COVID-19 / Coronavirus

[Alite]

America is going to get slammed by this. Not just because of their lack of action but also because of the privatisation of their healthcare system.

If I was a person with a family and little money while having a job in the USA and started to feel Ill, and did not have health insurance.... my choice would be... to pay the thousands of dollars in medical bills and then self isolate for 14 days while not getting paid... or... go to work and hope I was OK. ...

The USA’s system is unable to slow the transmission of COVID-19. The USA’s system has barely been capable of testing for COVID-19. And the USA’s government is led by a guy who will not put in place emergency hospitals with oxygen on tap to try to save American lives.

Australia should close our borders to keep out people from the USA... who are our current main source of new COVID-19 cases... and, to be fair, everyone else. Canada has already done this.

A cure may not be that far off with HIV drugs being shown to be effective in killing COVID-19, all be it in a test tube.

The USA has become a sespit of capitalistic bullish;t incapable of saving its own citizens, let alone being a world leader.

Flinchfree: every person that I have met from the USA, I have liked. But I have no doubt that people from the USA will be the same as most others... which is to look after themselves, their kids And family, and their immediate community.

Patriotism is irrelevant when the enemy is already within your boarders.

The USA should be setting up new hospitals / camps with the right facilities to take care of the likely many hundreds of thousands of patients coming their way. But they will not because... who is going to pay... and because of the clown in charge.

Socialism is an ugly word in the USA. But I love Australia’s socialist health system.

 

[flinchfree]

This is the big issue - at the moment if you don't have insurance you have to pay to get tested. Those who can't afford insurance (50% of the total pop) are also those that can't afford to be told they can't work for two weeks. So those people just won't get tested. It will be a miracle if the USA can contain it as a result.

Not true. Has been changed so that regardless of insurance testing is free.
You still need to 'qualify' as far as being in contact with someone known to have Covid, but that will change too....
Testing will be ubiquitously available but the rollout of tests and testers is what's killing the response.
Poor preparation and a President who like much of the conservative base in the US believe in conpiracy and hoaxes over science.
So weird to listen to.

 

[Mississippi]

If I was a person with a family and little money while having a job in the USA and started to feel Ill, and did not have health insurance.... my choice would be... to pay the thousands of dollars in medical bills and then self isolate for 14 days while not getting paid... or... go to work and hope I was OK. ...

The USA’s system is unable to slow the transmission of COVID-19. The USA’s system has barely been capable of testing for COVID-19. And the USA’s government is led by a guy who will not put in place emergency hospitals with oxygen on tap to try to save American lives.

Australia should close our borders to keep out people from the USA... who are our current main source of new COVID-19 cases... and, to be fair, everyone else. Canada has already done this.

A cure may not be that far off with HIV drugs being shown to be effective in killing COVID-19, all be it in a test tube.

The USA has become a sespit of capitalistic bullish;t incapable of saving its own citizens, let alone being a world leader.

Flinchfree: every person that I have met from the USA, I have liked. But I have no doubt that people from the USA will be the same as most others... which is to look after themselves, their kids And family, and their immediate community.

Patriotism is irrelevant when the enemy is already within your boarders.

The USA should be setting up new hospitals / camps with the right facilities to take care of the likely many hundreds of thousands of patients coming their way. But they will not because... who is going to pay... and because of the clown in charge.

Socialism is an ugly word in the USA. But I love Australia’s socialist health system.

Mexico should build a wall to stop Americans crossing the border. They should make the US pay for the wall.

 

[Gralin]

Not true. Has been changed so that regardless of insurance testing is free.
You still need to 'qualify' as far as being in contact with someone known to have Covid, but that will change too....
Testing will be ubiquitously available but the rollout of tests and testers is what's killing the response.
Poor preparation and a President who like much of the conservative base in the US believe in conpiracy and hoaxes over science.
So weird to listen to.

Have you seen the footage of Katie Porter questioning the CDC director until she got a yes out of him for free testing?

