Corona virus, Port and the AFL.

[Doctor Feel]

lol just caught up on the last 4-5 pages. Really exposes who the complete weirdos are, wowee. This crisis has really irreversibly destroyed some posters image, lmao.

Except Janus, we already knew he is the gold plated Dunning-Kruger.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Quoting stats on the number of deaths by disease type is irrelevant. You need to look at the mortality rates. Using stats in the 4th graphic you cite as evidence for no difference in rates makes the point.

Fatality rate for COVID-19 0.7% to 3.4%
Fatality rate for sesonal flu around 0.1%

So in best case scenario COVID-19 is 7 times as deadly and worst over 30 times.

S.Korea has the lowest rate (0.7%), mainly because it's imposed a strict lockdown of its population. We haven't done that yet.

There's no point quoting stats on Australia's mortality rate because we are in the very early stages of the outbreak.

The best case scenario does not involve using stats from a country being hit by a brand new disease in a panicked outbreak. The best case scenario is what we look at when we see what the mortality rates from infection are in France in 2025.

There seems to be a disconnect here ie two separate conversations.

The mortality rates everywhere in 2020 are going to be incredibly high because of the 0 - 100 nature of this virus. It's because when you get in to the top red bubble below you end up not being able to treat people effectively. Australia's mortality rate will almost certainly be >1% for this reason and it's why social distancing is important.

 

[PowerBaz]

The flu season stretches the healthcare system as it is. People have no idea.

Yeah, my wife is a nurse, also when people talk about this virus mutating, randomly effecting the young etc...... so does the normal flu.

ScoMo seems to be making the private sector shut down without having to do it for them, will be interesting to see how it plays out, I think they want the economy to keep plodding along which is understandable whilst accepting two things, that most people will be fine but we will lose a few oldies and vulnerable...

I watched the drum the other night and a Immunologist spoke very insightfully and she was a big fan of a 2 week lock down as it has showed to start to reverse the people becoming infected - so who bloody knows, they are rolling the dice a bit, but as we saw with the fires, ScoMo is never wrong...

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Also keep in mind the last time a new strain of flu hit the world (Swine Flu), it carried a mortality rate of 1-4%.

 

[Doctor Feel]

can someone explain why non essential gatherings of 100 people being banned will stop the spread but essential gatherings of over 100 people won't be an issue?
Are we just trying to stop recreation? Movie theatres, restaurants, bars and clubs will need to shut down or partially shut down. This is as much " work" for people as an office job (I say this as an office worker) it just seems like a way to kill the service industry.
If the economy is about to be as f’ed as it looks there won't be many re-opening.

There is a clear distinction. The 100 limit is for indoor meetings, the 500 limit is for outdoor.

 

[Doctor Feel]

Also can we please stop egging on the deaths of boomers? It's pretty ****ed. We all have parents, grandparents or relatives that fall into the Boomer category.
In any case, egging on someones death is reserved for people like Osama Bin Laden, not your Grandparents.

Alot of valued posters here are Boomers as well, I think we're better than that.

 

[PepeSilvia]

you p


you really dont cope with people not sharing the same view as you too well do you.

I'm fine with differing views. I just think you're making an absolute fool of yourself.

 

[bomberclifford]

I'm amazed that there's so many experts on forums and social media. You'd think they'd all be busy working in hospitals or laboratories or government think tanks.

 

[raptalia]

Magda Szubanski self isolating in her home in Melbourne. 'I don't have corona virus I just do not want to become a carrier and kill someone'.

If you do not have COVID-19 why would you want to self isolate? Unless you felt you needed a bit of publicity?

I agree with some of Szubanski's views on the subject but I am not sure how isolating oneself helps the economy. Unless of course you want to see Uber Eats and Menu Log make millions.

Watch: Magda In Lockdown | The West Australian

Magda Szubanski is the latest high-profile Australian to go into self-isolation due to the coronavirus pandemic.

watch.thewest.com.au

PS If you take a look at the link you may recognise one of the presenters.

 

[bomberclifford]

Hong Kong Janus

Hong Kong Flu-ey

 

[EskimoPAFC]

I'm amazed that there's so many experts on forums and social media. You'd think they'd all be busy working in hospitals or laboratories or government think tanks.

#blessed

 

[Schulzenfest]

Also can we please stop egging on the deaths of boomers? It's pretty f’ed. We all have parents, grandparents or relatives that fall into the Boomer category.
In any case, egging on someones death is reserved for people like Osama Bin Laden, not your Grandparents.

Alot of valued posters here are Boomers as well, I think we're better than that.

I don't want Boomers to die, I just want them to stop voting.

 

[PepeSilvia]

I'm a little confused by how 'non-essential indoor gathering' is being defined. Leigh Sales' tweet below says that workplaces are considered essential gatherings. Does that mean a busy swim school, for example, continues to operate because it is a workplace?

