Current Disappearance of 3yo William Tyrrell * The foster mother has been recommended for charges of pervert the course of justice & interfere with a corpse

[Kurve]

Criminal charges the former foster parents currently face as at 15 April 2022 include:

• Apprehended Violence Orders on both (AVOs)
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster mother *Not Guilty
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster father *Not Guilty
• 2 x charges of assault against a child on former foster mother *Guilty
• 1 x charge of assault against a child on former foster father
• Stalking &/or Intimidation on both
• Dummy bidding real estate fraud *Guilty

TIMELINE

Where's William Tyrrell? - The Ch 10 podcast (under Coroner's subpoena)

Operation Arkstone

 

[Angry Red Bull]

You keep talking about possibilities. Possibilities are not proof.
In Australia, one is innocent until proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt.
Without a body, murder weapon, or DNA there is very little proof.
The photographs provide 'proof' William was alive at 9:37. Beyond reasonable doubt? Well, yes, if one considers how 'reasonable' it would be for these photographs to be faked without detection.
Even if the photos were proven to be faked, it still doesn't 'prove' anything. All it does is raise further possibilities.
The FF has proof, beyond reasonable doubt that he was in Lakewood from around 9am to around 10:20am.
Almost everything else we have is pure conjecture which would not stand up to scrutiny in a court.
In order to prove a case beyond reasonable doubt, prosecution needs to demonstrate the exact means by which the crime was committed, by whom, how, and when. They can't have an each-way bet, (" We don't exactly know how or when she disposed of the body, but she lied about a few things so it must be her!" ... just won't fly in court, sorry.)

Nowhere did I say I have adequate evidential proof to support a theory about what happened. Neither do you OR police. That's why the case is unsolved. So we are ALL dealing with possibilities. Some more persuasive than others. You say that FF being at a Lakewood between 9 and 10.20 is proof as though I dispute that when I never have. It is proven fact and never disputed by me.. Neither do those facts influence what might have happened as a possibility in the period prior to say 8.30. You say that police have had the camera 9 years and intimate that is proof that the 9.37 time is proven. That's just wrong because you thinking it must, isn't proof at all absent inside knowledge from police which we don't have

Then you want to proceed to diminish my possibility of theory based on my analysis by saying because I don't currently have the proof to a standard of reasonable doubt it is somehow nonsensical on my part to even try to decipher with reasoned analysis. I understand the concept of reasonable doubt very clearly and don't need an education. I've spent 40 years doing statutory interpretation of the all forms of revenue law so it is relatively easy to adapt to criminal.

They need to prove to a standard of beyond reasonable doubt and can't have a bet each way. Did I say they could or that I misconstrued the standard? No I didn't.
I'm increasingly coming to the position that I seriously doubt that they have much at all other than their own theory. That's why they are using media announcement of DPP referral and multiple charges to build pressure in the hope they can cause a fracture and gather evidence or admission. Lonergan admitting they don't know is persuasive and now influences choices

As regards your theory you say there was ample time from 9.37 to 10.50 to do what was required. With respect, highly unlikely. From 10.25 everyone was running around searching so you can essentially exclude that time entirely. Unless you happen to think they would carry a body around in view of searchers.That leaves you from 9.37 to 10.25 and to resolve the problem of time you assume that the incident happened closer to 9.37 than not. That flies entirely in the face of probability theory which suggests every minute between 9.37 and 10.25 has equal probability of being THE minute where it actually did. If you understand hypothesis testing standard deviation from mean median and mean definitions etc you will realize that the mid point of which is 10.01 splits in two with that after that time have equal chance as that before. So in probability terms if you genuinely want to determine how much time they had on that probability analysis it was 24 minutes. if you want to deviate from that you can of course can but in probability terms that is the equation any thing different is a purposefully biased judgement to suit a theory...yours, the police whoever. .it's not enough time and before you seek to shutdown this as well.....this is an area of my degree course material and understanding, So don't because you'd be wrong. But that didn't bother you you simply resolve it MUST then have happened closer to 9.37 to bolster support to that theory. That's possible of course but as I said each minute in that 48 min spread has equal chance so assuming it happened in your preferred time is biased thinking when the events (the photo) and (missing/ accident) are unrelated events happening randomly. You can take it further and identify what time you'd need say 35 min and ascertain a probability you would have had at least that on the even spread. The police wouldn't be doing that of course they'd probably fall into the same trap as you saying it must have occurred close to 9.37 without determining the consequent adjustment to probability. Extending the example you can calculate that if 35 mins is needed the probability you would get that within the 48 min even spread is exactly 27%. Not very promising odds are they. That being the case you can probably conclude that if they have no evidence to tie FM to a WT body at cnr Cob & Co and Batar cr Rd that the probability of it happening with FM involvement is 27% (unless you feel 35 min is unreasonable excessive to need ).or you allow contemplation with evidence it occurred in a DIFFERENT timeline eg 7.39 which is one of MANY reasons I started examining that timeline. Me.....based on human nature, determining death etc I think closer to the full 48 was needed which following the theory is less than 2% chance..

You can believe what you want as can I. Neither you or I are right or wrong but you seem to constantly phrase it as though everything not coming from your mouth must be wrong.. your theory is no better than anyone else. Sorry but it's not. in fact if you want to be precise the current behaviour and reasoned motives of police are creating greater probability Fosters weren't involved at all and it was an abduction. Why? Because that 24 minutes would be dedicated to taking the child to car and driving off and nothing more. Less time and more probability on a time limit basis. In that case probably 7 min or less was needed.

