Player Watch Darcy Fogarty

How many goals will Darcy Fogarty kick in 2023?

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Vader said:
You can divide Fogarty's career (to date) into 3 distinct segments - which I will call "Bad Old" Fog, "Good" Fog, and "Bad New" Fog.

Bad Old Fog (R1 2018 - R10 2022)
The Bad Old Fog days were defined by inconsistency, not just from game to game, but quarter to quarter. Fog would often play brilliant cameos, lasting one quarter, but being largely invisible for the rest of the game. To be fair, the selectors didn't pick him regularly during this period - but his form didn't exactly demand regular selection either. In this period he played 46 games, averaging 8.1 disposals and 1.1 goals per game, with a best return of 5 goals (and another 4 games where he kicked bags of 3).

The most notable, arguably defining, characteristic of this period was his accuracy in front of goal - he kicked a total of 52.20 during this period (72.2% accuracy), and was the 3rd most accurate goal scorer in AFL/VFL history at the time of his 50th goal.

His potential during this period was obvious. We saw during those all-too-brief cameo performances just how good he could be. The problem was how to unlock the potential. The coaches tried playing him in the midfield and even in defence (in the SANFL) to try and coach him into becoming more involved in the game for longer. Nothing seemed to work, until it did, resulting in the Good Fog era...

Good Fog (R11 2022 - R6 2023)
During the 2022 pre-season Fog worked with Burgess to improve his fitness. He also worked with an unnamed sports psychologist, who helped him with his confidence. The results of the work done, on both mind & body, were remarkable.

In 16 games he kicked 44.15, at 74.5% accuracy, averaging 2.75 goals and 11.4 disposals per game. Finally, we saw the Fog that we'd been waiting for since the excitement of his initial drafting. Fog dominated, and Crows fans (including myself) couldn't have been happier to see his career blossoming.

This was the Fog playing at his full potential, and we all thought he had the world at his feet - and that he was finally stepping up, ready to become Walker's successor as the leader of our forward line.

Sadly, it wasn't to last...

Bad New Fog (R7 2023 - present)
The current period stands at 22 games, and counting. In this period he's gone back to averaging 1.1 goals per game, though his disposal numbers have improved (relative to the Bad Old days) to 10.5 per game. Worst, his goal kicking accuracy has deserted him - he's gone from 72% (Bad Old) and 74% (Good) to just 52%.

Unlike the Bad Old Fog days, he's playing games more consistently - the cameo performances are now gone, replaced by a more even performance across the duration of whole games, and from one game to the next. He seems to be playing further up the ground, winning more disposals on the wings than inside the F50, which may partly account for the reduction in his goal scoring.

The reality is though, that he's not offering enough further up the ground to counter the lack of goal scoring - and his reduced accuracy means that he's no longer such a dangerous target when he does get the ball inside scoring range.

As a forward, the Bad New Fog is struggling to win his own ball. Yes, delivery into our forward line was bloody awful in the first 4 games, but Fog hasn't helped his own cause either. Don't forget that the Bad New Fog era also spans the back half of 2023, when Adelaide was the highest scoring team in the competition, yet Fog was still struggling to make an impact. Delivery was not a problem at that time.

As AFC979810 has pointed out, his performances in this period are little different to those of Himmelberg, who has spent the last 12 months playing in the SANFL.

The big question is this - how do we get the Bad New Fog to revert to the form he showed in the Good Fog days? Maybe it's a simple as spending more time with the shrink. I don't know. What I do know is that the Good Fog era showed us what he's capable of, and we need to be seeing more of that (and less of the Bad New Fog).

Why Persist?
As I see it, there are 2 main reasons - hope, and a lack of alternative options.

The Good Fog era showed us exactly what he's capable of, when everything clicks. Nothing Himmelberg has ever done, or is ever likely to do, comes close to matching Fog's performances during this period. One of the main reasons for his ongoing selection is the hope that he will find that form again. However, he's now well into his 8th season, and there's only so long that a club can keep selecting a player based solely on potential - at some point the player's actual (disappointing) level of performance has to become the determining factor.

