Certified Legendary Thread Covid, Life, UFOs, Food, & Wordle :(

[sr36]

I thought the delta strain arrived on top of the alpha in late June.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...domestic-case-delta-covid-variant-2021-06-26/

By then they were in lockdown from the previous outbreak and Delta cases didn't get out of hand, so it was more akin to Melbourne's recent stellar effort, rather than bringing back a Delta outbreak through a lockdown when contact tracers aren't keeping up. Hopefully I'm wrong, but Sydney will be the first city to do it.

 

[Chameleon75]

By then they were in lockdown from the previous outbreak and Delta cases didn't get out of hand, so it was more akin to Melbourne's recent stellar effort, rather than bringing back a Delta outbreak through a lockdown when contact tracers aren't keeping up. Hopefully I'm wrong, but Sydney will be the first city to do it.

yea caught a break by already having some restrictions in place

 

[Chameleon75]

Yep, the ‘eligible’ bit implies - not kids?

But the next phase at 80% - entire population?

no idea I only caught a bit of his presser it confused me.

 

[sr36]

britain have reached 70% fully vaccinated and they have had an upsurge of cases.

They're well below that fully vaccinated. But the living with it model isn't about cases - there will be a shit load of cases, it's about the vaccination bringing about an acceptable amount of hospitalisation and death. Singapore are going to treat it like the flu and stop publishing case numbers once they pull the trigger.

 

[Vicky Park]

no idea I only caught a bit of his presser it confused me.

Dont tell me you were confused by a ScoMo presser? Well I never!

 

[sr36]

Yep, the ‘eligible’ bit implies - not kids?

But the next phase at 80% - entire population?

There was an article in response that suggested that 80% was possible if 11 year olds+ were able to be vaccinated (has that been approved in Australia yet?) So that article was assuming he meant 80% of population. Although I reckon he'd happily open if 80% of the Hillsong church were covered.

 

[Chameleon75]

By then they were in lockdown from the previous outbreak and Delta cases didn't get out of hand, so it was more akin to Melbourne's recent stellar effort, rather than bringing back a Delta outbreak through a lockdown when contact tracers aren't keeping up. Hopefully I'm wrong, but Sydney will be the first city to do it.

the thing about restrictions though, it doesn’t matter what they are if the public don’t comply. In Taiwan being considerate to others is a point of pride.

For a while there in Vic we had people not complying but then the 700 cases came in and it was an “oh shit” moment. The reports into out second wave is that we had 90%+ compliance, the Philippines threaten to shoot people and can’t get that level of compliance.

That’s why the public messaging from government has to be spot on. There’s a lot too hate about Dan’s pressers, but there’s no confusion on what’s expected and people responded.

 

[jathanas]

There was an article in response that suggested that 80% was possible if 11 year olds+ were able to be vaccinated (has that been approved in Australia yet?) So that article was assuming he meant 80% of population. Although I reckon he'd happily open if 80% of the Hillsong church were covered.

The vaccination rate required such that lockdowns aren't necessary is 80%. Herd immunity is at 85%.

The modelling is currently being presented to the government.

This is the percentage of the population which must be vaccinated before we can say goodbye to lockdowns forever

Grattan Institute modelling suggests incentives like a national lottery could help Australia improve its vaccination rate.

www.abc.net.au

EDIT:

And today this:

PM says 80 per cent of Australians must be vaccinated before lockdowns end

The Prime Minister says 70 per cent of eligible Australians will need to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 for the country to begin reopening and returning to normal, and 80 per cent to end lockdowns.

www.abc.net.au

So the 70% number means that lockdowns could still be possible but the decision would be based on hospitalisations, not new cases.

 

[sr36]

the thing about restrictions though, it doesn’t matter what they are if the public don’t comply. In Taiwan being considerate to others is a point of pride.

For a while there in Vic we had people not complying but then the 700 cases came in and it was an “oh sh*t” moment. The reports into out second wave is that we had 90%+ compliance, the Philippines threaten to shoot people and can’t get that level of compliance.

