Derby day

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rhinowce said:
Why not.. i had one of my best punting days ever last year(thanks to lion tamer) i find when its a bog track its alot easier too find winners bring on the rain....
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:thumbsu: Cannot agree more i find it alot easier to narrow the field down in wet weather and you can also find some nice value throughout the carnival if its wet weather beacuse there are alot of mug punters that just bet because its spring carnival, and dont look into the form of the horse.
 
It is funny how everyone has their preferences. Personally I prefer betting on good tracks - and the firmer the better! Just find the form much more predicatble on those kind of tracks and the best horses generally win.

Sprinkle a bit of water on the track and my punting ability disapears quicker than Let's Elope!
 
Yeah i get tips sometimes from a mate who is very much in the know, only bets on "certainties" albeit they are very lowly priced but usually win, he loves a double. He avoids heavy, wet tracks at all cost just will not bet on them.

Loves the predictable, increased data/sample you get from the good tracks.
 

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Sportsbet got me with the sneaky way they put your Spring Racing Tipping tips in the bet slip for ya.

So ive got $1.15 on

Race 1 Galah
Race 2 Green Moon
Race 3 Atlantic Jewel
Race 4 Sepoy
Race 5 Rekindled Interest
Race 6 Manawanui
Race 7 More Joyous
Race 8 Temple Of Boom
Race 9 Launay

Pays about $15k :rolleyes::thumbsu:
 
Lion Tamer may be the exception being from NZ but the horses that run at this time of year generally do most of their work in the autumn/spring and never see the wet. In AFL tribunal terms they have no applicable good or bad record. Complete crapshoot in the heavy.
 
Big Jono said:
Sportsbet got me with the sneaky way they put your Spring Racing Tipping tips in the bet slip for ya.

So ive got $1.15 on

Race 1 Galah
Race 2 Green Moon
Race 3 Atlantic Jewel
Race 4 Sepoy
Race 5 Rekindled Interest
Race 6 Manawanui
Race 7 More Joyous
Race 8 Temple Of Boom
Race 9 Launay

Pays about $15k :rolleyes::thumbsu:
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Not bad :thumbsu:
 
I'm going for Sabrage each way for the Derby, even though the barrier hurts his chances, it may be a blessing in disguise to not see the rail after 6 races are run on what might be a Slow track.

Manawanui will win if the track is Dead or better, so I'll hope it rains a heap.

Also putting something on Mr Chez for the place at 80's, I've followed him his whole campaign, and he is one horse who will run out the distance, even if he lacks the class of some of the others in the race.
 
Races 2,5 and 6 obviously the difficult ones. Decided to have a couple dollars on a few runners.

Sometimes I get a winner, but usually I just pickup places on my each way bets so don't follow my bets!!!

r2 1st GREEN MOON
r2 place TULLAMORE
r2 place 2.BOOMING
r2 place SPECHENKA
r2 place ANUDJAWUN

r3 place GIOE

r4 1st HOT SNITZEL

r5 1st EFFICIENT
r5 2nd GLASS HARMONIUM
r5 pl PRECEDENCE
r5 pl GINGA DUDE

r6 1st COLLAR
r6 2nd SCELTO
r6 3rd ZABEELIONAIRE

r8 1st CURTANA

r9 1st DOUBTFUL JACK
r9 place CHASM
 

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After AS9's brilliant idea to put Cardio Carl I will post some thoughts and tips for Derby Day as I won't have to worry about reading him scrutinising my picks and results. Which I sure he will do anyway.

I'm going to post some picks up tonight based on the 'guess' that it is going to be a Dead4 track.

Obviously if that changes (which, looking at the weather for tomorrow and saturday it probably will) so will my tips.

Absolutely fantastic day of racing as always and just hope it doesn't get too wet. Fantastic card.