So using my analysis and the knowledge that "we don't know what happened" and probability theory you can determine probabilities for time needed in that spread. I say at least 48min at 2% chance. At 35 min a 27% chance and adjusting at intervals on sliding scale in between. So pick a needed min in aggregate and I'll then tell you %. If you only need 7 min from that 48 say because it was an abduction then the probability you would get that in the 48 min window is 86%

As you can see I believe the prospect is remote. You can be right still as can they of course. Long shots happen. What has to be factored in relation to a fatal head injury are:

• dealing with emotional turmoil
• identifying clearly is death v unconscious
• deciding tampering with corpse was preferred
• removing to car
• driving Batar Cr Rd 3 min
• place body hidden
• return to house 3 min
• second visit to throw something????

Of someone you were adopting and with unilateral decision absent the FF.

 

[BFew]

my analysis

Just to sum up the likely wide range of offline reactions to your analysis.

 

[Longmembrey]

Nowhere did I say I have adequate evidential proof to support a theory about what happened. Neither do you OR police. That's why the case is unsolved. So we are ALL dealing with possibilities. Some more persuasive than others. You say that FF being at a Lakewood between 9 and 10.20 is proof as though I dispute that when I never have. It is proven fact and never disputed by me.. Neither do those facts influence what might have happened as a possibility in the period prior to say 8.30. You say that police have had the camera 9 years and intimate that is proof that the 9.37 time is proven. That's just wrong because you thinking it must, isn't proof at all absent inside knowledge from police which we don't have

Then you want to proceed to diminish my possibility of theory based on my analysis by saying because I don't currently have the proof to a standard of reasonable doubt it is somehow nonsensical on my part to even try to decipher with reasoned analysis. I understand the concept of reasonable doubt very clearly and don't need an education. I've spent 40 years doing statutory interpretation of the all forms of revenue law so it is relatively easy to adapt to criminal.

They need to prove to a standard of beyond reasonable doubt and can't have a bet each way. Did I say they could or that I misconstrued the standard? No I didn't. I'm increasingly coming to the position that I seriously doubt that they have much at all other than their own theory. That's why they are using media announcement of DPP referral and multiple charges to build pressure in the hope they can cause a fracture and gather evidence or admission. Lonergan admitting they don't know is persuasive and now influences choices

As regards your theory you say there was ample time from 9.37 to 10.50 to do what was required. With respect, highly unlikely. From 10.25 everyone was running around searching so you can essentially exclude that time entirely. Unless you happen to think they would carry a body around in view of searchers.That leaves you from 9.37 to 10.25 and to resolve the problem of time you assume that the incident happened closer to 9.37 than not. That flies entirely in the face of probability theory which suggests every minute between 9.37 and 10.25 has equal probability of being THE minute where it actually did. If you understand hypothesis testing standard deviation from mean median and mean definitions etc you will realize that the mid point of which is 10.01 splits in two with that after that time have equal chance as that before. So in probability terms if you genuinely want to determine how much time they had on that probability analysis it was 24 minutes. if you want to deviate from that you can of course can but in probability terms that is the equation any thing different is a purposefully biased judgement to suit a theory...yours, the police whoever. .it's not enough time and before you seek to shutdown this as well.....this is an area of my degree course material and understanding, So don't because you'd be wrong. But that didn't bother you you simply resolve it MUST then have happened closer to 9.37 to bolster support to that theory. That's possible of course but as I said each minute in that 48 min spread has equal chance so assuming it happened in your preferred time is biased thinking when the events (the photo) and (missing) are unrelated events happening randomly. You can take it further and identify what time you'd need say 35 min and ascertain a probability you would have had at least that on the even spread. The police wouldn't be doing that of course they'd probably fall into the same trap as you saying it must have occurred close to 9.37 without determining the consequent adjustment to probability. Extending the example you can calculate that if 35 mins is needed the probability you would get that within the 48 min even spread is exactly 27%. Not very promising odds are they. That being the case you can probably conclude that if they have no evidence to tie FM to a WT body at cnr Cob & Co and Batar cr Rd that the probability of it happening with FM involvement is 27% (unless you feel 35 min is unreasonable excessive to need ). Me.....based on human nature, determining death etc I think closer to the full 48 was needed which following the theory is less than 2% chance..

You can believe what you want as can I. Neither you or I are right or wrong but you seem to constantly phrase it as though everything not coming from your mouth must be wrong.. your theory is no better than anyone else. Sorry but it's not. in fact if you want to be precise the current behaviour and reasoned motives of police are creating greater probability Fosters weren't involved at all and it was an abduction. Why? Because that 24 minutes would be dedicated to taking the child to car and driving off and nothing more. Less time and more probability on a time limit basis. In that case probably 7 min or less was needed.

So using my analysis and the knowledge that "we don't know what happened" and probability theory you can determine probabilities for time needed in that spread. I say at least 48min at 2% chance. At 35 min a 27% chance and adjusting at intervals on sliding scale in between. So pick a time.list it's needs and aggregate ot then I'll tell you %.

