Opinion Domestic Politics BF style

[RussellEbertHandball]

That article made me go looking for this tweet by Kohler with his son Chris about housing issues back in August. I was going to post it back then but forgot.

I had no idea the Chris Kohler doing finance for 9 out of Melbourne (thought he was Sydney based), was Alan's son.

Get rid of 50% CGT exemption for housing. Go back to taxing the after inflation real gain, like when CGT was brought in, in 1985 and stop the distortion of investment in an asset class that should be a basic human need, not an investment opportunity, as per another Alan Kohler's graph shown in the video.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

During the Qld election night coverage I heard a couple LNP people say they needed a John Howard (by one person) and a Kevin Rudd (by another person) size swing to form government, early in the night when the swing was still small because only about 10% of the vote had been counted.

They needed about 5% across the board, to get a 1 seat majority, but got 7% so have a 5 seat majority.

Last weekend I decided to look at what the swing was for those 2 elections - didn't analyse what they needed across the board to get a majority of seats, and decided to look at what the swing was for the other times the government has changed at the federal level since WWII.

1949 swing was 5.1% to the Liberal - Country Party coalition. The number of seats had increased from 74 at 1946 election to 121 at 1949 so senate went from 30 to 60 as well, as the constitution says senate has to be approx half the size of the house.

1972 2.5% to Whitlam, but he got a 7.1% swing in 1969 and nearly won government after the disaster that was the Vietnam / LBJ fuelled election of 1966 for the ALP, led by 3 time loser Arthur Caldwell. Had to flip a net 4 seats as it was a 66 v 59 chamber.

1975 7.4% to Fraser after the Dismissal a month earlier. Only needed less than 2% as only had to flip a net 3 seats in the 66 v 61 chamber.

1983 3.63% to Hawke. It was a 74 v 51 chamber so he had to flip a net 12 seats.

1984 seats increased to 148 in the house and senate to 76. House has slowly been increased to 151 as redistributions occur, but some elections there is a decrease by a seat.

1996 5.07% to Howard. It was a 80 v 65+2 independents chamber so had to flip so had to flip a net 10 seats to get to 75 in a 148 seat chamber.

2007 5.44% to Rudd. It was 87 v 60+3 independents in a 150 seat chamber, so had to flip a net 16 seats

2013 3.61% to Abbott. It was a 72 v 72+6 others and Gillard governed with the support of 1 Greens member and 2 independents. So Abbott had to flip a net 4 seats. Labour's 7 most marginal seats all required a swing of less than 0.6% to fall to the coalition.

2022 3.66% to Albanese. It was a 77 v 68+6 others chamber. ALP needed to flip 8 seats to have a majority government. They flipped a net 9, but its now a 77 v 58+16 others with 12 independents and 4 Greens members.

Unless something very dramatic happens between now and whenever the next election is, I think ALP loses seats, the coalition wins some seats, and a minority government happens and depending on the size of the swing, (which I cant see being the 4% the coalition needs and is consistent with above history), and deals will have to be done as to where the independents and Greens move their support to see which of the major parties form a minority government.

Well I find it hard to believe the Greens would support the coalition, but a bucket of money to pet projects type bribery, is always a chance.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

The talk of left wing vs right wing in the US election thread had me recalling this article from Bill Kelty a couple of weeks ago in the Weekend Oz the day of the Qld election.

Slashing Oz's manufacturing base for jobs to move to services and construction industries, has meant less unionised labor rates have fallen, and the RBA can't make 1% and 1.5% movements in interest rates as there is very little manufacturing industry to put a clamp on the economy to slow it down, so its now 0.25% here and there as people are now locked into huge mortgages and they don't want to spoke them and their mates in the commercial banks.

He talks about the reduction of the manufacturing base.

But he makes an interesting point that tradies, especially who those work in construction aren't a really Labor voters anymore. Once they do well, they tend to buy investment properties as they can do a lot of the work on them for no cost, and get other tradie mates to do things at mates rates, if they bought them for a good price because they were old and run down, or did the buy a big block and knock the old house down and build 2 townhouses on the land type investment. And as they get older and more into the property market, move away from Labor.