It was great work. Hope the relief bill that guarantees paid sick leave among other things passes the senate this week

 

[Gralin]

So Virgin are ground international flights for a couple of months, if you're overseas and want to come home now would be a good time, they are unlikely to be the only airline to do this

 

[flinchfree]

Shelter in place is close to going in to action across the country.
As in, can't leave your home.

We just had the rest of our school year get cancelled.
To give an idea of what it means, we had just entered Spring Break which runs 2 weeks, then kids would have returned to school for the rest of semester which ends approx May 25th.
Summer break here then goes until around 10th August.

My kids just found out they are out of school for the next 5 months, give or take a week.

 

[harliquin]

I've been living up in Singapore for 4 years now, and have a love hate relationship with the place for a variety of reasons.

However, in times of crisis you've got to absolutely admire their government, who are incredibly decisive; as well as their citizens who have a strong sense of civic duty.

Watching ScoMo, Trump, Boris and the shambles that is the Thai government (the old man is retired in Thailand, and my gf is Thai.. so have a passing interest in Thai politics) handle COVID-19, I do feel incredibly lucky to be living here in Singapore at this time.

If you want to see what a real politician looks like, check this video of Dr Balakrishnan, Singapore's Foreign Minister.

 

[Mississippi]

I've been living up in Singapore for 4 years now, and have a love hate relationship with the place for a variety of reasons.

However, in times of crisis you've got to absolutely admire their government, who are incredibly decisive; as well as their citizens who have a strong sense of civic duty.

Watching ScoMo, Trump, Boris and the shambles that is the Thai government (the old man is retired in Thailand, and my gf is Thai.. so have a passing interest in Thai politics) handle COVID-19, I do feel incredibly lucky to be living here in Singapore at this time.

If you want to see what a real politician looks like, check this video of Dr Balakrishnan, Singapore's Foreign Minister.

My God. I can't believe the overwhelming common sense and intelligent perspective that man exudes.
That footage should be compulsory viewing to every politician in the US, Aust and UK.

 

[Brishawk]

I've been living up in Singapore for 4 years now, and have a love hate relationship with the place for a variety of reasons.

However, in times of crisis you've got to absolutely admire their government, who are incredibly decisive; as well as their citizens who have a strong sense of civic duty.

Watching ScoMo, Trump, Boris and the shambles that is the Thai government (the old man is retired in Thailand, and my gf is Thai.. so have a passing interest in Thai politics) handle COVID-19, I do feel incredibly lucky to be living here in Singapore at this time.

If you want to see what a real politician looks like, check this video of Dr Balakrishnan, Singapore's Foreign Minister.

Singapore have been good but you are not out of the woods yet.

 

[Gralin]

Singapore have been good but you are not out of the woods yet.
View attachment 841684

Nobody is out of the woods and he said in that video that they were going to have new cases and new clusters and had to remain vigilant.

He said they will have this for a year.

We are now up to our Government saying this is going to be continuing for 6 months.

 

[Brishawk]

Nobody is out of the woods and he said in that video that they were going to have new cases and new clusters and had to remain vigilant.

He said they will have this for a year.

We are now up to our Government saying this is going to be continuing for 6 months.

Sorry I was more talking about the rate of increase in the graph. The exponential growth paused but looks like it is returning in Singapore.

 

[flinchfree]

Nobody is out of the woods and he said in that video that they were going to have new cases and new clusters and had to remain vigilant.

He said they will have this for a year.

We are now up to our Government saying this is going to be continuing for 6 months.

That's where the current scientific discussion is going now as they try to imagine the path forward for the virus.
Expectation is that even as major outbreaks get curtailed with social distancing/shelter in place practices, the virus will spring back in pockets and in populations that have managed to avoid it.
Could be a rolling thing of smaller bumps that cause us to play hidey hide periodically until vaccine is available.

 

[harliquin]

Sorry I was more talking about the rate of increase in the graph. The exponential growth paused but looks like it is returning in Singapore.

