Corona virus, Port and the AFL.

[Established1870]

Lol the supermarkets are completely empty. Like. Everything.

Really wouldn't be surprised if online orders are the way of the future soon so idiots don't hoard everything.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Lol the supermarkets are completely empty. Like. Everything.

lol nah. i even got the povvo swiss cheese i like just now.

 

[Steve Dore]

So supermarkets will have to start restricting entry? And how will the checkout queue work?

I know you're just taking the piss but supermarkets are exempt.

Apparently the virus can't be transmitted in shopping centres or public transport.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Not sure how it works tbh where I work in hospitality we have a ala carte and buffet section buffet is restricted to a 100 yet still allowed to have and extra 80 in ala carte.

On Pixel 2 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Can’t see that buffets are the safest option. Cruise ships ban buffets when they get a runaway infectious situation

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

I know you're just taking the piss but supermarkets are exempt.

Apparently the virus can't be transmitted in shopping centres or public transport.

unions oughta be riding that to a round of strikes in a couple months

 

[OneGreatClub]

This season ain't even going to see the end of round 1 at this rate.

I can just see our team running on to the ground then getting instructions to leave the field immediately and fly home leaving us all hanging but what I am most concerned about is poor Rory’s 200th

 

[Steve Dore]

Lol the supermarkets are completely empty. Like. Everything.

Went to my usual Foodland supermarket and zero rice to be had. Went over to my usual Asian supermarket, much smaller, and they had a pallet of the 5kg bags of rice I usually buy. I usually only buy one bag at a time but I bought two. I guess I am now officially a hoarder.

 

[*PAF]

I know you're just taking the piss but supermarkets are exempt.

Apparently the virus can't be transmitted in shopping centres or public transport.

Or interconnecting flights between your port of entry back in Australia and the city/town you live in.

 

[Steve Dore]

Or interconnecting flights between your port of entry back in Australia and the city/town you live in.

The difference there is that you are required to self isolate for 14 days after arriving in Oz. I feel l should self isolate after getting off the train some nights but it's not mandatory.

 

[*PAF]

The difference there is that you are required to self isolate for 14 days after arriving in Oz. I feel l should self isolate after getting off the train some nights but it's not mandatory.

Required once you get home.
So if someone comes back from the US via Sydney they need to self isolate once they get home in Adelaide after catching a Sydney to Adelaide flight.

Good intentions but as usual half baked.

 

[MaxPowa]

As I read it the new 4 square metre rule means that if you have 25 people in the pub you will have to provide 100 square metres of space. I assume that publican's will have to work out how many square metres they have in the bars and dining rooms and only allow 25 people inside per 100 square metres. Of course that does not mean that everyone has to social distance within a two metre square. You can have 25 people all sitting or standing shoulder to shoulder at the bar with 60 square metres of space behind them.

I have to admit that I have not been to my local all week as I know I will be in close contact with people I know some of who I know and some of who are complete strangers.

These rules are window dressing, who ever came up with it is an idiot. And FFS can the government stop shifting the goalposts daily, when the infection rate and death rate are not doing anything dramatically different than what has been predicted (I do note that mortality is dropping).

All you are signalling to the panicked population and businesses is that you have no idea what you are doing, no convictions, and can't be trusted.

It's as if the government bread a clown with a monkey, gave the offspring a labotomy, forced it to watch every episode of MAFS back to back and then put it in charge of COVID-19 policy.

 

[chiwigi]

Really wouldn't be surprised if online orders are the way of the future soon so idiots don't hoard everything.

Click and collect, then drive through, it gets dumped in the boot. Drive on.

 

[Steve Dore]

Required once you get home.
So if someone comes back from the US via Sydney they need to self isolate once they get home in Adelaide after catching a Sydney to Adelaide flight.

Good intentions but as usual half baked.

Sorry, I misunderstood. Yes, transiting passengers are not contagious.

Taxi and Uber drivers making pickups at airports are well aware of this fact.

