Preview DaVe86 - Match Preview - 1st Prelim Collingwood vs. Geelong

[adamov13]

Amazing preview as usual mate!

Can't believe how nervous I am.

 

[NeonLeon1]

I'm a mess.

Thanks Dave.

 

[DaVe86]

Good point Ricmel, and exactly what i was trying to say. The Cats are the comeback kings...and in a qualifying final they have no reason to lie down. I think they eased off in Round 19 when they realised they weren't going to win. This time, they will fight right down to the wire.

Agree also that our fitness could be a key.

 

[The Magnificent Seven]

BTW why did you have to pick us for the win? You know it's bad vibes to do that!! You're making me more nervous...

I'm usually superstitious. But this year... I've come to the realisation that finals are probability-based. No matter how many cracks on the pavement we step on, or black cats that get in our way... our boys are simply up to the task this year.

Collingwood finished on top - they're going to win. They're ready.

 

[DaVe86]

I think i've tipped Collingwood everytime over the last 2 months. The superstition is well and truly busted.

Now i'm too scared to tip against.

 

[daics_35]

I think it could be a similar finish like the 2007 Semi final v WCE where all the players were in one half going just tackle after tackle. God I hope we win.

 

[ralu]

I also would like to see Macaffer go to Corey Enright. If we can win the contested ball in the middle, then our forward press will become pivotal. Here, Geelong will have to slice through it with precise kicking. Here i think of Enright, Mackie, Scarlett and Hunt.

1. Let Caff tag Enright to limit his influence.
2. Hopefully Mackie doesnt play. He is weak as p!ss but is a very nice kick of the footy.
3. Get Leon to completely take Hunt out of the play. Keep him isolated.
4. Try to get Scarlett out of the play too.
5. Wojo doesnt worry me too much. We must try and limit his run but I am happy to see the ball is his or Lonergans hands because they are extremely suspect with their ball use.

 

[daics_35]

I also would like to see Macaffer go to Corey Enright. If we can win the contested ball in the middle, then our forward press will become pivotal. Here, Geelong will have to slice through it with precise kicking. Here i think of Enright, Mackie, Scarlett and Hunt.

1. Let Caff tag Enright to limit his influence.
2. Hopefully Mackie doesnt play. He is weak as p!ss but is a very nice kick of the footy.
3. Get Leon to completely take Hunt out of the play. Keep him isolated.
4. Try to get Scarlett out of the play too.
5. Wojo doesnt worry me too much. We must try and limit his run but I am happy to see the ball is his or Lonergans hands because they are extremely suspect with their ball use.

I believe Leigh Brown is the perfict man to take Scarlett out of the play. Rocca done it a few years back and Leigh is the player that I think can succeed in doing that. For Wojo, if we apply the forward preasure like we did last time Wojo wont do s**t.

 

[Snoop Dog]

DaVe....terrific. I hope you haven't saved your best for the 2nd last game.

Few observations;

- It's only about clearances. If we win those the rest takes care of itself include the zone

- therefore ball, swan, pendles and of course jolly are probably the most important four from our side

- keep choppy and gazza quiet or at least have them in our fwd 50 chasing kicks

- neon needs to be dangerous or else he becomes a liability and someone they play off

- Fwds need to kick straight. Cannot leave them in the game or get to far behind.

- we have a lot of kids and they need to cope with the occasion. This hasn't been talked about but this ain't a h&a game in front of 70,000......it's got so much more riding on it.

- Collingwood win and I think they will win GF, don't think the cats will if they do, that's not being petty rather just think friday night will take to much out given no week off

- history says 4 grand finals in a row is nigh impossible so believe in history my fellow Piemen!

 

[Old Spice]

I don't mind Cafe on Chapman for all ground purposes, hardness and role

 

[DaVe86]

What MM does with Macaffer is the real question.

I have him on Chapman for 2 reasons

- Body wise, he is a great match-up and he can take CHapman in whatever role he plays.

