Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact IV “Phasing into the New Normal”

[ZergMinion]

I'm starting to think the path forward is to find a way where the overall number of cases stays under hospital capacity and then get on with life from there. Hopefully for Australia, this allows us to get to phase 4 while managing outbreaks.

Hopefully we get a vaccine otherwise we'll have to live with it. This could have long reaching impacts on air travel and live sport/events.

Isn't this just your original view from March repackaged a little? I doubt hospital workers and teachers would be thrilled if this was the plan we went with.

We need to keep in mind the incredibly severe economic damage that will be done if we open up too fast and have to lock down again, and the people in charge do seem to be doing that. Also many people will not go out and spend if they don't think it's safe. There is no racing back to normal to save the economy here. It's just not possible.

 

[Biggie]

 

[06Premiers]

I wish the stats were released a different way.
No point scaring people with the big numbers, just say how many are currently active.

 

[Dazzler9]

I wish the stats were released a different way.
No point scaring people with the big numbers, just say how many are currently active.

It's currently 6 in WA

 

[Biggie]

 

[ZergMinion]

I wish the stats were released a different way.
No point scaring people with the big numbers, just say how many are currently active.

Every person with the virus can give it to two or more other people under normal circumstances, and that gets out of hand really fast. Listing only known currently active cases would give people a false sense of security, and if recent times have proven anything it's that people are unbelievably bad at assessing risk.

TL;DR version - scaring people will save lives.

 

[Rowan18]

Isn't this just your original view from March repackaged a little? I doubt hospital workers and teachers would be thrilled if this was the plan we went with.

We need to keep in mind the incredibly severe economic damage that will be done if we open up too fast and have to lock down again, and the people in charge do seem to be doing that. Also many people will not go out and spend if they don't think it's safe. There is no racing back to normal to save the economy here. It's just not possible.

I dont know what my view in March was - other than I've certainly changed it many times given how much has happened since then!

I wasnt suggesting a race back to old ways. More that we may need to find a level that is sustainable and learn to live with it. This probably wouldn't include large public events, unrestricted air travel etc. I think this is what the government is aiming for if I'm understanding their messaging. Rollback in stages and stop if the virus gets out of hand.

 

[MrKK]

Isn't this just your original view from March repackaged a little? I doubt hospital workers and teachers would be thrilled if this was the plan we went with.

We need to keep in mind the incredibly severe economic damage that will be done if we open up too fast and have to lock down again, and the people in charge do seem to be doing that. Also many people will not go out and spend if they don't think it's safe. There is no racing back to normal to save the economy here. It's just not possible.

We're doing quite an experiment in opening up already, using schools. My son's primary school of 800 kids has >90% attending each day. That's a lot of interactions when you add in their families, who then go to the shops or attending their work.

This has been going on statewide in SA for a couple of weeks and we're still getting 0 new cases. I'm increasingly convinced there won't be a second spike of any degree that we can't handle. Maybe isolated outbreaks like the Vic meatworks.

 

[ZergMinion]

We're doing quite an experiment in opening up already, using schools. My son's primary school of 800 kids has >90% attending each day. That's a lot of interactions when you add in their families, who then go to the shops or attending their work.

This has been going on statewide in SA for a couple of weeks and we're still getting 0 new cases. I'm increasingly convinced there won't be a second spike of any degree that we can't handle. Maybe isolated outbreaks like the Vic meatworks.

I think it'll come down to how well new cases can be isolated and contact traced. If that one guy from WA the other day doesn't lead to a spike it'll be good. The timing of his case is unfortunate, as things were really crazy over here pre-mothers day, but we might get lucky.

I think we can hit zero known active cases over here which would be a brilliant result. How many active cases in SA right now?

 

[MrKK]

I think it'll come down to how well new cases can be isolated and contact traced. If that one guy from WA the other day doesn't lead to a spike it'll be good. The timing of his case is unfortunate, as things were really crazy over here pre-mothers day, but we might get lucky.

I think we can hit zero known active cases over here which would be a brilliant result. How many active cases in SA right now?

1 active case in SA.

 

[Avalor]

1 active case in SA.

Brilliant, but let's have the hub in Victoria.

 

[Chris_6678]

1,407,654 Coronavirus Cases and 231 Active in WA - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in WA

www.covidlive.com.au

2408 tests conducted yesterday which is a massive increase.

 

[MrWoollie]

I wish the stats were released a different way.
No point scaring people with the big numbers, just say how many are currently active.

I actually wish the figures included totals and actives.

WA 553 +0 (6)
for total cases, change, number active.