 

[raptalia]

Shows how much


These rules are window dressing, who ever came up with it is an idiot. And FFS can the government stop shifting the goalposts daily, when the infection rate and death rate are not doing anything dramatically different than what has been predicted (I do note that mortality is dropping).

All you are signalling to the panicked population and businesses is that you have no idea what you are doing, no convictions, and can't be trusted.

It's as if the government bread a clown with a monkey, gave the offspring a labotomy, forced it to watch every episode of MAFS back to back and then put it in charge of COVID-19 policy.

In fairness the Government has to do something. If they did nothing they would be criticised. They have not got it all wrong, Australia's testing is up with the best in the world. The decision to ban non Australian residents was also the right one although it would be interesting to know how 400 Americans and several overseas nationals were allowed to get off a cruise ship in Sydney without moving to quarantine.

The latest social gathering rules are simply the Government working up to the point where all pubs, cafes and restaurants are closed as has already happened in New York and Europe.

 

[pastmyprimus]

I'm involved in modelling demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 at the hospital I work for. A key variable is the number of days it takes for cases to double. Our senior clinicians are saying that 5 days is realistic based on their review of current data and the latest literature. Using 5 days as the doubling rate it doesn't take long before our hospital is overwhelmed, only a couple of months.

Experts keep talking about the need to flatten the curve. That's why.

 

[chiwigi]

I'm involved in modelling demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 at the hospital I work for. A key variable is the number of days it takes for cases to double. Our senior clinicians are saying that 5 days is realistic based on their review of current data and the latest literature. Using 5 days as the doubling rate it doesn't take long before our hospital is overwhelmed, only a couple of months.

Experts keep talking about the need to flatten the curve. That's why.

One take away from all this HAS to be how poor the mathematical literacy is in the population.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

75 new cases in NSW, 1 in NT

The numbers have increased by 90 since that tweet, but I expected that today.

Most nations are doubling total cases every 2 or 3 days once they pass 100 cases. Standard exponential growth.

To double in 3 days means a 26% daily compound grown ie
100, 1 day later 126, next day 159 third day 200
200, 1 day later 252, next day 318 third day 400
400, 1 day later 504, next day 636 third day 800

Australia in total is a bit under 26% compound since it had its 100th case, with NSW, Vic and Qld following that rate closer than the smaller states and territories.



We wont be going the Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan or Japan route who have had a lot slower compound growth but they haven't plateud yet. Their experiences with SARS, MERS, being small island nations, with high density population and a history of governments enforcing tough restrictions means they have been able to have a slow growth rate and more importantly low death counts.

Today HK = 208 cases and 4 deaths, Singapore = 345 and 0 and Japan 963 and 33 deaths. Japan has had more deaths but their population is older ( and larger) than other Asian nations and very early on they isolated their elderly.

Japan hit 100 cases and 1 death on 21st February (Oz 19 and 0) and 200 on 27th February.






If we can copy South Korea's plateau then that would be probably as good as it gets. But we don't have their digital obsessed society set up to track people like they have done in South Korea to catch a big outbreak which helped quarantine them. Then again we probably wont have such a large cluster as they had.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

New case numbers are declining largely because the herculean effort to investigate a massive cluster of more than 5000 cases—60% of the nation’s total—linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a secretive, messianic megachurch, is winding down. But because of that effort, “We have not looked hard in other parts of Korea,” says Oh Myoung-Don, an infectious disease specialist at Seoul National University.

South Korea were slack at first then got serious and have done over 280,000 tests. Saw the drive thru tests we did in SA and they copied it straight away. In Seoul they introduced opened booths at hospitals, where people can get tested for coronavirus without being in direct contact with medical staff. This from the Washington Post on 17th.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/17/south-koreas-coronavirus-success-story-underscores-how-us-initially-failed/

More than a quarter-million South Koreans have been tested for the virus. “South Korea now has the ability to test up to 20,000 people a day at 633 testing sites nationwide, including drive-through clinics and pop-up facilities parked in front of newly infected buildings,” detailed the Wall Street Journal. “Samples get transported by van—where they are stored at about 40-degrees Fahrenheit in airtight containers—to 118 laboratories. An army of around 1,200 medical professionals analyze results.”

