Analysis Clearance drop-off in 2024 ...?

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carlton_99

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We are only four rounds into 2024 but already we can see improvement in certain aspects of Carlton’s game. Our tackle pressure has been off the charts ranking 1st in tackles per game and tackles inside 50 per game. The Blues have also remained strong at the contest sitting 3rd in the competition for contested possessions per game and are also converting more of their inside 50 entries to goals (25.0%) compared to 2023 (22.0%). However, one area that has dropped off compared to 2023 is our clearance game:

2023 (26 games)
Centre clearance differential (9th) ⇒ +0.3 per game
Stoppage clearance differential (4th) ⇒ +1.5 per game
==========================================
Total clearance differential (5th) ⇒ +1.8 per game

2024 (4 games)
Centre clearance differential (15th) ⇒ -2.0 per game
Stoppage clearance differential (17th) ⇒ -4.8 per game
==========================================
Total clearance differential (17th) ⇒ -6.8 per game

Obviously, a lot was said in 2023 about our ability to score from stoppage and how this was essentially our “1-wood”. Scoring from turnover has historically been the more sustainable source of goals for the teams contending for a premiership each year and it was clear to all Carlton supporters in the pre-season that this was an area we wanted to target. Improving our ability to move the ball from our back half to punish teams on turnover. Now, it is too early to tell whether there has been an overcorrection which has negatively impacted our clearance game or whether this is due to some personnel changes that have occurred in 2024 that have impacted the midfield. Here, I am referring to specifically Marc Pittonet and Sam Walsh.

Marc Pittonet
In 2023, Marc Pittonet played 18 out of a possible 26 games and was the number one ruck for the Blues, with TDK spending more time forward. In 2024, Pittonet is yet to play a game and TDK has transitioned into that number one ruck role, with McKay, Cripps, and Kennedy eating up the remaining ruck contests. So far, this move has been beneficial and has increased the individual output of both TDK and McKay whilst also allowing us to have an additional runner in the team. However, it is important to remember that Pittonet was a very good tap ruckman for the Blues. In 2023, Pittonet ranked elite in the AFL for hitout-to-advantage rate (35.0%) and above average for hitouts to advantage per game (8.7). TDK has not been able to reach these sorts of numbers in 2024, with his hitout-to-advantage rate (27.0%) and hitouts to advantage per game (7.8) both lower despite attending an average of 12.2 more ruck contests per game in 2024 (71.3) compared to Pittonet in 2023 (59.1). So, this is one potential reason why we may be seeing a drop off in our clearance game.

Sam Walsh
Sam Walsh has missed the first four games of the 2024 season with a back injury, but based on Voss’ last press conference it does seem he will be available for Round 5 against the Crows if he gets through training this week. This is very exciting news for the Blues with Walsh easily being amongst their top 3 or 4 most important players in the team. In 2023, Sam Walsh was third for the Blues in clearances per game (3.8), with 2.8 of these coming at stoppage and 1.1 at centre bounce. Clearances from stoppage is the area we have seen the biggest drop off from the Blues in 2023 and so his return should result in immediate improvement in this area. Another thing to factor in with Walsh and the way he plays is how incredible he is at spreading from stoppage, especially compared to some of our other midfielders (i.e., Cripps and Hewett) who are more suited to the contested side of the game. Bringing Walsh back in provides these distributors who can win the hard ball with another running option who can deliver the ball i50. Walsh was second for inside 50 entries for Carlton in 2023 with 4.8 per game. On the other end, Walsh is also a great two-way player, with his ability to spread from stoppage and not getting attracted to the ball helping us defend opposition clearance to ensure that they are not as effective as they can be. He also ranked second for the Blues in tackles with 4.8 per game in 2023 which should only continue to help with the intensity and pressure the team has brought in the first month.

Obviously, it is going to take Walsh a bit of time to find his groove again, and his role may even be slightly different initially with more time spent at half-forward or even on the wing. However, when he is ready, I would like to see him be a core part of our centre square group with Cripps, Cerra, Hewett, and others like Kennedy, Carroll, Fogarty, E. Hollands etc. Getting the balance right in the midfield is going to be crucial to giving us the best chance of improving our clearance game.