Definitely not out of the woods. However the graph paints a misleading picture. Most of the new cases are imported, with Singaporeans returning home from overseas. There's been limited community spread for some time, and the containment measures the government have in place pick it up very quickly.

I live about 200m walk from my condo to the office. I walk through 3 temperature checkpoints in that time. My temp is also checked at work (although we've just shutdown all of our global offices)

We have mandatory self quarantine when returning from hotspots and ASEAN nations, and ICA actually go and check that you are home.

Anytime you enter a building you need to fill in paperwork (or register your visit via an app) for the purposes of contact tracing. Anyone that's in that building/venue at the time of a confirmed case gets a stay home notice.

A number of people have had their permanent residency and work permits revoked because they did not obey the stay home notice.

Schools have yet to be closed because the community spread has been very limited.

They've distributed masks to every household and are about to distribute hand sanitizer.

We have an abundance of toilet paper after the government asked for calm

Life is relatively normal here, and whilst things can change rapidly with this virus, I have the utmost confidence the government is doing everything necessary to control the spread.

In other times I'll criticise the government for their heavy handedness, and the people for their process-driven, obedient to a fault, and sheepish nature. But in time of crisis the system really works.

 

[Argy]

Definitely not out of the woods. However the graph paints a misleading picture. Most of the new cases are imported, with Singaporeans returning home from overseas. There's been limited community spread for some time, and the containment measures the government have in place pick it up very quickly.

I live about 200m walk from my condo to the office. I walk through 3 temperature checkpoints in that time. My temp is also checked at work (although we've just shutdown all of our global offices)

We have mandatory self quarantine when returning from hotspots and ASEAN nations, and ICA actually go and check that you are home.

Anytime you enter a building you need to fill in paperwork (or register your visit via an app) for the purposes of contact tracing. Anyone that's in that building/venue at the time of a confirmed case gets a stay home notice.

A number of people have had their permanent residency and work permits revoked because they did not obey the stay home notice.

Schools have yet to be closed because the community spread has been very limited.

They've distributed masks to every household and are about to distribute hand sanitizer.

We have an abundance of toilet paper after the government asked for calm

Life is relatively normal here, and whilst things can change rapidly with this virus, I have the utmost confidence the government is doing everything necessary to control the spread.

In other times I'll criticise the government for their heavy handedness, and the people for their process-driven, obedient to a fault, and sheepish nature. But in time of crisis the system really works.

Sounds bloody sensible.

 

[Brishawk]

Definitely not out of the woods. However the graph paints a misleading picture. Most of the new cases are imported, with Singaporeans returning home from overseas. There's been limited community spread for some time, and the containment measures the government have in place pick it up very quickly.

I live about 200m walk from my condo to the office. I walk through 3 temperature checkpoints in that time. My temp is also checked at work (although we've just shutdown all of our global offices)

We have mandatory self quarantine when returning from hotspots and ASEAN nations, and ICA actually go and check that you are home.

Anytime you enter a building you need to fill in paperwork (or register your visit via an app) for the purposes of contact tracing. Anyone that's in that building/venue at the time of a confirmed case gets a stay home notice.

A number of people have had their permanent residency and work permits revoked because they did not obey the stay home notice.

Schools have yet to be closed because the community spread has been very limited.

They've distributed masks to every household and are about to distribute hand sanitizer.

We have an abundance of toilet paper after the government asked for calm

Life is relatively normal here, and whilst things can change rapidly with this virus, I have the utmost confidence the government is doing everything necessary to control the spread.

In other times I'll criticise the government for their heavy handedness, and the people for their process-driven, obedient to a fault, and sheepish nature. But in time of crisis the system really works.

Our government has unenforced self-isolation requests and refuses to restrict movements for the most part. They have baked gatherings of 100 or more people yesterday. I fear it will get a lot worse here!

 

[flinchfree]

Definitely not out of the woods. However the graph paints a misleading picture. Most of the new cases are imported, with Singaporeans returning home from overseas. There's been limited community spread for some time, and the containment measures the government have in place pick it up very quickly.