Race 1 - Galah is deserved favourite, was brilliant at Caulfield when it was terrible out of the gates. Flew the last 400, running very quick sectionals (400-200 10.97, 200-Finish 11.52) when coming from last and just nabbing Masthead, which is clearly the form of the race. Highly Recommended was good in the same race when racing wide with no cover and still sticking on gamely for 3rd. Gets the 1kg weight pull. Meethaq comes from a different race than a lot of these and is jumping from a strong with on Thousand Guineas day (0-82) to the group 3 when beating home Collar who was the hot favourite that day, also beat home the Snitzel Colt First Course who races here as well. The clear worry for me for Galah is seemingly the lack of pace with First Course seeming to be the clear leader. I still think down the Flem straight McEvoy should be able to wind him up and get him home. If First Course can walk in front which he very well could, he may be tough to get past.

Race 2 - Awesome race with lots of Cup hopefuls, hard to know where to look. The top weight Tullamore was again good in the MV cup behind the irresistible Americain, was well beaten but beat the rest home comfortably. Green Moon was huge in the CC, absolutely massive. Raced wide for a lot of the race and dashed to the front at the turn before feeling the pinch with Southern Speed off the perfect run went past it. Draws barrier 6, along with the Hall/Hickmont combination, it is right in this. One of my Cup picks, Moyenne Corniche, who is right on the border of the OOE will be looking to win here to guarantee entry. It's win in the Ebor was fantastic and I think the Shewan/Tanby form is holding up exceptionally well when it got way back and really found the line. Barrier 13 the obvious worry but it has can make long sustained runs so might drop out.

I thought Niwot was exceptionally disappointing in the Caulfield cup, and before that to be honest I don't love his form lines. I don't mind the lightly raced Gallizani at good odds who's move through the grades has been both rapid and fantastic. It won a monday maiden at Pakenham just over a year ago, and has since moved through the grades notching up wins at Sandown, Rosehill and in it's last start Randwick when it flew from the back to get past Adroitly and Older Than Time who also runs here for Gai. Not sure if it can win on a dead track but the wetter the better for this one. If you rate the Geelong Cup form you have to give Showcause a chance here who only just finished off the front 3 there. It's best form is at 2400+ and from barrier 5 and the in form Newitt on board you have to consider him. I like Macedonian but in this class of field I just don't know if 2500 is far enough for him sounds funny but in the CC and the Herb Power he ran really well finishing off but never looked a danger. Flemington obviously suits and he has ran his best here, but not sure if he is quick enough to beat home this lot. If he somehow wins I think 3200 is right up his alley as everything points too that he will run out an extremely strong 3200. Midnight Martini comes out of the strong form race the Herbet Power as well when she was pretty unlucky but still dashed to the lead before it feeling the pinch the the first 3 going past it. Was again unlucky in the admittedly weak Coongy when it was held up around the turn and then had to baulk nearing the finish. Anudjawun just doesn't win (1/18) but you are just waiting for it to explode one day. Has been solid in all of it's runs this prep just without taking the next step and winning. Wouldn't surprise.

Brilliant race with a heap of chances. I'm going to go with Moyenne Corniche though at nice each way odds despite the wide gate. I feel it's brilliant Ebor win and then great run behind Tanby and Shewan really shows it has come here in good order and I will be backing it for the cup before it runs. Gallizani my best roughie.

Race 3 - I just don't think Atlantic Jewel should be running here and I think Kav and Rodd agree. Coolmore pushing it into a Oaks. Without doubt it is the best horse in the race but it just feels like overkill for me. Has carried 58 before and embarrassed her opponents and if she is anywhere near her best she should be winning. Pane in the Glass from the Thompson yard has won some handy races in Sydney. Also finished just a length back from Helmet in the Champagne earlier in the year albeit on a hvy track. Was really disappointing in the Flight without any excuses when it just gave nothing. Has never run further than 1600 but has given a good indication it should run the distance. I feel like Bliss Street should be back in Perth spelling, obviously ran some great races earlier in the spring, but this has been a long prep. She was good behind Torah at Caufield last week though, not sure Torah is really up to the likes of these those.

