Fixture Could Essendon win the last 9 and make finals

[carnthedons]

With Brisbane at the Gabba in there? You’re kidding yourself.

I fully expect us to win a few, get a worse draft pick, give undeserved optimism and then settle into our customary mediocrity again. It’s the Essington way.

Self quote but pretty comfortable with this tbh

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I sure hope they do, another eighth placed finish and elimination final loss would be chefs kiss.

it would be so Essington though.

 

[Mootsy]

it would be so Essington though.

yeh

 

[Stopher]

No.

 

[mcgarnacle]

I'd say the probability of a team at 2-10 ending up on a run and in finals is remote. Each subsequent match would be be played at finals intensity and that has to be mentally tiring for the group.

Similar circumstances (but a slightly better starting position) in the 2009 NRL season however with Parramatta with a of record 5-10-1, and were led by a freak of a purple patch from Jarryd Hayne to finish the regular season at 12-11-1 and scrapping into the finals in 8th. They ended up winning all 3 finals to make the GF but lost that against Melbourne who were then stripped of the premiership for salary cap cheating. Parramatta weren't awarded the premiership.

 

[I Remember Bluey]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/run-home-see-where-your-club-will-finish-the-2022-season-on-our-predicted-ladder/news-story/7905866816c5bbdc272953295ed428c4

The door is ajar for an unlikely – but mathematically possible – Bombers finals appearance. Here’s how the final five rounds have to play out for Essendon to make it.

Dare to dream, Bombers fans.
After a disastrous start to the season there was talk of rebuilds and even replacing the coach. But suddenly Essendon is on a roll.

They have won three of their past five, taking the scalps of Brisbane, Gold Coast and St Kilda. Meanwhile, the teams above them are stumbling with seemingly no one wanting to secure eighth spot. Mathematically, Essendon can overtake them all and play finals. But is it probable?

The first part of the equation is for the Bombers to run the table for the rest of the season, and looking at the fixture that’s not a far-fetched idea, with their toughest opponents at the start and finish of the run home. If luck finally goes against Collingwood on Sunday after a string of close wins, the Bombers then face North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium), GWS Giants (Giants Stadium) and Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium), before a final-round showdown against Richmond that could decide eighth spot.

With the Dons only able to get to 11 wins and with a poor percentage (86.1), the key is for none of their rivals to reach 11 victories for the season. Given the recent form of Richmond, St Kilda and Co and their difficult fixtures that might not require anything too outlandish. The trick is everything has to go Essendon’s way – and it needs to fulfil its end of the bargain.

Here’s how the key results would have to fall over the next five rounds for the Bombers to make it:

ROUND 19

Essendon d Collingwood

Fremantle d Richmond

Geelong d Port Adelaide

Brisbane Lions d Gold Coast

Melbourne d Western Bulldogs

West Coast d St Kilda

ROUND 20

Essendon d North Melbourne

Collingwood d Port Adelaide

Geelong d Western Bulldogs

Brisbane Lions d Richmond

ROUND 21

Essendon d GWS Giants

Hawthorn d Gold Coast

Fremantle d Western Bulldogs

Geelong d St Kilda

Port Adelaide d Richmond

ROUND 22

Essendon d Port Adelaide

Geelong d Gold Coast

ROUND 23

Essendon d Richmond

Hawthorn d Western Bulldogs

Sydney d St Kilda

If that all happens, the final ladder will look like this:

FINAL LADDER

1. Geelong 18-4

2. Melbourne 17-5

3. Brisbane Lions 17-5

4. Sydney 16-6

5. Fremantle 16-6

6. Carlton 14-8

7. Collingwood 13-9

8. Essendon 11-11

9. Richmond 10-12

10. Western Bulldogs 10-12

11. Port Adelaide 10-12

12. Gold Coast 10-12

13. St Kilda 10-12

14. Hawthorn 9-13

15. Adelaide 6-16

16. GWS Giants 5-17

17. West Coast 4-18

18. North Melbourne 2-20

... and the first week of finals will look like this:

QF: Geelong v Sydney

QF: Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

EF: Fremantle v Essendon

EF: Carlton v Collingwood

Go Bombers.

 

[tigs2010]

Only need 20 results to go their way including not ****ing up 5 times themselves.

They’re basically a lock from here Robbo

 

[Ambrosia]

Only need 20 results to go their way including not ******* up 5 times themselves.

They’re basically a lock from here Robbo

I reckon there’s more chance of all the results falling our way then Essendon winning the last 5 games.

 

[donsupreme]

What sort of idiot writes these articles and does such Olympic-level mental gymnastics to come up with those scenarios?

 

[Crankyhawk]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/run-home-see-where-your-club-will-finish-the-2022-season-on-our-predicted-ladder/news-story/7905866816c5bbdc272953295ed428c4

The door is ajar for an unlikely – but mathematically possible – Bombers finals appearance. Here’s how the final five rounds have to play out for Essendon to make it.