 

[Biggie]

 

[Ok Boomer]

So what happens if we get to 0 active cases in the state. How long will we remain in our risk averse bubble?

We have bought time to gain a better understanding of this virus but Scomo was right for once when we said we cannot stay under the doona indefinitely.

 

[Chris_6678]

So what happens if we get to 0 active cases in the state. How long will we remain in our risk averse bubble?

We have bought time to gain a better understanding of this virus but Scomo was right for once when we said we cannot stay under the doona indefinitely.

I think once the cases reach 0 they will open more restrictions and see where it goes. The hospitals are now prepared for outbreaks unlike 3-4 months ago. This virus will never go away until a vaccine is created and that could be another year away.

We have had some outbreaks like the ones in Tasmania, aged care facility's in NSW and the meat works in Victoria and have been able to do mass testings in each cluster and then isolate those that need to be.

 

[ZergMinion]

So what happens if we get to 0 active cases in the state. How long will we remain in our risk averse bubble?

We have bought time to gain a better understanding of this virus but Scomo was right for once when we said we cannot stay under the doona indefinitely.

If we get to 0 active cases I suspect the state will largely open up aside from interstate travel (maybe NT and SA will be allowed). The only way the economy gets going again is if there's almost no risk of catching coronavirus if you leave your house. People will become more confident with that as time goes on and we successfully navigate any small outbreaks (ie they stay small and contained).

If we open up, have an outbreak and community transmission gets going again, everything grinds to a halt once more. You can't force people to keep putting themselves at risk.

 

[Forward Press]

If we get to 0 active cases I suspect the state will largely open up aside from interstate travel (maybe NT and SA will be allowed). The only way the economy gets going again is if there's almost no risk of catching coronavirus if you leave your house. People will become more confident with that as time goes on and we successfully navigate any small outbreaks (ie they stay small and contained).

If we open up, have an outbreak and community transmission gets going again, everything grinds to a halt once more. You can't force people to keep putting themselves at risk.

Yeah, this.

You have to be almost certain there won't be a second wave when loosening restrictions, or at the very least outbreaks can be quickly traced and controlled.

If you reopen too fast or too soon and cases pick up, people will stay home again anyway as governments are forced to reimpose restrictions and the economy is tanked again. From both a public health and economic perspective it is far better to be safe than sorry with this thing.

 

[Ok Boomer]

If we get to 0 active cases I suspect the state will largely open up aside from interstate travel (maybe NT and SA will be allowed). The only way the economy gets going again is if there's almost no risk of catching coronavirus if you leave your house. People will become more confident with that as time goes on and we successfully navigate any small outbreaks (ie they stay small and contained).

If we open up, have an outbreak and community transmission gets going again, everything grinds to a halt once more. You can't force people to keep putting themselves at risk.

Small outbreaks will be small outbreaks if testing is increased. We cannot panic and close everything if a few cases flare up and we cannot be locked up ready to jump at shadows. Keeping borders closed is not sustainable medium term, as great as it is to have a break from those Eastern Staters.

I'm not a doubter of the seriousness of this virus. I have international interests and I was still screaming for borders to close 2 weeks before they did, mainly because we needed to buy time.

 

[ZergMinion]

Small outbreaks will be small outbreaks if testing is increased. We cannot panic and close everything if a few cases flare up and we cannot be locked up ready to jump at shadows. Keeping borders closed is not sustainable medium term, as great as it is to have a break from those Eastern Staters.

Testing currently has a chance of false negatives (no false positives thankfully), so it's not going to protect us 100% from outbreaks.

The economy is rooted and it's going to take years to recover (largely because the way we were running it was completely unsustainable). We're living through a major historical event. Opening borders isn't going to fix any of that, and all available evidence suggests it will make things worse.

We're seriously only two months in and the government stimulus packages are scheduled to last at least 6 months. What's another 2-4 weeks of caution going to trash that hasn't already been trashed?

 

[Biggie]

 

[ziad]

So with one from OS, one up near the Qld coast there are 2 in Sydney out of a population of 4.9M.
School closed for a 24 hr clean and tracing

 

[DanWCE]

Vic and NSW churning out some big testing numbers lately. Does anyone have the data on how our testing % of population compares to them lately? We've been doing much less, but I figure there's much less of us.

 

[Chris_6678]

Vic and NSW churning out some big testing numbers lately. Does anyone have the data on how our testing % of population compares to them lately? We've been doing much less, but I figure there's much less of us.

1,407,654 Coronavirus Cases and 231 Active in WA - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in WA

covidlive.com.au

that link has how many we have tested weekly.

Also a good link to compare each state.

 

[Biggie]