The video embedded in the Post's story that shows how they use an telephone booth type testing set up there is a clear screen between person popping in for test and medical professional is worth a look.





South Korea hit 100 on 20th Feb, next day 200, next day 400, 2 days later on 24th 800 and on 26th hit 1,000. Hit 2,000 28th, 4,000 three days later on 2nd March and took 12 days to get to 8,000 on 14th. Since then its been an approx 1% daily increase as on 15th 84 new cases, 16th 74, 17th 74, 18th 83. Yesterday was 152 so we will have to see if that is an anomaly or new trend.

I'm expecting Oz to get to 4,000 under the standard doubling ever 3 days experience from overseas by the 27th March. I hope we have done enough the last couple of weeks that we are more in line with South Korea rather than Europe and USA for the progress of cases for the whole month of April.

To go from 4,000 to 8,000 it took other countries
China 3 days
Italy 4 days
Iran 2 days
Spain 2 days
Germany 3 days
France 4 days
USA 2 days


These 2 graphs are from the Financial Times who regularly update this page.

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

Hopefully our death rates will continue to be closer to South Korea rates than the European and US rates.

 

[pastmyprimus]

One take away from all this HAS to be how poor the mathematical literacy is in the population.

There's that famous fable that shows the power of doubling.

The king was a big chess fan, and liked challenging visitors to a game. The king motivated visitors by offering a reward. One visitor just asked for a few grains of rice in the following manner: the king was to put a single grain of rice on the first chess square and double it on every consequent one. The king agreed. The king lost the game. He wasn't worried until the calculations were done. One grain of rice turns into 210 billion tons of rice by square 64.

 

[OneGreatClub]

The numbers have increased by 90 since that tweet, but I expected that today.

Most nations are doubling total cases every 2 or 3 days once they pass 100 cases. Standard exponential growth.

To double in 3 days means a 26% daily compound grown ie
100, 1 day later 126, next day 159 third day 200
200, 1 day later 252, next day 318 third day 400
400, 1 day later 504, next day 636 third day 800

Australia in total is a bit under 26% compound since it had its 100th case, with NSW, Vic and Qld following that rate closer than the smaller states and territories.

View attachment 843519

We wont be going the Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan or Japan route who have had a lot slower compound growth but they haven't plateud yet. Their experiences with SARS, MERS, being small island nations, with high density population and a history of governments enforcing tough restrictions means they have been able to have a slow growth rate and more importantly low death counts.

Today HK = 208 cases and 4 deaths, Singapore = 345 and 0 and Japan 963 and 33 deaths. Japan has had more deaths but their population is older ( and larger) than other Asian nations and very early on they isolated their elderly.

Japan hit 100 cases and 1 death on 21st February (Oz 19 and 0) and 200 on 27th February.


View attachment 843547



If we can copy South Korea's plateau then that would be probably as good as it gets. But we don't have their digital obsessed society set up to track people like they have done in South Korea to catch a big outbreak which helped quarantine them. Then again we probably wont have such a large cluster as they had.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

New case numbers are declining largely because the herculean effort to investigate a massive cluster of more than 5000 cases—60% of the nation’s total—linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a secretive, messianic megachurch, is winding down. But because of that effort, “We have not looked hard in other parts of Korea,” says Oh Myoung-Don, an infectious disease specialist at Seoul National University.

South Korea were slack at first then got serious and have done over 280,000 tests. Saw the drive thru tests we did in SA and they copied it straight away. In Seoul they introduced opened booths at hospitals, where people can get tested for coronavirus without being in direct contact with medical staff. This from the Washington Post on 17th.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/17/south-koreas-coronavirus-success-story-underscores-how-us-initially-failed/

More than a quarter-million South Koreans have been tested for the virus. “South Korea now has the ability to test up to 20,000 people a day at 633 testing sites nationwide, including drive-through clinics and pop-up facilities parked in front of newly infected buildings,” detailed the Wall Street Journal. “Samples get transported by van—where they are stored at about 40-degrees Fahrenheit in airtight containers—to 118 laboratories. An army of around 1,200 medical professionals analyze results.”