That’s why the public messaging from government has to be spot on. There’s a lot too hate about Dan’s pressers, but there’s no confusion on what’s expected and people responded.

Yeah Taiwan smash it in the compliance stakes. This was actually their first lockdown. They went the same approach as Sweden in 2020, yet avoided the first wave by following social responsibility to a tee - despite almost certainly having a heap more early exposure to the virus than anywhere in the West would have had.

I both like and dislike Dan. He's like most of us blokes pretending to be hard and tough with talk of harsh restrictions and rings of steel - but he's a softy. I personally don't think the choice of security guards was the issue. It was that he wanted to soften the quarantine hotel experience by letting people out of their rooms once a day to catch lifts down to the ground floor, where they could hang out with security guards, share a smoke maybe even haver a shag, before returning them to quarantine. Then he was too soft when it came to locking down. He was bloody clear, precise and direct with his messaging, which was great, but he also made lockdown really bloody gruelling by acting as though Victoria was going through the toughest set of restrictions in the world, because he wanted to appear tough.

 

[sr36]

The vaccination rate required such that lockdowns aren't necessary is 80%. Herd immunity is at 85%.

The modelling is currently being presented to the government.

This is the percentage of the population which must be vaccinated before we can say goodbye to lockdowns forever

Grattan Institute modelling suggests incentives like a national lottery could help Australia improve its vaccination rate.

www.abc.net.au

Sorry, I meant getting 80% vaccinated was possible, not related to whether or not it would be effective. The one advantage that being behind in the vaccine has is that by the time Australia has enough vaccinated to consider it, there will be enough real world data to not rely fully on the mathematical models. I think Singapore will open with a lower figure than 80% and will open cautiously and how that goes will help drive Australia's decision.

 

[jathanas]

Sorry, I meant getting 80% vaccinated was possible, not related to whether or not it would be effective. The one advantage that being behind in the vaccine has is that by the time Australia has enough vaccinated to consider it, there will be enough real world data to not rely fully on the mathematical models. I think Singapore will open with a lower figure than 80% and will open cautiously and how that goes will help drive Australia's decision.

Yep. The 70% vax rate signifies stage 2 i.e. lockdowns determined by the number of hospitalisations, not new cases, increased international travel, and more freedom for people that are fully vaxxed.

80% is let her rip.

 

[sr36]

Yep. The 70% vax rate signifies stage 2 i.e. lockdowns determined by the number of hospitalisations, not new cases, increased international travel, and more freedom for people that are fully vaxxed.

80% is let her rip.

Bring it on.

I do struggle to understand why they'd be announcing such figures 6 months out. These figures will be calculated for the Delta strain. 6 months ago there was no delta. In 6 months time vaccines will probably have been tweaked for Delta. But after a couple more months of lockdown, it'll be nice for Sydney to have a finish line in sight, in a way that you guys never did, even if it's likely to shift.

 

[jathanas]

Bring it on.

*** But after a couple more months of lockdown, it'll be nice for Sydney to have a finish line in sight, in a way that you guys never did, even if it's likely to shift.

Man that would have been such a boost, instead we had Daily Dan and his miserable North Face jacket. It was depressing!

The NSW comms haven't been inspiring either.

I would cut Dan & Gladys more slack than ScoMo. "It's not a race"... It's a fn pandemic dighead, of course it's a race.

 

[Chameleon75]

Yeah Taiwan smash it in the compliance stakes. This was actually their first lockdown. They went the same approach as Sweden in 2020, yet avoided the first wave by following social responsibility to a tee - despite almost certainly having a heap more early exposure to the virus than anywhere in the West would have had.

