Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 2.

[Andre]

Marshall on the woman:


He said he did not have specific details of the reasons for the woman’s visit, but said she “has gone through an extraordinary journey” and “unfortunately with this current situation she won’t be able to fulfil that mission”.

So as expected, cannot visit the relative anyway. And they are not admitting an errors. Of course.

Marshall's done a good job by and large up to now. Admitting a mistake has been made here and intending to ensure it doesn't happen again is going to get more support then reminding everyone that he is still a politician.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

and how many COVID-19 victims in Australia do you think have been forced to die without their loved ones by their bedside unable to touch and comfort them? This woman was on the other side of the world and we are moving heaven and earth and risking the health of the public to get her to her loved one's bedside. I do not say do not try but do not risk the safety of the population in doing it.

The fact is that Madam X has tested positive so it is unlikely that she will be by the bedside when her relative passes away. Unless of course SA Health intend to let her out of quarantine for a hospital visit.

Probably 2 or 3 dozen. Governments have changed the rules after the initial tough crack down around 20th March. In late April they reassessed things and realized that people should be allowed to visit dying relatives provided precautions are taken, at the time they increased funeral attendance had increased from 5 to 10.

 

[Alberton Proud]

No Reports as yet as to today's tally

Been like clockwork at 3pm recently when it was all good news

Makes me think there's a few more and they're getting their collective stories straight before going public

 

[LFC2010]

Who does this woman have connections to in the Parliament to allow this to happen?

Has to be someone for them to be defending this decision to allow them in the state when they couldn't actually visit the relative.

 

[manureid]

No Reports as yet as to today's tally

Been like clockwork at 3pm recently when it was all good news

Makes me think there's a few more and they're getting there collective stories straight before going public

Hmmm.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Spurrier in today's presser said 22 other international travellers have been given exemptions to visit sick and dying relatives, or for funerals, in SA since the international borders were closed to foreigners without these special exemptions.

I wouldn't be surprised if at least 1 of those 22 were to visit Paul Faraguna the first COVID-19 patient to be admitted to intensive care around 21st March, and the last to walk out, sometime late last week and several times looked like not making it.

Lots of the questions asked in this thread were asked at the presser. Starts at about 8.55. No Marshall. No waffle from health minister Wade, hands over straight to the prof to give her spiel then answer the thousand questions the media want answered.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Here is some data I picked up from the NSW assessment of Spanish flu out break of 1919.
We dont want this to happen again.
Our sophistication is just so much improved over that time, when they could not assess "Confirmed Cases", but instead all they could do was count body bags.
About 12000 people died Australia wide from Spanish flu, with about 6000 of them in NSW.
In the end they just gave up the ghost - unsurprising since the war had just ended with 60000 Aussies dead.
It was a time when contagious diseases were more the norm.
These points were made in the following reference:
http://theconversation.com/lockdown...oronavirus-might-play-out-in-australia-138429

The plots below for the NSW Spanish flu data were regenerated from the following scratchy reference:
https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20080410052741/http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/83132/20080410-1521/influenza_report_full_36
It shows 2 consecutive 10 week periods of infection - the 2nd twice as dangerous as the first.
In terms of calender dates the disease is ridiculously similar to our current state. Whether the second round is a seasonal (winter) thing, or whether the guard was let down to instigate the 2nd infection period is up for debate. Maybe both.
Here is a time frame analysis taken from The Conversation reference above, which you can match up with the plots below:

[TD valign="bottom"]At the end of February, NSW lifted most restrictions.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]In mid-March, new cases began to rise.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]government delayed reimposing restrictions until early April, allowing the virus to take hold.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]After ten weeks the epidemic seemed to have run its course,[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]as May turned to June, new cases appeared.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]The resurgence came with a virulence surpassing the worst days of April.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"] NSW cabinet decided against reinstating restrictions, but urged people to impose their own restraints [/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]After two unsuccessful attempts to defeat the epidemic - at great social and economic cost - the government decided to let it take its course.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]The second wave’s peak arrived in the first week of July[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]Like its predecessor, the second wave lasted ten weeks.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]But this time the epidemic did not return.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]More than 12,000 Australians had died.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]The NSW government’s decision not to restore restrictions saw the epidemic “burn out”, but at a terrible cost in lives.[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]That decision did not cause a ripple of objection.[/TD]

View attachment 882205
I think most of us knew that the Spanish flu was a "2 peak" thing, but what I did not realise was the change in demographic of those who died in the second wave (taken from the above government reference). If this type of circumstance arose again there are only 2 options: taking out more boomers or capturing the younger demographic. You need to ask yourself: "Are you feelin lucky?"
View attachment 882212

Ouch

 

[OneGreatClub]

No Reports as yet as to today's tally

Been like clockwork at 3pm recently when it was all good news

Makes me think there's a few more and they're getting their collective stories straight before going public

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Still testing close to 1 in a 1,000 residents a day. NY state at peak pandemic was testing about 1 in 400 /500, but 1 in about 800 has been pretty standard minimum since 8th April.

