Could this guys team really work?

[Judd_Magic]

A guy I know that is in my league has told me his basic layout of his team and its quite scary.

His midfield is -

Ablett, Judd, Bartel, Cooney, Harvey, Selwood.


Forward line contains -

Franklin, J.Brown, Goodwin and Rioli


He admits that his backline is bare as bones but with a half decent forward line and a kick arse midfield could he still cause some serious damage?

He may strike it lucky and pick a bunch of cheap backline players that score half decently all year.

I know its a bit pie in the sky stuff but you never know.

Thoughts?

 

[PAFCsince1870]

I doubt it.

Who are his ruckmen?

Most of the gun players he has are either overpriced, or at the very least top-priced.

Ablett, Harvey, Cooney and Franklin are all coming off career years and one would expect their value to go down.

The only value I can see is JB and Judd. I just can't see how a team with such a lack of thriftiness could do very well at all.

 

[Judd_Magic]

I will find out his rucks mate and post them in here.

I don't think he is worried about overall position, just league win.

Its gonna be a fascinating supercoach season in my league seeing teams like his going around.

 

[shiva25]

I doubt it.

Who are his ruckmen?

Most of the gun players he has are either overpriced, or at the very least top-priced.

Ablett, Harvey, Cooney and Franklin are all coming off career years and one would expect their value to go down.

The only value I can see is JB and Judd. I just can't see how a team with such a lack of thriftiness could do very well at all.

Theres nothing wrong with having overpriced players if they are going to perform.Out of that lot Ablett,Harvey,Judd and Franklin would be players i would pay the money for as they are keepers that will perform most of the time and have the added ability to clock up huge scores on a consistant basis.The big mistake that people make in this game and i hear it every year is the Abletts,Harveys etc are too overpriced and they will pick him up later when he comes down in price.The problem is if you dont have some of these guns at the start you could be waiting 10 weeks before they come down in price and by then its too late to play catch up
I have chosen to load up on the backs and mids this year as i see hardly any value for most of the forwards listed

 

[ozzyoslo]

I'm backing that you beat him by end of season.

 

[JHF1870]

Seriously doubt this guy will get anywhere, I tried this at the start of last year and boasted about my forward line, then wondered why my backline players kept averaging 50points.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Theres nothing wrong with having overpriced players if they are going to perform.Out of that lot Ablett,Harvey,Judd and Franklin would be players i would pay the money for as they are keepers that will perform most of the time and have the added ability to clock up huge scores on a consistant basis.The big mistake that people make in this game and i hear it every year is the Abletts,Harveys etc are too overpriced and they will pick him up later when he comes down in price.The problem is if you dont have some of these guns at the start you could be waiting 10 weeks before they come down in price and by then its too late to play catch up
I have chosen to load up on the backs and mids this year as i see hardly any value for most of the forwards listed

Except history suggests that players just don't back up an Ablett-like season. Taking the value keepers (Judd, JB, Cornes etc) allows you to take 1 or 2 more keepers than you would be able to if you load up on Hodge, Ablett and Bartel etc, which gives you a better long term plan.

As far as I'm concerned you should be striving to get as many keepers as you can in your first 22 for Round 1. As long as they'll finish in the top 10 of their position (top 5 for rucks), I don't think you're losing anything.

The only place Ablett's price is going is down, I reckon that's just about a certainty.

 

[shiva25]

Except history suggests that players just don't back up an Ablett-like season. Taking the value keepers (Judd, JB, Cornes etc) allows you to take 1 or 2 more keepers than you would be able to if you load up on Hodge, Ablett and Bartel etc, which gives you a better long term plan.

As far as I'm concerned you should be striving to get as many keepers as you can in your first 22 for Round 1. As long as they'll finish in the top 10 of their position (top 5 for rucks), I don't think you're losing anything.

The only place Ablett's price is going is down, I reckon that's just about a certainty.