Dare to dream, Bombers fans.
After a disastrous start to the season there was talk of rebuilds and even replacing the coach. But suddenly Essendon is on a roll.

They have won three of their past five, taking the scalps of Brisbane, Gold Coast and St Kilda. Meanwhile, the teams above them are stumbling with seemingly no one wanting to secure eighth spot. Mathematically, Essendon can overtake them all and play finals. But is it probable?

The first part of the equation is for the Bombers to run the table for the rest of the season, and looking at the fixture that’s not a far-fetched idea, with their toughest opponents at the start and finish of the run home. If luck finally goes against Collingwood on Sunday after a string of close wins, the Bombers then face North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium), GWS Giants (Giants Stadium) and Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium), before a final-round showdown against Richmond that could decide eighth spot.

With the Dons only able to get to 11 wins and with a poor percentage (86.1), the key is for none of their rivals to reach 11 victories for the season. Given the recent form of Richmond, St Kilda and Co and their difficult fixtures that might not require anything too outlandish. The trick is everything has to go Essendon’s way – and it needs to fulfil its end of the bargain.

Here’s how the key results would have to fall over the next five rounds for the Bombers to make it:

ROUND 19

Essendon d Collingwood

Fremantle d Richmond

Geelong d Port Adelaide

Brisbane Lions d Gold Coast

Melbourne d Western Bulldogs

West Coast d St Kilda

ROUND 20

Essendon d North Melbourne

Collingwood d Port Adelaide

Geelong d Western Bulldogs

Brisbane Lions d Richmond

ROUND 21

Essendon d GWS Giants

Hawthorn d Gold Coast

Fremantle d Western Bulldogs

Geelong d St Kilda

Port Adelaide d Richmond

ROUND 22

Essendon d Port Adelaide

Geelong d Gold Coast

ROUND 23

Essendon d Richmond

Hawthorn d Western Bulldogs

Sydney d St Kilda

If that all happens, the final ladder will look like this:

FINAL LADDER

1. Geelong 18-4

2. Melbourne 17-5

3. Brisbane Lions 17-5

4. Sydney 16-6

5. Fremantle 16-6

6. Carlton 14-8

7. Collingwood 13-9

8. Essendon 11-11

9. Richmond 10-12

10. Western Bulldogs 10-12

11. Port Adelaide 10-12

12. Gold Coast 10-12

13. St Kilda 10-12

14. Hawthorn 9-13

15. Adelaide 6-16

16. GWS Giants 5-17

17. West Coast 4-18

18. North Melbourne 2-20

... and the first week of finals will look like this:

QF: Geelong v Sydney

QF: Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

EF: Fremantle v Essendon

EF: Carlton v Collingwood

Go Bombers.

falls over if hawks also beat north, saints and richmond
then hawks are 11-11 with a better percentage than bombers

 

[Gavin Excell]

Only need 20 results to go their way including not ******* up 5 times themselves.

They’re basically a lock from here Robbo

I think the TAB market has the final word on how likely it is

$301

 

[tigs2010]

I think the TAB market has the final word on how likely it is

$301

Are they giving odds for the opposite? Would like to put the house on it lol

 

[Gavin Excell]

Are they giving odds for the opposite? Would like to put the house on it lol

Sadly, no price is given

 

[3rd Grade Maggy]

What sort of idiot writes these articles and does such Olympic-level mental gymnastics to come up with those scenarios?

14 year old me.

 

[Osho]

It's possible. Espesh if Jerry Springer, sorry, Jake Stringer

25

Jake Stringer

Age

30

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.8

5star

D

8.5

2star

K

7.0

3star

HB

1.5

1star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

4star

G

2.5

5star

D

7.2

2star

K

4.8

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

, can become more consistent, and the rest of the team improves by 40%, starting this week.

 

[jezzajay]

Tough Scenario with 2 away finals

You want a scenario where you don't leave Melbourne

View attachment 1449677

This has to happen!! Go Bombers!!!

 

[pazza]

Probably need to get that percentage higher given how the teams above them are spluttering with better percentages.

Best chances to boost it are against North, GWS and Port.

Have this feeling the match against Richmond could be the deciding factor in the end.

 

[Dave]

What sort of idiot writes these articles and does such Olympic-level mental gymnastics to come up with those scenarios?

Gotta fill that rice bowl man.

 

[September Action]

Is Essendon even on the ladder?

 

[NetworkNerd]

Probably need to get that percentage higher given how the teams above them are spluttering with better percentages.

Best chances to boost it are against North, GWS and Port.

Have this feeling the match against Richmond could be the deciding factor in the end.

Not really

You can drop that game and still make the 8

 

[Ati Tude]

I think the TAB market has the final word on how likely it is

$301

 

[NetworkNerd]

Almost impossible to do now.. but still a chance

 

[TheUnicorn]

Almost impossible to do now.. but still a chance

View attachment 1455349