On election campaigns and big policy announcements of 30 years ago, politicians used to go to manufacturing plants put on the fluro vest and make an announcement there. Now they go to construction sites wearing the fluro vests to make the announcements there or at some big services business.

https://archive.md/iivhF

Labor’s left wing has ‘died’, it could lose election, says Bill Kelty​

Bill Kelty says the left wing of the Labor Party ‘died a long time ago’, warning the party could be defeated at the next election.

Former union stalwart Bill Kelty says the left wing of the Labor Party “died a long time ago”, warning there is a “real chance” the party is heading to defeat at the next election.
As former Labor minister Kim Carr reopens old Labor wars with the publication of his memoir, Mr Kelty said major shifts in the economy, structural changes to the workforce and a decline in manufacturing jobs had diminished the ALP’s voter base.

Mr Kelty said concern about the environment, the treatment of asylum-seekers and the fall of unionisation had also contributed to an increase in support for the Greens and the independents, especially among young people.

The long-serving Australian Council of Trade Unions secretary said the Albanese government had made some positive changes but needed to put forward an “inspirational set of policies” that are “better explained”.
After the voice referendum was resoundingly defeated, Mr Kelty has also pushed for a treaty as the next step towards recognition of Indigenous Australians, criticising the Labor Party for not providing clarity on its position.

“I don’t think there’s a left wing in the Labor Party,” Mr Kelty told The Weekend Australian. “I think the left wing disappeared. I think the left wing died.
“What is the left-wing position on AUKUS in the party? They support AUKUS, apparently.
“Is there a left-wing position on the treaty? I think many of the Labor Party members probably do have a strong view on supporting a treaty. I don’t know. “Is there a left-wing view on the modern workplace? I don’t know.”

While stressing that he had not read Mr Carr’s memoir, Mr Kelty said the former Labor senator’s criticism that Labor had lost touch with blue-colour, low-income workers was “partly true”, arguing the trend was more extreme in the US than Australia.

“What is happening is that the primary vote has fallen significantly,” he said. “Part of the primary vote fall has been the big structural changes in the economy in which there are less manufacturing blue-collar workers.
“And as a result of that there are relatively more tradespeople, and they’ve had a tendency in the past to vote Liberal Party more than manufacturing workers, and that trend has continued. So I do think there’s a structural change in the employment market, structural change in the demography which has affected it.”

Mr Kelty said there was a chance Anthony Albanese could be defeated at the next election.
“There is a chance they could get defeated at the next election, a real chance,” he said.
“Just look at the polls. Last time it got 33, they’re recording 28 to 32 so that represents a swing against the Labor Party, and they don’t have a buffer. “So there’s a chance. The question is, can the Liberal National Party get in front of the Labor Party? That’s not so hard to achieve. So there is a chance.”

Mr Kelty said the Prime Minister’s attempt to enshrine an Indigenous voice to parliament in the Constitution was a “noble effort” but ultimately the concept was a “very hard thing” to sell to voters.
Pointing to a treaty as the path forward, Mr Kelty argued Mr Albanese had “started at the wrong end” by attempting to pass the voice rather than building from the bottom.

He also argued the case for Labor to implement a “manifesto for young people”, to combat voter disillusionment because of soaring house prices, the high cost of living, stagnant wages and stubborn student debts.

Labor-aligned political strategist Kos Samaras said the polling reflected a decline in support among the party’s traditional base and an increase in the perception that the ALP doesn’t “represent them”.

“When you get in government, and you leave government and people are poorer than they were when you first got into government – that’s your KPI. That’s what you get votes on,” he said.

“So whether it was the Rudd-Gillard years, whether it’s now the Albanese government, if at the end of the this first term people are poorer … then you failed in your objective to represent low-income workers. That’s why they’re moving away.”

 

[raptalia]

Clearly Peter Malinauskas jumped the gun on The Indigenous Voice to Parliament. He anticipated that the Voice Referendum would get up on the Federal scene and thought he would do some 'politiking' by having SA lead the way.

His first mistake was counting his chickens before they hatched and the second was putting Kyam Maher in charge. Maher is also responsible for SA's fractured shopping hours legislation.

The SA First Nations Voice to Parliament is an unnecessary fiasco which uses SA taxpayers money which could be put into other areas such as funding of education facilities in remote communities. Even those who were elected to the SA voice describe it as unworkable...