I dont think history comes into the equation when it comes to Ablett who has been head and shoulders above the rest of the midfielders for the last 2 years in SC.There is simply no reason why he cant have as good a year this year as what he had last season and when you have him as captain he makes a huge difference to your score.Who could forget that 250 point game he had last season.Those that had him broke away from the pack and there is only a select few players in this comp that could ever put out that sort of score. That is why he is simply a must have as he is consistanly capable of putting together high scores.I have found it fairly easy build a side around Ablett this season

 

[PAFCsince1870]

I dont think history comes into the equation when it comes to Ablett who has been head and shoulders above the rest of the midfielders for the last 2 years in SC.

He averaged 108 in 2007, hardly head and shoulders above everyone else.

Of course history comes into the equation. See Judd or Tredrea for players who've averaged 130 (or near enough) for a year and never been able to back it up. Show me a player who has done it 2 years in a row and I will buy into your argument. I learnt my lesson picking Judd for the start of the 2007 season.

Who could forget that 250 point game he had last season.

Who could forget Daniel Kerr's? Even Corey Jones has a 200+, should I pick him? Interestingly Kerr and Ablett's massive scores were against Sydney, something I think is a result of the low possession and high clearance count, something which is fairly unique to a game involving Sydney, and probably means it's unlikely a score like that can be replicated against most other teams. Ablett didn't even play 22 games, so due to the freak 250, you're paying for an inflated average that is based only on 18 games, which is even less of a guide for future performance.

No one is saying he is not elite, but the reason why people who had him last year got the jump was partly due to the price they paid for him. Thinking you'll get the same advantage this year when he is priced above $700k is just a flawed theory.

 

[Team Mo']

If he just wants league win tell him to put an unfinished team into round 1...

Then at the end of round 3 pick the side with all the gun rookies and players who will go/down etc...

 

[Judd_Magic]

If he just wants league win tell him to put an unfinished team into round 1...

Then at the end of round 3 pick the side with all the gun rookies and players who will go/down etc...

Should be able to kick people out who do that I reckon.

 

[shiva25]

He averaged 108 in 2007, hardly head and shoulders above everyone else.

Of course history comes into the equation. See Judd or Tredrea for players who've averaged 130 (or near enough) for a year and never been able to back it up. Show me a player who has done it 2 years in a row and I will buy into your argument. I learnt my lesson picking Judd for the start of the 2007 season.



Who could forget Daniel Kerr's? Even Corey Jones has a 200+, should I pick him? Interestingly Kerr and Ablett's massive scores were against Sydney, something I think is a result of the low possession and high clearance count, something which is fairly unique to a game involving Sydney, and probably means it's unlikely a score like that can be replicated against most other teams. Ablett didn't even play 22 games, so due to the freak 250, you're paying for an inflated average that is based only on 18 games, which is even less of a guide for future performance.

No one is saying he is not elite, but the reason why people who had him last year got the jump was partly due to the price they paid for him. Thinking you'll get the same advantage this year when he is priced above $700k is just a flawed theory.

I am willing to bet that Ablett will back it up this season again because he is that good that only injury will stop him from reaching those heights of last year.You seem to be forgetting that along with Abletts 250 point game last year he had at least 7 games over the 160 point mark which is something your Kerrs or Corey Jones couldnt do regularly throughout last season and if you had him as captain thats a big jump in points your able to gain over people that dont have him
He didnt really even drop that much in value until late in the season when he got injured so if you plan on playing the waiting game for his price to drop before picking him up you could be waiting for ever and by then it will be far too late to catch up
Lastly i still think youll have an advantage if you have him from round 1 as his value of 712k is only 84k more than what his starting price was last year which is hardly a massive enough difference for you to allow yourself more cash for any other better players in other positions

 

[PAFCsince1870]

I am willing to bet that Ablett will back it up this season again because he is that good

Bookmarked.

You're ignoring that he will have to create history to do it. No one that I can find has backed those kinds of scores up the next year.

In a game about minimizing risk, that's a big gamble. Whilst he needs an epic season to prove you right, he only needs a bad game or two early, and his price will plummet. That's when people jump on and you've already lost big time.

Good luck with it though

Lastly i still think youll have an advantage if you have him from round 1 as his value of 712k is only 84k more than what his starting price was last year

This just means he is more chance to go down.

 

[shiva25]

Bookmarked.

You're ignoring that he will have to create history to do it. No one that I can find has backed those kinds of scores up the next year.