 

[FishingRick04]

It’s not self isolation it’s de socialising, makes sense if you don’t want to get it.

scomo just shut it all down for 3 weeks mofo

 

[Doctor Feel]

I'm amazed that there's so many experts on forums and social media. You'd think they'd all be busy working in hospitals or laboratories or government think tanks.

 

[agmsy]

If you do not have COVID-19 why would you want to self isolate? Unless you felt you needed a bit of publicity?

For exactly the reason described. Every physical or proximity interaction you have increases the risk of you becoming infected, or spreading the infection to others.

Slowing the spread means reducing the risk and incidence of transmission.

 

[Burningleviathan]

There is a clear distinction. The 100 limit is for indoor meetings, the 500 limit is for outdoor.

Yes. My question is why is the work
People do in a shopping centre ( not just wollies and coles)deemed essential enough that we dont consider the risk of infection spreading enough of a factor to close it down?
Meanwhile staff at a bar that serves more than 100 people have their jobs considered non essential and shut down.
Outside of food provisions why does a shopping centre need to be open? If it is for economic reasons then shutting down bars, clubs and restaurants should also have the economic risks considered. A lot of places won't reopen, especially if it goes for 6 months like the PM suggests it might.
We are trying to balance economic and disease prevention but are doing it in a very disposable way.
This essential/non essential seems ill defined.
Tl/dr
Why is going to eb games deemed essential enough for me to risk getting the virus but going to dinner deemed to big a risk and must be closed down.

 

[PowerBaz]

I'm amazed that there's so many experts on forums and social media. You'd think they'd all be busy working in hospitals or laboratories or government think tanks.

Had you fooled all along...

 

[PowerBaz]

View attachment 841654

No Mask?

 

[dirty2]

Solution. Chuck all the over 60's onto the now docked cruise ships and set em sailing for a glorious 3 month holiday, and let's all get back to work

How do I get a fake Id saying I'm over 60?

 

[pastmyprimus]

The best case scenario does not involve using stats from a country being hit by a brand new disease in a panicked outbreak. The best case scenario is what we look at when we see what the mortality rates from infection are in France in 2025.

There seems to be a disconnect here ie two separate conversations.

The mortality rates everywhere in 2020 are going to be incredibly high because of the 0 - 100 nature of this virus. It's because when you get in to the top red bubble below you end up not being able to treat people effectively. Australia's mortality rate will almost certainly be >1% for this reason and it's why social distancing is important.
View attachment 841645

Some protective measures are more effective than others. I don't think the ones taken by Aus so far will protect us from a mass outbreak. Lockdowns while drastic are one of strongest forms of protection especially in the absence of a vaccince. One won't be ready by the time we hit the worst time of year - flu season. My hospital is already experiencing high number of Emergency Department presentations for this condition, so we're expecting a bad flu season.

That's going make it so much tougher for the health system to cope with COVID-19

 

[Burningleviathan]

A podcast on the corona virus by a couple of diesease ecologists who speak to some experts part way through. It is from feb 2 though so be surprised when then mention 14000 infections and not 180000

Episode 43 M-m-m-my Coronaviruses – This Podcast Will Kill You

thispodcastwillkillyou.com

 

[Doctor Feel]

Yes. My question is why is the work
People do in a shopping centre ( not just wollies and coles)deemed essential enough that we dont consider the risk of infection spreading enough of a factor to close it down?
Meanwhile staff at a bar that serves more than 100 people have their jobs considered non essential and shut down.
Outside of food provisions why does a shopping centre need to be open? If it is for economic reasons then shutting down bars, clubs and restaurants should also have the economic risks considered. A lot of places won't reopen, especially if it goes for 6 months like the PM suggests it might.
We are trying to balance economic and disease prevention but are doing it in a very disposable way.
This essential/non essential seems ill defined.

Shopping centres provide consumer staples. Restaurants don't.
Public transport provides essential service to every day living.

It seems pretty clear to me why those places are still able to operate (though with increased focus on social distancing and hygiene). If you shut either or both of those down completely, the result would be widespread madness never seen before in this country.

The whole idea is to impose enough restrictions that we reduce the spread, not eliminate - but reduce it while also keeping society as operable as possible.

It's so hard to balance.

 

[FishingRick04]

Business needs to adjust to a home delivery model. Those that will, will get the business. I'm already exploring webinars, zoom hook ups etc

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

I'm fine with differing views. I just think you're making an absolute fool of yourself.

because i think balance and perspective is needed? because i care about the millions that will become unemployed? Because i care that if this keeps up for months then thousands of companies including big ones including like airlines etc will go bust? Ive never said that i dont support shutdowns and measures to slow the spread. But we need to do it right.

Yet im making a fool of myself?




Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy has bluntly defended the government’s approach to containing the coronavirus, saying a short-term shutdown of society would “not achieve anything” and any measures need to be “sustainable” for at least six months.

I guess he is making a fool of himself too then