- I have Enright playing more defensively on Didak. Didak tore them to pieces in R19...if they leave him to do that again they are stupid. Enright is a logical match-up for Didak.


HOwever, alternatively they could use Ablett head to head on Swan, Put Kelly on Didak and leave Enright loose. If this is the case, then I'd use Macaffer on Enright because Caff can become more dangerous.

 

[knightwheelrqr]

Enjoyed reading your preview again DaVe. Outstanding work and hope the club keep you on as a regular writer for collingwoodfc.com.au

One matchup I'm pretty keen to see is Dane Swan – Gary Ablett. Wellingham has always been my favourite option for Ablett and he has had some outstanding performces against the star midfielder, but from all reports I have heard Ablett is very keen to have the matchup on Swan and wants to go head to head, will be interesting to see if it eventuates.



The one matchup I don't particularly like is Macaffer to Chapman. I completely understand your logic and I agree with it entirely. I think Chapman is Geelong's single most dangerous player to be honest. But with that said I do think Shaw/ Johnson are the best options to go with Chapman (even if physically they are no match) because I view the role Macaffer plays as a defensive forward to be both his best one and for team chemistry purposes the most important one for mine because we simply have so few forward options in this team and if we do win the ball out of the centre more than Geelong, Macaffer will play a big part in keeping the ball forward with his outstanding tackling game.

 

[BACCS]

I read these nearly every week Dave, and they never fail to dissapoint. Highly informative, and the depths you go into with your analysis of matchups, gameplans etc. is unrivalled IMO. As it is a prelim, I'm tipping with my heart a little bit, like yourself...
Geelong by 7.

 

[Frankie23]

I think we are underestimating the importance of Sharrod having a big game here. The clearances are VITAL for a win, in round 19 Sharrod was huge around the clearances...which we won 46-29

What is concerning is the 11 less clearances we had against the Dogs. While they hav good clearance players such as Boyd and Cross, I'm looking at Sharrod going off/ being tagged out of the game as a likely cause for this.

Another is the fact against Geelong Pendles and Swanny had 13 between them, against the Doggies they had 3. If we limit Selwood and Bartel especially, and win the ball out of the middle, whereby forcing the play into our 50 I will be confident of a win.

 

[the_champ_2004]

Thought you should know, I just logged into my facebook and notice a link on my sisters page. I thought that she had just put up a link to the Collingwood page and that the thumbnail was just the first picture on that site as happens nut as I looked closer I saw that my sister has posted up a link of your article dave. I know for a fact that she's not a big footy follower so this Collingwood gig is drumming you up support. Plus given she put up a link you should get more traffic.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

What MM does with Macaffer is the real question.

I have him on Chapman for 2 reasons

- Body wise, he is a great match-up and he can take CHapman in whatever role he plays.

- I have Enright playing more defensively on Didak. Didak tore them to pieces in R19...if they leave him to do that again they are stupid. Enright is a logical match-up for Didak.


HOwever, alternatively they could use Ablett head to head on Swan, Put Kelly on Didak and leave Enright loose. If this is the case, then I'd use Macaffer on Enright because Caff can become more dangerous.

The Bolded text above is what i would prefer. Enright in a overly negative role really cuts down our thrust from defense. He plays best when given just enough lee-way to work as a creative HB, IMO. Joel Corey spent time at HB during the Freo game (for the first time in a while). Would not be surprised if we see more of the same on Friday night.

 

[Murraj1966]

I only just noticed that you were on the Collingwood website when I checked each of the remaining 4 teams for kicks, congrats on the call up Dave! (even if I'm fairly late)

 

[THATSGOLD]

great read.. i just hope didak can produce another 35 possie game again too. I can't see it though.. hopefully his shoulder doesn't cause him any concern as this is going to be more physical than the bulldogs game.
Its also time for davis to pull his finger out against hunt!

 

[PCORF]

I think both teams will be under huge pressure and both will be desperate. Geelong have won a couple of preimerships in recent years and Collingwood hasn't won one in 20 years and they will be desperate. Should be an absolute nail biter!

