Autopsy Collingwood: Where to from here?

[WillHayward]

And won a flag, and narrowly fell short of another one, in that time.

I think you will give it a red hot crack in 2025 again.

My mob won't make the 8. Absolute rabble.

 

[Seattle Mariners]

Assuming a moderate to good run with injury, anything less than a top 2 finish after the home and away and a close prelim loss would be absolutely unacceptable.

I’m expecting an extremely dominant Collingwood in 2025.

 

[Arr0w]

Really ? You think Collingwood will stop attracting players from other clubs ?

Of course they will attract players like all clubs, but that doesn't equal future success as we saw with Schultz

As older players start nearing a use by date, you can't replace all of them at once

 

[Muddiemoose]

Poor examples all around. Taranto and Hopper are top end nothing and if Richmond had their time again they would not have made those trades.
Gold Coast also a poor example as it comes with the idiosyncrasies of a team with no tradition and history, existing in a non AFL state.
Give Collingwood a peak Ablett Jr and a ton of first round draft picks and watch us contest flags for the next decade.

Pretty much highlights my point

Richmond neglected the draft with moves for Hopper and Taranto and tried to get cleaver with later picks but once the core of your old core retire one or two young high caliber players (Bolton and Rioli) aren’t enough

Daicos is the pies only elite young talent

 

[Mr Meow]

Similar to Richmond before our free-fall trying to maximise the window with ready mades

Neglected the pointy end of the draft (partly due to finishing in high ladder positions and also trading out 1st rounders for players)

Similar to Geelong from 2004 onwards.

 

[schmuttt]

Would expect them to be right up there this year but it also isn't unreasonable to say they've mortgaged their future. Sure, you can say they'll pull a rabbit out of the hat again but until we actually see what they do you can't argue otherwise.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Similar to Geelong from 2004 onwards.

Not really no

 

[HeathySure]

Of course they will attract players like all clubs, but that doesn't equal future success as we saw with Schultz

As older players start nearing a use by date, you can't replace all of them at once

Its quite funny that all your Blues supporters are obsessed with Schultz. He won a game for us but had hamstring problems and missed a lot of games.
When we got our structure back at the end of the year he finished the season off really well.

Pies recruiters know what they are doing, they are recruiting players who fit our team, recruiting through the draft is a crap shoot

 

[Mr Meow]

Not really no

Yeah really yes.

Look at the number of first round draft picks traded out, the lack of top 5 picks and minimal amount of top 10 picks in that time. Geelong rebuilt on the run several times while consistently finishing top 4 for a 20 year period.

Richmond tried to do it, but could only last 4 years (no top 4 since 2020, one losing EF the best effort since).

 

[Muddiemoose]

Yeah really yes.

Look at the number of first round draft picks traded out, the lack of top 5 picks and minimal amount of top 10 picks in that time. Geelong rebuilt on the run several times while consistently finishing 4 for a 20 year period.

Not when the core of that squad are directly from those top end picks

Selwood, Bartel, Mackie and even Chappy off the top of my head

Even if you don’t want to need to acknowledge some of the luck involved with the father son picks

If Hawkins and Ablett didn’t have the famous surnames would they have ever played in the hoops?

 

[Arr0w]

Its quite funny that all your Blues supporters are obsessed with Schultz. He won a game for us but had hamstring problems and missed a lot of games.
When we got our structure back at the end of the year he finished the season off really well.

Pies recruiters know what they are doing, they are recruiting players who fit our team, recruiting through the draft is a crap shoot

I actually rate Schultz, always have, but adding established players doesn't guarantee success

 

[Worm4]

I actually rate Schultz, always have, but adding established players doesn't guarantee success

If he presents himself in better shape for 2025, he will be better for it.
Looked overweight last year

 

[Fadge]

I think you will give it a red hot crack in 2025 again.

My mob won't make the 8. Absolute rabble.

Swans were too good for most of 2024 to fall in a hole. Whilst it is difficult to recover from a Grand Final belting, your list is too good not to win plenty of games again in 2025.

And the hunger will be there.

 

[Arr0w]

If he presents himself in better shape for 2025, he will be better for it.
Looked overweight last year

Agreed, I think his best is largely underrated

Perryman, similarly underrated but didn't cost draft capital. I'd play him as a midfielder

Houston was a good pick up and better than what they had last year in Markov, Quaynor, and Noble, but was it really a need for what they paid

 

[Mr Meow]

Not when the core of that squad are directly from those top end picks

Selwood, Bartel, Mackie and even Chappy off the top of my head

Even if you don’t want to need to acknowledge some of the luck involved with the father son picks

If Hawkins and Ablett didn’t have the famous surnames would they have ever played in the hoops?

