England won't be confident of a win unless they score at least 350. With the score as it is at the moment(2/140 after 23.3) England should be about 180-190 after 30 and the old adage of doubling the score in the last 20 overs should happen with this pitch as true as it is.
Australia have saved at least 7 runs that I have noticed in the last 5 overs with good fielding. They need to keep this up and apply pressure so that wickets fall. If England are 2 down after 30 they will be able to accelerate.
EDIT : Australia did exactly that, kept up the pressure which led to rash shots from England and seven catches in the deep. After England lost their 3rd wicket at 157 wickets fell pretty regularly and they could not get into a rhythm. As I said, it is a 300-350 pitch and even with a good bowling performance England are right on the back foot.
What's your strike rate?