COVID-19 / Coronavirus

[Gralin]

All right this is going to sound controversial but here I go.

Over 500,000 people (mostly kids under 5 in poorer countries) die of Malaria every year.

The death toll of Covid-19 to date is approximately 8000. The vast majority of which are people over 75 who have lived full lives (in my opinion any years you get over 75 are bonus years in the game of life).

Which is the greater tradegy? Your elderly parent passing away in their 80s/90s from covid-19 or a 4 year old kid dying in West Africa from Malaria?

I am not saying we shouldn't follow all the recommendations but it's important to maintain some perspective about this virus and think about how we value life on this planet.

I'm not a fan of this kind or logic. To the people losing family members to covid it is tragic.
To the people in hospital wondering if they are going to die it's scary as ****

We don't know how many are going to die yet, it's too early to make those kind of comparisons as well.

The flu kills between 250-700k every year on average globally and this thing seems to be 10 times more deadly on average.

We don't know the full damage it can do yet, we know it's mostly killing older people currently but that doesn't mean it will stay that way.

Malaria is terrible and tragic and that isn't lessened at all by any other disease, it's not a competition.

 

[Mississippi]

All right this is going to sound controversial but here I go.

Over 500,000 people (mostly kids under 5 in poorer countries) die of Malaria every year.

The death toll of Covid-19 to date is approximately 8000. The vast majority of which are people over 75 who have lived full lives (in my opinion any years you get over 75 are bonus years in the game of life).

Which is the greater tradegy? Your elderly parent passing away in their 80s/90s from covid-19 or a 4 year old kid dying in West Africa from Malaria?

I am not saying we shouldn't follow all the recommendations but it's important to maintain some perspective about this virus and think about how we value life on this planet.

Simon, with respect, that is absurd logic and I don’t understand why you’d even want to go there.

The extension of your argument is this - 80% of malaria deaths are in Africa and the victims are young children. They’re poverty stricken and they die simply because the vaccine isn’t available to them. Of course it should be And that is an issue for the African governments. That is a tragedy.

So by way of some misguided logic you‘re weighing up the value of lives lost - the young African kid who never had a chance from the moment he was born to the typical privileged white 75 year old (with respiratory problems) who has lived a full life with, say, 2 or 3 children and, say 6 grand children.
What sort of argument is that?

The irony is that the 75 year old, soon to be deceased, may be typically a member of Rotary. Rotary worldwide has achieved, worldwide, more than any government or or other international organisation in eliminating malaria!

 

[TAITA]

Life - enjoy it!

Because no one, and I mean no one, gets out alive.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

I'm not a fan of this kind or logic. To the people losing family members to covid it is tragic.
To the people in hospital wondering if they are going to die it's scary as fu**

We don't know how many are going to die yet, it's too early to make those kind of comparisons as well.

The flu kills between 250-700k every year on average globally and this thing seems to be 10 times more deadly on average.

We don't know the full damage it can do yet, we know it's mostly killing older people currently but that doesn't mean it will stay that way.

Malaria is terrible and tragic and that isn't lessened at all by any other disease, it's not a competition.

If it is not a competition then why don't we ever see the deaths caused by malaria or tuberculosis reported on the news?

The only reason this

Simon, with respect, that is absurd logic and I don’t understand why you’d even want to go there.

The extension of your argument is this - 80% of malaria deaths are in Africa and the victims are young children. They’re poverty stricken and they die simply because the vaccine isn’t available to them. Of course it should be And that is an issue for the African governments. That is a tragedy.

So by way of some misguided logic you‘re weighing up the value of lives lost - the young African kid who never had a chance from the moment he was born to the typical privileged white 75 year old (with respiratory problems) who has lived a full life with, say, 2 or 3 children and, say 6 grand children.
What sort of argument is that?

The irony is that the 75 year old, soon to be deceased, may be typically a member of Rotary. Rotary worldwide has achieved, worldwide, more than any government or or other international organisation in eliminating malaria!