In a game about minimizing risk, that's a big gamble. Whilst he needs an epic season to prove you right, he only needs a bad game or two early, and his price will plummet. That's when people jump on and you've already lost big time.

Good luck with it though



This just means he is more chance to go down.

Your probably right in saying no one else has backed it up 2 years running but as i stated earlier he is that good that he is the type of player that can do it.No one can tag him and i cant think of any reason he can be stopped other than injury
You say this game is about minimizing risk an i agree with you to a certain extent but having Ablett is hardly a risky proposition and its those risks you take with the other players in your side thats going to proove your worth.You also risk not having any big scores from him should he start the season well so it can work either way.
Your not going to win this comp or be highly ranked if you play safe either and more often than not those people who take the right amount of risks in the right places are the ones that are likely to finish higher in the rankings

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Your probably right in saying no one else has backed it up 2 years running but as i stated earlier he is that good that he is the type of player that can do it.No one can tag him and i cant think of any reason he can be stopped other than injury
You say this game is about minimizing risk an i agree with you to a certain extent but having Ablett is hardly a risky proposition and its those risks you take with the other players in your side thats going to proove your worth.You also risk not having any big scores from him should he start the season well so it can work either way.
Your not going to win this comp or be highly ranked if you play safe either and more often than not those people who take the right amount of risks in the right places are the ones that are likely to finish higher in the rankings

I would think the only player who MAY have backed it up would have been Buckley in his prime, but there are no scores to verify that.

Of course picking Ablett itself isn't a risk. It's what your sacrificing elsewhere to get it that is the risk, especially if his price drops violently.

Isn't there more value in a Judd? 120k cheaper, has had a season (2006) as good if not better than Ablett's, is an SC machine and is unlikely to go down much, if at all.

With that extra 120k I could then turn that 450k deadweight forward into a Deledio or O'Keefe, or upgrade a Swallow or Mackay to Hasleby. That is the best example of minimizing risk I can think of.

 

[Rayzorwire]

Isn't there more value in a Judd? 120k cheaper, has had a season (2006) as good if not better than Ablett's, is an SC machine and is unlikely to go down much, if at all.

On the flipside, there's every chance Judd or any of the gun keepers could have season's like the Cornes brothers did last year PAFC. Nobody thought pre-season that they could reach the lowly SC depths they did last year. If Ablett plays at $550K score level then picks up a persistent injury problem like Chad did, there's still enough cash to trade in another prime midfielder.

If any $500-550K player does the same, you can easily be stuck in no-man's land.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

On the flipside, there's every chance Judd or any of the gun keepers could have season's like the Cornes brothers did last year PAFC. Nobody thought pre-season that they could reach the lowly SC depths they did last year. If Ablett plays at $550K score level then picks up a persistent injury problem like Chad did, there's still enough cash to trade in another prime midfielder.

If any $500-550K player does the same, you can easily be stuck in no-man's land.

You're comparing K Cornes to Judd in SC?

If a 550k player averages 90 he will lose about 80k of value. If Ablett Jnr averaged 90 he would lose about 230k. See the difference?

If you pick a 550k player coming off his worst season for a long time (eg. Dal Santo) chances are slim he is going to be even worse this season. He is far less likely to go down in value than Ablett. It's just a safer bet, and the extra 170k can be used elsewhere.

People have short memories. Some of the best SC players of the past 5 years are bargains this year, but people are blinded by one season and thus overpaying for Ablett and Brent Harvey etc.

Good luck to them

 

[shiva25]

On the flipside, there's every chance Judd or any of the gun keepers could have season's like the Cornes brothers did last year PAFC. Nobody thought pre-season that they could reach the lowly SC depths they did last year. If Ablett plays at $550K score level then picks up a persistent injury problem like Chad did, there's still enough cash to trade in another prime midfielder.

If any $500-550K player does the same, you can easily be stuck in no-man's land.

Thats a very good point.Even if you do lose money on the expensive premium players early on through lack of form or injury you would of had a chance to look plenty of suitable replacements at lower prices that you can trade in and make that cash up down the track

 

[Impromptu]

A guy I know that is in my league has told me his basic layout of his team and its quite scary.

His midfield is -

Ablett, Judd, Bartel, Cooney, Harvey, Selwood.