Conclusion
At this point in time, I want to see the impact Walsh has on our clearance game before looking at potentially bringing Pittonet back into this team. Although I am a fan of what Pittonet brings I am currently liking the TDK/McKay partnership far too much to let it go. Bringing in another ruckman would also result in us losing a runner which I think would hurt our transition game and pressure far too much. Looking forward to the next 6-8 games which will hopefully be enough time for us to see what impact Walsh has on our clearance game, and whether we can continue to remain strong on turnover.

Do you think this drop-off even exists? Is it personnel related or an overcorrection in our attempt to improve our turnover game? Looking forward to hearing everyone else's thoughts. GBs!!!
 
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A few additional facts which might influence the conversation: (2023 avg vs 2024 avg (4 game sample for 2024))
  • P. Cripps has gone from 6.8 clearances a match on average down to 4.5
  • G. Hewett has doubled his avg from prior year from 3.5 to 7
  • S. Walsh averaged 3.8 clearances last year
  • S. Docherty averaged 2.3 clearances last year
  • TDK has improved his hitouts to advantage from 5 to 7.8, but Pittonet averaged 8.7 last year and we have lost this almost 100% with Harry and Cripps contributing 1.6 between them
  • In the games he played, P. Dow contributed 4.2 clearances on average, by contrast Carroll has only delivered 2.5 on avg
 
I think Pitto makes a big difference. Even when he doesn't win the tap he keeps the ball in tight which helps our bigger slower mids. Tough one because I don't like playing the two rucks.

Cerra has also had a slow start to the year. Plus no Walsh. No disrespect to Carroll but Walsh to him is a fairly big downgrade. In the past we would have put Kennedy in which would be better clearance wise but hurt us on spread.
 

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slashin_velvet said:
A few additional facts which might influence the conversation: (2023 avg vs 2024 avg (4 game sample for 2024))
  • P. Cripps has gone from 6.8 clearances a match on average down to 4.5
  • G. Hewett has doubled his avg from prior year from 3.5 to 7
  • S. Walsh averaged 3.8 clearances last year
  • S. Docherty averaged 2.3 clearances last year
  • TDK has improved his hitouts to advantage from 5 to 7.8, but Pittonet averaged 8.7 last year and we have lost this almost 100% with Harry and Cripps contributing 1.6 between them
  • In the games he played, P. Dow contributed 4.2 clearances on average, by contrast Carroll has only delivered 2.5 on avg
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Nail and head I reckon.

No Walsh and Doc has changed the dynamic and add in Pitts hustle and bustle (Think TDK has been going really well though).

George is covering for Crippa and Paddy only came in late in the season.
 
It’s an interesting discussion. The fact that Carlton and Geelong are 17th and 18th respectively in clearance differential, but are 2nd and 1st respectively at defending turnover, and are both 4-0, shows that clearance isn’t the be all and end all anymore.

Richmond and Hawthorn both had dynasty’s while being in the bottom half of the league in the clearance game. Collingwood did it last year with a mid table clearance game.
 
Simple. Bring in clearance KING Paddy Dow (🥺 highest centre clearance win % for regular mids in 2023)

Seriously though, while we are winning, this is concerning. TDK has been doing well enough in the ruck, is pitto really the difference maker? Not sure we can carry him any more.
Yes missing Walsh, but would hope Cripps and co could put up more of a fight. It was glaring vs Freo
Hope we see them change some things.
Would think if Kennedy plays he gets more CBAs, big body. Sure he is slow but he’s not adding much elsewhere
 
No Walsh, Doc, Pitt, JSos and Jack Martin have all had an impact.

Kennedy hasn’t been in the guts as he is covering for the absence of both JSos & Martin across half forward.
 
In the NBA, it's been interesting to observe OKC's coach's comments about his team's frailty on rebounding. Even as they lost the rebounding battle in most games, they were winning where it mattered, on the scoreboard.