Dowager Queen is seemingly the obvious danger to Atlantic Jewel when it should of walked in over 2000 a couple weeks back at Caulfield when it was just desperately unlucky. Watching the replay earlier, an ounce of luck in the straight, not discounting the trouble earlier in the race, and it just wins and wins strongly. Not trying to discredit the strong with to Gliding who also runs here but I think it is represented in the market that DQ was very unlucky. One thing on both of these horses sides is that they have ran a strong 2000 and have proven that isn't a problem. The rest all seem quite weak in a race that if Atlantic Jewel is anywhere near her best and gets the 2000 like we think she will, she should just win on brilliance alone. Expecting a strong run from Dowager Queen and hopefully Pane In The Glass runs well who I do like as a horse.

Race 4 - Looking forward to seeing the brilliant colt go down the straight again. Sepoy is obviously a supreme horse with amazing talent. Looked somewhat beatable at Caufield when it almost looked bored up front before McEvoy clipped him back into gear. Masthead was good last time, but this is probably too tough. Hot Snitzel is a good horse, loved it's win at Randwick when it got to the front way to early and was seemingly a sitting duck for Combat Kitty but just kept fighting and held on. Back to the 1200 is suitable for Foxwedge IMO who didn't seem to run out the strong 1400 despite it being behind some very smart types. Obviously was brilliant back in August when hitting the front before Smart Missile just got to it and beating home Helmet over 1200 as well. Nice freshen up since holding off Masthead earlier in the month and think it has been well set and trained for this one. Foxwedge has been the best backed outside of Sepoy. $13's to $10's.

Other than that, the interesting runner in the race is the 3yo General Nediym International Bear Hero who from all reports has been racing brilliantly in Sha Tin. Haven't seen it run unfortunately but won by 5 lengths on debut and has since won 2 more and just beaten in another. Obviously hard to know how good it is but is the wildcard of the race. Satin Shoes is a talented filly but out of it's depth here I think.

Despite me liking Foxwedge and probably having some on it, Sepoy just is superior here. Has won all it's races this prep with a leg in the air and has been down the straight twice and won (in weaker races). Won the Manikato on a slow track on Grand Final Eve and it's just hard to find a fault in it.

Race 5 - Another fantastic race. We see the CC winner Southern Speed go around again, although surely can't get as sweet as a run as it did in the Cup. Drops 400 which I think is OK, has ran some great races over that distance this prep. Was great in the form race of the year as well, the Stock Stakes when it 2nd up. Was unlucky in that race when it was bundled away and unable to run when it was seemingly just jogging in behind them. I wasn't aboard the Rekindled Interest bandwagon in the Cox Plate but after watching the replay for what seems like fifty times, gee it was a great run. Considering the position it was in when getting towards the turn I wouldn't of been surprised to of seen it fall let a lone stick on so well. I feel like Flemington should really suit it but it hasn't been at his best here. It hasn't put a foot wrong this prep, was great first up behind Temple of Doom up the straight, then went to Caufield and flew over 1400 behind Kings Rose, then won at the Valley ahead of Alcopop and WBGY carrying 58.5. It grinded home strongly in the turnbull when nothing made ground and then obviously a fantastic Cox Plate Run. It deserves another win.

Efficient wouldn't surprise. Can turn it on at Flemington as we have all seen and hopefully it won't imitate a wrecking ball here. Like many others, Wall Street's performance in the Cox was great. I didn't think it had a strong 2000 in it but it stuck it out real good. Still have my doubts, not sure why. Midas Touch is already in the MC and needs this race after running (really well) in the Underwood. Had 6 weeks off and would be more confident on backing it if it had to win to make the cup. Not sure how the Williams team will attack this one with Midas Touch. Will be better over further than the 2000 here I think. Mourayan is another Williams owned one in the MC who probably needs further than this. Was really good when winning the Bart Cummings after being well backed. Glass Harmonium's form is fantastic if you can ignore the Cox which was a complete write off. Once it didn't jump it should've stopped then and there because it can't win (ever) if it doesn't jump. We all know how great it was in the Turnbull albeit with a pretty soft lead, once Horse of the Decade (;)) December Draw had a whole lot of trouble getting past it. Gets barrier 2 which it needs to use and if it is too win it has to lead IMO.