SA's First Nations Voice to Parliament hit by resignations amid concerns about 'unsustainable' model

Four elected members and a senior staff member have resigned months after South Australia's inaugural First Nations Voice to Parliament elections were held, with one outgoing leader describing the model as "unsustainable".

www.abc.net.au

 

[Festerz]

David Speirs, former SA Liberal Party leader, has just seen his former southern suburbs seat flip over to the Labor Party in an unprecedented swing towards the incumbent Malinauskas Government in the by election brought on by his resignation due to drug supply charges.

The ongoing clusterfeck that is the SA Liberals continues.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Too early to call but 13% swing away from Libs is a farkin disaster for them. 2 bye elections lost in opposition.
A government hasn't taken a seat from the opposition at a by-election in a century and now we have two in a single term

 

[Festerz]

Too early to call but 13% swing away from Libs is a farkin disaster for them. 2 bye elections lost in opposition.
A government hasn't taken a seat from the opposition at a by-election in a century and now we have two in a single term

It's my view that people get the best government if that government is continually scrutinised and under political pressure to demonstrate that the decisions they make are in the best interests of the community.

Whether Malinauskas is or isn't a good politician making good decisions for the rest of us is not being tested. He's being given a free ride because of the self interest and incompetence of the SA Liberals and their ongoing factional wars. A great result for Labor politicians and their staffers but a shit outcome for the rest of us.

 

[Chewy316]

It's my view that people get the best government if that government is continually scrutinised and under political pressure to demonstrate that the decisions they make are in the best interests of the community.

Whether Malinauskas is or isn't a good politician making good decisions for the rest of us is not being tested. He's being given a free ride because of the self interest and incompetence of the SA Liberals and their ongoing factional wars. A great result for Labor politicians and their staffers but a shit outcome for the rest of us.

I agree with your premise re: best government.

Additionally, to what degree do you believe the media should be holding the government to account?

I think the role of the media has changed significantly over the last 20 odd years in particular, to the point where they've become (imo) a third arm in the role of scrutinising all sides of politics.

In saying that, do you think the media has been doing a good job of covering the Malinauskas government? I'm not sure either way.

During the Qld election night coverage I heard a couple LNP people say they needed a John Howard (by one person) and a Kevin Rudd (by another person) size swing to form government, early in the night when the swing was still small because only about 10% of the vote had been counted.

They needed about 5% across the board, to get a 1 seat majority, but got 7% so have a 5 seat majority.

Last weekend I decided to look at what the swing was for those 2 elections - didn't analyse what they needed across the board to get a majority of seats, and decided to look at what the swing was for the other times the government has changed at the federal level since WWII.

1949 swing was 5.1% to the Liberal - Country Party coalition. The number of seats had increased from 74 at 1946 election to 121 at 1949 so senate went from 30 to 60 as well, as the constitution says senate has to be approx half the size of the house.

1972 2.5% to Whitlam, but he got a 7.1% swing in 1969 and nearly won government after the disaster that was the Vietnam / LBJ fuelled election of 1966 for the ALP, led by 3 time loser Arthur Caldwell. Had to flip a net 4 seats as it was a 66 v 59 chamber.

1975 7.4% to Fraser after the Dismissal a month earlier. Only needed less than 2% as only had to flip a net 3 seats in the 66 v 61 chamber.

1983 3.63% to Hawke. It was a 74 v 51 chamber so he had to flip a net 12 seats.

1984 seats increased to 148 in the house and senate to 76. House has slowly been increased to 151 as redistributions occur, but some elections there is a decrease by a seat.

1996 5.07% to Howard. It was a 80 v 65+2 independents chamber so had to flip so had to flip a net 10 seats to get to 75 in a 148 seat chamber.

2007 5.44% to Rudd. It was 87 v 60+3 independents in a 150 seat chamber, so had to flip a net 16 seats

2013 3.61% to Abbott. It was a 72 v 72+6 others and Gillard governed with the support of 1 Greens member and 2 independents. So Abbott had to flip a net 4 seats. Labour's 7 most marginal seats all required a swing of less than 0.6% to fall to the coalition.

