Could this guys team really work?

[PAFCsince1870]

ha!, I can't tell you that mate.

I'm happy to tell you guys I don't have him, but I have a feeling you might already know that

 

[Walesy]

I'm happy to tell you guys I don't have him, but I have a feeling you might already know that

but c'mon! It's half way through the SECOND QUARTER.

And Ablett is on 122 Supercoach points!!!

*goes back to drawing board*

 

[Rayzorwire]

Kornes just isn't in the same league as Judd in SC.

And I still didn't say he was, merely used he and Chad as examples of premium priced players who dropped like stones last year.

Hmm not really, you're still losing money. Much more than say if Judd gets injured.

That's a worst case scenario though. Ablett could quite conceivably go higher and end up a ridiculous price that makes his starting price look like a bargain. Anyone without him from the beginning could be at a severe disadvantage. The worst case scenario of getting him is losing some cash, but still getting a premium to offset that.

Obviously everyone sees risk assessment differently, but I see the worst case scenario as hardly the end of the world, and a massive upside if he maintains price or improves. I'm not concerned about the history aspect, I do believe there's a very good chance he can get even better.

 

[shiva25]

And I still didn't say he was, merely used he and Chad as examples of premium priced players who dropped like stones last year.



That's a worst case scenario though. Ablett could quite conceivably go higher and end up a ridiculous price that makes his starting price look like a bargain. Anyone without him from the beginning could be at a severe disadvantage. The worst case scenario of getting him is losing some cash, but still getting a premium to offset that.

Obviously everyone sees risk assessment differently, but I see the worst case scenario as hardly the end of the world, and a massive upside if he maintains price or improves. I'm not concerned about the history aspect, I do believe there's a very good chance he can get even better.

Tend to agree.History is past tense and shouldnt even be considered when choosing players of the calibre of Ablett and there is no reason why he cant produce the same numbers if not better this season again.I think he finished up with about 175 SC point tonight and only played about 50 minutes of the game and i think tonights game would of gone a long way towards swaying a few people into choosing Ablett i would reckon.

 

[MrChristo]

Tend to agree.History is past tense and shouldnt even be considered when choosing players of the calibre of Ablett and there is no reason why he cant produce the same numbers if not better this season again.I think he finished up with about 175 SC point tonight and only played about 50 minutes of the game and i think tonights game would of gone a long way towards swaying a few people into choosing Ablett i would reckon.

(Sorry, getting a bit deep here I know!)...

...But how do you assess the future without reference to the past?

Sure, Ablett could be the 'freak'...but Bartell wasn't, J. Brown wasn't, Goodes wasn't, Judd wasn't...[and still isn't, but that's another story! ]

Don't get me wrong...I agree that there's "no reason why he can't"...except the reason that no-one has before...but that, to me, is still a pretty strong reason!

 

[Rayzorwire]

(Sorry, getting a bit deep here I know!)...

...But how do you assess the future without reference to the past?

Sure, Ablett could be the 'freak'...but Bartell wasn't, J. Brown wasn't, Goodes wasn't, Judd wasn't...[and still isn't, but that's another story! ]

Don't get me wrong...I agree that there's "no reason why he can't"...except the reason that no-one has before...but that, to me, is still a pretty strong reason!

I think it's important to recognise that when we talk about 'history' in SC terms, we're talking about a very small slice of 'history' where we've actually had scores to go on.

For all the players I can think of who haven't been able to 'do it again', there is also a corresponding legitimate reason why they couldn't.

Brown and Judd it's injury and playing in progressively 'worse' teams, Bartel it's the emergence of Ablett and Geelong's growth of midfield depth, etc...

I see none of these legitimate reasons as being likely to block Ablett for the coming season (injury seems the only possibility), so to me that does render the very small sample being talked about at 'SC history' fairly irrelevant.

 

[MrChristo]

I think it's important to recognise that when we talk about 'history' in SC terms, we're talking about a very small slice of 'history' where we've actually had scores to go on.

For all the players I can think of who haven't been able to 'do it again', there is also a corresponding legitimate reason why they couldn't.

Brown and Judd it's injury and playing in progressively 'worse' teams, Bartel it's the emergence of Ablett and Geelong's growth of midfield depth, etc...

I see none of these legitimate reasons as being likely to block Ablett for the coming season (injury seems the only possibility), so to me that does render the very small sample being talked about at 'SC history' fairly irrelevant.

