Cox Plate 2011 Tips & Discussion

[Lockyer24]

Despite the absence of So You Think and no apparent superstars, we have a terrific edition in store this year with an even batch of G1 gallopers from most states and countries in Australiasia making it a terrific punting race.

Looking forward to getting back to the track after missing last year.

Race 1
2 Free of Doubt
8 Swipeline
14 Lamingtons

Some people get scared off these races for good reason, but I see it as an opportunity to find value and hopefully get off to a good start. The interesting thing about this years race is how many small stables have runners. Hopefully a few of them have spome handy types who will measure up. Im a big wrap for the Not A Single Doubt progeny so will throw something on the first starter from one of these small stables. Free of Doubt has reasonable trial form with a 3rd behind Planet Voyage who placed in a hot 2YO race on Thousand Guineas day. McEvoy has hinted he has a few handy 2YO's so have thrown in Swipeline, and Lamingtons run on debut was solid enough to throw in here.

Race 2
7 Torah
5 Twilighting
2 Euryale

Doing a little bit of video form, the maiden Torah is the one that really jumped at me and got me in her camp on this card. Last start over 1500 she had the outside gate, travelled 4 wide at the back most of the way, got checked severely and nearly fell, yet came all the way around the outside (albeit against a weakish field) and just missed on the line. It was a huge run. With a professional ride from Nolen, she is the only one I have jumped on for tomorrow early. Twilighting did it all the way last time and Classic Elle the other fave didn't look like grabbing her. Euryale is the class runner I'd most bank on finding some form again.


Race 3
8 Karuta Queen
1 Amah Rock
6 Beckon

I agonised over this race the most on the program, and just couldn't forgive myself if I jumped off the Queen in her current form. I think she is best at 1100 where she can freeroll, but she can win at 1200 provided she gets enough of a breather midrace. She just seems perfect for this track where she can ping again off the corner and hold on down the short straight. Holding off Stirling Grove last start just seems much better form to me than any of the others formlines. Amah Rock has been looked after by trainer and owners and I expect a great run here as reward. Beckon is the big question mark, a 3 length win won't surprise nor will a moderate gallop.

Race 4
1 Manawanui
3 Scelto
2 Collar

I'm a huge wrap for Manawanui, its dissapointing though to see the bookies not take on the punter a little more with him having his first try past a mile. Hopefully the tote comes up with some backable odds. He is going to be ridden quietly which says to me Leemon knows what he's doing with this horse. Scelto is the surprise horse for your exacta, he has been plugging away in these Derby lead up races, he punctured badly last time but he will be rock hard fit for this and his run from 2 starts ago will put him up there. Collar will run better than last time.

Race 5
5 Black Caviar
3 Doubtful Jack
1 Scenic Blast

Little to be said here, the most interesting thing will be how far SB finishes from the winner.

Race 6
4 Tullamore
10 Anudjawun
1 Americain

This will be a tight finish, and I'll be on the Nash factor and a race ready Tullamore who ran fantastic in the Caulfield Cup. I'm throwing in a roughie for 2nd, Anudjuwun has been one Ive had in the back pocket for a while and he has always been capable of pulling out a massive run in a race like this if everything goes right. I would love to see him be a bit more positive and be in the first 5. Americain will of course place and not lose by any less than a length if he does lose at all.

Race 7
4 Triple Elegance
9 Testa My Patience
3 Dao Dao

Another tough race with a few chances. Triple Elegance has always been highly rated by myself but perhaps has just found the top races a bit too much, last start he finished on the tail of Foreteller who ran brilliantly down here last week so perhaps his fortunes can change also. Testa My Patience is well weighted will go close. Dao Dao with a more positive ride will be up there.

Race 8
5 Jimmy Choux
4 Glass Harmonium
12 Secret Admirer

If we see the NZ star at his best I fully expect him to win. He was breathtaking last start, just the way he puts himself into the race at the right time and then powers to the line without really needing any whip. He will sit 6th-8th on the outside I imagine and let the leaders go at it, track into the race and find a passage with 100 to go to win running away. Glass Harmonium is tough and will stay and stay and hold on. Secret Admirer will be the eye catcher flashing home, albeit too late.