The Hawkins/Ablett saltiness makes no sense, because the the point wasn't how the original premiership list was built (Geelong were hardly cellar dwellers 1998 through 2003 anyway, again look for the top 5 picks). Rather how long it could be sustained while topping up, trading out first/second round picks and generally getting picks from the latter stages of the first round due to finishing top 4. It's a formula Geelong has used during Scott's entire reign.

Not every club that attempts it has to end up like Richmond post-2020. There have been competent versions as well. So it's important to be balanced when we have these discussions.

 

[daicosdemis]

No like for like equivalent in terms of age and talent but an argument could be made that Taranto and Hopper as ready made top end centre square mids are kind of similar

The same issue presents itself, Taranto (with Hopper injury pelaged) can’t do it on his own without more talent around him and holes among other positions on field

Even Ablett Jr in his prime kicking 2 a week and getting 35 plus wasn’t enough to get wins for Gold Coast without the cattle around him including a large number of kids who have had fantastic careers as they have matured

So unsure how we can expect Daicos the buck the trend with top ups around him

Poor examples all around. Taranto and Hopper are top end nothing and if Richmond had their time again they would not have made those trades.
Gold Coast also a poor example as it come with the idiosyncrasies of a team

Pretty much highlights my point

Richmond neglected the draft with moves for Hopper and Taranto and tried to get cleaver with later picks but once the core of your old core retire one or two young high caliber players (Bolton and Rioli) aren’t enough

Daicos is the pies only elite young talent

We didn't bring in Taranto and Hopper though.
We brought in Bobby Hill (Norm Smith) and Mitchel who played a significant role in our premiership.
We also brought in undoubted top end talent like Houston.

 

[doppleganger]

Pretty much highlights my point

Richmond neglected the draft with moves for Hopper and Taranto and tried to get cleaver with later picks but once the core of your old core retire one or two young high caliber players (Bolton and Rioli) aren’t enough

Daicos is the pies only elite young talent

Collingwood core is a bit different to Richmond.

The old brigade lead by - Pendles, Sidey and Crisp - are still contributing, but they were the core of the 2018-19 teams who challenged the Tigers.

The core of the 2025 team will be the guys born 95-01 age range of 24-30 and N.Daicos.

McStay, Moore, Cameron, DeGoey, Maynard, J.Daicos, Quaynor, Hill, Houston, Perryman, Schultz, Lipinski, McReery.

Richmond has a woeful group in the core age with players born 95-01

 

[Muddiemoose]

The Hawkins/Ablett saltiness makes no sense, because the the point wasn't how the original premiership list was built (Geelong were hardly cellar dwellers 1998 through 2003 anyway, again look for the top 5 picks). Rather how long it could be sustained while topping up, trading out first/second round picks and generally getting picks from the latter stages of the first round due to finishing top 4. It's a formula Geelong has used during Scott's entire reign.

Not every club that attempts it has to end up like Richmond post-2020. There have been competent versions as well. So it's important to be balanced when we have these discussions.

Not salty about Hawkins/Ablett at all
I love the father son rule and think it’s one of the great aspects of our game having family linage able to build generational legacy’s at clubs

But only someone who is not discussing in good faith wouldn’t acknowledge when their own club benefits from something that comes down to a complete genetic lottery and not from smart recruitment or talent identification

Of course the club can claim development but still to try and argue that the cats can’t directly owe some of their fortunes from benefits from the father son rule is just disingenuous

 

[Muddiemoose]

Collingwood core is a bit different to Richmond.

The old brigade lead by - Pendles, Sidey and Crisp - are still contributing, but they were the core of the 2018-19 teams who challenged the Tigers.

The core of the 2025 team will be the guys born 95-01 age range of 24-30 and N.Daicos.

McStay, Moore, Cameron, DeGoey, Maynard, J.Daicos, Quaynor, Hill, Houston, Perryman, Schultz, Lipinski, McReery.

