Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

[briztoon]

Article on why Italy death rate with an older population is higher than elsewhere.

A quick search has Australia's 65+ age population in 2018 sitting at 15.7 %
Say it is 16% in 2019 . On Australia's population of 26 million that is 4.16 million seniors
Italy with 23 % of 60 million that is 13.8 million seniors.

Below two sentences from article dated 10/3/19

Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 – heightening the population’s risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.

According to Italy’s national health institute, the average age of those who have died was 81, and many of the deceased had preexisting health conditions.

Italy, now under lockdown, has been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak. It also has one of the world's oldest populations with 60% over age 40.

"For better or for worse, we have a very old population," Giovanni Rezza, chief epidemiologist at Italy's national health institute, said on Monday.

www.businessinsider.com.au

And most of them shouldn’t have had to die from this virus.

That’s the ****ing point being lost or ignored in these articles and statistics.

As my 75 year old dad said last night, it’s cheaper in the long run for the government to let it spread slowly through the community than try and stop it.

Because when we’re over the bell curve and on the other side, there’s going to be a lot less old age and disability pensions for the government to pay, and you can bet your last dollar that ScoMo and the treasurer have budgeted this in to recovery over the next few years.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

Morrison was never going to make a hard decision like that as it would be so unpopular because 90 percent of Australia were uneducated on this issue. It’s almost like we needed to see it ourselves first. Trouble is it’s a virus and once in it is very hard to stop. Strong Prime Ministers of the past would have acted more decisively. Other cultures are more compliant so strong leaders have been able to successfully enact containment policies.

 

[briztoon]

Can the government allow people to access their super early?

Sure if they legislate it, but most peoples supers have almost halved by now, because they’re largely tied up in shares.

And if people start cashing out their supers, the market will keep falling.

My wife and I had this discussion over the weekend, should I take the opportunity to buy Woolworths shares, and we specifically discussed Woolworths, with a fair chunk of my savings, or do we want to keep our money available through this.

 

[briztoon]

Morrison was never going to make a hard decision like that as it would be so unpopular because 90 percent of Australia were uneducated on this issue. It’s almost like we needed to see it ourselves first. Trouble is it’s a virus and once in it is very hard to stop. Strong Prime Ministers of the past would have acted more decisively. Other cultures are more compliant so strong leaders have been able to successfully enact containment policies.

He could have had epidemic and virologist experts on every channel for a week explaining what’s going to happen, back at the beginning of February.

But like a few here, a lot of people probably would have said they’re scaremongering, and news channels are beating up a story.

 

[Maroon Monsoon]

Sure if they legislate it, but most peoples supers have almost halved by now, because they’re largely tied up in shares.

And if people start cashing out their supers, the market will keep falling.

My wife and I had this discussion over the weekend, should I take the opportunity to buy Woolworths shares, and we specifically discussed Woolworths, with a fair chunk of my savings, or do we want to keep our money available through this.

My partner and I have been having similar discussions with regards to buying index funds in general. We've decided to err on the side of caution and keep as much savings in cash as we can, it feels like the domestic economic impacts haven't really gotten started yet and so there's no telling what the job market will be like in four months. For the same reason we're putting the house hunt on hold until things are a bit clearer

 

[MacMum]

Is this really a good idea?
In the current climate, to have a mass gathering of pensioners/more vulnerable people (To this virus) in the one place all at the same time?
It seems to be the exact opposite to the advice given by the experts.

Yes, you do wonder. When I got home Mr MM (he's "allergic to shopping") asked me if we stood the required distance apart, no we didn't. No-one was wearing masks or gloves either.

Apparently it's been chaos all over melbourne this morning....have also learnt that busloads of vultures have been raiding the small town supermarkets too.

My granddaughter was telling me that they swooped on our hometown the other day. It really is getting out of hand......has also become a vicious circle, because of people loading up, people (me) wanting to do a normal shop can't get stuff so in turn they then have to do the rounds looking for items. grr!

....and so it will go on.

 

[MacMum]

Guessing the oldies are panic buying veterans with all they've been through.

Not this little black duck, didn't see any war other than the Vietnam one......and my mother was only a teenager during the 2nd WW

 

[royboys4eva]

Made the daunting trip to supermarket today. Waste of time here in Melbourne - anything important is gone by 7/8am. Butchers have next to nothing. It's going to get to the stage here where people will be lining up in droves at 5am for Coles and Woolies to open at 7am. Also can't help but feel the uneasiness and worry in people when out in public now. Really starting to see people at their worse.

