Derby day

[footystar_]

true, I really think his last run was amazing! and Anudjawun will be in it to the line

 

[Matty_G]

Great write-up Rough Edges

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Is everyone getting worried they've got practically the same tips? I hate when I see loads of punters with the same thoughts as me, never seems to end well.

But I'm a pessimist, so hopefully bookies are feeling the pinch come tomorrow.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Is everyone getting worried they've got practically the same tips? I hate when I see loads of punters with the same thoughts as me, never seems to end well.

But I'm a pessimist, so hopefully bookies are feeling the pinch come tomorrow.

I dont think more joyous will win. Hope that helps.

 

[Lockyer24]

RACE 4

8 ZAMORAR
1 SEPOY
4 FOXWEDGE

ZAMORAR really reminds me of KING PULSE before he had his mishap - i.e a very smart, lightly raced type who could very well run a bottler here. (KP ran 2nd in the Coolmore in just his 3rd start, being pipped by HEADWAY)
The obvious stumbling block is some horse called SEPOY though - however I have a couple of reasons why I'm going for some value here. SEPOYs win in the Manikato was brilliant, with 52kg he ran 1m.11s.08. The same night with 55kg on his back ZAMORAR ran the same distance and track with 1m.11s.81, still in his first prep. Times aren't everything, but I believe he can measure up - he nearly knocked over HALLOWELLE BELLE on debut.
He hasn't raced since (i.e been looked after for this). SEPOYs last win was by 1.25L to CURTANA, and it wasn't as authoritative as you would like - is he tiring a little after a big 2 year old season? Then at trackwork the other day, albeit not at full throttle SEPOY worked quietly with DYSPHONIA without asserting too much authority finishing neck and neck. Lastly the Flemington straight can be tricky if you get stuck behind a horse - and swoopers are always a danger of finishing over the top if the sprint goes on too far from home. Just some food for thought - he is obviously $1.28 for a reason but he is not Black Caviar, this horse will eventually get beat again I believe. FOXWEDGE brings down class form from Sydney and again has been freshened for this - his work has been great too by all reports.

RACE 5

3 MIDAS TOUCH
12 REKINDLED INTEREST
13 SOUTHERN SPEED

MIDAS TOUCH is very much a forgotten horse of this Spring, yet hasn't been seen for a few weeks as Lloyd tunes him up for the Cup, his main goal. At the peak of Spring this race I believe you really need to start looking at more staying types despite the middle distance of 2000m, as it really is just a tune up race/or consolation prize for the Cox Platers.
He comes into this with solid form and still with his best ahead of ghim. Do others?
REKINDLED INTEREST great run last time again, but as I said last week you can't trust it to win more than 1 in a row.
SOUTHERN SPEED has another big run in her, and I believe she will be ridden a bit quieter from a wider gate. The step back in trip Im not sure about however as she seems to be improving with step up in distance this prep where last prep I thought it was the opposite.

RACE 6

1 MANAWANUI
8 NIAGARA
5 SANGSTER

The fav MANAWANUI comes into this race with many people mentioning WHOBEGOTYOU a few years ago as the classiest horse not being able to beat a pure stayer. MANAWANUI is a much more versatile horse though even if he may need to make a big run from the tail of the field this week.
His win last week was good enough without providing conclusive proof he will run the trip, personally I think burn out is his only issue - he has been battling HELMET and co for quite a while now. He is at a backable price so you just have to trust him. Certainly no other horse has run well enough in my view to be any shorter than $7.
NIAGARA was a bit unlucky last start but his final 100m was sensational I thought and gave me the best indication of the others he will run this trip. SANGSTER is one I really am considering a saver on at his odds of $12 - I am a big wrap for this horse and last start would have tuned him up very nicely for his Grand Final.

 

[The_Doctor]

I really like Moyenne Corniche, the more rain that comes the better for him even though he is fine on a good track he will improve lengths if the track is soft

 

[stuziman]

I really like Moyenne Corniche, the more rain that comes the better for him even though he is fine on a good track he will improve lengths if the track is soft

I'm all over him! IAS special $25 down at 9 would give you $325 return if it gets up.

 

[Lockyer24]

RACE 7

1 MORE JOYOUS
4 RESPONSE
11 GOON SERPENT

MORE JOYOUS still has a length up her sleeve against these mares, and she has clearly looked to be on much more of a slow burning prep this time in rather than asserting her dominance early over the shorter trips. Both RESPONSE AND in particular GOON SERPENT ran rippers behind her last start - the latter I have been waiting to show something since a great win in Adelaide during their carnival over a few good ones.

RACE 8

3 NEESON
2 TEMPLE OF BOOM
6 SISTER MADLY

NEESON has the same look to me as ALL SILENT who came down a few years ago and won on Derby Day and then again the next week. He appreciates a bit of softer ground which we are likely to get and last start gave me the impression he might be ready to start a real nice streak. Has had a short let up to keep him fresh for this carnival. TEMPLE OF BOOM is a safe choice to run a great race again down the straight. SISTER MADLY could win easily or drop out, just be wary of her past.