I live about 200m walk from my condo to the office. I walk through 3 temperature checkpoints in that time. My temp is also checked at work (although we've just shutdown all of our global offices)

We have mandatory self quarantine when returning from hotspots and ASEAN nations, and ICA actually go and check that you are home.

Anytime you enter a building you need to fill in paperwork (or register your visit via an app) for the purposes of contact tracing. Anyone that's in that building/venue at the time of a confirmed case gets a stay home notice.

A number of people have had their permanent residency and work permits revoked because they did not obey the stay home notice.

Schools have yet to be closed because the community spread has been very limited.

They've distributed masks to every household and are about to distribute hand sanitizer.

We have an abundance of toilet paper after the government asked for calm

Life is relatively normal here, and whilst things can change rapidly with this virus, I have the utmost confidence the government is doing everything necessary to control the spread.

In other times I'll criticise the government for their heavy handedness, and the people for their process-driven, obedient to a fault, and sheepish nature. But in time of crisis the system really works.

Brilliant.
Such clarity and ability to quickly mobilize to a plan.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Singapore have been good but you are not out of the woods yet.
View attachment 841684

Raw numbers are too simplistic for analysis. I suggest that if numbers monkeys are really interested in some useful analysis then they start playing around with infections per million residents or similar metrics. In Singapore 45 out of every 1M are infected. In Australia 18 out of every 1M. Italy is at 521 people for every 1M. Those numbers will certainly change, but I suspect there is a tipping point somewhere that is a factor of social interactions, contagiousness and infection saturation that thresholds what sort of community infection you need to stay below in order for the infection to grow at a controlled and treatable rate. In geographically large countries, like Australia, that analysis may be possible by region (at least for those who are trying to manage this) so it could be that nationwide consistency is neither required or even desirable (given the social consequences of shutting everything down).

But given the announcement yesterday of a 15-day extreme social distancing order in the USA where many States (but not all) are now closing every social institution in the place and rumours of similar on the way soon in Australia, I would guess that that magic threshold is somewhere above the infection saturation in places like Singapore or possibly as much as South Korea (164 / 1M). I bet it's well below South Korea, though, who have shut down some regions of the country to almost zero.

Regardless, infectious disease researchers are all over these models. I read an article a few years ago on how the models for infectious disease spread were being used to model the spread of terrorist ideologies. I certainly recommend that if someone really wants to be informative on this forum that they do a little research on infectious disease spread (there is plenty of literature/papers available) rather than publishing graphs on raw number which are, in fact, so uninformative it would be better to not publish them at all.

 

[Brishawk]

Raw numbers are too simplistic for analysis. I suggest that if numbers monkeys are really interested in some useful analysis then they start playing around with infections per million residents or similar metrics. In Singapore 45 out of every 1M are infected. In Australia 18 out of every 1M. Italy is at 521 people for every 1M. Those numbers will certainly change, but I suspect there is a tipping point somewhere that is a factor of social interactions, contagiousness and infection saturation that thresholds what sort of community infection you need to stay below in order for the infection to grow at a controlled and treatable rate. In geographically large countries, like Australia, that analysis may be possible by region (at least for those who are trying to manage this) so it could be that nationwide consistency is neither required or even desirable (given the social consequences of shutting everything down).

But given the announcement yesterday of a 15-day extreme social distancing order in the USA where many States (but not all) are now closing every social institution in the place and rumours of similar on the way soon in Australia, I would guess that that magic threshold is somewhere above the infection saturation in places like Singapore or possibly as much as South Korea (164 / 1M). I bet it's well below South Korea, though, who have shut down some regions of the country to almost zero.

Regardless, infectious disease researchers are all over these models. I read an article a few years ago on how the models for infectious disease spread were being used to model the spread of terrorist ideologies. I certainly recommend that if someone really wants to be informative on this forum that they do a little research on infectious disease spread (there is plenty of literature/papers available) rather than publishing graphs on raw number which are, in fact, so uninformative it would be better to not publish them at all.