I really wan't Geelong to win. But my gut feeling is Magpies by 5 points in front of 90,000 at the G in a similar game to last year's semi final.

 

[Snoop Dog]

The one matchup I don't particularly like is Macaffer to Chapman. I completely understand your logic and I agree with it entirely. I think Chapman is Geelong's single most dangerous player to be honest. But with that said I do think Shaw/ Johnson are the best options to go with Chapman (even if physically they are no match) because I view the role Macaffer plays as a defensive forward to be both his best one and for team chemistry purposes the most important one for mine because we simply have so few forward options in this team and if we do win the ball out of the centre more than Geelong, Macaffer will play a big part in keeping the ball forward with his outstanding tackling game.

yeah DaVe must admit I am with Knighta on this one. I think Caf has struggled when he has been drawn into a midfield tag. Griffin ripped him up and given Chappy is a better player this matchup would make me nervous. I think the trick with Geelong (not unlike ourselves) is to force them into 1:1 contests in their def half. So Caf to Enright is one for me that I would like to see. Also Caf can kick goals in this role as per Saints game so I think the Cats would rather not see him in our fwd line.

Fwds

I also think whilst Taylor might get Cloke it may not be for long. Cloke has taken to Taylor the last couple of times early and Bomber has switched Lonergan onto him with v good results so I wouldnt surprised to see that happen straight away. For mine the defensive matchups should / may be;

Dawes - Taylor
Brown - Scarlett
Davis - Wojo
Beams - Hunt / Milburn
Cloke - Lonergan
Caf - Enright

Mids

I think both coaches will back their star off each other which is going to make it a great GF. Also I would be thinking that Ling will go to Pendles given he did a reasonable job last time and they will want Ling in the middle early. If it doesnt work he will get Maxwell and that would worry me. Rest i think are right. Selwood and Ball is a given and as someone said well worth admission price on its own this matchup. I would have Wellers on Chappy and probably think about Didak on Bartel as well just bc I think Dids will be better raoming free and bc he is so crucial to our delivery...not sure Cats will allow it but we should back Dids in to be more damaging than Bartel. Thomas and Kelly will also happen I think. So mids are;

Jolly - Ottens
Swan - Ablett
Didak - Bartel (note - I think Dids will start on bench)
Wellingham - Chapman
Pendlebury - Ling (dont be surprised if Pendles starts on pine)
Thomas - Kelly
Ball - Selwood

Backs

Down back I think it is reasonably clear. Johnson and Mooney need to be shut down and if you do that then you are a long way to home. Presti is crucial bc Cats are v good leading up at footy and creating space. I worry about Brown in this set up. Whoever plays FF gets Presti - I think this will be Mooney. The problem matchup I think is if Cats play only two talls in which case Maxy probably gets Varcoe or Stokes.....we underestimate both at our peril. Therefore;

Presti - Mooney (assuming he plays FF)
Reid - Pods
Harry - Stevie J
Maxwell - Stokes (assumiing he plays closer to goal than Byrnes)
Shaw - Byrnes
Johnson - Varcoe

Its hard to split isnt it.

 

[DaVe86]

Good discussion going on here. Love when this stuff happens.


Just a sneaky little request guys. My article has also gone up onto the big tip website. If some of ya's can click this link it would be great:

http://bit.ly/c06Tk7


I'm no longer getting paid for these articles because the site has changed their payment structure. The most popular article of the month gets a $200 award now. It looks like I'll win that award for my finals previews. Still I would like to keep my hits up.




I have to admit I agree that Macaffer's best position is as a defensive forward. However, his last 2 opponents have been Burgoyne and Griffen as a tagger through the middle.