Richmond has a woeful group in the core age with players born 95-01

My observations aren’t just on 2025 for both teams

If I am comparing where Collingwood’s list right now it’s where Richmond’s was in 2022, still had plenty of vets an and optimistic outlook coming off an elimination final loss by 1 point, just before the scales tipped and showed the over reliance on aging stars

 

[Mr Meow]

Not salty about Hawkins/Ablett at all
I love the father son rule and think it’s one of the great aspects of our game having family linage able to build generational legacy’s at clubs

But only someone who is not discussing in good faith wouldn’t acknowledge when their own club benefits from something that comes down to a complete genetic lottery and not from smart recruitment or talent identification

Of course the club can claim development but still to try and argue that the cats can’t directly owe some of their fortunes from benefits from the father son rule is just disingenuous

Why are you rambling about Ablett and Hawkins in reference to a club showing the contend and top up model can be sustained for many years in some situations? You could argue in 2011, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2021 or 2023 the club could've downed tools and tanked. Now in 2024 they are still recruiting players like Smith and Martin, and contending.

Collingwood got the Daicos brothers, but they can't top up successfully because Geelong recruited Ablett and Hawkins in the early to mid 2000s? Help it make sense.

 

[Mr Meow]

My observations aren’t just on 2025 for both teams

If I am comparing where Collingwood’s list right now it’s where Richmond’s was in 2022, still had plenty of vets an and optimistic outlook coming off an elimination final loss by 1 point, just before the scales tipped and showed the over reliance on aging stars

Their list is also roughly where Geelong's was headed into 2020-2022 so it can go either way. That's the point.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Why are you rambling about Ablett and Hawkins in reference to a club showing the contend and top up model can be sustained for many years in some situations? You could argue in 2011, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2021 or 2023 the club could've downed tools and tanked. Now in 2024 they are still recruiting players like Smith and Martin, and contending.

Collingwood got the Daicos brothers, but they can't top up successfully because Geelong recruited Ablett and Hawkins in the early to mid 2000s? Help it make sense.

Because Geelong got Hawkins and Ablett within the same window as Bartel, Mackie, Selwood, traded for other elite talent in players like Ottens (pick 2 btw)

So Geelong had the elite talent to lay the foundations for its decade and a half of dominance, completely different to Collingwood so any comparisons to the juggernaut Geelong has become don’t stack up

If we are comparing to Collingwood with the Daicos bothers they have no young elite talent to ride the wave with them and push Collingwood forward

 

[Mr Meow]

Because Geelong got Hawkins and Ablett within the same window as Bartel, Mackie, Selwood, traded for other elite talent in players like Ottens (pick 2 btw)

So Geelong had the elite talent to lay the foundations for its decade and a half of dominance, completely different to Collingwood so any comparisons to the juggernaut Geelong has become don’t stack up

If we are comparing to Collingwood with the Daicos bothers they have no young elite talent to ride the wave with them and push Collingwood forward

The fact is Ablett left at the end of 2010 and Hawkins back was stuffed 2013-2015, while the teams were old from about 2010 onwards. Harley, Ottens, Scarlett, Ling, Milburn, Mooney all gone at the end of the dynasty and players like Johnson, Chapman, Kelly, Mackie and Bartel were either on their way out or peripheral.

But they managed the transition by recruiting duds (its inevitable some will be), solid clubmen and superstars at times where people called for a rebuild. Found plenty of gems late in drafts. And kept the cycle going without needing to bottom out. It'll probably happen but the point is in the modern game decent clubs can find a way. And it isn't based on Father Sons they found 20 years ago.

 

[doppleganger]

My observations aren’t just on 2025 for both teams

If I am comparing where Collingwood’s list right now it’s where Richmond’s was in 2022, still had plenty of vets an and optimistic outlook coming off an elimination final loss by 1 point, just before the scales tipped and showed the over reliance on aging stars

Richmond had been pretty ordinary post covid.

2021 a 9 win season
2022 a 13 win season
2023 a 10 win season

And then the wheels fell off in 2024, and all the B grade guys in the prime have jumped ship.

Many said the same thing about the Pies list at end of 2021, too reliant on the same old crew.

But Pies have gone 16 win, 18 win and 12 win since then.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Richmond had been pretty ordinary post covid.

2021 a 9 win season
2022 a 13 win season
2023 a 10 win season

And then the wheels fell off in 2024, and all the B grade guys in the prime have jumped ship.

Many said the same thing about the Pies list at end of 2021, too reliant on the same old crew.

But Pies have gone 16 win, 18 win and 12 win since then.

And now we are entering another season with no one even looking remotely close to pushing those vets out

That is and should be the concern for pies fans especially when the youth are still struggling to push out role players like Markov