If we're to drop the Bad New Fog, then we need to replace him with someone who will perform better - and right now, no such player exists on our team list. Himmelberg is no better than the Bad New Fog, and not even in the same postcode as Good Fog. Similarly, Burgess & Gollant are no improvement, though both have an additional string to their bow as ruck support for ROB. That leaves Curtin as a longer-term option, but the coaches seem determined to play him in defence.

Fogarty's position will remain secure until the club can secure a better alternative. In 2025 we'll have Welsh on the list, but that could be balanced by the retirement of Walker (if/when that day comes). Given the urgency of improving our midfield, I'd suggest it's unlikely that we'll be recruiting anyone capable of forcing Fogarty out any time soon. In the meantime, the best we can do is cross our fingers and pray for a return to the Good Fog days.
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Pent up much

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The most disappointing thing is he's back to wrestling

Either he isn't working hard enough to get separation, or teams have figured out that tackling him in marking contests is extremely effective and is never penalized. I think it's a bit of both. He's like a Sloane that struggles with a hard tag.

Rahilly worked quite hard to stop him from engaging in a wrestle before the ball is targeted towards him. He's reverted back to his old ways.

We do struggle to hit him inside 50 when he's open but I also do agree with Firewalker that some of his leads are not ideal. Sometimes hitting him on a lead would require a legitimately elite kick because he might only end up 30m from the ball carrier whose running forward at pace. It's bloody difficult to nail a 30m kick at full pace, especially if the kick needs to be angled.

He seems to want to be a Tom Hawkins type that can blatantly push defenders in the back and never give away a free wrestle opponents out the way to take a stationary mark inside 50 but he's never really been capable of that
 

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There was a reason Fog slid on draft night, and we have unfortunately seen why. One of those classic cases of being much bigger than most of his peers at underage level, which he used to his advantage. You can't rely on that at the top level.

He's a similar height/shape to Tex/Hawkins, but doesn't have their forward craft. He's too big, slow and doesn't have the tank to be a hit up half forward where he can use his skills. He doesn't have the athleticism of a 3rd or 4th tall that will stretch opposition back lines. He doesn't apply a great amount of inside 50 pressure when the ball hits the deck. He isn't dynamic enough for the midfield, nor does he have that ability apart from being a Cam Zurhaar kind of burst player. In previous years where he may not get much of the ball, he'd still be an absolute dead eye in front of goal. He's only going at 43% this year.

Has Tex's longer than expected career impacted Fog? It's not like he's taken any headlines when Tex isn't playing. His current form may be a result of our inside 50 entries, but 6 goals in 7 isn't pretty. Maybe Fog has reached his ceiling and he's the kind of player we need to move on whilst he has value.
 
beartoo said:
We need to face the fact that he's most likely a bust. Is it 7 or 8 years on the list now and still waiting for the break out?
We need someone in his place that can football.
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The frustrating thing is that the "Good Fog" era, from mid-2022 to early-2023, showed that he is capable of playing good football, and doing so consistently for a prolonged period of time.

The question is why he then regressed, into the "Bad New Fog" era, and how we can get the "Good Fog" back again?

If we never see Good Fog again, then his career (and our draft pick) will have been a bust. However, we don't have anyone better on our list right now, and the coaches/selectors will continue to pick him in the hope of seeing a return of the Good Fog. Whether or not that hope is forlorn remains to be seen.
 
Vader said:
The frustrating thing is that the "Good Fog" era, from mid-2022 to early-2023, showed that he is capable of playing good football, and doing so consistently for a prolonged period of time.

The question is why he then regressed, into the "Bad New Fog" era, and how we can get the "Good Fog" back again?

