Opinion Domestic Politics BF style

[1954]

Businesses charge on a percentage of sale basis but it should cost no more to process a 1k sale than it does to process a 10K sale. Of course they will say they are only passing on the EFT charges etc. I recently discovered that at my local pub they apply a surcharge for card sales. Buy a beer with cash and you pay the asking price use a card and you pay a surcharge. It also applies to TAB, Keno and lottery sales. Of course they do not publicise this fact.

A cashless society will come at a cost to us the consumers.

The banks get us every time, when I order parts from the UK for a couple of old Triumphs I have the bank double dips on the transaction for the direct debit, even though the supplier accepts my payment in AUD and there is no need for the bank to be involved.

 

[sobrave]

Yeah, tell me about it. It isn't just the banks, I just bought a couple of domestic airline tickets and paid $18.45 for the privilege of using my VISA Card to complete an online transaction. I wouldn't moan if I had any alternative but airlines want us to pay by card then charge us the surcharge and a handling fee.

I have noticed that more and more businesses are applying card handling fees to their transactions. The move to a cashless society will be a windfall for many large enterprises.

I feel like we already had some sort of inquiry thing in regards to banks ripping everyone off with card fees. Seems enough time has passed that they're back their old tricks. The campaigners make billions in profit every quarter but apparently that isn't enough

 

[edgie]

The banks get us every time, when I order parts from the UK for a couple of old Triumphs I have the bank double dips on the transaction for the direct debit, even though the supplier accepts my payment in AUD and there is no need for the bank to be involved.

Bikes or cars?

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[1954]

Bikes or cars?

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Cars, a 1968 TR250 which has been converted to right hook and Petrol Injection, and a 1965 MD which was an Aussie only special using the MK1 sedan, that was made to order.

Of the approx 200 MD's that were made most came with triple strombergs, there were 3 different stages of head tuning (mine is stage 2), and wire wheels, overdrive on 2nd, 3rd and top, headlight protectors, and a tacho on top of the dash board were all standard fittings.


I had a 1959 Bonny many years ago in what was in my opinion the best colour scheme (blue and silver) but marriage and kids forced the sale of that!

 

[edgie]

Cars, a 1968 TR250 which has been converted to right hook and Petrol Injection, and a 1965 MD which was an Aussie only special using the MK1 sedan, that was made to order.

Of the approx 200 MD's that were made most came with triple strombergs, there were 3 different stages of head tuning (mine is stage 2), and wire wheels, overdrive on 2nd, 3rd and top, headlight protectors, and a tacho on top of the dash board were all standard fittings.


I had a 1959 Bonny many years ago in what was in my opinion the best colour scheme (blue and silver) but marriage and kids forced the sale of that!

The missus's dad picked up a 2500tc? And anyway just dumped it on us because he's a hoarder and no room to keep it himself so now we're stuck with it in our driveway and I don't know much about em. It's got twin carbies, that's about all I can see.

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[1954]

The missus's dad picked up a 2500tc? And anyway just dumped it on us because he's a hoarder and no room to keep it himself so now we're stuck with it in our driveway and I don't know much about em. It's got twin carbies, that's about all I can see.

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Is it automatic or manual?

 

[edgie]

Is it automatic or manual?

Auto

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[GremioPower]

I reckon as you get older you get more conservative, must be something to do with looking back on the 'good old days'.

“Left” and “Right” may have different meanings depending on circumstances. Still, I don’t want to get into that.

Having said that, I know some left-cons. They exist. The current political climate brought up something I’d suspected for a while: one can be more similar to people on the other side than to some on his own political side.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Dirty tactics

 

[Festerz]

The SA Liberal Party doing what they've done for the past 50 years - playing internal politics and remaining totally irrelevant to the people they are supposed to represent.

Now they're going full happy clapper anti-abortion culture wars BS. And who the feck are these upper house nobodies anyway?

How a pear-shaped pair exposed fractures within the SA Liberal Party

The pair arrangement between two Liberal MPs with differing views was considered crucial, given the vote on a late-term abortion bill was expected to be tight.

www.abc.net.au

Malinauskas and SA Labor (who have their own dominant faction of god botherers btw) are laughing their way to the next election.

As I keep saying - the lack of a credible opposition to keep governments accountable is bad for all of us.

Maybe David Speirs was right - the SA Liberal Party is a self centred mess and totally dysfunctional - it needs to be declared morally bankrupt and should be taken over by the Federal branch to have any chance of becoming relevant again.

Speirs: Federal takeover of SA Liberal Party should be ‘seriously considered’ - InDaily

www.indaily.com.au

 

[sobrave]

Maybe David Speirs was right - the SA Liberal Party is a self centred mess and totally dysfunctional - it needs to be declared morally bankrupt and should be taken over by the Federal branch to have any chance of becoming relevant again.