RACE 9

12 NIBLICK
4 WOORIM
2 TOORAK TOFF

NIBLICK really looks like taking a step forward now they have seemingly got him to settle better in his races. He didn't beat much last start but his run was exactly what you want at this track and he is lightly weighted against a lot of decent types but who are out of form. WOORIM will get in the money finally after some frustrating races lately, and LAUNAY with even luck will place surely.
TORIO'S QUEST, THANKGODYOUREHERE and BUDRIQUEZ I rate highly and will go in my quaddie but jeez a few of them are struggling, their best would be well up to this though.

Good luck to everyone on here, looking forward to reading everyones opinions and pushes - hopefully we can all get a collect. I also hope you like my pretty pictures

 

[Ricketts]

Is everyone getting worried they've got practically the same tips? I hate when I see loads of punters with the same thoughts as me, never seems to end well.

I'm all over Meethaq and Dowager Queen if that helps.

Also opposing Manawanui, but the short run to the first turn is a real pain for my confidence on Niagara and his barrier.

 

[Ricketts]

I also hope you like my pretty pictures

How long did it take you to find that one of Midas Touch?

 

[Lockyer24]

How long did it take you to find that one of Midas Touch?

More time than doing the form itself

 

[PieBeast]

r1 - 4 Meethaq
r2 - 4 Moyenne Corniche
r5 - 12 Rekindled Interest (quinella with Midas Touch)
r6 - 3 Collar and 13 Zabeelionaire E/W
r7 - 4 Response
r8 - 5 Phelan Ready E/W
r9 - 10 Amaethon

Quaddie
1,3,7,10,13/1,2,4,8,16/2,3,5,6,10/ 3,5,10,12 35%

Good luck everyone.

 

[Special Agent Utah]

Race 2- Green Moon
Race 3- Atlantic Jewell
Race 8- Temple of Boom
Race 9- Torio Quest
Race 1- Galah, First Coarse Quinella

 

[Beauy420]

Just starting to hit my stride, after finally finishing form after 2 hours, heres what i come up with:

Rc1 Meethaq
Rc2 Green Moon
Rc3 Gliding (PLACE) possible Quinella with AJ
Rc4 Adamantium (PLACE) Possible Quinella with Sepoy
Rc5 Box Tri: Glass Harmonium, Rekindled Interest, Lights Of Heaven
Rc6 Induna, Niagra
Rc7 More Joyous
Rc8 Temple Of Boom
Rc9 Niblick

EDIT: Will Add Quaddie Later

 

[uptheblues]

Anyone know why fixed odds betting on the Lexus is currently suspended?

 

[footystar_]

Race 3

Atlantic Jewel - WIN *
Gliding 2nd

Trifecta

Altantic Jewel/Gliding/Dowager Queen,Rahveel

Race 4
Sepoy - Win
Bear Hero - Place
Zamozar - Place
Unique Quality - Place

First 4
Sepoy/Bear Hero,Zamozar/Bear Hero,Zamozar,Unique Quality,Foxwedge/Bear Hero,Zamozar,Unique Quality,Foxwedge

 

[Beauy420]

Tullamore Scratched for Lexus
Yosei out aswell

 

[Beauy420]

With TAB guranteeing a 4 Million pool for the quaddie, one would still think the big 6 will return higher divs with AJ & Sepoy short favourites? Assuming they win.

 

[footystar_]

Tullamore Scratched for Lexus
Yosei out aswell

?? Any news on why? Better result for Moyenne Corniche

 

[Beauy420]

?? Any news on why? Better result for Moyenne Corniche

Not too sure, still racing in the cup, im guessing just to freshen up for that.

 

[footystar_]

Not too sure, still racing in the cup, im guessing just to freshen up for that.

One would only think, I have no idea why they would have gone this far with tomorrow though rather then earlier in the week

 

[Beauy420]

One would only think, I have no idea why they would have gone this far with tomorrow though rather then earlier in the week

Im just guessing here but it must be showing signs of slowing, it has alot of miles in the legs, i was getting very worried about how much racing its been doing, right thing to do IMO. They just must of been hoping it would pull up okay.

 

[Jezza Jenkins]

Put a fiver on Midnight Martini winning the Lexus and then winning the Melb Cup a la Shocking a few years ago. Same trainer, same sire and a very similar lead up...

It's very rough but there seems to be some merit there

 

[ThePezDispenser]

Rain looks like it will pelt down tonight then ease up around 6-7 tomorrow morning.

With the Flemo drainage we could be looking at dead 5 at worst.

Here it is:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/melbourne/flemington/detailed-forecast

 

[Frankie23]

Put 10 each way on Showcause for the Melb Cup, expecting it to put in a huge show tomorrow.

4th in the Geelong Cup behind Dunaden, Tanby and Bauer is good form in my mind, he relishes softer ground and is crying out for 3200m