I love footy more than most people and we all love it, but right now I'm too consumed with other issues and if the season is going to be reduced - match duration - multiple matches per team in a week - lists of 50 players - I think they need to seriously look at whether its worth playing at all this season. I know that would cause trouble with income for the game and players and others who rely on the game to be played but the minute a couple players come down with the virus that weeks games are off and possibly the following weeks. We are heading into winter it will get worse before better. Almost seems inevitable that the season will be suspended at some stage unless things improve dramatically. I really hope I'm wrong. If the World is safe from Corona virus heading in 2021 I think the AFL should look at starting in March and playing a few extra rounds - good will and extra income.

Stay safe out there fellow Lions fans.

 

[royboys4eva]

Yes, you do wonder. When I got home Mr MM (he's "allergic to shopping") asked me if we stood the required distance apart, no we didn't. No-one was wearing masks or gloves either.

Apparently it's been chaos all over melbourne this morning....have also learnt that busloads of vultures have been raiding the small town supermarkets too.

My granddaughter was telling me that they swooped on our hometown the other day. It really is getting out of hand......has also become a vicious circle, because of people loading up, people (me) wanting to do a normal shop can't get stuff so in turn they then have to do the rounds looking for items. grr!

....and so it will go on.

Yeah MacMum it's getting really out of control here in Victoria. I actually dread going to a shopping centre/ shops now. I'm not surprised to hear people raiding country towns, its got to that stage already. The normal people are trying to just get the basics but unfortunately there are always the ones who go into a frenzy and buy everything in bulk and leave nothing for others. The elderly/ disable should be given a three hour period with selves full once a week. This morning the shelves were not even re stocked for the elderly in many places!

 

[Elixuh]

Never seen fewer people on the bus, in the cbd and in the cafe in the foyer of my building.
We just got sent to work from home until further notice.

 

[briztoon]

Palaszczuk has committed the QLD gov to fund clinical trials of the drugs mentioned yesterday on here.

 

[Maroon Monsoon]

It's shocking to hear things are that bad in Victoria atm, and my family in Sydney are reporting similar conditions in supermarkets there. Thankfully it hasn't gotten as bad where I'm living in Brisbane at this stage, but we did notice that our local woollies was sold out of toilet paper, rice and some canned goods for the first time on the weekend

 

[Dylan12]

Unsurprisingly

My granddaughter was telling me that they swooped on our hometown the other day. It really is getting out of hand......has also become a vicious circle, because of people loading up, people (me) wanting to do a normal shop can't get stuff so in turn they then have to do the rounds looking for items. grr!

Apparently the same is occurring at the Sorrento IGA; fortunately, the staff have been wise to putting some items out the back and only giving to locals.

I've just been unlucky that when I went there on Saturday they were out of Toilet Paper...hopefully this week. If I did see someone stocking up disproportionate to anyone's normal needs, I'd be saying something to them; not that it'd probably do a lot.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I genuinely don’t understand how people still believe things might return to normal by May or June.

As one of the people who has echoed a sentiment along these lines (although not in those words), just some clarification - I don't believe things will be 'normal' by June, however I do believe that they will be much more normal. I think we will have crowds at games, flights coming and going as normal (with some quarantine measures for arrivals from just a few places), and shopping centres mostly full.

My main reason for thinking this is that the economic hit our society would take if that isn't the case by June would be significantly greater than the economic hit we would take from the whole population getting infected. Obviously economics isn't the only viewpoint, and the loss of life is enormously significant and tragic, but if our society isn't back to normal by then I honestly can't imagine what sort of world we will come back to on the other side of all this.

The economic consensus seems to be that a society where this is rampant and widespread but business is still active is a better economic scenario than one in which the virus is somewhat contained but restaurants, shops, airlines etc have closed permanently and almost all casual work has dried up.

It's worth noting I would never normally be one making the economic argument. Generally I err always on the human side of things, and that is my primary concern in this situation. I just think for all those expecting that we will go into prolonged months of a shut down society, it's worth noting that doing so would actually destroy our economy. Not hit it a bit, not create something as bad as the GFC, but actually destroy it beyond recognition.

 

[M Malice]

Just got back from Coles, a fair few empty/sparse shelves, I could get everything that I wanted except there was a restriction on the amount of mince you could buy, I wanted 2 kilos but 1 kilo was the maximum.

Also my 9 year old granddaughter was sent home from school today as a precaution, she had a sniffly nose, she didn't put up her hand as sick she was picked out by the teacher and told to go to the sick bay and they rang my son to come and get her. He works at the PA Hospital in IT, his supervisor has told him he can now work from home. The granddaughter was quite confused and worried by the situation as she didn't want to come home, this is having an affect on the children whether they get sick themselves or not.