Foreteller won good when swooping at Caufield on CC day. Beating home Extra Zero and the unlucky Midnight Martini. There are some much better types in this one but if the pace is on which I think it should be it might look the winner at some stage. Linton has had a spring to forget, after running really encouragingly first and second up over unsuitable distances and seemingly gearing up for a big spring - went to the Turnbull where I really liked it, and pulled up lame and have been unable to get it back to the races since. Who knows how well it's travelling.

And finally the lightly raced Zabeel Mare from the Moody Yard down the bottom Lights of Heaven who has become a bit of a money eater is a chance here. Won it's first 4 earlier in the year which culminated it in beating Absolutley and Southern Speed over 2000 at Morphetville back in March. Had a 20 week spell and returned for what was seemingly going to be a big spring for it. It has since been really disappointing until finally getting back what looked like a bit of form last start in the Caulfield Stakes. It is a weak form race with Avienus (2nd) coming out of it running 2nd last in the Cox and Mighty High coming out of it (4th) and running second last in the CC but it hit the line again after just plugging in the 2 runs previous too that. It's short enough at 12's but Nolen will put in the front half of the field and should get a nice run.

I feel like i'm repeating myself but this is fantastic racing. Plenty of chances off plenty of form lines but i'm going to go with the one i've just spoken about Lights of Heaven. It was just fantastic at the Oaks in Morphetville and hopefully after 5 runs this prep it is fit and with the good run last time hopefully goes well.

Race 6 - Happy to see other trainers aren't avoiding Manawanui, who won in cruise control in the AAMI - which was just a really poor field other than Collar. I'm not sure I want to be diving into the $2.60's, but I think it is the best horse in the race. Few queries for me. It's never ran in a big field before, I can't remember it ever being locked inside horses, and if it can't get to the front, not sure how it would relax 6th or 7th between horses. Induna was very impressive at Geelong in the classic, couldn't believe how easy it did it coming off a thursday maiden at gosford. McEvoy was extremely confident on him watching the replay. Got him out early and took him wide to give him clear galloping room, he knew he had a lot of horse under him, gave all impressions he will run out a strong 2500. Costly Commitment was my early pick for the Derby prior to it's win at Caulfield over 1700. Looking back he didn't beat much that day, and while it's last two runs have been OK grinding home i'm not sure it has the brilliance to win here.

It's a shame about Niagra's gate because it was very unlucky behind Sabrage and Sangster when it was trying to weave through them from midfield and behind held up until the 200 when it finally got clear and bursted home. Will be tough from barrier 18. Zabeelionare has been building toward this and despite being a maiden is the best of the rest for mine. Checked near the start out of the same race before settling near the back and making a good sustained run. It did finish a fair way back but it is crying out for the 2500 and draws a good gate. I don't think it has the capability to go forward, but will get back and make ground.

I'm going around the favourite here. Induna's win at Geelong was just fantastic and with natural improvement I really think it is going to be hard to beat.

Race 7 - A lot of these coming from the Tristicrat at Caulfield back on CC day. I know that More Joyous has rewritten the record books before but I feel the champion mare has it stacked against it this week. It was great when winning last time, but anyone can see, she isn't at her brilliant best at the moment and from barrier 13, - I'm just not sure. Admittedly her third up record is fantastic, but she doesn't have many stats that aren't fantastic. I'm not writing her off but like a lot of others, i'm not keen to dive into $2.50 - poison IMO.

Response IMO loomed as the winner behind MJ and SM last time, last time out MJ had clearly the superior run in the race, and held out Response by a touch over a length. Response doesn't get the weight pull that would be good but gets barrier 3 after drawing 11 in the Tristricat. 1600 metres really suits as well, and without having any info one could guess he has been set for this. I think Dysphonia has been somewhat underrated as a chance here. It was the widest runner in the MJ/SM race and while it didn't have the turn of foot to ever look the winner it's run was full of merit. It didn't finish far back. Sistine Angel has been backed at longer odds after an OK run in the same race. Some will claim it was unlucky but I don't think it had the speed to go through the gap that appeared at the start of the straight. It did stick on though. And was fantastic first up. She does her best work at Flemington and 3rd up it should be fit for this one. I'm sure we all remember its big win over 1600 @ Flem ahead of Brazillian Pulse in the Manifold last year. Will get back and flash.