I go there because there are plenty of people who probably think right now that Covid-19 is the biggest killer on the planet right now when in reality it barely registers(see graph below)

The difference is WHO this disease is killing (as you say white priveleged, 75 year olds) as opposed to Malaria and tuberculosis which kill people in 3rd world countries.

I am not saying we in 1st world countries bare responsibility for this (as you say it is mainly due to corrupt governments in Africa) but it always pays to have some perspective and not react emotionally.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Because people here only respect expert opinion and are eager to find reasoned, expert arguments that disagree with their own uninformed hysteria in an effort to become better informed. This guy is obviously a lunatic.

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.

www.statnews.com

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed...

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.

 

[Gralin]

If it is not a competition then why don't we ever see the deaths caused by malaria or tuberculosis reported on the news?

The only reason this
I go there because there are plenty of people who probably think right now that Covid-19 is the biggest killer on the planet right now when in reality it barely registers(see graph below)

The difference is WHO this disease is killing (as you say white priveleged, 75 year olds) as opposed to Malaria and tuberculosis which kill people in 3rd world countries.

I am not saying we in 1st world countries bare responsibility for this (as you say it is mainly due to corrupt governments in Africa) but it always pays to have some perspective and not react emotionally.

What gets reported on is generally what interests or impacts the local community.
World News tends to be the world that interests the target audience. When I was in Boston, news about the rest of America came under the banner if World News.
Most people have a very local view and are O KY interested in the wider community re how it relates to them.

We don't get much in the way of news on what happens in Africa because what happens in MAFS sells more papers.

Because people here only respect expert opinion and are eager to find reasoned, expert arguments that disagree with their own uninformed hysteria in an effort to become better informed. This guy is obviously a lunatic.

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.

www.statnews.com

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

If you're trying to convince people of your view maybe be less insulting and antagonistic.

The reality is we don't have good numbers, it's too early. Testing is limited as is our understanding. People are making all sorts of guesses educated or otherwise using data that supports their opinions.

We've got no evidence this is less damaging than the flu. The flu is bad enough but we have some herd immunity and vaccines for the flu.

Don't panic is a good idea but dismissing the risk out of hand isn't. Stopping the spread is still important and as we don't have a vaccine or herd immunity, other measures are required.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Just in case you have the urge to read even more that you don't agree with... if you have the courage.

Coronavirus Perspective

The evidence does not support our panicked inferences.

www.hoover.org

It is instructive to see how this analysis fares by taking into account the Korean data, which is more complete than the American data. South Korea has been dealing with the coronavirus since January 20. Since that time, the Korean government has administered a total of 261,335 tests to its citizens. In press releases updated every day, the Korean CDC is reporting (as of March 15) 8,162 total infections against 75 deaths for an overall mortality rate of 0.92 percent. But as shown in the table below, the age-disparity in outcome is striking:


Clearly, the impact on elderly and immunocompromised individuals is severe, with nearly 90% of total deaths coming from individuals 60 and over. But these data do not call for shutting down all public and private facilities given the extraordinarily low rates of death in the population under 50.

 

[Carl Spackler]

If you're trying to convince people of your view maybe be less insulting and antagonistic.

You reckon? The degree of insult and antagonism directed my way when I presented a contrary opinion in good faith convinced me that the crew here is in no mood for reasoned debate. I'm simply here to present alternative viewpoints in the hopes that some will find them interesting and informative.

As for treating the panic brigade with the respect they refuse to show I have little interest.

 

[Gralin]

You reckon? The degree of insult and antagonism directed my way when I presented a contrary opinion in good faith convinced me that the crew here is in no mood for reasoned debate. I'm simply here to present alternative viewpoints in the hopes that some will find them interesting and informative.

As for treating the panic brigade with the respect they refuse to show I have little interest.

Yeah sorry, you've got to stop insulting people that are worried about what is going on.
You are actively daring people not to read the information you are posting.

I've also gotta say an article that argues that there is no point to shutting down facilities because of the low death rate in people under 50 doesn't fill be with confidence that this is a view we should be supporting.