 

[MacMum]

Big thank you to Kernel Kurtz and Lions Flag 2020 for your well wishes. Hope to come out of this unscathed.

Best wishes to you all out there and keep safe please.

Have just had a phone call from mums aged care place saying they have a gastro outbreak. Bloody hell, as if there isn't enough to worry about with the virus and all, now this. Mum is ok at this stage, I've given her the lecture about masks etc, I'm sure she thinks she's invincible...

...she did to me what I used to do to her....didn't listen!!

 

[Dalions]

Big thank you to Kernel Kurtz and Lions Flag 2020 for your well wishes. Hope to come out of this unscathed.

Best wishes to you all out there and keep safe please.

Have just had a phone call from mums aged care place saying they have a gastro outbreak. Bloody hell, as if there isn't enough to worry about with the virus and all, now this. Mum is ok at this stage, I've given her the lecture about masks etc, I'm sure she thinks she's invincible...

...she did to me what I used to do to her....didn't listen!!

We have just received an email from The Daughters School to say there has been an outbreak of head lice.
If it’s not one thing it is another.

 

[briztoon]

Big thank you to Kernel Kurtz and Lions Flag 2020 for your well wishes. Hope to come out of this unscathed.

Best wishes to you all out there and keep safe please.

Have just had a phone call from mums aged care place saying they have a gastro outbreak. Bloody hell, as if there isn't enough to worry about with the virus and all, now this. Mum is ok at this stage, I've given her the lecture about masks etc, I'm sure she thinks she's invincible...

...she did to me what I used to do to her....didn't listen!!

That was my dad last night.

He refuses to stay home. His words, “I’m not going to run away from this virus”.

I’ll admit I’m angry because I’m the only one in my extended family, from my generation or older, who isn’t in a high risk category. Then again I also have an underlying health issue that may or may not put me in a high risk category.

 

[dlanod]

Because when we’re over the bell curve and on the other side, there’s going to be a lot less old age and disability pensions for the government to pay, and you can bet your last dollar that ScoMo and the treasurer have budgeted this in to recovery over the next few years.

It sounds good in theory, but he's very conscientious of not doing anything that might lose him votes - and that's his largest voting bloc.

 

[Maroon Monsoon]

As one of the people who has echoed a sentiment along these lines (although not in those words), just some clarification - I don't believe things will be 'normal' by June, however I do believe that they will be much more normal. I think we will have crowds at games, flights coming and going as normal (with some quarantine measures for arrivals from just a few places), and shopping centres mostly full.

My main reason for thinking this is that the economic hit our society would take if that isn't the case by June would be significantly greater than the economic hit we would take from the whole population getting infected. Obviously economics isn't the only viewpoint, and the loss of life is enormously significant and tragic, but if our society isn't back to normal by then I honestly can't imagine what sort of world we will come back to on the other side of all this.

The economic consensus seems to be that a society where this is rampant and widespread but business is still active is a better economic scenario than one in which the virus is somewhat contained but restaurants, shops, airlines etc have closed permanently and almost all casual work has dried up.

It's worth noting I would never normally be one making the economic argument. Generally I err always on the human side of things, and that is my primary concern in this situation. I just think for all those expecting that we will go into prolonged months of a shut down society, it's worth noting that doing so would actually destroy our economy. Not hit it a bit, not create something as bad as the GFC, but actually destroy it beyond recognition.

I agree what you're saying about the economic consequences of it, but it's quite one thing for political or business leaders to declare things are back to normal and another for the population at large to feel comfortable going about their normal life. It seems that we're only at the outset of the epidemic in Australia and already anecdotal evidence amongst my group of friends, colleagues and acquaintances suggests people are getting more uncomfortable with going anywhere where large crowds will be unless they have to, and are looking to minimise social contact to varying degrees.

This will only get worse as infection numbers rise, and that's what's going to be the biggest barrier to life and the economy normalising by may or even June. You're quite right, though, it'll mean things are very dire by that point

 

[briztoon]

It sounds good in theory, but he's very conscientious of not doing anything that might lose him votes - and that's his largest voting bloc.

My dad is a retired union secretary and staunch labor member. That’s all you need to know when it comes to discussing anything to do with politics. And everything else.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

My dad is a retired union secretary and staunch labor member. That’s all you need to know when it comes to discussing anything to do with politics. And everything else.