Lol, implying the federal libs aren't morally bankrupt, self centred and dysfunctional?

 

[Festerz]

Lol, implying the federal libs aren't morally bankrupt, self centred and dysfunctional?

 

[SpaceCoyote]

 

[Festerz]

The snag tents at Bunnings have gone to utter shite.




Srsly though, this was described by the NSW Premier as giving Charlie and Camilla 'a unique Aussie experience'.

Which, given this is the Australian Head of State and his partner, was either unintended irony or a great Aussie piss-take of royal proportions. (and no flipping onions ffs - stick to the cucumber sandwiches you pasty skinned poms)

 

[JimmyBC]

The snag tents at Bunnings have gone to utter shite.

View attachment 2150513


Srsly though, this was described by the NSW Premier as giving Charlie and Camilla 'a unique Aussie experience'.

Which, given this is the Australian Head of State and his partner, was either unintended irony or a great Aussie piss-take of royal proportions. (and no flipping onions ffs - piss off you pasty poms)

Old mate sausage fingers needs to be careful getting that close to a barbie.

 

[Festerz]

Old mate sausage fingers needs to be careful getting that close to a barbie.

What I would have given for a juicy fat splatter explosion right over his light grey flannel Saville Row suit.

(which is why I'm guessing they went for the fancy large open grill rather than the egalitarian hotplate - the burner turned down to low as he stepped up to serve).

 

[sobrave]

NOTHIN MORE AUSSIE THAN A ****IN SAUSAGE SIZZLE WITH THE ****IN SURF LIFESAVERS MOITE!

 

[Grave Danger]

First the NT, now Queensland have tossed out Labor, although the public servants retained them in the ACT. Of course. I think WA has the next state election, in early March - the best the Libs can hope for is maybe Basil Zempilas might get elected, or even that they might get more members elected than the Nats, and together enough members to have only one or two shadow portfolios each!

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Last night's Qld election coverage on the ABC was a bit of a farce.

When over 50% of people vote early, Antony Green and others trying to make predictions after only 5%, 10% or only 15% of the total eligible votes have been counted, those results are pretty meaningless, trying to factor in how all those pre polls and postal votes might vote is just dumb. Sure you can go based on last time, but there was only about 30% who voted early last Qld election, so that means there could be a huge difference compared to 4 years ago on how the votes will be spread out across candidates.

No one knows how those early voters voted. Its why it was pointless trying to make projections before 1/3 of the vote had been counted ie about 70% of election day votes had been counted.

The fact you get the premier not conceding that the LNP had won a majority, and making more of a stump speech than concession speech, and then 20 minutes later after a decent chunk of those postal votes had been counted, it became clear the LNP had a majority, is a clear example of why people just have to wait and not try and be first - with only half the info.

3 weeks of early voting is too long. 1 week is long enough.

And if the polls have for a long time have said there will be a change of government, and there is a big early vote, that's a pretty good indication people have made up their mind and don't need any more info, and a change is coming.

 

[Chewy316]

Last night's Qld election coverage on the ABC was a bit of a farce.

When over 50% of people vote early, Antony Green and others trying to make predictions after only 5%, 10% or only 15% of the total eligible votes have been counted, those results are pretty meaningless, trying to factor in how all those pre polls and postal votes might vote is just dumb. Sure you can go based on last time, but there was only about 30% who voted early last Qld election, so that means there could be a huge difference compared to 4 years ago on how the votes will be spread out across candidates.

No one knows how those early voters voted. Its why it was pointless trying to make projections before 1/3 of the vote had been counted ie about 70% of election day votes had been counted.

The fact you get the premier not conceding that the LNP had won a majority, and making more of a stump speech than concession speech, and then 20 minutes later after a decent chunk of those postal votes had been counted, it became clear the LNP had a majority, is a clear example of why people just have to wait and not try and be first - with only half the info.

3 weeks of early voting is too long. 1 week is long enough.

And if the polls have for a long time have said there will be a change of government, and there is a big early vote, that's a pretty good indication people have made up their mind and don't need any more info, and a change is coming.

Agreed on all counts, though it was bleeding obvious that the LNP had a majority by the time Miles gave his speech. Was a poor look to end a campaign in which he hit all the high notes for the most part.

Not too sure where the idea that Miles "saved" Labor from a demolition came from. With preferential voting now compulsory in QLD we will never see the likes of a 2012 whitewash in the foreseeable future. And the TPP is sitting at roughly 54/46, and IIRC, the biggest margin in any poll in the month before the election was 55/45 - so for all of the good campaigning Miles did, I'm not sure it did much to affect the vote.

 

[1954]

Last night's Qld election coverage on the ABC was a bit of a farce.