The video embedded in the Post's story that shows how they use an telephone booth type testing set up there is a clear screen between person popping in for test and medical professional is worth a look.





South Korea hit 100 on 20th Feb, next day 200, next day 400, 2 days later on 24th 800 and on 26th hit 1,000. Hit 2,000 28th, 4,000 three days later on 2nd March and took 12 days to get to 8,000 on 14th. Since then its been an approx 1% daily increase as on 15th 84 new cases, 16th 74, 17th 74, 18th 83. Yesterday was 152 so we will have to see if that is an anomaly or new trend.

I'm expecting Oz to get to 4,000 under the standard doubling ever 3 days experience from overseas by the 27th March. I hope we have done enough the last couple of weeks that we are more in line with South Korea rather than Europe and USA for the progress of cases for the whole month of April.

To go from 4,000 to 8,000 it took other countries
China 3 days
Italy 4 days
Iran 2 days
Spain 2 days
Germany 3 days
France 4 days
USA 2 days


These 2 graphs are from the Financial Times who regularly update this page.

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

View attachment 843527




Hopefully our death rates will continue to be closer to South Korea rates than the European and US rates.


View attachment 843513

Wow thanks for in depth post

 

[*PAF]

I'm involved in modelling demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 at the hospital I work for. A key variable is the number of days it takes for cases to double. Our senior clinicians are saying that 5 days is realistic based on their review of current data and the latest literature. Using 5 days as the doubling rate it doesn't take long before our hospital is overwhelmed, only a couple of months.

Experts keep talking about the need to flatten the curve. That's why.

Unfortunately most people do not realise what would happen to a hospital if 50 people need to be admitted at once.
That is 50 on top of the usual numbers that will keep occurring.

Double that number, move some to specialised intensive care and it gets really scary.

Overseas they are talking larger numbers.

 

[pastmyprimus]

Unfortunately most people do not realise what would happen to a hospital if 50 people need to be admitted at once.
That is 50 on top of the usual numbers that will keep occurring.

Double that number, move some to specialised intensive care and it gets really scary.

Overseas they are talking larger numbers.

Hospitals aren't designed to handle the massive short spaced surge that's likely to hit. They'd be in a better position if the surge could be spread out over time

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I'm involved in modelling demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 at the hospital I work for. A key variable is the number of days it takes for cases to double. Our senior clinicians are saying that 5 days is realistic based on their review of current data and the latest literature. Using 5 days as the doubling rate it doesn't take long before our hospital is overwhelmed, only a couple of months.

Experts keep talking about the need to flatten the curve. That's why.

I assume you are using 5 days because the Ballarat area is isolated from Melbourne and the other states and capital cities that have a faster doubling rate.

 

[raptalia]

When we talk about reported cases it is well to remember that not all cases are serious. Many people test positive but recover within 3-4 days but unfortunately others are much sicker and some die mainly the elderly or people with a history of respiratory problems. We never seem to get the recovery rate figures. The media are all over new cases and deaths but never actually report how many cases have been allowed to return home after treatment.

Last report I read there had been 814 positive tests for COVID-19 in Australia. Are all these people still in isolation? How many are actually being treated in hospital? I assume many of these people have been treated successfully and released but how many?

The critical question and one that no one can answer is of course how many people have contracted the virus but not been tested? The confirmed cases will be treated and isolated but it is the carriers who have the virus but show very slight or no symptoms who are the problem.

 

[pastmyprimus]

I assume you are using 5 days because the Ballarat area is isolated from Melbourne and the other states and capital cities that have a faster doubling rate.

We've gone with 5 days based on our clinician's assessment of the data/literature. It hasn't been adjusted for isolation. Ballarat is only partly isolated from Melbourne. More than 3,000 people commute daily to Melbourne for work so there is a 'Melbourne' risk.

We're using 5 days now but that could change.

 

[Relativity]

One take away from all this HAS to be how poor the mathematical literacy is in the population.

Yep 35% of the population don't know maths. The other 70% don't care.