For a few reasons.
There are plenty of people under 50 that this could kill based on what we know about being immunocompromised.

A society that decides that they would rather risk anyone over 50 dying than shut some businesses isn't one I want to be part of.

Sacrificing for the greater good is the kind of thing we should be doing, it's how we got society going in the first place.

Trying to minimise the death and impact of this virus isn't a bad thing, people that develop severe stmoyand survive aren't likely to make a full recovery. The cost of that has to be born as well.

It does need to be taken seriously, I agree panic and hoarding and a lot of the bad behaviour we are seeing is not what we want, but you seem to almost think this isn't worth any of our time at all.

 

[Gralin]

Can we please stop name calling in this thread.

The point is to discuss the virus, it's impact on our lives and what we or the government should be doing.

Discussion on the severity is good. Dismissing statistics because you don't like them is bad

Countering bad statistics is good.

Remembering that not everyone deals with stress the same is also good.

I don't want to see conspiracy theories, paranoia, hysteria or outright dismissal in this thread.

Let's try and keep the conversation fairly factual, civil and reasonable if we can.

The severity of the illness is in question in that we don't have the data to know real solid contagion rates, % of severe cases, % of death, chances of reinfection etc.

This is new and the information is evolving on a regular basis. That means everyone needs to keep an open mind about what this disease could end up being.

I prefer that our leaders err on the side of caution assuming and preparing for the worst rather than the opposite.

It's good from a personal perspective to understand that panic and apocalypse scenarios are of no benet, but acting like this is just another cold is also of jo benefit.

Let's try and find the middle ground please people. Let's discuss this in a way where we can listen to others views and where we disagree do it politely and please do it eloquently.

Explain your disagreement, give the other person topics to discuss. We won't change anyone's mind either way with insults.

 

[Brishawk]

Just in case you have the urge to read even more that you don't agree with... if you have the courage.

Coronavirus Perspective

The evidence does not support our panicked inferences.

www.hoover.org

The very low end of predictions by the national and state health departments, and notable academics, in Australia is 20% of the population and 1% mortality. That is 50,000 people dead. Your ‘expert’ claims the data only shows 50,000 deaths world wide and only 500 in the USA. I’m not sure why you are putting forward a legal expert forward as expert testimony.

The entire point of social distancing and other measures is to slow the progression so you can learn more about the disease and find ways to prevent deaths. If we don’t buy time the hospitals get overwhelmed and the mortality rate skyrockets because not everyone can get treatment. This is what is happening in Italy.

 

[Gralin]

The very low end of predictions by the national and state health departments, and notable academics, in Australia is 20% of the population and 1% mortality. That is 50,000 people dead. Your ‘expert’ claims the data only shows 50,000 deaths world wide and only 500 in the USA. I’m not sure why you are putting forward a legal expert forward as expert testimony.

The entire point of social distancing and other measures is to slow the progression so you can learn more about the disease and find ways to prevent deaths. If we don’t buy time the hospitals get overwhelmed and the mortality rate skyrockets because not everyone can get treatment. This is what is happening in Italy.

Best case and worst case are very different based on whether your hospitals can cope with the load.

UK has less than 6k ventilators for 66 million that's 0.01% of the population that they can cover for severe symptoms.

If it goes above that death rate goes up.

That's the bit where global statistics aren't great.

What I want to know is how many severe patients Victoria can deal with.

And even then, people still die from diseases we can generally control because we can't fix everyone.

 

[Dave Id]

What I want to know is how many severe patients Victoria can deal with.

And even then, people still die from diseases we can generally control because we can't fix everyone.

Victorian hospitals are not coping now.

They are political footballs with rigged waiting lists and outcomes.

No way they will be able to cope with a bigger load.

 

[Jaeger]

I'm growing increasingly worried about how this prick of a virus is going to hurt the club in the immediate and long-term future.