When over 50% of people vote early, Antony Green and others trying to make predictions after only 5%, 10% or only 15% of the total eligible votes have been counted, those results are pretty meaningless, trying to factor in how all those pre polls and postal votes might vote is just dumb. Sure you can go based on last time, but there was only about 30% who voted early last Qld election, so that means there could be a huge difference compared to 4 years ago on how the votes will be spread out across candidates.

No one knows how those early voters voted. Its why it was pointless trying to make projections before 1/3 of the vote had been counted ie about 70% of election day votes had been counted.

The fact you get the premier not conceding that the LNP had won a majority, and making more of a stump speech than concession speech, and then 20 minutes later after a decent chunk of those postal votes had been counted, it became clear the LNP had a majority, is a clear example of why people just have to wait and not try and be first - with only half the info.

3 weeks of early voting is too long. 1 week is long enough.

And if the polls have for a long time have said there will be a change of government, and there is a big early vote, that's a pretty good indication people have made up their mind and don't need any more info, and a change is coming.

Agreed, and I suspect in the US election Trump will call it early if he has a slender lead, and then when he loses (hopefully!) claim the result was rigged to fire up the maga ferals again.

 

[Festerz]

3 weeks of early voting is too long. 1 week is long enough.

THIS.

Because IMHO an extended pre-poll voting period not only allows voting to take place (in record numbers each election) out of sequence with potentially rapidly changing circumstances that could influence voting decisions, such as a criminal scandal involving a candidate, candidates or parties, an emerging crisis or the outcome of the independent treasury costings of election promises of key parties, but has made the election process even more politicised.

Political parties are announcing their more attractive promises earlier, knowing those promises have zero chance of being properly analysed or costed before a growing share of people vote. And voters are casting their votes with incomplete knowledge as a result.

In other words, our elections are being gamed by political tacticians.

That is a backward step for good government by any measure.

This ain't a reflection on the Qld election outcome btw, but my view of how changes to our election processes (including referendums) are leveraging the potential of political manipulation at the state and federal level generally.

The fact that extended pre-polling arrangements was championed and so readily passed state and federal parliaments by the major political parties should have been the danger signal to the rest of us that it was not necessarily in the best long term interest of voters and citizens generally.

 

[Chewy316]

THIS.

Because IMHO an extended pre-poll voting period not only allows voting to take place (in record numbers each election) out of sequence with potentially rapidly changing circumstances that could influence voting decisions, such as a criminal scandal involving a candidate, an emerging crisis or the outcome of the independent treasury costings of election promises of key parties, but has made the election process even more politicised.

Political parties are announcing their more attractive promises earlier, knowing those promises have zero chance of being properly analysed or costed before a growing share of people vote. And voters are casting their votes with incomplete knowledge as a result.

In other words, our elections are being gamed by political tacticians.

That is a backward step for good government by any measure.

I agree with you and REH that the pre-poll voting window of 4 weeks is way too long, and you've summed up the reasons why well.

However, in Oz, how many elections in our nation's history do we think would have changed if pre-poll voting was only 1 week as opposed to 4? I mean how many people already more or less have their vote decided upon well before the election campaign - I would think 85-90% or thereabouts.

I think the idea has a lot of merit and makes a ton of sense, but I also am unsure as to whether implementing it in the past would have resulted in a different result for an election in Oz, at least in recent years.

The only one I can think of would have been if pre-poll was a bigger thing in the 2004 election, ALP probably end up winning that election given how many people turned on Latham after that handshake incident.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Agreed, and I suspect in the US election Trump will call it early if he has a slender lead, and then when he loses (hopefully!) claim the result was rigged to fire up the maga ferals again.

That was exactly what Steven Bannon said they would do one week before the election in 2020.

The booths in small rural and regional towns report early so the Republicans have leads in most of early numbers be it for president, senate or the house or for state of both houses and governors.

Then as the blue wave of city votes favouring democrats came in they would say its rigged.

This is a good watch or listen if you have listen on the ABC app to previous episodes.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Last night's Qld election coverage on the ABC was a bit of a farce.

When over 50% of people vote early, Antony Green and others trying to make predictions after only 5%, 10% or only 15% of the total eligible votes have been counted, those results are pretty meaningless, trying to factor in how all those pre polls and postal votes might vote is just dumb. Sure you can go based on last time, but there was only about 30% who voted early last Qld election, so that means there could be a huge difference compared to 4 years ago on how the votes will be spread out across candidates.

No one knows how those early voters voted. Its why it was pointless trying to make projections before 1/3 of the vote had been counted ie about 70% of election day votes had been counted.

The fact you get the premier not conceding that the LNP had won a majority, and making more of a stump speech than concession speech, and then 20 minutes later after a decent chunk of those postal votes had been counted, it became clear the LNP had a majority, is a clear example of why people just have to wait and not try and be first - with only half the info.

3 weeks of early voting is too long. 1 week is long enough.

