Preview Changes vs Giants RD 24 - Huge game @ Mars Stadium - Sun 25 Aug 12:30

[threenewpadlocks]

Geelong in particular has a fairly easy draw. Seems to be a recurring theme with them.

I'm not sure about the others

Try telling a Geelong fan that they have a unique home ground advantage (ground size and crowd domination at home but ground familiarity and reasonable supported crowds in Melbourne) and they'll go on about how that's not actually true or travel or whatever.

Either they'll deny it, deny that it makes a difference (some weird stat like they didn't win any game at home by less than a goal or whatever when that's not how these things work) or argue that it's all fine because they don't play home finals in Geelong as that somehow matters.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

I often sit in the medallion club in the same bay as the players and have never seen him. Obviously with his profile it would be a little difficult, so if he is at games it would likely be in a box somewhere, but I don't believe he's been to a game for quite a while.

I think we need to acknowledge that Bailey is a fierce competitor, and playing, training and being involved with footy means A LOT to him, so whilst it's hard to excuse not appearing at club organised events, him not attending games doesn't really phase me.

He always attracts a lot of attention wherever he goes, probably more than is healthy for the club as a whole. Speculation about him is high enough. If he was always around the club, he would be continually focussed on, by the cameras at games, by supporters who would be shouting questions, taking photos, and distracting attention from the main group.

The sooner he signs - somewhere - the better for himself and everyone else. Who is advising this behaviour?

 

[Prince Imperial]

Try telling a Geelong fan that they have a unique home ground advantage (ground size and crowd domination at home but ground familiarity and reasonable supported crowds in Melbourne) and they'll go on about how that's not actually true or travel or whatever.

Either they'll deny it, deny that it makes a difference (some weird stat like they didn't win any game at home by less than a goal or whatever when that's not how these things work) or argue that it's all fine because they don't play home finals in Geelong as that somehow matters.

Geelong have probably the best draw each year in the AFL. Nine home matches on their own home ground coupled with six matches at the MCG where the GF and all Victorian finals are played.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Geelong in particular has a fairly easy draw. Seems to be a recurring theme with them.

I'm not sure about the others

Glad someone else has noticed that, someone looks after them at HQ.

 

[Doggy]

Glad someone else has noticed that, someone looks after them at HQ.

Isn't Steve Hocking at the AFL

 

[JohnnySteel]

Poulter in to the wing for West (with McNeil playing more forward to replace West as Bev mentioned).

The it’ll have to be Khamis out for English if fit, Lobb back with Jones and JOD.

Gallagher - SUB

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[Libbaaaa]

Geelong have probably the best draw each year in the AFL. Nine home matches on their own home ground coupled with six matches at the MCG where the GF and all Victorian finals are played.

Best part of their draw is getting an home game every single year in the last round at Kardinia. Last time they didn’t was in 2011 and they had to go to the MCG for that one. In fact the last time they played interstate in the last round (not counting 2020) was 2007.

Anyway good changes and giving Tim every chance to play is the smart thing to do.

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

Does Bailey Smith come to Dogs games? I can't remember seeing a shot of him in the crowd or in the rooms. I've probably just missed him because I don't tend to watch the after game guff.

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He’s posted pics of himself in a box this season on instagram.

 

[JTCWBFC]

Be great if we could engineer Caleb taking the ball inside 50 a few times per game like last week.

 

[ScottyDogg]

Who do we think will make up the interchange + sub

 

[ScottyDogg]

I’m not sold on any of Gallagher, Daniel or Macrae

 

[RWnBluey]

With showers and thunderstorms forecast during the match I wouldn’t be overly worried if English misses. Garcia coming back in would be ideal for the conditions. He’s hard as nails.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Showers and thunderstorms, eh? The few Ballarat games it's rained in the past, actual attendance hasn't matched ticket sales, there's a small stay-dry-at-home impact, but whether that's mostly travellers from Melbourne or locals is hard to say. I suspect how it looks Sunday morning may deter a few if the current forecast is correct.
Personally I'll have to forego the mankini and concede to shorts and polo...

 

[Scotch N Coke Monatore]

Stoked with English in. The key to stopping GWS is shutting down Hogan, and we'll need both Jones and Lobb to get it done.

Nah, it is in the midfield. Cut off the supply. That is how the Crows beat us. Midfield dominance.

 

[ossie_21]

Who do we think will make up the interchange + sub

View attachment 2088003

Daniel, Macrae, Khamis, O’Donnell, Garcia (sub)

If we go for a bit more run, Khamis out for Poulter or Gallagher (my preference in that order)

 

[cleveland]

 

[go the dogs]

If English Plays Buku (preference) or O'Donnell have to be out way to big otherwise

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

It's also Bevo's birthday today, 54 years young.