 

[RossFC]

 

[Port Adel Proud]

Why $1 mill.? Lawyers are expensive, but not that expensive even if you were to include the states' costs in the almost inevitable event that any challenge fails.

Provided a law is proportionate and non discriminatory it is valid under section 92 of the Constitution. Nothing to see here.

 

[raptalia]

SEVEN News just posted the results of a news poll on SA exemptions to COVID-19 border quarantine. 84% of those polled favour NO exemptions. Looks like the Premier and his CMO's 'have a heart stance' is not popular with the rest of the State.

According to SEVEN Madam X is now at the Pullman in quarantine and still hasn't seen her dying parent. At this rate she may as well have stayed in Melbourne for the two weeks quarantine.

 

[rocket18]

SEVEN News just posted the results of a news poll on SA exemptions to COVID-19 border quarantine. 84% of those polled favour NO exemptions. Looks like the Premier and his CMO's 'have a heart stance' is not popular with the rest of the State.

According to SEVEN Madam X is now at the Pullman in quarantine and still hasn't seen her dying parent. At this rate she may as well have stayed in Melbourne for the two weeks quarantine.

Yep and all those who came into contact with her are now doing their 14 day isolation, bet they are real happy that she didn't have to.

They will be even happier if they end up testing positive.

What a screw up.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Why $1 mill.? Lawyers are expensive, but not that expensive even if you were to include the states' costs in the almost inevitable event that any challenge fails.

Provided a law is proportionate and non discriminatory it is valid under section 92 of the Constitution. Nothing to see here.

Pauline likes a number you can graphically represent with a chip and six dim sims.

 

[pastmyprimus]

This is an article by Professor Tony Blakely, an epidemiologist and public health medicine specialist from the University of Melbourne.

Not what the citizens of NSW want to hear': The downsides of opening up now

He believes that SA, WA, Qld, Tas, NT and ACT are tracking to achieve elimination of the virus while NSW and VIC may have to settle for suppression. Modelling suggests that "elimination is achieved" (95% probability) if there are no community-acquired cases after a month. That would leave us with a divided country.

With elimination there are no direct COVID-19 illnesses and deaths, and citizens can return to near-normal life. With suppression you accept low levels of virus circulation, and try to find the right balance between loosening restrictions and managing outbreaks. States/territories that achieve elimination could form their own travel bubble, leaving out NSW and Vic. It wouldn't be an easy call to leave out the two biggest parts of the economy.

His conclusion. These are challenging issues, politically fraught, and certainly not what the citizens of NSW and Victoria want to hear. But let’s not forget, this conundrum that Australasia faces – along with possible future travel-bubble mate states in the Pacific and Asia – is a damn sight better than the likely second wave of the pandemic that most other countries may soon be experiencing.

'Not what the citizens of NSW want to hear': The downsides of opening up now

Eliminate or suppress coronavirus? Therein lies the tension between the strategies of the states and territories.

www.smh.com.au

 

[raptalia]

Is this the same Tony Blakely who was advocating herd immunity back in March?

‘Flattening the curve’ would see 15 million Aussies infected with coronavirus

About 15 million Australians would become infected with coronavirus if the country takes the path of “flattening the curve”.

www.news.com.au

Blakely has done a huge U turn and we should all be grateful that the National Cabinet did not follow his herd immunisation strategy some months back.

So what happened to South Australia in Blakely's race? Between 23rd April and 27th May South Australia only had 2 cases and both of these were contracted overseas so how are they community acquired?

 

[Forzaport]

If the aim really is elimination instead of flattening the curve, it’s unlikely international travel will return any time soon. It will be the modern day equivalent of Sakoku.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Why are some countries faring so much better with covid19?
Several possibilities mentioned here including vaccination, climate, population age, under reporting , but not mentioned here is the elephant in the room, the possibility that first world problems of obesity, diabetes, metabolic syndrome may be us more vulnerable than we would like to admit.