 

[Quicky]

yeah DaVe must admit I am with Knighta on this one. I think Caf has struggled when he has been drawn into a midfield tag. Griffin ripped him up and given Chappy is a better player this matchup would make me nervous. I think the trick with Geelong (not unlike ourselves) is to force them into 1:1 contests in their def half. So Caf to Enright is one for me that I would like to see. Also Caf can kick goals in this role as per Saints game so I think the Cats would rather not see him in our fwd line.

Fwds

I also think whilst Taylor might get Cloke it may not be for long. Cloke has taken to Taylor the last couple of times early and Bomber has switched Lonergan onto him with v good results so I wouldnt surprised to see that happen straight away. For mine the defensive matchups should / may be;

Dawes - Taylor
Brown - Scarlett
Davis - Wojo
Beams - Hunt / Milburn
Cloke - Lonergan
Caf - Enright

Mids

I think both coaches will back their star off each other which is going to make it a great GF. Also I would be thinking that Ling will go to Pendles given he did a reasonable job last time and they will want Ling in the middle early. If it doesnt work he will get Maxwell and that would worry me. Rest i think are right. Selwood and Ball is a given and as someone said well worth admission price on its own this matchup. I would have Wellers on Chappy and probably think about Didak on Bartel as well just bc I think Dids will be better raoming free and bc he is so crucial to our delivery...not sure Cats will allow it but we should back Dids in to be more damaging than Bartel. Thomas and Kelly will also happen I think. So mids are;

Jolly - Ottens
Swan - Ablett
Didak - Bartel (note - I think Dids will start on bench)
Wellingham - Chapman
Pendlebury - Ling (dont be surprised if Pendles starts on pine)
Thomas - Kelly
Ball - Selwood

Backs

Down back I think it is reasonably clear. Johnson and Mooney need to be shut down and if you do that then you are a long way to home. Presti is crucial bc Cats are v good leading up at footy and creating space. I worry about Brown in this set up. Whoever plays FF gets Presti - I think this will be Mooney. The problem matchup I think is if Cats play only two talls in which case Maxy probably gets Varcoe or Stokes.....we underestimate both at our peril. Therefore;

Presti - Mooney (assuming he plays FF)
Reid - Pods
Harry - Stevie J
Maxwell - Stokes (assumiing he plays closer to goal than Byrnes)
Shaw - Byrnes
Johnson - Varcoe

Its hard to split isnt it.

Macaffer may have been torn up by Griffen but Griffen is a different type of player than Chapman and a match up I don't really think suited Macaffer. Macaffer got Chapman last time we played them and while Chapman still had some influence it was greatly reduced from his usual output. That is all we need from Macaffer because Geelong are such a great burst side, Chapman is usually the initiater, this is where I can see us losing the game so I think it's important we get this match up right. Macaffer is the man for mine.

Agree RE: Maxwell. That is an awefully dangerous match up for us. I think we will see Toovey get whoever the other F50 small (Stokes/Byrnes/Varcoe) and try to get Maxwell loose. Ling to Maxwell would be a real worry as it would shut down a lot of our drive while creating a dangerous offensive match up for the Cats. But the pay off may come in the middle where we have a dangerous midfielder like Pendles left with greater freedom so it may well be a win as long as we are winning the clearances as a result.

Man this is shaping up as a great game. Two such close and strong sides. The reigning empire and barbarians at the gate indeed.

 

[DaVe86]

I think it's going to be Maxwell on Hawkins. Hawkins is going to play at least 50% forward.

They don't kick to him...so he should be able to zone off quite well. The Cats tend to kick to Mooney or Pods over Hawkins.

 

[Mooney_d'King]

Excellent work Dave, really well balanced. I read it on the Collingwood website.

 

[Quicky]

I think it's going to be Maxwell on Hawkins. Hawkins is going to play at least 50% forward.

They don't kick to him...so he should be able to zone off quite well. The Cats tend to kick to Mooney or Pods over Hawkins.

I'd forgotten about Hawkins. Hawkins always cracks me up, he looks like a giant child running around on the footy field totally out of his depth. That match up would suit us, allowing Maxwell to play looser and rebound more.