He would have liked K Rudds article yesterday then as Rudd gave Morrison an uppercut. He accused him of going half measures, going half pace and then going to Hillsong. (Not exactly the quote but you get the picture). It was very funny.
I sit on the other side of the political fence but must admit that I now take the view that they are all as bad as each other! Give me a good leader who I think will run the country best and I dont care what colour their shirt is.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I agree what you're saying about the economic consequences of it, but it's quite one thing for political or business leaders to declare things are back to normal and another for the population at large to feel comfortable going about their normal life. It seems that we're only at the outset of the epidemic in Australia and already anecdotal evidence amongst my group of friends, colleagues and acquaintances suggests people are getting more uncomfortable with going anywhere where large crowds will be unless they have to, and are looking to minimise social contact to varying degrees.

This will only get worse as infection numbers rise, and that's what's going to be the biggest barrier to life and the economy normalising by may or even June. You're quite right, though, it'll mean things are very dire by that point

Yep, that's true - although I wonder how attitudes may shift (in either direction) between now and then. Will the fear and trepidation last that long? Or will it just become a new normal that people slowly seem less shocked by? Not suggesting people will no longer care about their health or anything along those lines - just that it might be less likely to stop them booking a relatively safe holiday (interstate or to NZ) come May/June.

 

[carnthemlions]

As one of the people who has echoed a sentiment along these lines (although not in those words), just some clarification - I don't believe things will be 'normal' by June, however I do believe that they will be much more normal. I think we will have crowds at games, flights coming and going as normal (with some quarantine measures for arrivals from just a few places), and shopping centres mostly full.

My main reason for thinking this is that the economic hit our society would take if that isn't the case by June would be significantly greater than the economic hit we would take from the whole population getting infected. Obviously economics isn't the only viewpoint, and the loss of life is enormously significant and tragic, but if our society isn't back to normal by then I honestly can't imagine what sort of world we will come back to on the other side of all this.

The economic consensus seems to be that a society where this is rampant and widespread but business is still active is a better economic scenario than one in which the virus is somewhat contained but restaurants, shops, airlines etc have closed permanently and almost all casual work has dried up.

It's worth noting I would never normally be one making the economic argument. Generally I err always on the human side of things, and that is my primary concern in this situation. I just think for all those expecting that we will go into prolonged months of a shut down society, it's worth noting that doing so would actually destroy our economy. Not hit it a bit, not create something as bad as the GFC, but actually destroy it beyond recognition.

At a certain point the normal economic function of things may no longer be possible even for the most committed capitalists. We're not seeing modelling that governments have access to for the most part. But this report focussing on the US and UK https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf is pretty alarming- although I haven't found much expert commentary on it yet and am obviously not one myself. It concludes (or perhaps speculates) that suppression measures (social distancing, case isolation, home quarantine) may have to remain in place until large percentages of the population can be vaccinated to prevent the overwhelming of health systems and mass deaths. The key figure there is the 18 months+ that may be required for the development and distribution of a vaccine.

If this is true and it's not just a matter of suppressing the virus in the first instance, but of maintaining that suppression for extended periods, a complete suspension or transformation of the normal function of things may be inevitable. Of course that's just one scenario, but it's still eye opening.

I agree what you're saying about the economic consequences of it, but it's quite one thing for political or business leaders to declare things are back to normal and another for the population at large to feel comfortable going about their normal life. It seems that we're only at the outset of the epidemic in Australia and already anecdotal evidence amongst my group of friends, colleagues and acquaintances suggests people are getting more uncomfortable with going anywhere where large crowds will be unless they have to, and are looking to minimise social contact to varying degrees.

This will only get worse as infection numbers rise, and that's what's going to be the biggest barrier to life and the economy normalising by may or even June. You're quite right, though, it'll mean things are very dire by that point

If things return to normal this year in some way, I'd hope we've already learned something about the sorts of labour that we ignore and undervalue. Transport, supermarket, care (child/aged etc), farm and delivery workers, cleaners etc are considered 'unskilled' and often horrendously exploited despite the fact that they're vital to the continued function of society. Most office jobs not so much.

 

[Maroon Monsoon]

If things return to normal this year in some way, I'd hope we've already learned something about the sorts of labour that we ignore and undervalue. Transport, supermarket, care (child/aged etc), farm and delivery workers, cleaners etc are considered 'unskilled' and often horrendously exploited despite the fact that they're vital to the continued function of society. Most office jobs not so much.

I am confident absolutely nothing will be learned from this, in the same way nothing was learned from the gfc, nothing was learned from the European economic crisis, nothing has been learned from the Greek economic collapse, the election of trump and brexit, and it seems nothing will be learned from the recent bushfire season. I really hope I'm wrong, but I think for those in actual positions of power the current social and economic structures are an article of faith onto which reality can never intrude for long