Preview Changes vs Giants RD 24 - Huge game @ Mars Stadium - Sun 25 Aug 12:30

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Thought O'Donnell was excellent today. I have more faith in him to stand up in a final than buku. If English is available, I'd drop buku push lobb back.

Other change is gags out for one of Garcia, sanders or harmes. Gags disposals and how long he takes to dispose of the ball I fear will get exposed in high pressure games like next week.
I hope the match committee sees it that way.
 
Early weather reports, 17 degrees with scattered showers

In Ballarat in winter...that's shorts and t shirt weather.

No messing with the line up. Maybe Harmes (physicality) and English in, but wouldn't be disappointed with no changes. Khamis does need a spell though.
 

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I thought we overpayed at the trade table for Lobb, but right now it's looking like I was wrong and he was a good pick up.
I agree a bit, but the hgreat stuff with Lobb is that there's a very, very short supply of mobile, agile, non-ruck 200+cm players who have some level of skill other than "be tall" that is the reason every team tries to convert a basketballer or an American or whatever, is that, what is an overpay when the alternative is investing resources into finding that tall unicorn for them only to never make AFL level or clog up a list spot?

I'd rather err on the side of overpaying and having a too-tall list (even though he's a capable, gets-a-game-in-an-average-team) player, than be struggling for talls.

I will always point to Melbourne recruiting Austin Bradtke as a Cat B rookie. I get that he was outside the salary cap with zero draft investment, but he still was a player that they gave VFL minutes to, used up the time of their development staff, because in theory he was one of these 200+cm unicorns as a player who was an ex-basketballer, could jump, run the 10km a game that's required of a modern player, had some sort of spacial awareness and ability to use hand-eye coordination.

The issue is that he had no football skill whatsoever, and was so far off the pace that the fact that he was given so much time proves how desperate that Melbourne are to have these 200+cm utility types in their team.

He was basically useless in two years at VFL level and rose to the dizzying heights of 10 touches a game in the VFL in this this year (while everyone agreed he offered zero value to the team whatsoever).

That's why Lobb has value.
 
JOD is clearly ahead of Khamis and I feel the coaches agree. JOD has had a very interrupted year so they wanted to give him a couple of consistent performances in the VFL before a call up.

Skilset wise he’s a very good 3rd defender at the moment. His pace & skills make it easy to carry him in the backline and play on medium types alongside the talls.

Khamis will be straight out of the side as soon as English is healthy.
 
Has he had any games yet since his injury?
He's had a couple of VFL games. Played OK in his first game back. Don't know about the recent game, I didn't watch it.

Checked the stats: 1 goal, 4 tackles, 26 disposals. Alex Keath looked good on the stats.
 
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Still trying to get my head around the fact that if we win this we could finish as high as 4th but if we loose we can miss the 8 all together.

What a season
 
Looks like it could be a balmy 19 degrees for Ballarat and fairly windy any rain will be later in the day. Hope we win but if we lose the train on the way back will be shaking with nervous bulldogs supporters tuning in on the blues v saints game.
A win would be amazing, I really don’t want to feel like absolute shit for hours whilst the other games play out.
 

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I can almost guarantee there'll be no changes, which is probably a good move.

In terms of my preferences, I would really like to get Harmes into the side. I think he'd be so valuable against GWS' bigger bodies and harder running, and he is the dream candidate to run with / body Whitfield if he takes over.

In terms of outs, I really don't trust Khamis. He deserves credit for turning his awful first quarter around, but at the same time, this is part of a consistent pattern of him really struggling whenever we concede centre clearances and coming good when we're well on top. That's not really helpful in more competitive games. He is going to get isolated in those games and unfortunately he just cannot function in 1v1s.

That said, he allows Freijah to play more freely, which is probably of net benefit. So I favour keeping him in until English gets back, at which time we have Lobb back and JOD to take Khamis' position.

Anybody else going out of the side would be really stiff, but for me it's probably Gallagher. They play similar roles, Gags only managed ~70% TOG, and I just have a little more faith in Harmes' defensive chops and ball use at this stage, in a must-win game.

FB: Khamis - Jones - Duryea
HB: Dale - JOD - Daniel

C: Williams - Bontempelli - Bramble

HF: West - Naughton - Harmes
FF: Weightman - JUH - Darcy

R: Lobb - Liberatore - Treloar

I: Macrae - Freijah - Vandermeer - Richards
S: McNeil

He will absolutely terrifies me in a big final, feel like he would get exposed badly. Still gets lost with his positioning and hope if we are there, he isn't.
 
Last year I drove home from Ballarat fuming after losing to GWS by a kick.

The year before I drove home from Ballarat fuming after losing to the Crows by a point.

90 minutes is a bloody long drive after a shattering loss.

Third time lucky ........!
Don't go.....Please!!
 
Quietly confident about this one, simply because GWS have just not actually been that good and wins belies the fact that they've been at best roughly as evenly as good as a bunch of other mid-table teams in recent weeks.

Their win (at home) against Freo was the first time they've had more than 2 more scores than the opposition going back to round 14.

Their overall xScore net margin is actually in the negatives this season (they're a below average team) with their two biggest wins being their second and third game for the year vs. North and West Coast. Their 5-0 start was pushed upb y other wins against GC and WC.

Since round 6, with a bit of a harder draw given that they've played mainly finals quality teams since then, they've scored 131 fewer expected scores than the opposition.

They're not a top 4 team quality even though they're in the top 4 simply because they've had randomly good goalkicking in games where that's gotten them over the line, including being the worse team other than goalkicking wins over Melbourne, GC, and incredibly, Richmond since round 18.
 
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Quietly confident about this one, simply because GWS have just not actually been that good and wins belies the fact that they've been at best roughly as evenly as good as a bunch of other mid-table teams in recent weeks.

Their win (at home) against Freo was the first time they've had more than 2 more scores than the opposition going back to round 14.

Their overall xScore net margin is actually in the negatives this season (they're a below average team) with their two biggest wins being their second and third game for the year vs. North and West Coast. Their 5-0 start was pushed upb y other wins against GC and WC.

Since round 6, with a bit of a harder draw given that they've played mainly finals quality teams since then, they've scored 131 fewer expected scores than they have.

They're not a top 4 team quality even though they're in the top 4 simply because they've had randomly good goalkicking in games where that's gotten them over the line, including being the worse team other than goalkicking wins over Melbourne, GC, and incredibly, Richmond since round 18.
I’m very nervous about it.

Because……..Bulldogs🤷‍♂️
 

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Preview Changes vs Giants RD 24 - Huge game @ Mars Stadium - Sun 25 Aug 12:30

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