Point kinda well taken......but how much of a "slice of history" is any one's career??
Different animal I know, but do you want to go back further with DT stats? (Just because they do)
Judd 1/7 [seasons] over 85...(100.3 in 2006)
...(and this is all news to me as I go)...Bartel had the same amount of ball (113 DT in 2006 and 2007) but didn't use it so good last year. (124/115 SC).. [one to you...or is it?? ]
Brown has 1/8 over 93...and played just 10 games that year...
Goodes 1/9 over 90 ...
S. Burgoine 1/7 over 85 (91 DT, 115 SC, 2006)
Tredrea...maybe?...95 DT, 125 SC in 2005...but just 2 other years [DT] over 88 in 12 years. (93 in '03, '04)

I dunno...anyone else you can think of?

Like I said, not at all saying it won't happen...but I'd prefer to play the %'s.

BOL

 

[shiva25]

I think it's important to recognise that when we talk about 'history' in SC terms, we're talking about a very small slice of 'history' where we've actually had scores to go on.

For all the players I can think of who haven't been able to 'do it again', there is also a corresponding legitimate reason why they couldn't.

Brown and Judd it's injury and playing in progressively 'worse' teams, Bartel it's the emergence of Ablett and Geelong's growth of midfield depth, etc...

I see none of these legitimate reasons as being likely to block Ablett for the coming season (injury seems the only possibility), so to me that does render the very small sample being talked about at 'SC history' fairly irrelevant.

Thats pretty much a spot on assessment.Ive got no doubt that Judd would have backed it up 2 years running had he not got injured half way through 2007.He was averaging 140 in the 1st 12 rounds before injury struck and to my thinking players like Ablett and Judd who when fully fit are the standout midfielders in the comp and too good to ignore regradless of what history states or what they cost

 

[MrChristo]

He was averaging 140 in the 1st 12 rounds

Av'd 124 through 11 before missing.

too good to ignore regradless of ... what they cost

Good luck with that.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

but c'mon! It's half way through the SECOND QUARTER.

And Ablett is on 122 Supercoach points!!!

*goes back to drawing board*

Yea, up against Doughty, LOL.

What will happen if he scores a 70 in the next couple of weeks? Everyone is off the bandwagon.

 

[Impromptu]

Hall injured/suspended by round 8

Kornes to do his usual 35 possessions for only 50 SC points (Clanger king).


You certainly have some balls Prompts.

Kornes - Everyone - join Impromptu and jump on the Kornes band wagon 47SC in a half
Fevola - back in the leadership team and will run riot
Hall - out of the leadership - but he is indebted to the Swans
B.Johnson - he is captain and goal hungry - love those players
Lucas - ditto - very goal hungry and on 1 year contract

I'm saying 'no' due to everyone but I got a guy feeling the first 3 will run riot... but then I'm kinda scared... Fevola can't be a bad selection..just risky

 

[MrChristo]

Fevola can't be a bad selection..just risky

In a word (or two!) a ****ing interesting man!

Av'd 97 in 2006...take out a 1 and a -13! 2007 and he's @ 101...
...but a legtimate 85 last year (although was up nearly 11 DT points from 2007!)...

Don't want to put my finger on him...so I won't...

 

[Rayzorwire]

Point kinda well taken......but how much of a "slice of history" is any one's career??
Different animal I know, but do you want to go back further with DT stats? (Just because they do)
Judd 1/7 [seasons] over 85...(100.3 in 2006)
...(and this is all news to me as I go)...Bartel had the same amount of ball (113 DT in 2006 and 2007) but didn't use it so good last year. (124/115 SC).. [one to you...or is it?? ]
Brown has 1/8 over 93...and played just 10 games that year...
Goodes 1/9 over 90 ...
S. Burgoine 1/7 over 85 (91 DT, 115 SC, 2006)
Tredrea...maybe?...95 DT, 125 SC in 2005...but just 2 other years [DT] over 88 in 12 years. (93 in '03, '04)

My point was that we can't know what sort of SC scores any of the greats from (even quite recent) past eras would have scored, and how many of them would have racked up big averages in successive (and possibly a number of) seasons. That's what makes 'SC history' a very small sample in the history of football which isn't really worth building into some sort of historical mountain IMO.