Race 9
3 More Strawberries
5 Raspberries
4 Little Surfer Girl

Think we can finish off with another Nash factor win here. I thought she had turned the corner after her first up win, but she weakened badly in the Epsom after doing a stack of work out wide and looking great for the majority of the race til the final 200. With a more econonical ride should be able to hold them off from the 3 gate.
Raspberries is another you have to forgive from the Epsom run but she has come on in leaps and bounds this Spring. Little Surfer Girl will round out the trifecta for Sydney but is obviously a big winning chance in this.

Good luck everyone, look forward to hearing your tips and reasoning before I head off tomorrow in case we need a change of gameplan early.

 

[sethlad]

There looks 2 weight specials for me.
If Americain is 80% right he has to win with the others getting only 1kg off him

Karuta Queen has an open Gp placing & a M Millions crown & carries less weight than a filly who won a 3yo fillies Gp3.

seth

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I don't mind Danleigh in the 7th at a price tomorrow with Hugh on board, think he's got as much of a chance as anyone.

Noticed my boy Ginga Dude has shortened quite a bit already too.

 

[Lockyer24]

I'm rattled now on the MV cup, seth your push for Americain and Ron Dufficy on twitter just ruled out Tullamore completely....

 

[plays tall 1]

I agree with Seth on Americain. On weights he does look the goods. Will be my biggest bet of the day.

Next best is Karuta Queen - hopefully she'll get some peace in front. Just need Vatican to not make a nuisance of himself.

In the Cox Plate I'll back Glass Harmonium. I like Helmet but I've got plenty of doubles around him already. One that will be going in all multiples just in case is Efficient - he's on a Cox Plate/Zipping Classic prep this time so I expect him to be competitive (sounds reminiscent of when Makybe Diva was on a different prep when chasing her third cup and she won the CP that year). Other times when he's been in the Cox Plate he's been on Cup preps.

And in the last Lady Lynette. Got some weight, yes, and was ordinary last start but track and distance form is excellent.

 

[sethlad]

I'm rattled now on the MV cup, seth your push for Americain and Ron Dufficy on twitter just ruled out Tullamore completely....

His fitness levels are a guess but if it was a hcp he'd be giving these plenty.
Obviously Illo is an unknown but on ratings Harris Tweed is his closest & I give him little hope
Nash wont die wondering on Tullamore but theres a reason theres 6kg between them in the MC weights

seth

 

[mattys123]

Just on Americain, apparently he is going better currently then he was before the Geelong Cup last year, well that's according to connections anyway.

If you are looking at his form, forget his last run, he bumbled the start and never got going.

As far as weight goes, ignore it with this horse, like most European horses, he's used to carrying more weight then 58, and he's only carrying a kilo or two more then his competition here.

My problem with Americain tomorrow is he's a genuine stayer, who loves long straights to get wound up on, but if they go early (800m out for example) he will outlast them all.

I've backed Illo for the cup, but I'm not touching it tomorrow, I reckon it's a typical Bart horse, and this is it's first major run of the campaign, it will improve dramatically on whatever it does here, and drops weight for the MC too.

My MV cup tips;

1. Americain
5. Shewan
13. Lalla Rookh
6. Illo
4. Tullamore (bad rumours going around about this horse and tomorrow).

 

[flea29]

Thinking of using the IAS bonus bet on KQ

 

[sethlad]

Dont forget how close he was in the run at Geelong 1st up last year.
He has tactical speed,remember how he dashed in the last 150 when the split came.

seth

 

[uptheblues]

Very confident on Twilighting, will be my biggest bet for the day.

 

[The_Next_JB]

Thinking of using the IAS bonus bet on KQ

same. What do people think the odds will do? is it worth locking in the fixed price now or early tomorrow as he'll probably come in? or would you take the city super price, and hope that one of the tab's offers a nice price?