2022 3.66% to Albanese. It was a 77 v 68+6 others chamber. ALP needed to flip 8 seats to have a majority government. They flipped a net 9, but its now a 77 v 58+16 others with 12 independents and 4 Greens members.

Unless something very dramatic happens between now and whenever the next election is, I think ALP loses seats, the coalition wins some seats, and a minority government happens and depending on the size of the swing, (which I cant see being the 4% the coalition needs and is consistent with above history), and deals will have to be done as to where the independents and Greens move their support to see which of the major parties form a minority government.

Well I find it hard to believe the Greens would support the coalition, but a bucket of money to pet projects type bribery, is always a chance.

Pigs will fly before the coalition form an alliance with the greens to form a minority federal government.

A minority govt at the federal level next year will lead to the same shit show we saw in 2010-2013 imo. Regardless of who I vote for at next year's election, I'm hoping to see a definitive win so there is a clear mandate if you will to govern in accordance with the policies set forth during the election campaign. Though as it stands, a minority Labor government looks most likely, but there's still a fair way out yet to be making such predictions. A few more gaffes from Albo and the ALP could be in quite a spot of bother.

 

[Festerz]

In saying that, do you think the media has been doing a good job of covering the Malinauskas government?

Posted previously about the hollowing out of political journalism in SA with the majority of the more experienced and competent ones having either retired, going to roles in Canberra and eastern states covering Federal politics or most notably in recent years, accepting relatively high paid roles as media advisers and Ministerial advisors/spin doctors the Malinauskas government'.

As a result, there is not the level of local media scrutiny of the Malinauskas government that previous governments have attracted. Take his pet project, the $600m Hydrogen hub, for example headed by a former Labor Party political staffer on a mega salary Sam Crafter. That project has attracted virtually no deep analysis or scrutiny from the media despite sucking truck loads of taxpayer cash and growing uncertainty of its commercial viability with Origin Energy and Andrew Forrest's Fortesque abandoing their hydrogen plans in other states.

Similarly, the dishing out of millions of taxpayer funds on attracting high profile feel good sports and entertainment concerts and events to the state has been a hallmark of his government's two years in power that hasn't had the level of scrutiny and assessment it deserves. Where's the independent economic assessment (i.e. not funded by the government) that demonstrates that these things are the best possible use of public funds?

Make no mistake though, the disastrous flop of the Liberal Party in yesterday's Black by-election is down to the Liberals themselves. The circumstances surrounding the need for that by election including the political knifing of the former leader David Speirs by his colleagues, the subsequent videos of him circulated to the media by person(s) unknown showing him using a 'white substance' and then him claiming it was part of some deep state conspiracy was a shit show of epic proportions. And then to top it off the Libs nominate someone who doesn't even live in the area as the replacement candidate. Will have ZERO implications for the upcoming Federal election though.

 

[PowerBaz]

Posted previously about the hollowing out of political journalism in SA with the majority of the more experienced and competent ones having either retired, going to roles in Canberra and eastern states covering Federal politics or most notably in recent years, accepting relatively high paid roles as media advisers and Ministerial advisors/spin doctors the Malinauskas government'.

As a result, there is not the level of local media scrutiny of the Malinauskas government that previous governments have attracted. Take his pet project, the $600m Hydrogen hub, for example headed by a former Labor Party political staffer on a mega salary Sam Crafter. That project has attracted virtually no deep analysis or scrutiny from the media despite sucking truck loads of taxpayer cash and growing uncertainty of its commercial viability with Origin Energy and Andrew Forrest's Fortesque abandoing their hydrogen plans in other states.

Similarly, the dishing out of millions of taxpayer funds on attracting high profile feel good sports and entertainment concerts and events to the state has been a hallmark of his government's two years in power that hasn't had the level of scrutiny and assessment it deserves. Where's the independent economic assessment (i.e. not funded by the government) that demonstrates that these things are the best possible use of public funds?

Make no mistake though, the disastrous flop of the Liberal Party in yesterday's Black by-election is down to the Liberals themselves. The circumstances surrounding the need for that by election including the political knifing of the former leader David Speirs by his colleagues, the subsequent videos of him circulated to the media by person(s) unknown showing him using a 'white substance' and then him claiming it was part of some deep state conspiracy was a shit show of epic proportions. And then to top it off the Libs nominate someone who doesn't even live in the area as the replacement candidate. Will have ZERO implications for the upcoming Federal election though.