The 3yo Mosheen is the wildcard here. 8kg weight pull on most of these and if you ignore Atlantic Jewel it was great in the 1000 guineas. Beat everything else home really easily. It's obviously hard to line up the form but along with Celebrity Girl and Bliss Street it battled it out for 3yo Filly Second Best throughout numerous races and it has come out well on top this prep. Unlike Bliss Street I think Mosheen will be ripe for this one. Needs to jump well from 12 to get itself into a forward position and not get caught to wide.

It's a tough race, and at this very early stage I'm going to go around More Joyous in this one, she is just too short, it was a tough win second up but far from convincing. I really like Response, I think 1600 suits, and it's last run was really strong. Will be fitter and hopefully can get a better spot in transit this time around.

Race 8 - This is my favourite race of the day. Temple of Boom has come up very fairly in this one. Down the straight earlier in the month, the speed burst it put on was just sensational. Loves the straight. Loves the wet if it does get wetter, but goes well on dead as well. Sister Madly was obviously really strong last time, looked the winner up until the 100 and kept fighting to the wire. She is definitely more suited over the 1200 where she was won all 3 of her races. Never been down the straight though and only time at flemington was a forget when at the end of it's preparation. She opened to short but getting to a fair price now.

The very lightly raced and very highly talented Mid Summer Music almost looked like winning approaching the 100 behind Sepoy last time before Sepoy kicked back into gear. Moody has done a sensational job with this one, placing it beautifully and it has had some really good wins this year including ahead of Parables who has strong form through Pinker Pinker and More Strawberries last year. Has ran down the straight once when a CERTAINTY beaten, just behind Perturbo who comes through similar strong form lines. Curtana, the other Moody runner who flashed home to grab second ahead of MSM last start is another strong runner here. Looked the winner in the Gilgai before Temple of Boom and a few others went past it.

Stirling Grove with 52kg proves a big chance. Carried 60 at Morphetville and 58.5 when battling it out for second with Karuta Queen behind BC. Won up the straight last spring on MC day, one of many chances. Rarefied has been backed every since markets opened, he was good without being great first up in Sydney. He isn't one that I'm fighting to back.

You can also make a case for the in form Neeson. Also Kav's Catapulted, but I think he had every chance to win at Morphetville and was disappointing.

I'm still undecided between Temple of Boom and Mid Summer Music. Really like both of them. At this stage I'm going to put Mid Summer Music just on top, but could definitely change. This is a great edition of the Sallinger.

Race 9 - Wide open one to finish with. Looks the perfect race for Launay though, who flies second up and likes some give in the ground. Delighted to see one of my favourites from Sydney Thankgodyou'rehere down here, shame about the barrier. Niblick was great when winning first up and if it rains Doubtful Jack won't be easy to hold off. 59 for the Toff worries me. Largo Lad always sucks me in and I will include him in everything.

Tips

Race 1 - Galah. Roughie - Roughie First Course

Race 2 -

1st. Moyenne Corniche
2nd. Green Moon
3rd. Galizani
4th. Midnight Martini

Race 3 -
1st. Atlantic Jewel
2nd. Dowager Queen
3rd. Pane In The Glass
4th. Gliding

Race 4 -

1st. Sepoy
2nd. Foxwedge
3rd. Bear Hero
4th. Hot Snitzel

Race 5 -

1st. Lights of Heaven
2nd. Rekindled Interest
3rd. Efficient (to run it's 1st place!)
4th. Midas Touch

Race 6 -

1st. Induna
2nd. Niagra
3rd. Manawanui
4th. Zabeelionare

Race 7 -

1st. Response
2nd. More Joyous
3rd. Sistine Angel
4th. Dsyphonia

Race 8 -

1st. Mid Summer Music
2nd. Temple of Boom
3rd. Stirling Grove
4th. Sister Madly

Race 9 -

1st. Launay
2nd. Thankgodyou'rehere
3rd. Largo Lad
4th. Niblick

Happy punting :thumbsu:
 
Hard to see him reversing his last start against Highly Recommended not to mention Galah.

I think Galah has a mortgage on the first race but he might be able to steal a placing
 
Didn't know where to post this but I'll try here...