I both like and dislike Dan. He's like most of us blokes pretending to be hard and tough with talk of harsh restrictions and rings of steel - but he's a softy. I personally don't think the choice of security guards was the issue. It was that he wanted to soften the quarantine hotel experience by letting people out of their rooms once a day to catch lifts down to the ground floor, where they could hang out with security guards, share a smoke maybe even haver a shag, before returning them to quarantine. Then he was too soft when it came to locking down. He was bloody clear, precise and direct with his messaging, which was great, but he also made lockdown really bloody gruelling by acting as though Victoria was going through the toughest set of restrictions in the world, because he wanted to appear tough.

I recall early on with hotel quarantine someone self harmed, I think that was a driver in its subsequent laxness.

 

[sr36]

I recall early on with hotel quarantine someone self harmed, I think that was a driver in its subsequent laxness.

Letting them out of quarantine for an hour a day, was a bit like a Collingwood player out between 2 and 3 am. Surely nothing could go wrong in an hour...

 

[Chameleon75]

Letting them out of quarantine for an hour a day, was a bit like a Collingwood player out between 2 and 3 am. Surely nothing could go wrong in an hour...

I was watching an interview with an NBC reporter in Tokyo covering the games, she was in hotel quarantine and they can leave their rooms and freely roam the hotel, and an hour a day they can leave the hotel to go for a walk.

 

[sr36]

I was watching an interview with an NBC reporter in Tokyo covering the games, she was in hotel quarantine and they can leave their rooms and freely roam the hotel, and an hour a day they can leave the hotel to go for a walk.

****ing hell! I would have loved that in my quarantine hotels. Maybe a vaccinated concession?

I just looked it up. They've only got 28% vaccinated themselves. No wonder the locals wanted it cancelled. They're bloody likely to get smashed.

Edit: I just looked at their case numbers. They were in the midst of a spike before the Olympics began.

 

[jmac70]

Judging by the ScoMo press conference, he and Gladys now know that it's too late to fix the mistake and they're getting prepared to live with covid.

As Dan said, NSW will stay locked out of Victoria until they get it under control. I feel sorry for all the people in Sydney who are separated from their family in Melbourne.

 

[MyManLynch]

Yep. The 70% vax rate signifies stage 2 i.e. lockdowns determined by the number of hospitalisations, not new cases, increased international travel, and more freedom for people that are fully vaxxed.

80% is let her rip.

So that’s 80% of the 80% eligible population.
Which is 64.5% of the total population.
If it was 80% of the total population, that would 100% of the eligible population.
Vaccinations administered to date:
1 dose 8.2 million (50% of target)
2 dose 3.8 million (23% of target)

Total population 26.5 million
Eligible population (16+) 20.5 million
Target population (80%) 16.4 million

 

[jathanas]

Not sure this is appropriate for the other Olympic thread, plus I feel more comfy asking the posters in here for help.

Can someone please explain this Olympic sport to me?

 

[MyManLynch]

Not sure this is appropriate for the other Olympic thread, plus I feel more comfy asking the posters in here for help.

Can someone please explain this Olympic sport to me?

View attachment 1191840

The competitor in the pink is the receiver.
The Blue is about to serve.

 

[jathanas]

The competitor in the pink is the receiver.
The Blue is about to serve.

Lynchy you've been very helpful this morning, thanks mate!

 

[Sticky Daics Pudding]

I see that photo and all I hear is Bronski Beat, and the phrase "Turkish Grip".
Jimmy was better than John.

 

[jathanas]

So that’s 80% of the 80% eligible population.
Which is 64.5% of the total population.
If it was 80% of the total population, that would 100% of the eligible population.
Vaccinations administered to date:
1 dose 8.2 million (50% of target)
2 dose 3.8 million (23% of target)

Total population 26.5 million
Eligible population (16+) 20.5 million
Target population (80%) 16.4 million

The Grattan institute's modelling was based on total population. Not confident we'd get that.

 

[MyManLynch]

The Grattan institute's modelling was based on total population. Not confident we'd get that.

If that’s the case we would have to vaccinate 20.5 million population which is 100% of our eligible population (16+ years)
Or commence vaccinating children 15 & below.