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Don't write off LJH just yet
- Thread starter slyolddog
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Thread starter
- #2
And here is the story
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,9708730%5E421,00.html
Primary Vote
Lib/NP 47% (+6%)
ALP 37% (-7%)
TPP
Lib/NP 53% (+7%)
ALP 47% (-7%)
Preferred PM
Howard 54% (+4%)
Latham 32% (unch)
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,9708730%5E421,00.html
Primary Vote
Lib/NP 47% (+6%)
ALP 37% (-7%)
TPP
Lib/NP 53% (+7%)
ALP 47% (-7%)
Preferred PM
Howard 54% (+4%)
Latham 32% (unch)
an interesting article, and an interesting poll.
should send shivers up the labour spine.
no doubt rumours of an early poll are stimulated by internal liberal polling that revealed this swing in voter sentament.
it will be a tight election.
me, for once Im a one issue voter, home from iraq and abandon the criminal actions of America.
should send shivers up the labour spine.
no doubt rumours of an early poll are stimulated by internal liberal polling that revealed this swing in voter sentament.
it will be a tight election.
me, for once Im a one issue voter, home from iraq and abandon the criminal actions of America.
That's absolutely incredible. I guess it is the sort of bounce the Libs were looking for after all. If it is accurate (we'll see once the other polls come in), they'd be wise to ride that wave now.
- Banned
- #6
I'm skeptical about this poll. I don't think things have changed that much over a two week period. If this poll is skewed, maybe previous ones were too. I don't trust polls.
Good - might tempt the tossbag to call an election now.
As for the liverpool stuff - I hope you are happy the media are rigging elections like in britain.
As for the liverpool stuff - I hope you are happy the media are rigging elections like in britain.
- Mar 15, 2004
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Agreed we need to wait a while to see if this is a glitch, however, Newspoll is traditionally pretty well "on the money". Just sight their election eve polls which are always spot on.
It's strange though as from what I've heard the Liberal's internal polling has been showing them losing up to 30 seats.
Certainly is a massive swing however you put it, I almost fell off my chair and had to re-read it to be honest. A 13% swing in the primary vote over a two week period can't be right surely??
- Banned
- #9
The media reports whatever comes it's way - particularly if it is scandalous. The Govt will have someone digging the dirt on Latham and they will release it to the press at the time which they think is most advantageous.
All Govt's do it, so stop whining that there is some sort of media conspiracy.
The fact is that opinion polls can always be misleading. Howard would not win the election 53% to 47% (an absolute landslide), and nor is he as unpopular as previous polls suggest. There is only one poll that matters...
Agreed, this will go down to the wire. The marginal seats in SA particularly will play a major part. Libs will take the credibility line against Latham and ALP will play the vote for Johhny and you'll get Peter. Personally, if I truly thought I'd get Peter rather than Johnny, I may even be tempted.
- Jan 13, 2001
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I never have and never will trust newspoll surveys as they have historically been proven to be the worst of the lot. How can you get a 13% turnaround in such a short period of time?
If Howard tries saying anything good about it then he just proves what a little **** of a liar he is, becuase we all know that when he trails he says he pays no attention to the polls.
If Howard tries saying anything good about it then he just proves what a little **** of a liar he is, becuase we all know that when he trails he says he pays no attention to the polls.
By who? News Limited??? Ryan By-election polling in 2001 was one of NewsPoll's worst efforts in memory. But the others aint much better I'll concede that.
The fact is though that NewsPoll is just another poll where they call a random sample up over the weekend and ask which party the person plans to vote for.
Like what was said above, the only true poll is the election poll. That's when everyone has their say.
- Aug 31, 2003
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Woudnt put much store in one poll look at the overall trend of ALL the polls not just the self serving Sollys/ News Corp one.
- Dec 29, 2000
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The polls are all over the place, so i think you will find both parties will try an see a settling in the results. A 13% movement is large but is it reliable?
Likewise...I'd be more tempted to vote for the Libs if Costello was running the ship. He has more credibility than Howard who is a manipulative and lieing popularist. True Howard has had the success in longevity terms but I think he is severely lacking in the virtues of compassion, empathy, integrity and honesty. I suppose you could say that of a few pollies actually.
Farir enough but it has already happened they should have reported it already rather than 'springing' it just before the election, or like they failed to find the full extent of the 'truth overboard' stuff before the last election.
- Banned
- #19
Somehow I don't think you'd be complaining if the shoe was on the other foot.
- Nov 17, 2000
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I see these being main factors
1) When middle Australia and families get their extra income will it swing them?
2) The transition in Iraq at end June
3) Will Latham be exposed as a dreamer?
4) Will the people say that it's time for a change?
1) When middle Australia and families get their extra income will it swing them?
2) The transition in Iraq at end June
3) Will Latham be exposed as a dreamer?
4) Will the people say that it's time for a change?
- Aug 2, 2001
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1: No. The extra income has been shown in many polls that the money would have been spent better in services such as Health etc etc, rather than tax cuts. Plus there are a lot of people earning less than 52G.
2: Won't make a difference. I think much of the public has had a gutful of Iraq and the BS that has come with it in world politics. It has been part of the Press for a long time now, splashed across the papers, the TV, the news. People get bored of tired news.
3: If the ALP voting public vote him in and he has no decent policies, they shall end up being the dreamers. I like Mark, but I worry about his lack of vision rather than anything else. If he had good policies, he would get my vote.
4: Maybe. 8 years is a long time in Govt and he does look old and tired. There have been a lot of things done by Howard that have been well below expectations of such an "honest" govt. We all have brought these things up before on other threads, so there is no need to go over them again, however, there may be a change. If he has no real policies and they go to the election with the hope of winning cause Iron Mark is high in the polls, the ALP will have their pants down. If the ALP come up with a surprise in policies or Iraq falls to bits after 30th June...Bye John.
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