Fortunately for us we are starting at a reasonably strong point compared to most of the others. Last year we still made a profit despite losing a fair bit due to the poor fixture (and poor on-field performances).
Some of the other clubs who are more dependant on the AFL are absolutely ****ed. We will survive this, which might not be the case for a few others.

No attendances is going to hurt us, membership will take a hit, as will merchandise, corporate packages, you name it.

We're going to have to slash salaries and terminate employment right across the board, but can only trust the club to sort all that out and hopefully we have the right people in place making those hard decisions.

The club has announced that all Dingley plans are on hold. This will push Dingley back years and we may even get to a point where it's no longer viable. That would be a whole other mess within itself given we've purchased the land, the funding/donations, etc.

Then we've got our other ventures, sponsors, pokies... it could all go to shit.

Securing another Tasmania deal will arguably be the greatest challenge for the Pres & CEO if that's even an option going forward. Football is important to state governments but it wont be a high priority for perhaps the next decade.

From a football point of view, we've announced that no listed players will be playing for Box Hill this year. I assume it's to ensure we have a greater squad to choose from for games without needing to add more players to the list therefore paying more salaries, whilst also reducing the playing groups risk of contracting the virus from mingling with BHH players (who may be more exposed to it working their day jobs?).

I don't think we can rely at all on the AFL for money (what's new?).
They are going to to need their funds to keep other clubs alive, which is what they have to do. We will be an afterthought if anything.

I don't think the government will help us, it might help the AFL but again it wont be their priority.

The elephant in the room - and it feels uncomfortable to forecast - but there's a likelihood that Hawthorn people are going to contract COVID-19. Hopefully very few but it may well strike at some point.

I am positive that we will be okay (I truly have NFI). The outlook appears more grim for other clubs, if that's any consolation.
Who knows, there's too much uncertainty around this entire pandemic and where it's heading and what it's going to look like in the aftermath.

I'm glad we are getting at least the start of the season, because I think we all need Hawthorn at the moment. The time will come when Hawthorn will need us, but when the gates re-open, we'll be there. Probably not this year, which in itself hasn't fully sunk in yet.

 

[Pessimistic]

All the same I’m pretty happy we have a govt like Dans in charge locally.

if we had a Gil in that job...eek

 

[Pessimistic]

I’m thinking hawthorn hasn’t sacrificed box hill, but the players won’t be mixing directly

I’d imagine we will still pay the contracted box hill players

 

[Gralin]

Victorian hospitals are not coping now.

They are political footballs with rigged waiting lists and outcomes.

No way they will be able to cope with a bigger load.

That's the problem. That's why we need to slow down the spread.

We can't stop it, we need to give our hospitals a fight chance to keep the fatality rate down.

 

[grumbleguts]

So this idiot on facebook just posted "We should be surrounding ourselves with positive people." What an idiot.

 

[grumbleguts]

I hate this having to cough into my elbow all the time. I don't even have a cough.

 

[grumbleguts]

I wanted to panic buy, but checked my account, turns out I can only panic.

 

[Gralin]

If this is the kind of material you run with in class I hope they close the school for your students sake

 

[Gralin]

Given this I wonder if we will be playing games in Tassie any time soon

Tasmania declares domestic travellers must quarantine

Premier Peter Gutwein has just announced a state of emergency and “the toughest border measures in the country”.

“From midnight on Friday, only essential travellers will be allowed into Tasmania without going into quarantine.

Any non-essential traveller into Tasmania will be required to go into a period of 14 days of quarantine.

“Essential travellers will be those that are important to our health effort, or to an emergency situation, or those that keep our trade links running.”