The curious case of South Asia’s ‘low’ coronavirus deaths

Varying demographics and differences in disease exposure could explain lower mortality rate in South Asian countries.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[raptalia]

Why are some countries faring so much better with covid19?
Several possibilities mentioned here including vaccination, climate, population age, under reporting , but not mentioned here is the elephant in the room, the possibility that first world problems of obesity, diabetes, metabolic syndrome may be us more vulnerable than we would like to admit.

The curious case of South Asia’s ‘low’ coronavirus deaths

Varying demographics and differences in disease exposure could explain lower mortality rate in South Asian countries.

www.aljazeera.com

I think the key words there are under reporting. I am not sure I trust some of the figures out of Asia and I am not sure they know how many infected people they have walking around.

In any case I do not think any country has done much better than Australia and New Zealand in curtailing the spread of COVID-19.
On March 28 Australia had recorded 3635 cases of COVID-19 and we were increasing at just over 14% each day. Had we maintained that rate of increase we would now have 16,480,238 cases and by the end of this month the entire Australian population would have been infected. Instead we have 7139 cases and on that basis I would say Australia has done as good a job of containing the virus.

I think poor leadership in some western countries is as much to blame as anything.

 

[pastmyprimus]

Is this the same Tony Blakely who was advocating herd immunity back in March?

‘Flattening the curve’ would see 15 million Aussies infected with coronavirus

About 15 million Australians would become infected with coronavirus if the country takes the path of “flattening the curve”.

www.news.com.au

Blakely has done a huge U turn and we should all be grateful that the National Cabinet did not follow his herd immunisation strategy some months back.

So what happened to South Australia in Blakely's race? Between 23rd April and 27th May South Australia only had 2 cases and both of these were contracted overseas so how are they community acquired?

My sense is that suppression was the initial goal in Aus rather than elimination. States and territories went as far as implementing stage 3 restrictions but none went to stage 4 like NZ. Without locking down harder SA, WA, QLD, NT, Tas and ACT have or look like achieving elimination according to the definition. Now that it's been achieved I get why those states are opposed to opening up their borders especially to NSW and VIC.

 

[Interstater]

If the aim really is elimination instead of flattening the curve, it’s unlikely international travel will return any time soon. It will be the modern day equivalent of Sakoku.

I know its a first world problem, but yes that realisation has sunk in.

I'm wondering whether travel insurance will cover getting sick from covid, I very much doubt it.
You will probably be able to travel, but if you get sick you had better have $100k sitting in the bank to cover it, or plan to only visit countries like Denmark and Norway.

Why are some countries faring so much better with covid19?
Several possibilities mentioned here including vaccination, climate, population age, under reporting , but not mentioned here is the elephant in the room, the possibility that first world problems of obesity, diabetes, metabolic syndrome may be us more vulnerable than we would like to admit.

The curious case of South Asia’s ‘low’ coronavirus deaths

Varying demographics and differences in disease exposure could explain lower mortality rate in South Asian countries.

www.aljazeera.com

I think you are combining 2 different things here mate.

The first is chance of catching it - i.e. flu vaccination rates, population density, travel restrictions, climate, age.
The second is the risk of dying from it - obesity, diabetes, age etc.

 

[raptalia]

My sense is that suppression was the initial goal in Aus rather than elimination. States and territories went as far as implementing stage 3 restrictions but none went to stage 4 like NZ. Without locking down harder SA, WA, QLD, NT, Tas and ACT have or look like achieving elimination according to the definition. Now that it's been achieved I get why those states are opposed to opening up their borders especially to NSW and VIC.

You are right, in the early days Scott Morrison was talking about suppression but Australia has done better than I think anyone could have imagined and I also think that elimination is now achievable.

The problem now is that economic rationalism is starting to take over and the political extremists like Palmer and Hanson are starting to dip their oars in. The High Court challenges from these people may largely determine if a State like South Australia is able to get to COVID free status and remain there.

 

[Lagooner]

I know its a first world problem, but yes that realisation has sunk in.

I'm wondering whether travel insurance will cover getting sick from covid, I very much doubt it.
You will probably be able to travel, but if you get sick you had better have $100k sitting in the bank to cover it, or plan to only visit countries like Denmark and Norway.

There will be a financial barrier too. A lot of people will be locked out when the new norm for a return trip to Europe is $5000.

 

[Interstater]

There will be a financial barrier too. A lot of people will be locked out when the new norm for a return trip to Europe is $5000.

Did a quick test, but of course when more people want to do it the prices will go up.