As you can see I believe the prospect is remote. You can be right still as can they of course. Long shots happen. What has to be factored in relation to a fatal head injury are:

• dealing with emotional turmoil
• identifying clearly is death v unconscious
• deciding tampering with corpse was preferred
• removing to car
• driving Batar Cr Rd 3 min
• place body hidden
• return to house 3 min
• second visit to throw something????

Of someone you were adopting and with unilateral decision absent the FF.

Crikey

 

[OnTheRocks]

Just to sum up the likely wide range of offline reactions to your analysis.

Can you break down each of the 3 gifs into % chance
Thx

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Can you break down each of the 3 gifs into % chance
Thx

Sure

It was definitely epic being defined as heroic or grand. Something can be grand..big, complex etc without having proper direction (see the second category) Little chance it wasn't .....so.........98%
I only reduce by 2% because for a very small minority being verbose is natural for them also so they wouldn't consider it epic


"No idea what you're talking about" Historical statistical analysis of my personal communications make clear repeated examples of me failing to communicate effectively to Impart clear understanding of my message.. My wife constantly says..."you caused that because you didn't communicate properly"

..so I'm reluctantly saying 100%.
And also says..." Don't come on with that mumbo jumbo crap" when I try to explain ...so yes 100%

'Shite' is the most difficult because by nature it requires feedback from the totality of the audience and we don't yet have adequate sample size to make meaningful conclusions in that regard. Extrapolating though you would probably say beyond 90%

 

[stormbird]

The 04 December hearing for FF and FM's assault/intimidation charges is now listed on the NSW Online Registry, following on from the start of their hearing in September 2023:

Sydney Morning Herald, 08 Sep 2023

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/magistrate-rejects-attempt-by-tyrrell-foster-mother-to-have-charges-thrown-out-20230908-p5e366.html

Also listed for 04 Dec is the trial in Port Macquarie District Court for Derek Nichols' alleged assault against a vulnerable person - which has nothing to do with William's case, but for me, my opinion only, DN continues to be a potential person of interest. I haven't yet seen any reports about how he was eliminated.

 

[31550]

The 04 December hearing for FF and FM's assault/intimidation charges is now listed on the NSW Online Registry, following on from the start of their hearing in September 2023:

Sydney Morning Herald, 08 Sep 2023

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/magistrate-rejects-attempt-by-tyrrell-foster-mother-to-have-charges-thrown-out-20230908-p5e366.html

Also listed for 04 Dec is the trial in Port Macquarie District Court for Derek Nichols' alleged assault against a vulnerable person - which has nothing to do with William's case, but for me, my opinion only, DN continues to be a potential person of interest. I haven't yet seen any reports about how he was eliminated.

Yet news.com.au reported on October 23 that DN was no longer a person of interest in the William Tyrrell case.

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/courts-law/extyrrell-suspect-allegedly-groomed-and-sexually-touched-man-as-he-slept/news-story/9d61edb32aa1f2f697d20a91d1ebe323

 

[stormbird]

Yet news.com.au reported on October 23 that DN was no longer a person of interest in the William Tyrrell case.

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/courts-law/extyrrell-suspect-allegedly-groomed-and-sexually-touched-man-as-he-slept/news-story/9d61edb32aa1f2f697d20a91d1ebe323

Repeating myself: "...for me, my opinion only, DN continues to be a potential person of interest. I haven't yet seen any reports about how he was eliminated".

 

[BFew]

Can you break down each of the 3 gifs into % chance
Thx

I broke the 1st of them and dislocated my shoulder in the process.

 

[shorsky]

But that would mean you intended to kill the child.

Why bother changing the time of the camera by half an hour or so?

When a child goes missing, there is rarely a photo that is taken the very day they went missing, let alone within an hour or two of going missing.

So not sure why a murderer would bother with a proof of life photo let alone fudge the time by half an hour.

You can be extremely tech savvy but there’s always a risk the police have better technology who would determine you messed with the time, and then you are right in the line of suspicion. Doesn’t seem worth the risk.

I can’t even grasp the concept of the many crimes that people commit - neither the mindset required nor for that matter how careless the perpetrators can be in their execution of, despite their supposed ‘brilliant’ cover-ups! Mostly they get caught eventually. … and I say that without any clarity of Guilt on anyone’s part in William’s disappearance. Red Flags, I do agree, but are they ‘real’. People are People and none of us follow a written manual on behaviour, because we are individual.

Back stepping to the situation where people reach out to ’foster’ / provide care & nurturing for children in need - it is in its purist form, a wonderful & selfless act.

That changes when it becomes ‘self indulgent’ - examples as we’ve had reported e.g. Tiahleigh Palmer. Appalling on so many levels & it makes one question the whole ‘governance’ or rather, lack of. I know of cases where kids are taken in as a $$ benefit, not mistreated though. Also noting that Financial needs are not the only Needs that people may seek to fulfil.

This awful situation of William’s disappearance was so poorly handled from the very start, Policing 101 forsaken for small town friendships & mindsets - which could in itself could be seen as ‘planning’.