And if the polls have for a long time have said there will be a change of government, and there is a big early vote, that's a pretty good indication people have made up their mind and don't need any more info, and a change is coming.

QLD2024 – Preference Flows and Vote by Type compared to 2020

Rather than write a daily post on vote updates, I’ve been putting my effort into ensuring results are as accurate as possible on the ABC Queensland Election Results site. While the ECQ conduc…

antonygreen.com.au

Rather than write a daily post on vote updates, I’ve been putting my effort into ensuring results are as accurate as possible on the ABC Queensland Election Results site.

While the ECQ conducted indicative preference counts for all votes counted on the weekend, it has ceased undertaking further preference counts and removed the weekend’s totals from its website.

Before the data was removed, I captured all the available preference flow data and used it to re-build the preference formulas in the ABC’s election computer. The ABC results site is now applying the weekend’s preference flow data to the latest first preference totals being released by the ECQ.

In this post I will provide some analysis of these flows compared to 2020, and also look at the dramatic increase in swing that occurred on election night as pre-poll centre counts began to arrive.

As at the close of counting on Monday, the swing against Labor on polling day votes was 4.9%, but 8.6% for Pre-polls and 10.3% on the initial count of postal votes. That explains why the swing rose through the evening.

There’s more on vote by type and preference flows inside the post.

Vote by Type​

In a post I published before the election, I pointed out that the result on election night would not be clear until we started to receive results from Early Vote Centres. Whatever the split of votes between Labor and the LNP early in the evening, it would shift if the swing on Early votes was significantly different to polling day votes. Given the LNP’s lead in opinion polls had narrowed through the campaign, it was entirely possible that Labor would perform less well with Early votes compared to election day, which meant any swing against Labor would increase as the night wore on.

And so it proved to be. Early on election night it appeared the swing was in the range 4-5%, but once pre-poll votes arrived the swing rose above 7%.

The table below breaks down two-party preferred vote by type in 2024 compared to 2020. The totals for Early votes include only within district Early Votes, and the Postal Vote total includes only votes received by and counted on Saturday night.

Comparing Vote by Type – Queensland 2020-2024

	2020 Two-Party Vote	2024 Two-Party Vote
Party	Labor %	LNP %	Labor %	LNP %	Swing
Polling Day	55.5	44.5	50.6	49.4	-4.9
Early Votes	52.4	47.6	43.8	56.2	-8.6
Postal	51.3	48.7	41.0	59.0	-10.3

As I have done for three decades, on election night I was analysing results based on swing rather than two-party preferred vote. If you go back to the original work on Australian election prediction by Dr Ross Cunningham, the reason for using 2-party preferred % swing rather than two-party preferred % vote was because the variance of swing was smaller than the variance of 2PP percent. Unlike 2PP%, swing was also not correlated with booth size.

That swing did not correlate with booth size meant you could use swing to produce an unbiased estimator of the final result, and that estimator would also have smaller variance than you get if you used 2PP%.

The problem emerging with this model is that if pre-poll votes behave differently to on the day votes, then the assumption there is no correlation between booth size and swing is breached.

Early votes come from giant count centres that can be ten time the size of an average polling place. They report late in the evening, and their size means they have greater impact on calculation of swing than the average polling place. So having measured a consistent swing for polling place votes through the evening, different behaviour with early votes shifted the predicted swing value. The early evening swing calculation become a biased estimator of the final swing because swing was correlated with booth size.

The problem for anyone like me trying to analyse on election night is you can’t know how different early vote swing is until an early vote centre reports. You can have a consistent swing over a dozen polling places and then one giant pre-poll centre arrives and shifts the value of the swing. And in many electorates at this year’s Queensland election, there was only a single early voting centre.

When I started covering election in the early 1990s there would be only 10-15% of votes cast as pre-poll, postal and absent. You left some wriggle room in your projection at the end of election night to account for a post-election night shift, almost always against Labor. Now these votes make up a majority of the count, and their arrival late in the evening substantially changes the count, as we saw on Saturday.

We have always known that postal votes favour the conservative side of politics, and that absent votes favour Labor. But there is not a consistent pattern with early votes. Early votes range from little difference (NSW 2019) to a significant difference (NSW 2023) to a massive difference (QLD 2024). What this difference is matters more as the proportion of pre-polls grows.

Which explains why all parties and broadcasters were cautious in calling the election result on Saturday. On the day votes pointed to a swing that would produce a hung parliament, but the larger swing that produced an LNP majority government only emerged once Early votes arrived. The 3.1% Labor gap between polling day and early votes in 2020 ballooned to 6.8% in 2024, the election day swing only 4.9% compared to 8.6% for early votes.

There is no guarantee that the same gap in swing would open in 2028, but how are you to judge there is a different gap until the first early vote counts arrive. In the end all you can do is be cautious until you actually see early vote centres report.

Preference Flows​

...........