This may help sway your wife's thinking.
www.abc.net.au
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www.abc.net.au
www.abc.net.au
From last night's 7.30.
7.30
LEIGH SALES, PRESENTER: 15-years-ago, an American infectious diseases expert predicted a global pandemic, like coronavirus, would cause pretty much everything that we’re currently living through.
Dr Michael Osterholm outlined a battle plan to get through it in his book, “Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs,” set to be re-released next week.
Dr Osterholm, you have been warning about a pandemic for more than a decade - and yet from SARS, to Ebola, to now this very severe one, we keep getting caught by surprise and on the back foot. Why?
DR MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: I think first of all we really lack creative imagination. And what I mean by that is no-one could have envisioned - so they say - all the constellation of things that have happened here, not just the - a virus crossing from an animal to a human, but that the worldwide transmission, the impact that it has on healthcare, the fact that it also shuts down our global economy, and ironically, those were things we actually published back in 2005 in a series of articles I did back then.
And then, of course, elaborated in our book in 2017. Actually one of the chapters is a theoretical kind of scenario caused by an influenza virus, which could very well be a coronavirus.
So we should have been able to consider this and be better prepared. We just weren't.
LEIGH SALES: How close is what's happening now to that theoretical situation that you wrote about?
DR MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: Well, actually, it's unfortunately very close to it. I actually, I theorise that this virus would show up in China, that it would start outbreaks there, there would be severe spread around the world, that we would see the kind of shutdown of the global
economy that we have seen, that it would overrun our hospitals' Intensive Care Units, in many areas of the world and then unfortunately the part where the chapter diverges right now, is not really a sense of difference, in fact, it just carries it out for what will likely be 16-20 months of ongoing illness occurring in our communities around the world, which is what an influenza pandemic would do.
I fear very much that reality will catch up with the fiction that I wrote in that book.
LEIGH SALES: Is there any way that can be avoided?
DR MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: Well, there really are only two avenues you can take right now. You might say that - appear to be on either side of what we can do.
One is, we just try to basically shut down the world. Much like was done at least temporarily in China in Wuhan. And that, of course, would bring economic devastation to the world. I don't think it could actually really be done because people wouldn't stay in their homes for 18 months. The other side of the coin is one where we just say, "OK. It is going to happen. And we let the cases unfold as they might."
And then we're really in trouble because our healthcare systems around the world will fall very quickly.
Not only will millions of patients die - not just from COVID-19 but even from all the other conditions that they are not able to be adequately treated for like heart attacks, strokes, asthma attacks, because of the inability of healthcare to respond - and we will lose many, many healthcare workers in that process.
Now, I don't believe either of those are the right way. I think we have got to find a middle ground where we in a sense, thread the needle with the rope and make that work, where we find a way to release enough in society of younger individual, who are not likely to have severe disease, particularly not likely to die and that we actually start to incorporate them back into an active every day life.
And then when we have evidence that the virus is not circulating widely, we surely let other members of our society make further decisions for themselves.
But they are able to come out some. And as soon as we see the virus activity picking up, immediately do the shelter in place again, and try to squelch it.
The whole thesis here is that we try to get to a time, where we will have a vaccine, which is hopefully 20 months or so away.
And then at that point, then if we can vaccinate the world, we don't have to worry anymore.
LEIGH SALES: So, you have some kind of a limited lockdown that waxes and wanes?
DR MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: Right. Until we have a vaccine, the only other way we are going to develop immunity in the population - and this virus will continue to circulate until we have a high level- is from getting the disease themselves.
And of course, with that comes the serious illness, the deaths, and that is what we want to avoid. Somehow we have got to figure out how we can get the most number of people infected, you might say, by living life, without causing serious disease and deaths.
At the same time, protecting - they’re almost bubbling those people who are more likely to have severe disease.
Now, that may seem like an impossible task but right now, it is really our only choice.
Otherwise either shutdown or don't worry. Of course, if you don't worry, one will be catastrophic.
LEIGH SALES: Other recent pandemics didn't permanently change our preparedness for pandemics - do you think this one might be different?
DR MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: I think it is going to be very hard for us to forget this one. This will go down in our history much like 1918 went down in the history of our parents and grandparents.
Now we have the technology to better prepare ourselves, we can make vaccines - even if they are not the exact vaccine for this virus, they can quickly be loaded with this, parts of this virus that could make them be more effective. We also know now, that we have to be absolutely concerned about our healthcare systems and what do we mean by surge capacity?We can no longer gnaw our healthcare systems down to the bone.
Got a lovely meat tray ready
In SA it’s a case of you shouldn’t, but there’s no law against it.
Key word should. SA have not enforced the 2 person limit and has kept it at 10.As I read it you can be fined if your trip is deemed unnecessary. As tomorrow is Good Friday the shops will be shut as will schools and other educational institutions. That will probably increase the chances of being pulled over and asked where you are going but they are not going to be able to stop every car on the road. You could always chuck a couple of rolls of bog paper on the seat and say you are taking them to your relies place as they have run out. A mercy dash if you like.
From the SA Government website,
You should stay at home unless it’s necessary to go out. Necessary is defined as:
Stay home if you are unwell.
- Shopping for what you need
- For medical care or compassionate needs
- To exercise, provided it is in compliance with the gathering rules
- For work and education if you cannot work or learn remotely
People aged over 70, aged over 60 with pre-existing conditions, or Indigenous people aged over 50 should stay home wherever possible for their own protection.
Social distancing of 1.5 m should be practiced at all times.
Anyone who fails to comply with the direction may be fined.
- Individuals may be issued with a $1,000 on-the-spot fine.
- Businesses may be issued with a $5,000 on-the-spot fine.
Activities and gatherings
www.covid-19.sa.gov.au
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