The rumour mill / media has had a field day with comments & thats pretty much all we have to go on. I don’t envy the investigation team in trying to find that needle in the haystack. (I acknowledge that we’ve only seen / heard partial interviews, statements etc. and I think theRe’s more, surely )

Many of you clever people have spent time analysing the time taken re those published photos of William on the deck:
* handy to have them
* time accounted for
* showed what he was wearing
* FM, FGM, W & L all accounted for

Red Flags for me:
* FM was adamant in her 000 call that there were no strange occurrences / people / cars around ( i‘m not concerned about lack of knowledge of cross street name)
* To me, she was very calm on that call - but personalities differ so I won’t judge on that
* Disparity in reports of where FF was on arrival of first Police responder
* I wouldn’t have been capable of cooking dinner - FGM & other child must be fed - I’d have take away ( even tho I never do) but as a Grandmother I wouldn’t have an appetite either, so maybe the cooking was simple beans on toast! Personalities differ.
* I definitely wouldn’t have been capable of (safely) driving to the Airport
** I can’t believe that the Police allowed her to go off unsupervised - someone could have driven her or a car could have been arranged for the collection.
What car did she take
Who went with her - I can’t recall
Was there a ‘bug’ in the car at that point (doubt it)

* Suddenly there’s strange cars across the road ??
* There’s a dodgy looking person driving by
An ‘abduction theory’ is perpetuated - bio parents quizzed which threw dirt their way.
(These appear to be people who are trying desperately to break a mould. They love their kids & want to raise them as a family, but need help & support to rise above all their past demons. Did they get that support ? )
The hot bed of ‘relocated’ pedophiles & misfits in the area were investigated & their activities outed
Those with axes to grind got an ear & innocent people had their lives ruined by the actions of inept (and possibly self -serving) individuals in positions of power, either directly or indirectly.

* Re FGM walk-through - I thought she handled it well, albeit a couple of eyebrow raisers. I think it was done after the others left & she was finally back to her home. (IMO it was a mess & I was stunned to see that she was left that to deal with.)
Surely it was quite traumatic for her. .. how old ?
She’s been a pillar of the local society & now she’s caught up in a police investigation over the disappearance of her daughter‘s Foster Child !
We have no knowledge of how FGM felt about that situation.
We’ve heard she & FM had a difficult relationship
We‘re told this is her daughter & family’s first trip back in some months - since ‘FGF’ passed (yep, people are different)
We’re told FM had brothers who lived in the area - seriously! Where‘s the record of her call to them in this crises ? Were they in the search party ? Were they interviewed by Police ?

** comments have been raised by the sudden change of plans by Fosters - and I guess I can understand, being used to long drives to visit family.
Scenario - FF suddenly has a free afternoon (cancelled client meetings or whatever)
- calls FM & suggests they leave that afternoon, which would potentially give them a peaceful wake-up & a full day there.
- FM checks if they can change the Cat Care booking, & starts to throw things in suit cases. ( did they pack the Bikes or were they already at FGM’s
- They collect the kids from day care & head off
- I’m surprised they didn’t check with FG re earlier arrival plans, but again, people are differen.

FGM didn’t know who slept where & I think that’s understandable - they arrived late & I’m sure she just wanted to go to bed herself, no need to supervise their whereabouts.
I was confused by the bedrooms, the colours & number of pillows on the beds .
FGM was quite talkative about her early morning discussions with FF, and his need to get to the Pharmacy & to make a business call.
I don’t recall her mentioning the children fighting over toys - maybe that’s just a given for her
She said the 3 of them, corrected it to the 4 of them - sat down to breakfast ( maybe FGM got breakfast & it was FM who joined later)
She cleaned up after breakfast before joining FM, L & William on the deck.

And then it all turned upside down !!

I abhor what L has been through & i pray that it’s not just fed the roundabout!

At the same time, as someone who’s lost a child, my heart breaks for all those who desperately need answers. I pray that those answers are forthcoming, in one way or another.

I also hope that William brings Change. As a society, we must do better for our vulnerable, and I‘d like to see that mandated in William’s Name.


Sorry - obviously no answers here

 

[31550]

I can’t even grasp the concept of the many crimes that people commit - neither the mindset required nor for that matter how careless the perpetrators can be in their execution of, despite their supposed ‘brilliant’ cover-ups! Mostly they get caught eventually. … and I say that without any clarity of Guilt on anyone’s part in William’s disappearance. Red Flags, I do agree, but are they ‘real’. People are People and none of us follow a written manual on behaviour, because we are individual.

Back stepping to the situation where people reach out to ’foster’ / provide care & nurturing for children in need - it is in its purist form, a wonderful & selfless act.

That changes when it becomes ‘self indulgent’ - examples as we’ve had reported e.g. Tiahleigh Palmer. Appalling on so many levels & it makes one question the whole ‘governance’ or rather, lack of. I know of cases where kids are taken in as a $$ benefit, not mistreated though. Also noting that Financial needs are not the only Needs that people may seek to fulfil.

This awful situation of William’s disappearance was so poorly handled from the very start, Policing 101 forsaken for small town friendships & mindsets - which could in itself could be seen as ‘planning’.