Any know a website where I can find the Derby fields from the late 70s early 80s?

Cheers.
 
Rough_Edges said:
Tips

Race 1 - Galah. Roughie - Roughie First Course

Race 2 -

1st. Moyenne Corniche
2nd. Green Moon
3rd. Galizani
4th. Midnight Martini

Race 3 -
1st. Atlantic Jewel
2nd. Dowager Queen
3rd. Pane In The Glass
4th. Gliding

Race 4 -

1st. Sepoy
2nd. Foxwedge
3rd. Bear Hero
4th. Hot Snitzel

Race 5 -

1st. Lights of Heaven
2nd. Rekindled Interest
3rd. Efficient (to run it's 1st place!)
4th. Midas Touch

Race 6 -

1st. Induna
2nd. Niagra
3rd. Manawanui
4th. Zabeelionare

Race 7 -

1st. Response
2nd. More Joyous
3rd. Sistine Angel
4th. Dsyphonia

Race 8 -

1st. Mid Summer Music
2nd. Temple of Boom
3rd. Stirling Grove
4th. Sister Madly

Race 9 -

1st. Launay
2nd. Thankgodyou'rehere
3rd. Largo Lad
4th. Niblick

Happy punting :thumbsu:
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Have a remarkably similar thought process going into tomorrow as yourself. Hopefully you are on the money:thumbsu:
 
First time doing tips, so dont follow me. I probably wont even follow myself. Have been studying form and videos for the first 3 races, will get onto the last 6 later on today.

Race 1
1. Galah
2. First Course

Roughie: Flying Aquilla could maybe sneak a place $31-1

Cannot see anything getting close to Galah, ran on from last so can win from any position. Should be in a better position for this race and stroll home. I like First course for second gets a 2.5kg swing around against Meethaq and is a good bet for a place.

Race 2

1. Galizani
2. Moyenne Corniche
3. Showcause (Roughie bet - place)
4. Tullamore
5. Green Moon

Was leaning towards Tullamore yesterday as i think the extra 100 will see it beat Green Moon. But than looking at the rest of the field they have done very well in form races. Galizani has got better with each run and ran a superb 2400 time on a dead5 the heavier and slower the track gets the better for Galizani. Moyenne Corniche finsihed off very well in its last to finished just behind Tanby who has gone on to run 2nd in the GC and win the BC, 2nd up after a freshen up can only see it improving the extra 100 again helps loses 1kg, will be hard to beat. Showcause ran a solid 4th in the geelong cup again behind Tanby and Dunaden, the extra 100 can only help got caught wide in that race at the start with a terrible barrier.

Race 3

1. Atlantic Jewell
2. Dowager Queen
3. Bliss Street

I wont be betting on Atlantic Jewell to win this paying too short for a horse with question marks over 2000? and Flemington? I think it will win but wont bet on something that short with doubts. Dowager Queen got a horrid run in its last start, finishing very fast and can get the distance. Bliss street i have for 3rd ran a very good run last start, came from last to finish 2nd. Has been very good in its last 4 starts 1,2,9,2 the 9th it had a problem. Yet to run the 2000 but i think will get the distance seems to finish off races well.

Race 4
1. Sepoy
2. Hot Snitzel
3. Adamantium

Roughie: Adamantium - place

Also Bear Hero will be interesting to watch. Good trial time over 1200. Cant see Sepoy being beaten or Hot Snitzel missing out on a place. Adamantium's form reads well and have put it in for a place.

Race 5
1. Lights Of Heaven
2. Glass Harmonium
3. Southern Speed
4. Rekindled Interest

Probably one of the toughest races to predict. Took alot away from the Turnbull as my major form guide. Was very tempted to go with GH for the win, discounting its last start. Has a barrier where it should be able to push forward early which i think it likes. Likes the flemington track ran a close second to December Draw but ran at 55.5 and will run at 59 in this race which is why i think LOH has built up nicely for this race and should be close to peaking and i like its weight. Yet to race on a slow or heavy track so will be interesting. Southern Speed i reckon the distance is too short for it, doesnt have an ideal barrier but should be around the mark. Efficient continues to improve, is a monty to run top 6 i reckon, wont surprise me if it wins.

