dlanod
Moderator
- Sep 14, 2006
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- #1,651
One aspect of the draft that I do not understand here is people's insistence that clubs should not draft certain types of players or positions with early picks. Form my point of view this is silly (wanted to use much stronger language here). The draft is about acquiring elite talent. If the very best kid in the draft is a small forward, take him.
I know your background is in basketball and that's not the best example to draw from in this case. If you follow the NFL, you'd see a similar approach to what happens in the AFL.
The draft, ultimately, isn't about acquiring elite talent. That's too simple. The draft is about improving your team (true in any league), part of which is acquiring elite talent. In the NBA you can do that by taking a player at any position because there's only five players on the court at once. In sports with larger teams (AFL, NFL), the bigger impact is from players who have the ball the most often and/or are in a position to directly affect scoring. The more a player affects the ball the more of an impact he can have.
What that means is there is a general ranking of positions based off the impact they can have on the team:
- Midfield - can touch the ball 30+ times a game, plus affect the contest another 10-20 times.
- Key forward - can contest 20+ times a game, even if they don't win them all, along with 10-20 disposals.
- Key back - see above, though less impact on the scoreboard (if they are truly amazing, teams just target their teammates instead).
- Small defender - depending on the defender, can touch the ball 20-30 times a game.
- Ruckman - less than ten hitouts to advantage per game and 10-20 disposals.
- Small forward - touches the ball 10-20 times a game with 10+ more contests.
- Quarterback touches the ball on every snap.
- Pass rusher affects the play on every snap.
- Offensive line (especially tackles) blocks the pass rushers, so affects the play on every snap.
- Wide receiver and cornerback affects the play on 55-60% of snaps (passing plays).
- A given running back touches the ball on about 30% of snaps.
- Inside linebacker/defensive linemen stops the run on about 30% of snaps.
- Punters and kickers only touch the ball 5-10 times a game, if that.
FWIW even in basketball it isn't a true "take the elite talent" metric. There's a reason "unicorns" are rated higher than others even though they're technically not as talented as some smaller players. The centres and power forwards that play like an average point guard are still more valuable than an elite point guard, even though the later is arguably more talented. Look at Chris Paul vs LeBron James. One is able to drag his team to the conference finals almost every year, one was barely able to drag his team beyond the first round, even though arguably Paul is the more skilled off the two.
If the very best player in the draft is a small forward and the second best is a midfielder or key forward, then you're backing that small forward to have two or three times more of an impact per contest than the midfielder or KPF. I know that's hard to measure but I'm yet to see a small forward that's two to three times better than any other player from their draft.