 

[Beauy420]

Moonee Valley 22/10/11

Rc1 Rise To The Top
Rc2 Classic Elle
Rc3 Karuta Queen
Rc 7 Testa My Patience
Rc9 Lady Lynette

Cox Plate:

Very very tough field, Mooney Valley has wide corners which is why only 1 horse has won the Cox Plate from outside barrier 6 in 25 years.

Traditionally 3YO have struggled aswell, based on these Helmet is lay of the day, i really dont think he can adapt to the rise in distance either based on his last performance.

If your looking for value, go with Kings Rose, racing in top form.

Rekindled Interest has a good track record and is peaking for this race.

And Jimmy Choux for obvious reasons.

Pinker Pinker is the best outsider of the lot in terms of form, hasnt done alot wrong and could be worth chucking 5 on for the place @ $8

In no particular order:

Rekindled Interest
Jimmy Choux
Kings Rose

These are the 3 i think are capable of winning providing they get a clear run.

Good luck everyone

 

[The_Big_Ship]

So will ISAbet refund your stake as a 'free bet' that you have to turn over, or will the money just be refunded to your account and you can take it out straight away?

 

[The_Doctor]

It will be cash but you still have to turn it over i think

 

[d-mac3276]

Race 1- Lamingtons- Only exposed form i've seen out of this race

Race 2- Twilighting- Classic Elle gets 3 kgs off her from a 3 length defeat and not sure if that'll be enough

Race 3- Beckon- Looks very promising this horse. Miss Stellabelle the danger

Race 4- Manawanui- Should be lining up in the Cox Plate

Race 5- Black Caviar- Nothing more to say here

Race 6- Americain- At the weights it should handle these

Race 7- He's Remarkable- Bit of a spruik on this horse for today, a mate of mine spoke to Corey Brown and he said it'll definitely run top 3

Race 8- Helmet- If he gets the distance and wasn't overtaxed from the Guineas run it wins

Race 9- Lady Lynette- Beaten a length 3rd behind Kings Rose and Pinker Pinker with 57 kgs at Group 2 level two runs back at the course and distance and goes up 1 kg from that run in a Group 3 race. But In saying all that i don't mind Raspberries either

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

r1 RISE TO THE TOP
r2 EURYALE
r3 RED RAIN
r4 MANAWANUI
r5 BLACK CAVIAR
r6 ILLO
r7 GINGA DUDE
r8 KINGS ROSE
t9 HI BELLE

All the best punters!

 

[muttley45]

lion tamer following same path as so you think via underwood stakes where he gave southern speed windburn,each way all day

 

[WeninRome]

The Cox Plate


1. EFFICIENT

The 2007 Melbourne Cup winner who is third-up going into the race, didn’t really show much whilst second-up he got going towards the end but never really threatened when a 5L 8th behind December Draw. However, it must be noted that he finished a dead heat with Rekindled Interest. He has won at this track and over this distance before. Last time third-up he won the Turnbull Stakes in 2009. During the week I received a tip from a solid source to get on him. Great each-way chance.



3. WALL STREET

Kiwi galloper who is having his second go at the Cox Plate. Ran in 7th behind So You Think last year where he was coming off two solid wins and a placing. Didn’t really show much this time where he has been well held by 2nd favourite Jimmy Choux and recent Toorak winner King Mufhasa in his two runs in NZ. Came home alright in the Toorak and showed a little more. Rough place hope.



4. GLASS HARMONIUM

Really pushed December Draw to the line last start in the Turnbull where he was beaten by a short head. He really impressed me with that run, which showed real guts and determination. Will be rock hard fit and the barrier will allow him to roll forward to his preferred position. He’ll give the pack something to chase and will be in this till the end. It must be noted though that he has had a very long campaign.



5. JIMMY CHOUX

Another Kiwi who is a real danger in this race. Form reads well with a win over King Mufhasa in NZ. Had an easy kill after that where the run just seemed to help him out fitness wise before making the trip to Australia. A lot of attention was made into his not-so flash piece of trackwork but I’m not reading into at all. He won the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m with such a dominant run. Proven group one galloper in Australia who is in this race up to ears. Great chance.