 

[bigdog54]

GWS have also been very fortuitous playing some very middling footy against bad teams in recent weeks.

They've won 7 in a row, but incredibly, four of those games they were the weaker team according to expected score.
Even their most recent lost to Adelaide by 16 points was a 31-point expected score loss.
Compare our own 39-point loss to Adelaide which was "only" a 6-point expected score loss.

Not a single one of our wins would have been overturned on expected scores this season, where again, four of GWS's seven wins in their win streaks would have likely been losses if both teams kicked to league average accuracy.

Just as an aside I find it very annoying this year that there's every chance that only one of the four form/best teams on the season (Port) will actually make top 4. It might make the finals series more exciting - one of us, Hawks, Brisbane have to get knocked out in the first week but whicever two of those teams win through to week 2 is a very good chance of winning the flag - but as a person that's interested in fairness I can't cop Sydney, Geelong, GWS having a very reasonable chance of winning the flag. It feels like there's more unfair, lucky high ladder positions this year than there are in most.

I hope you're right but, I think they're the form team at the moment. They have beaten the hawks and lions up at the gabba in that run...

 

[bigdog54]

GWS have also been very fortuitous playing some very middling footy against bad teams in recent weeks.

They've won 7 in a row, but incredibly, four of those games they were the weaker team according to expected score.
Even their most recent lost to Adelaide by 16 points was a 31-point expected score loss.
Compare our own 39-point loss to Adelaide which was "only" a 6-point expected score loss.

Not a single one of our wins would have been overturned on expected scores this season, where again, four of GWS's seven wins in their win streaks would have likely been losses if both teams kicked to league average accuracy.

Just as an aside I find it very annoying this year that there's every chance that only one of the four form/best teams on the season (Port) will actually make top 4. It might make the finals series more exciting - one of us, Hawks, Brisbane have to get knocked out in the first week but whicever two of those teams win through to week 2 is a very good chance of winning the flag - but as a person that's interested in fairness I can't cop Sydney, Geelong, GWS having a very reasonable chance of winning the flag. It feels like there's more unfair, lucky high ladder positions this year than there are in most.

I hope you're right but, I think they're the form team at the moment. They have beaten the hawks and lions up at the gabba in that run...

 

[Royale]

I’m not sold on any of Gallagher, Daniel or Macrae

IMO Daniel and Macrae just played their best games though admittedly against North. Daniel's ball use was brilliant and clean. Think he keeps his spot and Macrae gathered 17 touches and two goals after being subbed on halfway through the 3rd.

I'd keep them both in. Those two back to their best could carry us through to a grand final.

 

[AFDogs]

I'd keep them both in. Those two back to their best could carry us through to a grand final.

Agree and their bodies would be fresh too having been sub and playing VFL if we make finals.

They also have finals experience which blokes like Garcia etc. do not.

 

[ScottyDogg]

Does anyone else think West is carrying an injury. Not sure if it has been discussed. He took some big blows in the Carlton-Swans block I think he might have a shoulder or something else restricting him. Hopefully we win and he get enough time for it to heal up a bit before finals.

Called it….kinda

IMO Daniel and Macrae just played their best games though admittedly against North. Daniel's ball use was brilliant and clean. Think he keeps his spot and Macrae gathered 17 touches and two goals after being subbed on halfway through the 3rd.

I'd keep them both in. Those two back to their best could carry us through to a grand final.

Maybe an unpopular opinion but what those two bring will not carry us through to a grand final. Manic pressure and speed will. They don’t have that.

We need relentless attack and players who can stick tackles. This takes the pressure off of our well stocked talls at both ends, so they can destroy teams. These roles are not glamorous. Call me crazy but I want Garcia and Poulter. Would have Sanders next in line.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Macrae and Daniel are the better players, and have experience that's worth its weight in gold, but it upsets more of our team balance. Gallagher, McNeil, Poulter etc. on paper make the position and attribute balance better.

I desperately want Macrae and Daniel in the team, but at the same time, it was this matchup last year that they ran over the top of us to win the game. Can't help but think some of these less heralded players that still make some mistakes with ball in hand, won't let other teams get a run on in that way. It's a tough one.

 

[Mutt]

Macrae was very good against Norf and is a strong hard body with tons of experience. He plays for mine.

Daniel is too small, too slow and a complete liability defensively and, at best, could be considered as the sub.

I love Macrae and Daniel but we can't play both of them in my view. Sadly, the game has gone past Caleb and he is no longer close to best 22.