People often comment, that if they could just fix up their rebounding, they would be unbeatable. The coach said, we don't want to undermine what we're doing well by trying to address rebounding when it doesn't correlate that closely to winning games.

I don't think it's quite the same in football, I don't think Voss would be thrilled at getting beaten in the stoppages. But gee, I'm happy we've focused our efforts on what seems to matter most, the turnover and transition game. Winning stoppages, gaining field position with repeat entries just all seems to lead to a clogged forward line that ironically makes it borderline impossible to score. Moving the ball cleanly from defense gives us more of a chance to isolate Charlie or Harry, giving us more value from our biggest assets.
 
Christou2Kouta said:
In the NBA, it's been interesting to observe OKC's coach's comments about his team's frailty on rebounding. Even as they lost the rebounding battle in most games, they were winning where it mattered, on the scoreboard.

People often comment, that if they could just fix up their rebounding, they would be unbeatable. The coach said, we don't want to undermine what we're doing well by trying to address rebounding when it doesn't correlate that closely to winning games.

I don't think it's quite the same in football, I don't think Voss would be thrilled at getting beaten in the stoppages. But gee, I'm happy we've focused our efforts on what seems to matter most, the turnover and transition game. Winning stoppages, gaining field position with repeat entries just all seems to lead to a clogged forward line that ironically makes it borderline impossible to score. Moving the ball cleanly from defense gives us more of a chance to isolate Charlie or Harry, giving us more value from our biggest assets.
Click to expand...
Bit like not calling timeouts late in close games vs taking your chances in transition as opposed trying to score against a set defense…..
 
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JJBagger said:
It’s an interesting discussion. The fact that Carlton and Geelong are 17th and 18th respectively in clearance differential, but are 2nd and 1st respectively at defending turnover, and are both 4-0, shows that clearance isn’t the be all and end all anymore.

Richmond and Hawthorn both had dynasty’s while being in the bottom half of the league in the clearance game. Collingwood did it last year with a mid table clearance game.
Click to expand...
Clearance is definitely not the be all and end all anymore. And it is great that we haven't been hurt yet with opposition clearance. But I am not sure how sustainable it is to consistently lose clearances because of the pressure it puts on our defence. I think Walsh will help heaps both ways as I said above so hopefully we see some improvement in the next few weeks
 
carlton_99 said:
Clearance is definitely not the be all and end all anymore. And it is great that we haven't been hurt yet with opposition clearance. But I am not sure how sustainable it is to consistently lose clearances because of the pressure it puts on our defence. I think Walsh will help heaps both ways as I said above so hopefully we see some improvement in the next few weeks
Click to expand...
We won the inside 50 count 48-45, so I don’t think it puts that much pressure on our defense, especially with our personnel down there
 

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Good thread. I brought this up last week in response to windows1 comment alluding to this as well. Though a few people can’t see this issue for some bizarre reason.

Tdk is not a natural ruckman but he is getting better. No knock on his footy around the ground, which has improved leaps and bounds. Centre bounce tap work needs improving.

Turnover game is great now, and would love our stoppages game back like we had it last year.
 
TDK v Pittonet makes a difference ... did anyone see Cripps push TDK out of the ruck contest that ultimately led to Cottrell's goal?
Set up around the ball with an emphasis for more scores off turnover makes a difference. Defensive structures/player availability makes a difference. No Walsh makes a difference. Cripps' role?
We will need to balance up the scores from turnover and clearance at some point.
 
JJBagger said:
We won the inside 50 count 48-45, so I don’t think it puts that much pressure on our defense, especially with our personnel down there
Click to expand...
Yeh we did against Freo but my point is eventually losing clearance is going to hurt. Especially if you lose it by 17 like against Freo. Do that against a Sydney or GWS and they will hurt you more. I'm not expecting us to get back to the same clerance dominance we saw in previous years but a bit of improvement overall will just help out the defence a bit
 
JJBagger said:
It’s an interesting discussion. The fact that Carlton and Geelong are 17th and 18th respectively in clearance differential, but are 2nd and 1st respectively at defending turnover, and are both 4-0, shows that clearance isn’t the be all and end all anymore.