6. SINCERO

What a great story this horses’ career has become. Bought for just $8000, he has won just under $1.5 million and has a great chance to top up his earnings in the Cox Plate. He run the quickest final 200m last start in the Caulfield Stakes where the pace didn’t really suit. The key gear change of putting on blinkers improves his chances greatly. He’ll concede a few lengths to the leaders but will running on at the end.



7. LION TAMER

Another Kiwi runner! Ran a second over this track/distance in the AAMI Vase to Rekindled Interest last year. Great second-up run in the Underwood where he romped home with a nice victory over eventual Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed. Started at silly odds in his next start and didn’t show up at all. Very tough barrier to overcome. If he can run up to his Underwood race he is a good each-way chance.



8. PLAYING GOD

Didn’t show much last start and I don’t really expect him to show much here. Previous effort against December Draw was fair where he slowly made ground but didn’t threaten at all. Has alot to do from the awkward draw. Needs a lot of luck.



9. REKINDLED INTEREST

Been all the rage this week with plenty of support for the Conlan trained galloper. Has a solid record over this course and is unbeaten over this distance. Opened at 13’s but there is no value at his price now. Gets a good barrier and will be able to slot in where he feels comfortable. Will make his presence felt in this race and is a must for multiples.



10. SHAMROCKER

Beat only one runner home in the Underwood but showed a slight improvement in the Turnbull. Still out of it in this race and will need a miracle to figure.



11. PINKER PINKER

Greg Eurell trained mare who has been running some brilliant races including a 2nd in the Epsom. Before that she has some good form including finishing runner-up to King’s Rose at the Valley. Her odds are very attractive and she commands attention. A great each-way chance and a win wouldn’t surprise.



12. SECRET ADMIRER

Sydney galloper who lost a lot of admirers with her disappointing 4th in the Shannon Stakes. One start later and she overcomes a bad barrier and flies home to win the Epsom. Untried over this distance and the Melbourne way of going. Track reports from the stable are encouraging and they are reasonably confident. A must for multiples going by her run in the Epsom.



13. KING’S ROSE

Former Kiwi galloper who has been in the care of trainer Peter Moody. She has done nothing wrong in her 3 starts and is entitled to get her chance to run in this race. 2 starts over this distance for 2 wins and is 1 from 1 at this track. Is a great chance and could give this a shake.



14. HELMET

The emerging superstar of the Spring and is deserved favourite. He has really excelled in the Melbourne way of going. Ran a race record last start in the Caulfield Guineas and showed real guts to keep fighting the finish. The scratching of Descarado allows Helmet to get across a little easier from gate 11 and will get a nice sit. There are queries over whether he can run the distance out but I don’t think there are any problems there. He ran a solid mile in the Champagne Stakes (as a 2yo) on a heavy track, which can indicate that he can run out a solid 2000m. He will figure in the finish and the stable are very confident.



15. AVIENUS

Gains a start with the scratching of Descarado. Ran a solid race last start where she was far from disgraced. Barrier is a concern and needs to show a bit more improvement.


There has been lots of money for Helmet overnight, looks the one to beat. Though none of its breeding has ever provided a 2000m horse. 3 year olds have had a great history recently though and it is clearly the class horse in the race + the weight advantage. Hard to ignore really and with Descarado out, this can only help.

If there was one I am leaning to now it’s probably Secret Admirer – I’m not sure the public rate her as well as she is. She could be a superstar and at current odds, she is massive value.

I think Rekindled Interest is way unders atm. $6 is a joke. People over reacted to Tuesday.

Jimmy Choux apparently smashed sectionals at Flemington yesterday morning.

So at the moment I see it as the following:

Helmet to beat Secret Admirer (who will fly home late), Glass Harmonium who will guts it out and Efficient/Rekindled Interest (who I can’t split after their last run). With Kings Rose, Jimmy and Lion Tamer possible for a place.