The rate per population isn't predictive. Taking the log of the confirmed cases and plotting it against number of days since first case and we can see the relative progression of virus. The important thing to note here is that a straight, upward sloping line indicates exponential growth. You can see measures by South Korea, China and, to a lessor extent, Singapore have flattened the curve. Italy's measures will likely take a couple of weeks to start bending their curve towards flat. Australia and the US are growing exponentially. This is the key to understanding how things are going to progress. A basic exponential regression model using data from day 30 onwards predicts between 67 and 75 new confirmed cases tomorrow, up from 56 to 62 today (75 actual cases today). And that exponential progression will continue for 2-4 weeks after we implement stricter social distance policies based on the Chinese and South Korean examples. I don't want to freak people out of course but that is what we are looking at if things remain the same.

 

[grumbleguts]

Not to be a conspiracy nut but if you were a foreign power wanting to bring America to its knees this virus is the perfect weapon.

You are attacking the weakest point of their society (woeful health care / inadequate social security). No nation can match the yanks in a military/technological conflict but this virus has the potential to really weaken their country.

I don't believe that this virus was manufactured at all (all indications are it was transmitted from bat guano to a pangolin) but its an interesting observation.

I think the first word is out of place here.

 

[Milkshaker]

My dads currently having Chemo. I told them (Mum and Dad) I would not be popping in for 6 weeks or so around a week ago. Its tough as I had been a regular support.

These fit young blokes can train and play together avoiding unnecessary contact with fans and the general populace, including, not visiting aged family without the added stress I have.

The risk is very low to pretty much everyone involved playing, as long as adequate safeguards are in effect. Play the games.

As a family we are self isolating pretty much. The kids guitar, basketball and soccer is postponed. We have have bought paint for the house and seeds to have a crack at winter a decent winter vegie crop. Still working but with strict personal contact parameters and other safety measures in effect etc.

Is common sense enough to prevail?

 

[phlogiston]

My dads currently having Chemo. I told them (Mum and Dad) I would not be popping in for 6 weeks or so around a week ago. Its tough as I had been a regular support.

These fit young blokes can train and play together avoiding unnecessary contact with fans and the general populace, including, not visiting aged family without the added stress I have.

The risk is very low to pretty much everyone involved with playing as long as adequate safeguards are in effect. Play the games.

As a family we are self isolating pretty much. The kids guitar, basketball and soccer is postponed. We have have bought paint for the house and seeds to have a crack at winter a decent winter vegie crop. Still working but with strict personal contact parameters etc.

Is common sense enough to prevail?

Good luck for your dad's chemo. Hope the remaining treatment schedule doesn't knock him about too much.

 

[Restricted Free Agent]

It's on! (probably this is Mitch Cleary we're talking about here)

 

[Milkshaker]

It's on! (probably this is Mitch Cleary we're talking about here)

Yay go West Coast (knock out tipping reference).

 

[Simon Crawshay]

All right this is going to sound controversial but here I go.

Over 500,000 people (mostly kids under 5 in poorer countries) die of Malaria every year.

The death toll of Covid-19 to date is approximately 8000. The vast majority of which are people over 75 who have lived full lives (in my opinion any years you get over 75 are bonus years in the game of life).

Which is the greater tradegy? Your elderly parent passing away in their 80s/90s from covid-19 or a 4 year old kid dying in West Africa from Malaria?

I am not saying we shouldn't follow all the recommendations but it's important to maintain some perspective about this virus and think about how we value life on this planet.

 

[Zack]

I'd like to say I was a little bit emotional about Frank last night (perhaps a bit more). So I removed myself after the vent from the site til tonight.

If I haven't liked your support well I do, I'm just not great on social media finding everyone to thank. So thankyou anyway it is much appreciated.

I'm glad we are going ahead this week. But am aware there may be a hiatus going forward.

Anyway thank-you to all.