The rumour mill / media has had a field day with comments & thats pretty much all we have to go on. I don’t envy the investigation team in trying to find that needle in the haystack. (I acknowledge that we’ve only seen / heard partial interviews, statements etc. and I think theRe’s more, surely )

Many of you clever people have spent time analysing the time taken re those published photos of William on the deck:
* handy to have them
* time accounted for
* showed what he was wearing
* FM, FGM, W & L all accounted for

Red Flags for me:
* FM was adamant in her 000 call that there were no strange occurrences / people / cars around ( i‘m not concerned about lack of knowledge of cross street name)
* To me, she was very calm on that call - but personalities differ so I won’t judge on that
* Disparity in reports of where FF was on arrival of first Police responder
* I wouldn’t have been capable of cooking dinner - FGM & other child must be fed - I’d have take away ( even tho I never do) but as a Grandmother I wouldn’t have an appetite either, so maybe the cooking was simple beans on toast! Personalities differ.
* I definitely wouldn’t have been capable of (safely) driving to the Airport
** I can’t believe that the Police allowed her to go off unsupervised - someone could have driven her or a car could have been arranged for the collection.
What car did she take
Who went with her - I can’t recall
Was there a ‘bug’ in the car at that point (doubt it)

* Suddenly there’s strange cars across the road ??
* There’s a dodgy looking person driving by
An ‘abduction theory’ is perpetuated - bio parents quizzed which threw dirt their way.
(These appear to be people who are trying desperately to break a mould. They love their kids & want to raise them as a family, but need help & support to rise above all their past demons. Did they get that support ? )
The hot bed of ‘relocated’ pedophiles & misfits in the area were investigated & their activities outed
Those with axes to grind got an ear & innocent people had their lives ruined by the actions of inept (and possibly self -serving) individuals in positions of power, either directly or indirectly.

* Re FGM walk-through - I thought she handled it well, albeit a couple of eyebrow raisers. I think it was done after the others left & she was finally back to her home. (IMO it was a mess & I was stunned to see that she was left that to deal with.)
Surely it was quite traumatic for her. .. how old ?
She’s been a pillar of the local society & now she’s caught up in a police investigation over the disappearance of her daughter‘s Foster Child !
We have no knowledge of how FGM felt about that situation.
We’ve heard she & FM had a difficult relationship
We‘re told this is her daughter & family’s first trip back in some months - since ‘FGF’ passed (yep, people are different)
We’re told FM had brothers who lived in the area - seriously! Where‘s the record of her call to them in this crises ? Were they in the search party ? Were they interviewed by Police ?

** comments have been raised by the sudden change of plans by Fosters - and I guess I can understand, being used to long drives to visit family.
Scenario - FF suddenly has a free afternoon (cancelled client meetings or whatever)
- calls FM & suggests they leave that afternoon, which would potentially give them a peaceful wake-up & a full day there.
- FM checks if they can change the Cat Care booking, & starts to throw things in suit cases. ( did they pack the Bikes or were they already at FGM’s
- They collect the kids from day care & head off
- I’m surprised they didn’t check with FG re earlier arrival plans, but again, people are differen.

FGM didn’t know who slept where & I think that’s understandable - they arrived late & I’m sure she just wanted to go to bed herself, no need to supervise their whereabouts.
I was confused by the bedrooms, the colours & number of pillows on the beds .
FGM was quite talkative about her early morning discussions with FF, and his need to get to the Pharmacy & to make a business call.
I don’t recall her mentioning the children fighting over toys - maybe that’s just a given for her
She said the 3 of them, corrected it to the 4 of them - sat down to breakfast ( maybe FGM got breakfast & it was FM who joined later)
She cleaned up after breakfast before joining FM, L & William on the deck.

And then it all turned upside down !!

I abhor what L has been through & i pray that it’s not just fed the roundabout!

At the same time, as someone who’s lost a child, my heart breaks for all those who desperately need answers. I pray that those answers are forthcoming, in one way or another.

I also hope that William brings Change. As a society, we must do better for our vulnerable, and I‘d like to see that mandated in William’s Name.


Sorry - obviously no answers here

Thanks for your post, and your observations are very relevant in my opinion. I have similar concerns.

Were they motivated to be foster parents for genuine altruistic reasons, or to satisfy their own narcissism and egos?

How much was the investigation hampered by their foster parent status and privacy provisions?

Why was so much time and effort put into investigating Spedding when he had a solid alibi which simply needed to be verified?

Why was (seemingly) so little effort put into other avenues of investigation early on?

Why did we not hear about the 'two cars' (or 3 cars?) until a year after the event? Wouldn't police need public help in identifying these cars early on?

The 000 call: No cars. No answer to the question "Was he wearing shoes?" Detailed description of an identifying mark on the top of his skull, but he was wearing a Spiderman Suit! How many 3YOs were wandering Kendall in a Spiderman suit? How long was he gone? 5 minutes or 20 minutes or over an hour if the call was at 10:55?

The FM drive in FGM car. When exactly did this happen? Why? How could he have gotten as far as the riding school? When was this drive actually disclosed to police?

Why was the FGM car not examined until a week after the event? How extensive was this examination? Did dogs sniff the car on the day of the disappearance and was any scent detected?

Why the unusual sleeping arrangements? Why did the FM and FF not sleep in the same bed? Were they in disagreement about something? William or his sister could have slept on the couch or something if they didn't want the kids in the same room.

FGM walkthrough: Why was FGM unaware of phone calls in the morning, and why was it necessary for her to call GO in the afternoon? He was coming the next Tuesday. How did she know William would not be found by then? And how did GO 'know what was happening' early that afternoon? Surely the details had not been released to the extent that GO would know it involved FGM?

Why was FF allowed to leave the house on his own early the following morning? No overnight police watch on the house?