If we never see Good Fog again, then his career (and our draft pick) will have been a bust. However, we don't have anyone better on our list right now, and the coaches/selectors will continue to pick him in the hope of seeing a return of the Good Fog. Whether or not that hope is forlorn remains to be seen.
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It might have as much to do with the way the team is playing (both midfield performance and field structure) as it does to do with his own confidence. He's shanking some kicks and seems to have less bustle about him, but the ball is also not finding him as much. If the team has an uptick in performance (let's face it, we're playing at least a tiny bit better than we were in rounds 1-3) I'd expect an improvement.
 
Carn The Texan said:
It might have as much to do with the way the team is playing (both midfield performance and field structure) as it does to do with his own confidence. He's shanking some kicks and seems to have less bustle about him, but the ball is also not finding him as much. If the team has an uptick in performance (let's face it, we're playing at least a tiny bit better than we were in rounds 1-3) I'd expect an improvement.
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Actually, he's finding almost as much of the ball as he did during the "Good Fog" era - 10.5 disposals per game, vs 11.5. He's well up on his output from the Bad Old Fog era, where his average was well in the single digits.

The problem is that many of his disposals are now further up the ground, on the wings... and on the increasingly rare occasions that he does get it within scoring range he's becoming increasingly inaccurate (now going at 52%, compared to 70+% in both the Bad Old Fog and Good Fog eras).

Don't forget that the Bad New Fog era also encompasses 2/3 of the 2023 season, when we were the highest scoring team in the competition. I just don't buy any arguments about poor delivery or a lack of opportunities being the problem last year - it's arguably the case this year, but it certainly doesn't hold water for his poor finish to 2023.

Putting aside the first 3 rounds, where our midfield was comprehensively smashed... we've looked a lot better in the last few weeks, with wins over Carlton & Norf, and the Essendon game going down to the wire. In the last 3 games he's had 11, 12, and 9 disposals, kicking 3.2. I'm not seeing anything there which indicates that a better team performance has resulted in a better Fog performance.
 
I think he'll just be a player that disappoints for his whole career, but never quite plays poorly enough to be dropped. He'll probably play 200 games for us, pop up once or twice a year with a good game winning game and spend the rest of the year being mostly invisible.

That's just who he is.
 

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beartoo said:
We need to face the fact that he's most likely a bust. Is it 7 or 8 years on the list now and still waiting for the break out?
We need someone in his place that can football.

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I don’t think he’s a bust. He needs to play CHF with Tex in the square. His goal accuracy has waned of late making his returns look meagre.
 
Burtonsgottago said:
I don’t think he’s a bust. He needs to play CHF with Tex in the square. His goal accuracy has waned of late making his returns look meagre.
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But Fogarty’s big strength has always been that he is so dangerous WHEN he gets the ball. The assumption/hope was that we’d be able to get an extra 5-10 touches out of him and turn him into a 2-3 goal, 5-10 score involvements per game type player. That hasn’t happened and we need it to.

Again, I’m not a Fog hater, I see the talent. But he’s 24, in his 7th year and has played 85 games. We put him in the leadership group. At some point we can’t keep judging him on potential and have to judge him on output.
 
Crom14 said:
There was a reason Fog slid on draft night, and we have unfortunately seen why. One of those classic cases of being much bigger than most of his peers at underage level, which he used to his advantage. You can't rely on that at the top level.

He's a similar height/shape to Tex/Hawkins, but doesn't have their forward craft. He's too big, slow and doesn't have the tank to be a hit up half forward where he can use his skills. He doesn't have the athleticism of a 3rd or 4th tall that will stretch opposition back lines. He doesn't apply a great amount of inside 50 pressure when the ball hits the deck. He isn't dynamic enough for the midfield, nor does he have that ability apart from being a Cam Zurhaar kind of burst player. In previous years where he may not get much of the ball, he'd still be an absolute dead eye in front of goal. He's only going at 43% this year.

Has Tex's longer than expected career impacted Fog? It's not like he's taken any headlines when Tex isn't playing. His current form may be a result of our inside 50 entries, but 6 goals in 7 isn't pretty. Maybe Fog has reached his ceiling and he's the kind of player we need to move on whilst he has value.
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Well, he looked very effective a few years ago which was his "break out" season........
 
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