 

[flinchfree]

This'll be my last post on this forum for a while.
I've tried to understand some of the thinking by those who want to keep acting like 'distraction' of footy is appropriate in a time of world crisis.
Tried to swallow the postings that wish to minimize at all costs the tragedy.
And realized now I can't.
That's alright, not pretending like I add anything super important and definitely not hoping to be missed, I'm a very average Hawker for whom footy has just been a love affair.
People in this country - USA - are going to start dying very shortly in numbers that are going to horrify the public.
It's likely going to happen in Oz too.
Hope watching a bunch of blokes in tight shorts bumbling around for a ball is somehow gratifying...the rest of world has stopped such outside trivialities because it doesn't represent what we are all being asked to do.
Which is sacrifice.
Which is isolate so we don't infect eachother.
Which is to have perspective.
See ya.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

I'm growing increasingly worried about how this prick of a virus is going to hurt the club in the immediate and long-term future.

Fortunately for us we are starting at a reasonably strong point compared to most of the others. Last year we still made a profit despite losing a fair bit due to the poor fixture (and poor on-field performances).
Some of the other clubs who are more dependant on the AFL are absolutely f’ed. We will survive this, which might not be the case for a few others.

No attendances is going to hurt us, membership will take a hit, as will merchandise, corporate packages, you name it.

We're going to have to slash salaries and terminate employment right across the board, but can only trust the club to sort all that out and hopefully we have the right people in place making those hard decisions.

The club has announced that all Dingley plans are on hold. This will push Dingley back years and we may even get to a point where it's no longer viable. That would be a whole other mess within itself given we've purchased the land, the funding/donations, etc.

Then we've got our other ventures, sponsors, pokies... it could all go to shit.

Securing another Tasmania deal will arguably be the greatest challenge for the Pres & CEO if that's even an option going forward. Football is important to state governments but it wont be a high priority for perhaps the next decade.

From a football point of view, we've announced that no listed players will be playing for Box Hill this year. I assume it's to ensure we have a greater squad to choose from for games without needing to add more players to the list therefore paying more salaries, whilst also reducing the playing groups risk of contracting the virus from mingling with BHH players (who may be more exposed to it working their day jobs?).

I don't think we can rely at all on the AFL for money (what's new?).
They are going to to need their funds to keep other clubs alive, which is what they have to do. We will be an afterthought if anything.

I don't think the government will help us, it might help the AFL but again it wont be their priority.

The elephant in the room - and it feels uncomfortable to forecast - but there's a likelihood that Hawthorn people are going to contract COVID-19. Hopefully very few but it may well strike at some point.

I am positive that we will be okay (I truly have NFI). The outlook appears more grim for other clubs, if that's any consolation.
Who knows, there's too much uncertainty around this entire pandemic and where it's heading and what it's going to look like in the aftermath.

I'm glad we are getting at least the start of the season, because I think we all need Hawthorn at the moment. The time will come when Hawthorn will need us, but when the gates re-open, we'll be there. Probably not this year, which in itself hasn't fully sunk in yet.

I respect this viewpoint, but personally the health and wellbeing of the football club is the least of my concerns right now. Fortunately at the moment I do not know anyone infected but having heard things from people on the ground dealing with this, I am concerned about the massive disruption this will have on our way of life for the foreseeable future.

The government at all levels seem to be taking only the minimum steps to control the spread of this virus, whereas a much stronger response is (in my view) needed to prevent the spread of the virus.

There is also an assumption that an effective vaccine to coronavirus will be found. Well, HIV has been present for 30 years and there is no vaccine for that, merely drugs that control its impact on an infected individual.

All it would take is one player testing positive for coronavirus and I think the season would be suspended indefinitely, like the NBA and various soccer leagues in Europe.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Still far more concerned about mental health than physical health in relation to this virus.

Footy gives hope to the mental health problem so I couldn't be happier that it's going ahead.

When people lose their houses, their passions, their jobs and their hope we will see far more victims to suicide than Covid 19.

I'd be in full support of a 'normalcy retention' focus group that could work on discovering the best methods of helping society THROUGH all of this as opposed to just cancelling everything. What do I mean? No blanket ban on non-essential businesses. No forced isolation on healthy people. There are ways around it, I firmly believe that.

Regardless, we have some footy on this weekend and that's a positive. Country footy being stopped has hit me and others hard. Hopefully it's a very tempoary measure.