fracture. Swans nuffies will go berserk.

 

[Doggy]

Makes me nervous. Imagine the brouhaha if somebody contacts that fracture. Swans nuffies will go berserk.

You know it will happen. He's an in and under midfielder.

They're idiots

 

[dergert]

Coffield is the weakest link down back at the moment. Jones to replace him hopefully.

 

[dergert]

This week will be a huge test for Lobb. Enough exposed form for Longmire to come up with some plan.
We need Jones back.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Lids off if we knock of the Swans

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Guilty as charged. After the Port game I thought we were done. I was sick of getting my hopes up and then getting them deflated. Jones looked like he was out for a while and there were doubts on Cody's fitness. How things have changed in a matter of couple weeks. I should remind myself it is as never good as seems or as bad it looks.

However, we now go into the swans game with high hopes, the return of Jones and a confident team. Besides the improved team attitude I think you can pinpoint the following players who have made a big difference.

Rory gone from fringe forward to star backman
Cody got back from injury and gives the forward line spark and spunk
Red Got back from concussion and gives the midfield the speed class it needs
JUH Found the work effort to go with class and skill
West Had a good season but was immense against the blues
Dale Ditto


Keep it going Boys.

 

[stefoid]

All stats need to be taken into context. Kicking the ball 50 metres directly to the opposition 10 times will give you great metres gained but it'd be disastrous kicking.

whether the opposition marks it or not, its still an 'easy' kick. But in the grand scheme of things, the player with the higher MG is trying harder kicks. Combined with SI which is more of a quality measurement - are their disposals resulting in shots on goal. Players with low MG are handballing and kicking sideways/backwards.

Sanders MG is very low for a mid, for example.

 

[BEaston]

How so Scrag,

Coffield has been in the 70s his whole career Buku until this year hadn't been above 65 in half the games

He explained how. You're using each year as one data point in the average, ignoring the number of games played in each year.

His true career average is 79.2%

Coffield's is 82%

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

The more I look at Sydney's forward line up, I wonder if the following is doable?;

McDonald - Jones
McLean - Lobb
Amartey - Khamis
Hayward - Coffield

Plus Heeney who is a very good mark.

 

[Mofra]

Plus Heeney who is a very good mark.

I'm far more worried about Heeney than any of their talls. Amarty kicked 9 in Adelaide and hasn't fired a shot since.

 

[Doggy]

I'm far more worried about Heeney than any of their talls. Amarty kicked 9 in Adelaide and hasn't fired a shot since.

He's shit