Was there ever a follow-up on the Spiderman suit spotted on a fence by a cyclist in Kew (in Wendy Hudson's notes)?

 

[stormbird]

Thanks for your post, and your observations are very relevant in my opinion. I have similar concerns.

Were they motivated to be foster parents for genuine altruistic reasons, or to satisfy their own narcissism and egos?

How much was the investigation hampered by their foster parent status and privacy provisions?

Why was so much time and effort put into investigating Spedding when he had a solid alibi which simply needed to be verified?

Why was (seemingly) so little effort put into other avenues of investigation early on?

Why did we not hear about the 'two cars' (or 3 cars?) until a year after the event? Wouldn't police need public help in identifying these cars early on?

The 000 call: No cars. No answer to the question "Was he wearing shoes?" Detailed description of an identifying mark on the top of his skull, but he was wearing a Spiderman Suit! How many 3YOs were wandering Kendall in a Spiderman suit? How long was he gone? 5 minutes or 20 minutes or over an hour if the call was at 10:55?

The FM drive in FGM car. When exactly did this happen? Why? How could he have gotten as far as the riding school? When was this drive actually disclosed to police?

Why was the FGM car not examined until a week after the event? How extensive was this examination? Did dogs sniff the car on the day of the disappearance and was any scent detected?

Why the unusual sleeping arrangements? Why did the FM and FF not sleep in the same bed? Were they in disagreement about something? William or his sister could have slept on the couch or something if they didn't want the kids in the same room.

FGM walkthrough: Why was FGM unaware of phone calls in the morning, and why was it necessary for her to call GO in the afternoon? He was coming the next Tuesday. How did she know William would not be found by then? And how did GO 'know what was happening' early that afternoon? Surely the details had not been released to the extent that GO would know it involved FGM?

Why was FF allowed to leave the house on his own early the following morning? No overnight police watch on the house?

Was there ever a follow-up on the Spiderman suit spotted on a fence by a cyclist in Kew (in Wendy Hudson's notes)?

Just on one of those topics: "...Why was FF allowed to leave the house on his own early the following morning? No overnight police watch on the house?"

Wasn't the police command post set up in the lower driveway? The search operations centre moved to the Kendall Showground on the Saturday (Day 2) but I've always imagined the command centre stayed at FGM's place. If so, there would have been a steady stream of police and SES people moving in and out 24/7, I think.

 

[LRitz]

I'm not sure that a digital camera can be relied on for "proof of life" at a particular time.

As I type it's 8.22.

But I could pull out my camera and set the time to 9.22, take a photo, change the time on my camera back to 8.22 and that photo is going to have a timestamp of 9.22 even though it was taken at 8.22.

As far as I can tell no metadata is going to pick up that I changed the time on my camera before and after the photo was taken.

So in this case, it's helpful that there's a photo of him and it may go some way to proving he was alive that morning but given the nature of these cameras, it certainly shouldn't be relied upon as heavily as it appears to have been imo.

If it was taken with a smartphone that's a different story.

Agree with Awakening. I am thinking that a change in the camera clock could be easily done and would not have left any evidence to be detected. Adding, for example, one hour before the photos of WT were taken and then resetting after, would be simple and would end up with the time back at the Bali time. A change of one hour would be easy, messing around with the minutes would take time and potential of making an error when getting it back to the original time setting

Apologies that I have only gone back and read this post Awakening now, so some of my recent comments have duplicated this idea.
To check the time on the clock the police could have taken a photo at an exact time, maybe a photo of a clock that included seconds, using a new memory card. From that photo they could see that the camera was set about 2 hours (117 minutes and 10 seconds) earlier than current AEST. This would understandably be consistent with the camera being set up in Bali and not changed when returned to Australia. I think my maths is correct.

The FM had taken a photo of a clock eleven day before. This photo also was consistent with the Bali time setting. So the time on the camera could be proved to be the same before and after Sept 12th and was assumed it was always this way. Then ALL photos taken in Australia were corrected.

If the photo was taken at 8:37 the FF may have been at the house. This also fits in with the FGM confusion of FF leaving at 8:00. She followed the important narrative that he left before the photo was taken but under pressure got confused with what time the photo was taken and what time it was actually taken. If that makes sense.
Still no real proof, but all three should be persons of interest.

 

[31550]

Just on one of those topics: "...Why was FF allowed to leave the house on his own early the following morning? No overnight police watch on the house?"

Wasn't the police command post set up in the lower driveway? The search operations centre moved to the Kendall Showground on the Saturday (Day 2) but I've always imagined the command centre stayed at FGM's place. If so, there would have been a steady stream of police and SES people moving in and out 24/7, I think.

That may be correct, but Wendy Hudson's statement says she returned at 6am on Saturday 13th at which time the FM was in the driveway of the house and stated that FF was out searching for William on his own. So if the police were on watch, the FF must have left with their knowledge and assumed approval?

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Details of ‘deeply troubling’ police grilling of Tyrrell person of interest

Detectives probing the disappearance of William Tyrrell were so fixated on a pensioner living metres from where the toddler went missing that they mapped his daily early morning walk.

www.news.com.au

Paul Savage. I find this intriguing. The initial interviews suggested he heard kids playing. At the inquest his testimony is he heard nothing. A total reversal. There had also been question marks if I recall correctly that he had also changed his testimony at one point to reflect the existence of strange cars on the street..I'll look again for that.

