Preview Changes vs Bombers + Preview

[Tibbs]

Dunno, I reckon us losing to Freo by 30+ is a was big surprise, especially us getting belted in the clearances as we did. Dont think many saw that coming, even if the game was at Optus.

But i think Port is in a different league to us and i dont think they will fall into other teams post bye form, just too good across the Park.

We have a small chance to make it a game but if we fall away id expect Port to put us in the dirt. Anything short of a 4Q effort and we will get toasted.

Why is that so surprising? You have a couple of ace midfielders, and average rucks. They have some ripper midfielders, and two of the best rucks going around. Jackson was always going to click at some point, and the game was played in the West.

I wasnt surprised by their win at all!

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Why is that so surprising? You have a couple of ace midfielders, and average rucks. They have some ripper midfielders, and two of the best rucks going around. Jackson was always going to click at some point, and the game was played in the West.

I wasnt surprised by their win at all!

Didn't say the loss was surprising per say, but losing by 30 to a 13th placed team especially in the manner we did was. Look at the stats - pretty surprising IMO.

Freo only Avg 4 more clearances a game than us but in that specific game had 12 more than us, and then on top of that they kicked something like 6 goals from clearances alone. Not sure how that isn't a suspiring stat, at least statistically.

Was one of if not the worst game of year for us i reckon. Not sure how much the bye played into it.

I suspect though Port won't have the bye impact others have faced. Solid across the park.

 

[Lefti93]

Don's at the G feels so weird.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

 

[Tibbs]

Come to the footy kids .... Or I will rip your effing arms off!!!!

 

[Marmozet]

We only just got over the line against them at home.

Would have beaten them convincingly if we kicked straight.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

The bye team playing a non bye team is a thing. Even if the non bye team was the favourite, they have won by a lot more than expected.

7 bye teams have lost away from home and 1 has lost at home against non bye teams. The other 4 bye teams have played each other.

Majority of the games were relatively evenly balanced. WCE were always going to loose against Sydney at the SCG, just that they got spanked even more than expected, and Brisbane losing to Hawthorn despite their poor record at the MCG was still a surprise. Betting was Brisbane $1.28 and the line was 22.5pts

Freo were a bit more than favourites to win at home against Richmond, but didn't win. Freo were $1.68 and the line was 15.5pts, Freo had won 4 in a row before their bye and Richmond had finally won a game after Dimma stood down the week before the game. Richmond had won 15pts.

Of the other 5 games the win/loss was pretty much as expected but some of the losses were were greater than expected.

In the Port v Geelong game, Geelong started like a train, but died and didnt give a yelp against Port in the last quarter. The line betting was +8.5 and Port were $1.63. Gold Coast were poor against Carlton, capitulated after 1/4 time and lost by 10 goals when the line in betting was +7.5pts and GC were $2.30.

The next weekend

Essendon loss was expected in Perth, they were $2.30, the line was +10.5pts and the margin was 32pts.
Hawks loss was expected on the GC, were $5.30, the line was +30.5 but they capitulated the 2nd half and lost by 10 goals
Melbourne was expected to lose at Kardinia Park $2.15, the line was +2.5pts and it was a close game with a 15pt loss.
West Coast v Sydney has been covered.
Adelaide played Collingwood - 2 bye teams away from home and it was the closest game involving bye teams. The Stk v Sydney game in Rd 13 was the other game involving two teams coming off the bye, the margin of 14pts was the second closest of the games involving bye teams.

So the bye vs non bye games has caused a couple of upsets and the majority of bye teams have performed worse than expected.

Port are $1.52 and the line is +11.5. I would be more confident if the game was at Docklands even though its is Essendon's home ground. The MCG should suit us, but we have a so so record there.

I will watch the remaining results closely. These are the bye teams vs non bye teams this round and the odds.

Home
$1.43 Bulldogs v Freo $2.83 +

Away
$1.36 Briz v Richmond $3.16 +19.5
$2.55 Ess v Port $1.52 +11.5
$1.10 Adel v North $7.00 +40.5
$3.37 Haw v Carlton $1.33 at MCG + 19.5
$1.35 Melb v GWS $3.25 +19.5

Bulldogs at home should break the hoodoo. Port will give it a good shake, I think Carlton game is a lot closer and reckon the other 3 bye team games, the bye teams will loose as per the odds.

The bye teams will probably be most affected by a slow start, or if they get behind by a few goals in the 2nd half, drop their bundle and loose by more than expected.

 

[backtozero]

We only just got over the line against them at home.