Forward line contains -

Franklin, J.Brown, Goodwin and Rioli


He admits that his backline is bare as bones but with a half decent forward line and a kick arse midfield could he still cause some serious damage?

He may strike it lucky and pick a bunch of cheap backline players that score half decently all year.

I know its a bit pie in the sky stuff but you never know.

Thoughts?

I believe that's a bad format. As eventually people will have those midfield but it is harder for him to upgrade since he has used his funds to get the premium and they have to consistently get high scores to stop others from getting his players. However, other players don't need to get those high scores to maintain their price.

Okay - there are 2 ways to make money (or buy players cheap)

1. rookies increase (rookie increase by $50k)
2. premiums decrease (ie ablett drops by 50k)

Either way the net effect is the same - by having ablett you have to his par score say 135 for the price to stay the same, whereas kornes (lol) is $505 needs to get 100. Hence, there is a higher chance that you'd be able to get Ablett than Kornes (in terms of net position).

I'm not sure my explanation is clear (had a few beers). Let me try one more time. You have $10

1. Buy Ablett $7 and save $3
2. Buy Impromptu's Clanger Boy Kornes ($5) and save $3 (and use $2 somewhere else).

For Ablett ($7) to maintain price he needs 140
for Kornes ($5) to maintain price he needs 100

Hence if Ablett scores 100 and drops to $5, the guy with Ablett has already got him so can't get him again. The guy that doesn't have Ablett can make $2 simply by getting Ablett, which he can use elsewhere.

OF COURSE having Ablett will give you a higher chance of 140 since that is his average. Kornes on the other hand needs to get 100 to maintain price, however note if he increases his average to say 110, his price increases by $1 and effectively if someone wants to get Kornes then they need to pay an extra $1.

AH I GIVE UP LOL.....I am too tired (and drunk) to read what I just said and see if it makes any sense.

 

[JHF1870]

You're comparing K Cornes to Judd in SC?

If a 550k player averages 90 he will lose about 80k of value. If Ablett Jnr averaged 90 he would lose about 230k. See the difference?

If you pick a 550k player coming off his worst season for a long time (eg. Dal Santo) chances are slim he is going to be even worse this season. He is far less likely to go down in value than Ablett. It's just a safer bet, and the extra 170k can be used elsewhere.

People have short memories. Some of the best SC players of the past 5 years are bargains this year, but people are blinded by one season and thus overpaying for Ablett and Brent Harvey etc.

Good luck to them

So so very true, I won't be picking Ablett thats for sure......Jed Adcock is my man this year.....Big bargain

 

[Judd_Magic]

I'm not sure my explanation is clear (had a few beers). Let me try one more time. You have $10

You lost me after that!

 

[Judd_Magic]

So so very true, I won't be picking Ablett thats for sure......Jed Adcock is my man this year.....Big bargain

Why are you so confident that Adcock is such a bargin for Robbie when alot of people are seriously having doubtrs about him?

Just curious to hear you explanation mate.

 

[JHF1870]

Why are you so confident that Adcock is such a bargin for Robbie when alot of people are seriously having doubtrs about him?

Just curious to hear you explanation mate.

um er er.....because hes hot!!!, Um I mean I think he's gonna be like hot on the field um like ability wise.......SHUTUP!

 

[GoinApe]

Why are you so confident that Adcock is such a bargin for Robbie when alot of people are seriously having doubtrs about him?

Just curious to hear you explanation mate.

I have my doubts about him. But at 400k he's worth the risk. Cant see his price going much further south. Could end up with a gun round the 550k mark.

 

[BILC]

A guy I know that is in my league has told me his basic layout of his team and its quite scary.

His midfield is -

Ablett, Judd, Bartel, Cooney, Harvey, Selwood.


Forward line contains -

Franklin, J.Brown, Goodwin and Rioli


He admits that his backline is bare as bones but with a half decent forward line and a kick arse midfield could he still cause some serious damage?

He may strike it lucky and pick a bunch of cheap backline players that score half decently all year.

I know its a bit pie in the sky stuff but you never know.

Thoughts?

my midfield is pretty close to being as good as that and still have a pretty good backline and forward line so i dont think it will work