Corona virus, Port and the AFL.

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Apparently 156 people in Australia are confirmed to have it. I think it was half that 3 days ago.

By the end of the month it will be 50,000
 

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Some reference material:

- the first 5 minutes

- https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...mFWeAC_NQeXgGsZyfaOU#the-symptoms-of-covid-19

I am convinced we should be delaying for at least four weeks.

- Anyone who currently goes to a large public gathering when they are over the age of 50 is demonstrating Darwinism.
- Anyone who goes to a large public gathering and then spends time with people over 50 needs to have a good hard look at themselves.

There is reason for optimism though if you look at the China graph, its just needs to be managed aggressively.

1584064193091.png
 
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Decision has been made (apparently).
Media and sponsors have been notified.
Season delayed by 4 weeks.
Review circumstances as they go.
 
I'm not hopeful that a vaccine will be developed in the short to medium term. The SARS outbreak was more than 15 years ago and still no vaccine. More resources are being thrown at finding a corona virus vaccine but I'm not optimistic.

There is a vaccine for SARS. It took two years to develop and is a DNA based vaccine.

 
The infection rate/ spread in Australia is a big unknown. Us and NZ are the only developed countries with COVID 19 cases which are still in relatively warm/ summery conditions without co-current cold/ flu outbreaks that come with winter.

I appreciate that medical professional are going to be making statements based on theoretical modelling predictions, but we shouldn't take what they say as inevitable fact - these people are not necessarily experts in COVID 19 - few people in the world are.

Below is a link to a great Q&A with one of the few experts in Covid-19 right now.


It is quite possible with warmer weather, generally good standards of hygiene and a culture of not touching each other a lot as well as comparatively low density living, transmission may not increase exponentially (at least until winter) and that the symptoms experienced may be far more mild (e.g. unlikely to develop secondary pneumonia) e.g. influenza typically has 10x less toxicity at a mean of 25 degrees C vs 15 degrees C.

We need to keep in perspective that so far only 3 people have died in Australia of this, the youngest was 78. It is not time to panic and make rash decisions that can cause significant unnecessary social and economic damage through panic and miss-information. A friend of mine who is a doctor at a clinic testing for COVID 19 has literately had perfectly healthy people turn up to get tested because they went to a Chinese restaurant...

What we can take from this crisis so far, is that news media has failed abjectly in their responsibility to provide factual, considered reporting of events as they unfold. news.com.au deserves particular scorn and unfortunately is the most read news site in Australia. Articles with headlines like "stay home from work" and "disturbing/ huge new rise in number of cases" "Australia to experience higher death rate then china" do nothing to inform (they are all incorrect/ miss-leading) and only create panic.

Our news media is broken, their loss on monopoly of advertising revenue has degraded them to nothing more than a veneer for social media, particularly in times of crisis. Social media itself is in need of desperate reform and regulation as the amplification of incorrect and unhinged views, often legitimised through the traditional media, effectively causing mass hysteria (the toilet paper shortage) and put pressure on governments to act rashly (see Donald Trump's press conference yesterday) creating a crisis worse than the underlying cause.

Overall, people need to calm down and not deep-dive into a COVID 19 anxiety spiral. Don't read shitty news sites, stay off social media, go about your day to day life and just watch your hygiene and person-to-person contact, stay home if sick.
 
Decision has been made (apparently).
Media and sponsors have been notified.
Season delayed by 4 weeks.
Review circumstances as they go.
This is what the guy from Sports bet said this morning
 

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Called into Hungry Jack's an hour ago. They have stopped serving eat in meals on trays due to COVID-19.

d835811b334954b6f29c13ae6e5e4198da9a4921.gif
 
The infection rate/ spread in Australia is a big unknown. Us and NZ are the only developed countries with COVID 19 cases which are still in relatively warm/ summery conditions without co-current cold/ flu outbreaks that come with winter.

I appreciate that medical professional are going to be making statements based on theoretical modelling predictions, but we shouldn't take what they say as inevitable fact - these people are not necessarily experts in COVID 19 - few people in the world are.

Below is a link to a great Q&A with one of the few experts in Covid-19 right now.


It is quite possible with warmer weather, generally good standards of hygiene and a culture of not touching each other a lot as well as comparatively low density living, transmission may not increase exponentially (at least until winter) and that the symptoms experienced may be far more mild (e.g. unlikely to develop secondary pneumonia) e.g. influenza typically has 10x less toxicity at a mean of 25 degrees C vs 15 degrees C.

We need to keep in perspective that so far only 3 people have died in Australia of this, the youngest was 78. It is not time to panic and make rash decisions that can cause significant unnecessary social and economic damage through panic and miss-information. A friend of mine who is a doctor at a clinic testing for COVID 19 has literately had perfectly healthy people turn up to get tested because they went to a Chinese restaurant...

What we can take from this crisis so far, is that news media has failed abjectly in their responsibility to provide factual, considered reporting of events as they unfold. news.com.au deserves particular scorn and unfortunately is the most read news site in Australia. Articles with headlines like "stay home from work" and "disturbing/ huge new rise in number of cases" "Australia to experience higher death rate then china" do nothing to inform (they are all incorrect/ miss-leading) and only create panic.

Our news media is broken, their loss on monopoly of advertising revenue has degraded them to nothing more than a veneer for social media, particularly in times of crisis. Social media itself is in need of desperate reform and regulation as the amplification of incorrect and unhinged views, often legitimised through the traditional media, effectively causing mass hysteria (the toilet paper shortage) and put pressure on governments to act rashly (see Donald Trump's press conference yesterday) creating a crisis worse than the underlying cause.

Overall, people need to calm down and not deep-dive into a COVID 19 anxiety spiral. Don't read shitty news sites, stay off social media, go about your day to day life and just watch your hygiene and person-to-person contact, stay home if sick.

Very good post. I wish I could go a day without hearing the words 'corona virus' out my TV. No one knows where this is going to end so I wonder why the experts and academics keep making big statements like, 'half the Australian population will eventually catch corona virus'. Are these people trying to make a name for themselves? True or otherwise these sorts of hypotheses serve no purpose other than to panic the population and increase stress levels.
 
Some reference material:

- the first 5 minutes

- https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...mFWeAC_NQeXgGsZyfaOU#the-symptoms-of-covid-19

I am convinced we should be delaying for at least four weeks.

- Anyone who currently goes to a large public gathering when they are over the age of 50 is demonstrating Darwinism.
- Anyone who goes to a large public gathering and then spends time with people over 50 needs to have a good hard look at themselves.

There is reason for optimism though if you look at the China graph, its just needs to be managed aggressively.

View attachment 838665
A lot can be achieved once you start lying about the data
 
There is a vaccine for SARS. It took two years to develop and is a DNA based vaccine.

Probably not the best source to quote as proof of a vaccine for SARS. The head of infectious diseases at the hospital I work at says there's no approved vaccince for SARS.
 
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