Race 6
1. Manawanui
2. Induna
3. Perfect Punch
4. Sangster

Im a big Manawanui fan so no surprise i have it winning although Induna looks real good over the distance. Anyone would be crazy not to have Induna in there top 2 IMO, finished very well last start and eased home winning comfortably. I have Perfect Punch for a place, looks a real stayer loses 2.5kg and i think would have been trained very similar to its stable in Southern Speed and we all saw what that did in the CC.

Race 7
1. Mosheen
2. More Joyous
3. Response
4. Hurtle Myrtle

Mosheen at 49kg drops plenty in weight, likes 1600 and flemington track is still in the upward improvement will be hard to beat. Only More Joyous could beat it, however dont think it will be good enough still improving from its 2nd start back. Response ran 3rd to MJ last start with a big finish could well beat it. Hurtle Myrtle is my roughie chance for a place.
 
I'll preface this by saying I have selected everything with the expectation of an not an overly wet track. If it turns into anything like last year, then put your money on Sacred Choice and go home.

RACE 1

1 GALAH
5 CROSS OF GOLD
2 HIGHLY RECOMMENDED

r2galah.jpg


GALAH's win at Caulfield on Cup day was the defining moment that people twigged he was a very good horse. I thought perhaps he might need more distance that day as he is a fast closing horse, but he won very stylishly coming from the very back and tomorrow he is up to the mile on a big track which just suits perfectly. CROSS OF GOLD is another Redoute's I think will appreciate this extra trip the most. He was battling in the same race but started to warm up again at the line. HIGHLY RECOMMEND is super consistent without being a star so you can expect him to box on into a place. As you can see I think the form from this race a few weeks ago will trump MEETHAQ et al.

RACE 2

4 MOYENNE CORNICHE
1 TULLAMORE
3 GREEN MOON

751031-8882389-317-238.jpg


Loved MOYENNE CORNICHE'S run in the Herbert Power where he gave weight to TANBY and chased well in the straight but probably just wasn't cherry ripe enough. He looks to relax extremely well in his races and like his last win in the Ebor I think he will sit back further in the field (mainly due to the barrier) then come with a long sustained uninterupted run over the top of the Aussie horses here. TULLAMORE is fit and in form, is he good enough to win a race like this finally? GREEN MOON is an unbelievably fit and tough horse who will hit the lead at some point down the straight, the way he races though he will always be susceptible to something getting a cosier run behind coming over the top. Found it really hard to split all three here.

RACE 3

1 ATLANTIC JEWEL
4 DOWAGER QUEEN
5 GLIDING

caulfield-2011-10-12-atlantic-jewel.jpg


Not much needs to be said here, normally when you look at a horses breeding on each side you hope they will take the good parts of each.
This Fastnet Rock filly out of a Zabeel mare has done exactly that, has the speed to win over a sprint distance yet seems to be relishing any extra trip coasting to further and further length wins. In a perfect world this should be her swansong but the gap in run and opposition should have her ready to put in a world class performance again. DOWAGER QUEEN has no excuse on this track this week with traffic issues if she is ridden half decently, but will simply not be good enough - Thursday is more her go. GLIDING finally showed her true colours on Caulfield Cup day, she had ran very good races behind some good sprinter/middle distancers, yet couldn't break through in weak class. She has just been looking for these further trips now it appears and she will run a bottler in the Oaks too.
 
Just had a look at the first two races in detail through forms and video will post the rest throughout day and tomorrow morning, I won't go into detail of every horse as most of you boys know their strengths/weakness etc and what they need to do to win.

Race 1

1.Galah
2.Cross of Gold - PLACE
3.First Coarse - Place

Roughie - St Etienne - Place

Trifecta
Galah,Cross of gold/Galah, Cross of gold/First Coarse,St Etienne,Meethaq

Race 2

1.Tullamore E-W
2.Moyenne Corniche E-W
3.Anudjawun -P
4.Green Moon

Quinella Tullamore,Moyenne Corniche,Anudjawun,Green Moon


 

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Derby day

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