Richmond and Hawthorn both had dynasty’s while being in the bottom half of the league in the clearance game. Collingwood did it last year with a mid table clearance game.
Click to expand...

Agree in that winning clearances all game is ****ing hard work and no midfield will dominate every other midfield every game. it's one of those stats that can't just be considered in isolation.

As long as you are making it hard to get a clean clearance where the ball is hacked forward or coming in high rather than a spearing pass to a leading forward you'll still go alright.

Turnovers will kill you if it's a fast break and everyone is out of position so being better at defending turnover via no easy clearances and more generally pressure on the ball carrier is a big plus.

Our transition game is still a work in progress (I think this is our most important area to improve on) and if you look at the weekend's game where Saad and Williams had to play more accountable footy it makes it even harder.

Attacking half backs with good foot skills are worth their weight in gold these days but you're not going to have an easy ride every game, sometimes it's just a bloody grind.
 
M_I_G said:
Simple. Bring in clearance KING Paddy Dow ( highest centre clearance win % for regular mids in 2023)

Seriously though, while we are winning, this is concerning. TDK has been doing well enough in the ruck, is pitto really the difference maker? Not sure we can carry him any more.
Yes missing Walsh, but would hope Cripps and co could put up more of a fight. It was glaring vs Freo
Hope we see them change some things.
Would think if Kennedy plays he gets more CBAs, big body. Sure he is slow but he’s not adding much elsewhere
Click to expand...
When two of the three are half a step slow, the Oppo can get to the outside with ease. It was really concerning how easily Freo found the free man.

Sent from my SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Ezayyak said:
The main difference would be Pitto. He is brilliant at either winning it to our advantage or halving other contest allowing the ball to drop to our contested players. But playing Pitto means we lose somewhere else, be it run or whatever.

A conundrum.
Click to expand...
He's also good at clearing/blocking spacr for our mids.

Sent from my SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Have been concerned about ground ball contests and CBB for weeks now. The only thing that I have to explain for this, is I think Voss hasn't been able to play his preferred on-ball mix - because of Walsh/Martin/SoJ/Docherty unavailability and compromises have been made both in midfield and forward rotations.

The good thing about the situation is that moving forward there will be more rather than less options becoming available to fix this and players like Carroll/E and O hollands and Fogarty have had midfield time - some with more effectiveness than others but still experience under their belts.

The most dangerous opposition if the CBB arent fixed will be Port, Melbourne and maybe Sydney if CBB arent fixed.
 
Pinnell said:
We had first hands on the ball repeatedly on Saturday. We either fumbled, fumbled the initial handball or then overdid it with another - all under pressure. Don't fumble, and/or kick the ball earlier, and the stats would have looked the total opposite.
Click to expand...

The excessive fumbling was concerning- no one seemed immune.
 
Im a big fan of TDK and i think his overall game has been improving, although i never really see him putting the ball to the hands or feet of our on ballers, even though someone posted the stat that his hit outs to advantage are up, i just dont see it. It appears that some of this drop off is by design and some of it down to TDKs lack of natural ruck craft.

Pitto has a few deficiencies but i always thought he put it to the right spots at the ruck contests, late in the Freo game when we were down by a few points, i swear i saw TDK putting it in to no mans land where our guys had no chance.
 
We have been very fumbly for some reason when we have had first use so far this year and opposition are reacting on it - Walsh ability to be able to step through traffic can't be understated for us around the ground -- cerra started to play well this week having a slightly different role as that sweeper I think Walsh back and those two waxing with cripps Hewitt coming in as cooler will be a very different side especially after seeing Williams start to really come into his contested game (hopefully the tightness was nothing ) docs influence with speed and power around the ground stoppage also a missing factor ..
 

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Analysis Clearance drop-off in 2024 ...?

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