Whether he heard children playing or not is critical because it is to my understanding the only independent testimony of proof of life other than the family. Was there any other? If it is true and proven to be WT then any earlier timeline becomes untenable

I'm staring to believe that he followed closely and was heavily influenced by media accounts and accounts on the day saying that they were playing. So confirmation bias as it were to introduce himself as having knowledge of hearing children play when he perhaps never did. Simply because he was outside between 9 and 9.30 and should have heard it and his mind created it accordingly

Of course if that original testimony proves untrue and influenced by confirmation bias the 7.39 timeline becomes very plausible.

Given the level of incriminating indications toward 7.39 I'm inclined at this point to accept the later version as being correct or at least possible

 

[31550]

Agree with Awakening. I am thinking that a change in the camera clock could be easily done and would not have left any evidence to be detected. Adding, for example, one hour before the photos of WT were taken and then resetting after, would be simple and would end up with the time back at the Bali time. A change of one hour would be easy, messing around with the minutes would take time and potential of making an error when getting it back to the original time setting

Apologies that I have only gone back and read this post Awakening now, so some of my recent comments have duplicated this idea.
To check the time on the clock the police could have taken a photo at an exact time, maybe a photo of a clock that included seconds, using a new memory card. From that photo they could see that the camera was set about 2 hours (117 minutes and 10 seconds) earlier than current AEST. This would understandably be consistent with the camera being set up in Bali and not changed when returned to Australia. I think my maths is correct.

The FM had taken a photo of a clock eleven day before. This photo also was consistent with the Bali time setting. So the time on the camera could be proved to be the same before and after Sept 12th and was assumed it was always this way. Then ALL photos taken in Australia were corrected.

If the photo was taken at 8:37 the FF may have been at the house. This also fits in with the FGM confusion of FF leaving at 8:00. She followed the important narrative that he left before the photo was taken but under pressure got confused with what time the photo was taken and what time it was actually taken. If that makes sense.
Still no real proof, but all three should be persons of interest.

Yes, that may all be possible, but to support allegations that this actually happened, police would have to put forward some suggestion why the time on the camera would be changed, photos taken, then changed back. The allegation in itself suggests the FM knew beforehand that something was going to happen to William in the following hour which would require a photo alibi. And if you were going down that track of conspiracy and cover-up, why not hand the camera with the photos immediately to police on the Friday as further 'proof'?

 

[31550]

Details of ‘deeply troubling’ police grilling of Tyrrell person of interest

Detectives probing the disappearance of William Tyrrell were so fixated on a pensioner living metres from where the toddler went missing that they mapped his daily early morning walk.

www.news.com.au

Paul Savage. I find this intriguing. The initial interviews suggested he heard kids playing. At the inquest his testimony is he heard nothing. A total reversal. There had also been question marks if I recall correctly that he had also changed his testimony at one point to reflect the existence of strange cars on the street..I'll look again for that.

Whether he heard children playing or not is critical because it is to my understanding the only independent testimony of proof of life other than the family. Was there any other? If it is true and proven to be WT then any earlier timeline becomes untenable

I'm staring to believe that he followed closely and was heavily influenced by media accounts and accounts on the day saying that they were playing. So confirmation bias as it were to introduce himself as having knowledge of hearing children play when he perhaps never did. Simply because he was outside between 9 and 9.30 and should have heard it and his mind created it accordingly

Of course if that original testimony proves untrue and influenced by confirmation bias the 7.39 timeline becomes very plausible.

Savage was an old man with obvious issues (talking to himself on surveillance tapes). The inquest was several years after the event, during which time he had been treated with suspicion and interviewed several times by police. He had a fractured relationship with FGM. Not surprising to me his testimony is all over the place. Possibly even cognitive decline or dementia, but at least understandable forgetfulness.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Savage was an old man with obvious issues (talking to himself on surveillance tapes). The inquest was several years after the event, during which time he had been treated with suspicion and interviewed several times by police. He had a fractured relationship with FGM. Not surprising to me his testimony is all over the place. Possibly even cognitive decline or dementia, but at least understandable forgetfulness.

Agree with all that including that his memory and cognitive decline may impose on the situation. He agreed his memory was hazy. In an evidentiary sense it's worthless now. But we are at that stage of seeking to determine what might be the facts we can place some reliance upon. I can't place reliance upon the fact he heard kids playing just as I can't place reliance that he didn't. Ie it's of worthless value either way

 

[LRitz]

Yes, that may all be possible, but to support allegations that this actually happened, police would have to put forward some suggestion why the time on the camera would be changed, photos taken, then changed back. The allegation in itself suggests the FM knew beforehand that something was going to happen to William in the following hour which would require a photo alibi. And if you were going down that track of conspiracy and cover-up, why not hand the camera with the photos immediately to police on the Friday as further 'proof'?

Why not immediately. It could be you do not want to be too eager with your alibi.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

My theory regarding probability of the 48 min window has a flaw. The photo and the incident are unrelated events happening randomly. But there is a third variable in defining the time they had that is the time that search commenced and others became involved. That time 10.25 was always under control of FM. You can legitimately say she wouldn't have started the search without doing what was needed. She would have extended it to allow whatever time was needed. You still have to determine the feasibility of doing my list within 48 min entirety but if you think it feasible but that alone because she has control of when she moved forward

Apologies.