A Look At The Other Races


R1 Inglis Banner

Probably follow the market here with so many unraced 2yo’s. Great form with RISE TO THE TOP and LAMINGTONS will be better for the experience.



R2 Essendon Jeep Stakes

TWILIGHTING was pretty impressive last start over this distance/track with an on-pace effort. Having said that, CLASSIC ELLE could turn the tables with a decent turn-around in weights.



R3 1300 Australia Stakes

Going with KARUTA QUEEN. A solid 4L 2nd to Black Caviar is enough form for me. BECKON and MISS STELLABELLE have both been impressive last two starts and will be chasing the speed queen till the end.



R4 Mitchelton Wines Vase

MANAWANUI shouldn’t have trouble accounting for this field.



R5 Schweppes Stakes

How far will she win by? 4.5 to 6 lengths is $3.70. BLACK CAVIAR.



R6 Drake International Cup

I can see TULLAMORE stealing some cheap sectionals here and running on. He is having a quick back-up and should be able set a nice steady pace. AMERICAIN a danger but I’d rather see how he runs before jumping on. SHEWAN is an up and comer who can certainly make his presence felt. ILLO is an interesting runner and market watch is advised.



R7 Crystal Mile

Good race this one. GINGA DUDE is pretty solid odds in this race. A bit disappointing last start but ran a solid race before that at this track. If he can get a good sit and lead he is a great each way chance. TESTAMYPATIENCE has been racing well of late. Got the winner’s cheque last start and will come close again. LUEN YAT FOREVER is running his best races in Australia to date. I’m cautious about the tight-turning Moonee Valley track but will figure at the end. I’m on him for the Emirates @ 15’s. DAO DAO should figure as well.



R9 Trojan Hand Tools Stakes

HI BELLE is a mare in form and will be hard to toss. LADY LYNETTE should improve after a disappointing run last start. She hasn’t missed a place going around the 1600m at the Valley and should be prominent at the end.




Best bets in Melbourne

Race 2 – Classic Elle – with Torah having some strong support from Newcastle

Race 3 – Miss Stellabelle – Beckon is the fav, but I feel number 2 will get it

Race 7 – Little nibble on Silver Grecian – He’s Remarkable massive overs and Ginger Dude loves the Valley (and the wet)

Race 8 – Helmet just wins (or so the punters hope!) – Efficient and Secret Admirer is the dangers – she killed me two starts ago and annoyed me one start ago with her barnstorming finish. I honestly think she could be an absolute star. Sydney horses seem to be the toast of the town so a one two would not surprise me.

Race 9 – Little Surfer Girl – Get on now, she killed it this week at track work.

 

[Cuzz09]

Sincero to place @ $5.50 on Centrebet fixed odds.... Paying on first 4 placings.

 

[Beauy420]

Do i get a bigger percentage of the big 6 now booming is scratched?

 

[Cuzz09]

Do i get a bigger percentage of the big 6 now booming is scratched?

Yeah I think thats how it works... Im in the same boat with another race.

 

[mattys123]

Sincero to place @ $5.50 on Centrebet fixed odds.... Paying on first 4 placings.

Yeah, I've already loaded up on Jimmy at $2.10 the place, no way that horse doesn't finish top 4, he's too bloody good, even in this field.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Do i get a bigger percentage of the big 6 now booming is scratched?

Yeah I think thats how it works... Im in the same boat with another race.

No, you'll get the substitute in whatever leg your horse was scratched from. It may be a horse you already have, and in the case you're successful, you'll get the div twice. If you don't have the sub already, you'll have the same percentage.

 

[Cuzz09]

Yeah, I've already loaded up on Jimmy at $2.10 the place, no way that horse doesn't finish top 4, he's too bloody good, even in this field.

Seems like the "high roller" punters would smash this type of bet...wonder if there is anywhere to find out the biggest bets people put on each race?

 

[Cuzz09]

No, you'll get the substitute in whatever leg your horse was scratched from. It may be a horse you already have, and in the case you're successful, you'll get the div twice. If you don't have the sub already, you'll have the same percentage.

Oh really? is the sub the fav??