The Gov here is doing a bloody decent job of it. Way way better than federal.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

 

[PortWTF]

In the aftermath of the US election I read that every incumbent government up for re-election in 2024 in what we would consider liberal democracies lost. Cost of living pressures all around the world after the pandemic have caused economic hardships that simply have not been forgiven be the electorates. With still relatively high inflation and persistently high interest rates Albo will be under the pump here too. Will be quite easy to pin inflation on some of his policy decisions..

 

[PowerBaz]

In the aftermath of the US election I read that every incumbent government up for re-election in 2024 in what we would consider liberal democracies lost. Cost of living pressures all around the world after the pandemic have caused economic hardships that simply have not been forgiven be the electorates. With still relatively high inflation and persistently high interest rates Albo will be under the pump here too. Will be quite easy to pin inflation on some of his policy decisions..

Will be quite easy to pin inflation on some of his policy decisions.. (funny how everybody forgets at the cash splash during Covid times which caused the mess).

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Libby Mettam has overwhelmingly survived a Liberal partyroom motion against her leadership after an almost two-hour meeting of MPs.
In a snap move on Tuesday morning — following polling in The West Australian forecasting a “catastrophic” result for the Liberal Party under Ms Mettam at next year’s State election — she said her position would be discussed at a party room meeting.
The West understands the 10 Liberal MPs overwhelmingly agreed to reject a motion, by nine votes to one, to install Perth Lord Mayor Basil Zempilas as the party’s campaign leader.

Libby Mettam survives as Liberals’ leader

Libby Mettam has overwhelmingly survived a Liberal partyroom motion against her leadership after an almost two-hour meeting of MPs.

thewest.com.au

 

[Duckimus Prime]

With still relatively high inflation and persistently high interest rates Albo will be under the pump here too. Will be quite easy to pin inflation on some of his policy decisions..

Will be quite easy to pin inflation on some of his policy decisions.. (funny how everybody forgets at the cash splash during Covid times which caused the mess).

Its funny, if we had an unbiased 4th estate reporting on the government then pretty sure Labor would be happy to have their policies since its actually gone down because of them.

 

[Festerz]

Its funny, if we had an unbiased 4th estate reporting on the government then pretty sure Labor would be happy to have their policies since its actually gone down because of them.

Without getting into a debate about the underlying causes of inflation, which will never go down well on a footy forum, there's no doubt that inflation in Australia has fallen significantly over the course of the past 3 years, despite public perceptions.

That inflation has fallen so significantly while unemployment remains at historically low levels and real wages are starting to increase is something that most economists find pretty startling but it gets bugger all attention from the media.

For the record real wages in Australia grew 0.7 per cent through the year to the September quarter 2024. This is the strongest rate of real wage growth in four years. In stark contrast, real wages were going backwards by 3.4 per cent, and went backwards in the five quarters leading up to the last election.

On the flip side the continuing resilience of the job market is one of the main reasons why the Reserve Bank is reluctant to cut interest rates. But those with a home of their own are seeing their real wealth skyrocket as housing prices continue to rise - even those who bought their first home in SA in just the past 12 months.

Those who are renting or homeless are the ones who are really suffering in this economy at the moment. And creating the biggest gap between the haves and have nots on a scale this country has not seen in the past century.

The continued failure of governments both Labor and LNP to do something about that on a meaningful scale is the greatest crisis facing our economy. And governments are too scared to do anything close to the scale required in a policy sense to turn things around because of the negative press it will create.

It's a bloody disgrace in a wealthy country like this and it's getting worse every month.

/rant.

 

[Mikey13G]

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/productivity-sick-as-a-dog-plummeting-living-standards-worse-since-1959/news-story/d4c9cd6db7de062b2ed6d4e9025c181d?amp&nk=86d1504fbc2ea75b2535273395f7aedd-1732663639

 

[Festerz]

The SA Government yesterday advertised for an Executive Director of the Government Advertising and Insights Hub posted on the Department of Premier and Cabinet careers portal with a salary range of up to $429,104 p.a.