....after kicking 12 goals and 20 behinds.

Not sure why you wouldn't think that was an important detail.

 

[davo999]

I think post the bye must be a bit like going back to work after Easter or a long weekend, just hard to get back in the rhythm on the first day back you’ve been too relaxed . .
How you guard against it Im not sure .but it does seem to be a thing

 

[MrChow]

Boys will love the challenge of playing at the MCG, after a bye (against the odds) and against a reasonable side.

Can’t wait for this one…

 

[manureid]

....after kicking 12 goals and 20 behinds.

Not sure why you wouldn't think that was an important detail.

Good thing we will never be inaccurate again I guess.

 

[Festerz]

I think post the bye must be a bit like going back to work after Easter or a long weekend, just hard to get back in the rhythm on the first day back you’ve been too relaxed . .
How you guard against it Im not sure .but it does seem to be a thing

I'm told they looked very sharp at competitive game training today if that counts for anything, especially the transition out of defence stuff. Burton esp so hopefully he's out of that form slump.

 

[Steve Dore]

....after kicking 12 goals and 20 behinds.

Not sure why you wouldn't think that was an important detail.

It's not as if inaccurate goal kicking ever happens for us.

 

[backtozero]

It's not as if inaccurate goal kicking ever happens for us.

Still doesn't mean we weren't absolutely dominant in general play.

 

[Coobk001]

We only just got over the line against them at home.

Because they jumped us early and despite 10 extra shots and an i50 domination we never put them away.

If we stay with them early, we will have no excuses not to win.

We're due a bad day at the office though, and this as another of those tricky away games has potential to be that. I certainly don't go in confident with this team, but we know our best will win and there's really no excuse in my opinion other than a bad day out.

 

[davo999]

Wonder if anyone will find Dawson tooth

 

[MALTSY]

Didn't say the loss was surprising per say, but losing by 30 to a 13th placed team especially in the manner we did was. Look at the stats - pretty surprising IMO.

Freo only Avg 4 more clearances a game than us but in that specific game had 12 more than us, and then on top of that they kicked something like 6 goals from clearances alone. Not sure how that isn't a suspiring stat, at least statistically.

Was one of if not the worst game of year for us i reckon. Not sure how much the bye played into it.

I suspect though Port won't have the bye impact others have faced. Solid across the park.

My brother would agree with you. Big freo fan but gave them little hope against the bombers.
That said, I think we will win comfortably this weekend.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

My brother would agree with you. Big freo fan but gave them little hope against the bombers.
That said, I think we will win comfortably this weekend.

yeah id reckon so

Port are just primed - bombers not there yet but promising for the young list we have

last time we played port should have won by 30+ pretty easily, but converting let you down.

 

[davesnothere]

Watching the replay of the Geelong game last night. 1st 1/4 and halfway through the 2nd 1/4 the commentators were making a fairly strong case for Geelong being fresh and on top of the ground after the bye and Port looking fatigued and needing a break.

Personally I don't buy into it disadvantaging a side. You look at finals you want to win the first one to get the weeks break. Same deal.


Sidenote Sinn does some pretty good things I didn't pick up on before. They can send him back to the sanfl but if they don't I wouldn't be surprised. There is something there.

 

[Windy Cindy]

I'm nervous as about this game.

i wanna see that we have come back off the bye just as hungry as we left.

whilst I'm back on board as a believer, maybe its just the recent history, but i am worried we will revert back to old habits.

I want us to make a statement on Saturday night, that we are the best side in the comp

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Based on the training reports in the paper it sounds like Bonner in for Sinn.

Not happy with this. Sinn provides just as much with infinitely more upside.

Probably between Sinn and Narkle for sub.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RangaInTeal]

Come to the footy kids .... Or I will rip your effing arms off!!!!


View attachment 1723546

Wasn’t he knobbing a 17 year old or something, or is this rumour pedalled while leaving the Dogs?

 

[Visenfest]

Wonder if anyone will find Dawson tooth

Not sure about that, but I’m worried someone will do a knee slipping on Keays’ turds.

 

[Playthekids76]

Based on the training reports in the paper it sounds like Bonner in for Sinn.

Not happy with this. Sinn provides just as much with infinitely more upside.

Probably between Sinn and Narkle for sub.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

You obviously haven't watched his last 2 games then with comments like this. Not up to it!!

 

[Rogue Robot]

We could be playing west coast at home and you all would still say "I'm nervous about this game" lmao. We'll win comfortably.