 

[31550]

Why not immediately. It could be you do not want to be too eager with your alibi.

OK so your theory is that an alibi is created beforehand, but to give it further credibility, it is initially withheld? So, why is the alibi required at all? What did the FM know was about to happen to William? And then, why supply the alibi photographs at all, later? They were not ever required for her to prove anything about her story? Because the police believed initially lost, and then possibly abducted. So why provide a faked alibi when it was never required? They weren't under suspicion.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Why not immediately. It could be you do not want to be too eager with your alibi.

The time on the camera could have been returned to AEST upon returning from Bali. The picture taken 7.39 AEST. Something happens and WT hidden early that morning. They then have to play out it happened later. FF alibi at pharmacy and online meeting. FM plays out search

Afterwards they realize that attention will turn to them so

• Push abduction ....cars seen
• Prove proof of life. Editing image data
• Delete photos taken on return other than those that day

To make it appear there was proof of life they conceive amending EXIF data so that it seems that the corrected time per camera clock is 9.37.They then turn camera clock back to Bali time as though it was never recorded at AEST and explain the corrected time as being Bali time on the camera using it as an alibi.

What supports that?

• They didn't hand the Spiderman picture in even though just taken
• They didn't hand camera in until later. Do we know when that happened?
• Multiple circumstantial evidence pointing to earlier time + FGM issues
• Per the FGM the FF was gone before 8. Where? It was 5 min trip..Just wrong? Perhaps. But it might be right and he was somewhere then driving directly to online meeting and pharmacy afterwards. Phone off no ping and opposite direction National park no CCTV
  * Why didn't FGM answer a call that morning when with all we've been told she was there and could have. Answer: WT was dead and the last thing she wanted to do was answer the phone

We now know that the Savage account about hearing anything was questionable. His current evidence per inquest is he didn't hear anything.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

The reality is that if the entire timeline is play they will be considered prime suspects. They had to getaway from that by implicating the different timeline FF not there and with insufficient time and by pointing to abduction.

 

[LRitz]

Details of ‘deeply troubling’ police grilling of Tyrrell person of interest

Detectives probing the disappearance of William Tyrrell were so fixated on a pensioner living metres from where the toddler went missing that they mapped his daily early morning walk.

www.news.com.au

Paul Savage. I find this intriguing. The initial interviews suggested he heard kids playing. At the inquest his testimony is he heard nothing. A total reversal. There had also been question marks if I recall correctly that he had also changed his testimony at one point to reflect the existence of strange cars on the street..I'll look again for that.

Whether he heard children playing or not is critical because it is to my understanding the only independent testimony of proof of life other than the family. Was there any other? If it is true and proven to be WT then any earlier timeline becomes untenable

I'm staring to believe that he followed closely and was heavily influenced by media accounts and accounts on the day saying that they were playing. So confirmation bias as it were to introduce himself as having knowledge of hearing children play when he perhaps never did. Simply because he was outside between 9 and 9.30 and should have heard it and his mind created it accordingly

Of course if that original testimony proves untrue and influenced by confirmation bias the 7.39 timeline becomes very plausible.

Given the level of incriminating indications toward 7.39 I'm inclined at this point to accept the later version as being correct or at least possible

I'm going for 8:37.
Children Climbing trees, riding bikes, eggs and orange juice, tea and coffee, kookaburras and strange cars

The time on the camera could have been returned to AEST upon returning from Bali. The picture taken 7.39 AEST. Something happens and WT hidden early that morning. They then have to play out it happened later. FF alibi at pharmacy and online meeting. FM plays out search

Afterwards they realize that attention will turn to them so

• Push abduction ....cars seen
• Prove proof of life. Editing image data
• Delete photos taken on return other than those that day

To make it appear there was proof of life they conceive amending EXIF data so that it seems that the corrected time per camera clock is 9.37.They then turn camera clock back to Bali time as though it was never recorded at AEST and explain the corrected time as being Bali time on the camera using it as an alibi.

What supports that?

• They didn't hand the Spiderman picture in even though just taken
• They didn't hand camera in until later. Do we know when that happened?
• Multiple circumstantial evidence pointing to earlier time + FGM issues
• Per the FGM the FF was gone before 8. Where? It was 5 min trip..Just wrong? Perhaps. But it might be right and he was somewhere then driving directly to online meeting and pharmacy afterwards. Phone off no ping and opposite direction National park no CCTV
  * Why didn't FGM answer a call that morning when with all we've been told she was there and could have. Answer: WT was dead and the last thing she wanted to do was answer the phone

We now know that the Savage account about hearing anything was questionable. His current evidence per inquest is he didn't hear anything.

I do not know anything about amending EXIF data on photos, but sounds quite technical.
Also as i understand that the photo, taken by "chance", of the sunrise show would have shown the camera still on Bali time. They wanted the camera time to look unchanged.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I'm going for 8:37.
Children Climbing trees, riding bikes, eggs and orange juice, tea and coffee, kookaburras and strange cars

I do not know anything about amending EXIF data on photos, but sounds quite technical.
Also as i understand that the photo, taken by "chance", of the sunrise show would have shown the camera still on Bali time. They wanted the camera time to look unchanged.

There is a recent post by me article about editing EXIF date. Not difficult it said. Check back