The new role would be in addition to the dozens of spin doctors employed across the SA Government - both in Ministerial offices and in government departments to manage "significant" South Australian government advertising campaigns

Not to worry though, Mali has come to the rescue after significant criticism of the new position in the media. He claims the new position was meant to be a public sector saving measure but says it doesn't fit the 'pub test' and has 'demanded' that the position be withdrawn.

Yes Pete - you got caught out expanding your politically motivated spin empire realised it was a bad look that might tarnish your carefully created golden boy image.

This is what happens when a government has f-all opposition - hubris and arrogance.

Government withdraws job ad for SA advertising executive amid scrutiny over proposed salary ranging up to $430k

The South Australian government has been accused of wasting taxpayer money on a new “spin doctor” but the state's premier claims the new position was meant to be a public sector saving measure.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Puddy]

The SA Government yesterday advertised for an Executive Director of the Government Advertising and Insights Hub posted on the Department of Premier and Cabinet careers portal with a salary range of up to $429,104 p.a.

The new role would be in addition to the dozens of spin doctors employed across the SA Government - both in Ministerial offices and in government departments to manage "significant" South Australian government advertising campaigns

Not to worry though, Mali has come to the rescue after significant criticism of the new position in the media. He claims the new position was meant to be a public sector saving measure but says it doesn't fit the 'pub test' and has 'demanded' that the position be withdrawn.

Yes Pete - you got caught out expanding your politically motivated spin empire realised it was a bad look that might tarnish your carefully created golden boy image.

This is what happens when a government has f-all opposition - hubris and arrogance.

Government withdraws job ad for SA advertising executive amid scrutiny over proposed salary ranging up to $430k

The South Australian government has been accused of wasting taxpayer money on a new “spin doctor” but the state's premier claims the new position was meant to be a public sector saving measure.

www.abc.net.au

Use that money to employ more nurses

 

[raptalia]

The question is how much longer is this waste of SA taxpayer's money going to continue? The SA Voice to Parliamment is a feel good exercise for the Malinauskas Government funded by taxpayers. The Federal referendum clearly showed that the majority of Australians, South Australians included, do not believe that an indigenous voice is necessary so why does Malinauskas persist?

'We are determined to prove you wrong': South Australia's Voice to Parliament makes first address

As SA's Voice to Parliament delivered its historic first speech, some are calling for faith in its ability to create meaningful change. But critics say they are not opposed to axing the body altogether.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Sunshine81]

The question is how much longer is this waste of SA taxpayer's money going to continue? The SA Voice to Parliamment is a feel good exercise for the Malinauskas Government funded by taxpayers. The Federal referendum clearly showed that the majority of Australians, South Australians included, do not believe that an indigenous voice is necessary so why does Malinauskas persist?

'We are determined to prove you wrong': South Australia's Voice to Parliament makes first address

As SA's Voice to Parliament delivered its historic first speech, some are calling for faith in its ability to create meaningful change. But critics say they are not opposed to axing the body altogether.

www.abc.net.au

People voted for a government with this as one of their election promises. People voted against a change in the constitution. Not the same thing.

 

[Mikey13G]

 

[Grave Danger]

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/south-australian-senator-simon-birmingham-to-retire-at-next-election/news-story/8ab8c1ad0ec69ef59b6594a66bfb52fc

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/south-australian-senator-simon-birmingham-to-retire-at-next-election/news-story/8ab8c1ad0ec69ef59b6594a66bfb52fc

I said to a mate when the Spiers stuff hit the fan that the SA state Liberals need Simon Birmingham or someone as talented as he is to lead the state Liberals as there is a dearth of talent at the state level. Then said but Birmingham wouldn't want to put up with the lack of talent and the ongoing shit fight between wets and drys in SA.

Looks like he is getting out of politics all together and is taking up a commercial job. Says it wont involve lobbying. I thought he was about 60 not 50. No paywall at the ABC site.

Liberal senator Simon Birmingham to retire from politics at the next election

Opposition Senate leader Simon Birmingham has announced he will retire from politics after 17 years to move in a "commercially orientated" direction.

www.abc.net.au