List Mgmt. Draft 2018: Lions 1st (5), Power 1st (10), Hawks 1st (15)

[Chrizzt]

4 Guns
3 or 4 good players, 2-3 okayish players. So yeah, about a 1 in 2 chance of not being a total bust. Not great odds really.

Not really ideal to be comparing back more than 10 years or so. Drafting as a business has advanced a hell of a lot since then. The last 10 years it has a pretty good hit rate, but I agree with the sentiment of draft picks, no matter how high, being a risk.

If we end up trading 9 and 10 for 4 I'd expect we get another pick around 20 odd back, and that we could upgrade one of our picks in the 20s to a pick around 13-15. That gives a shot at an elite talent (Rankine/Rozee), another possible A grader in that 6-15 range (Caldwell/RCD), then a stab at another decent player in that next rung of players in the 15-30 range.

 

[philthy05]

Polec,21 for picks 10,28
Picks 9,28 = equiv to pick 4
And picks 10,27 = equiv pick 4
I want Freos and Bris 1st rounders

**** no

Why are we giving up an excellent pick with a very good player

Yuck.

We hold onto as many picks in the 20’s as we can get.

We absolutely need to take between 5-6 kids from this draft. It’s midfield deep this one.

 

[Adam Marrett23]

4 Guns
3 or 4 good players, 2-3 okayish players. So yeah, about a 1 in 2 chance of not being a total bust. Not great odds really.

Isn't that the draft as a whole? Forget which number is used, it is pot luck with a whole multitude of factors.

 

[Coobk001]

Would everyone be content going into the draft with picks 9, 10, 21, 27 and maybe another top 30 pick?

Maybe use Pittard to upgrade pick 45 into the top 30, use pick 46/Hombsch/Amon to improve our 2019 picks slightly.

I only expect us to use 5 picks, so given we'll only use one of picks 46,47, I think we will bundle them in a points trade for someone that needs points, and try and get ourselves another high 20's pick, obviously with Amon and possibly Pittard and Hombsch tradeable, then we may get some more value to bring that pick even lower.

Either way, I'm expecting 5 draft picks, and I suspect that all of them will be under pick 30.

 

[RossFC]

I only expect us to use 5 picks, so given we'll only use one of picks 46,47, I think we will bundle them in a points trade for someone that needs points, and try and get ourselves another high 20's pick, obviously with Amon and possibly Pittard and Hombsch tradeable, then we may get some more value to bring that pick even lower.

Either way, I'm expecting 5 draft picks, and I suspect that all of them will be under pick 30.

Yeah give me 2 top 10 picks with the other 3 being between 20-30. I'll take that over pick 4 + 4 picks between 20-30.

 

[RangaInTeal]

I agree that picks 10 & 11 (after the lynch compo) for pick 6 is a poor deal for us as that is 2724 pts (picks 10 & 11) for 1751 pts (pick 6 after the lynch compo) which is 973 points difference (which equals a pick 19 - 948pts) so the Brisbane 22 pick (845pts) would also have to come to us.

If any of our 2nd round picks (before the lynch compo) come into play then pick 21 = 878pts and pick 27 is 703pts then we could do pick 11 (1329pts) + pick 27 (703pts) for a total of 2032pts for a pick 6 (1751pts) with 281pts left over (or a 3rd round pick 50)

and we could also do pick 10 (1395pts) + pick 21 (878pts) for a total of 2273pts for Freo's pick 5 (1878pts) with 395pts left over (or a 3rd round pick 42)

thus giving us picks 4, 5 45, 46

(we would still need to get back into the 2nd round)

which could give us a chance at Rankine and 202cm KPP Ben King (to support Todd Marshall in the future once the older key forwards retire) or Rozee

especially if the start of the draft goes like this:

1 Carlton - Walsh
2 Suns - Lukosius
3 Suns (compo) - Smith, Rankine or Rozee
4 Saints - Max King
5 Brisbane to Freo to Port - Rankine (if he drops from 3rd)
………………………………….... or Ben King
6 Freo to Port - Ben King or Rozee

Add Smith in at 6, would prefer over King!

 

[Jonts]

Smith will be the best midfielder from this draft

 

[philthy05]

Smith will be the best midfielder from this draft

He looks a gun doesn’t he. Looks one of those champion best few players on a team will carry the team week in week out types that you build around.

 

[Macca19]

Smith will be the best midfielder from this draft

Walsh will be better. Smith not far behind though.

 

[Schulzenfest]

I'm sure we'll only do the trade if one of Rankine or Rozee are going to be there.

A lot of moves to play out still.

Trading Wingard to get Connor Rozee would just be moronic. No offence to the kid but he hasn't shown half of what Wingard had shown at the same age. The grass isn't always greener.

Yep. I reckon people are getting way too sucked in by the "SA talent" factor. Who gives a **** where they are from, we aren't the Crows. There will still be plenty of talent elsewhere in the draft. I like having 4 picks in the top 27. You are bound to find at least 2 gooduns. We need a new generation coming through, not sell the farm for 1 potential SA star.

Yep. Our two big contracts this year were Ollie Wines (Victorian) and Jared Polec (South Australian). Which one stayed?

 

[Harlott]

Hindsight is a beautiful thing but tell me which potential draftee has a likely 2 AAs in them by the time they're 20yo? Getting rid of Wingard then I'd want two picks in the top ten traded for him to hedge my bets. Won't happen though.

 

[Forzaport]

Yep. Our two big contracts this year were Ollie Wines (Victorian) and Jared Polec (South Australian). Which one stayed?

What about their girlfriends?

 

[240volt]

What about their girlfriends?

Mans biggest downfall .....Woman!

 

[Jonts]

Walsh will be better. Smith not far behind though.

nah he is the one everyone wonders how he got to 5-7 in 5 years time

J Selwood of 07 compared to Gibbs

Macrae/Wines compared to Whitfield/O'Rourke

didn't train at 100% all year and is what 25 days off being too young for this draft?

 

[philthy05]

I would give my left nut for either of Walsh or smith. Think they’re both going to wind up their teams best mids

 

[tribey]

It's all a risk. Pick 4 has had an awful strike rate.

2000 Carlton Luke Livingston
2001 Fremantle Graham Polak
2002 Western Bulldogs Tim Walsh
2003 Western Bulldogs Farren Ray
2004 Richmond Richard Tambling
2005 Carlton Josh Kennedy
2006 Brisbane Matthew Leuenberger
2007 Melbourne Cale Morton
2008 Port Adelaide Hamish Hartlett
2009 Fremantle Anthony Morabito
2010 West Coast Andrew Gaff
2011 GWS Will Hoskin-Elliott
2012 Melbourne Jimmy Toumpas
2013 Western Bulldogs Marcus Bontempelli
2014 GWS Jarrod Pickett
2015 Melbourne Clayton Oliver
2016 Gold Coast Ben Ainsworth
2017 North Melbourne Luke Davies-Uniacke

This exercise is pretty much inconsequential though.

Had Hawthorn had pick #4 in 2004 they still take Franklin.

Had Port had pick #4 in 2011 they still take Wingard.

Had Port had pick #4 in 2012 they still take Wines.

The drafting club is the issue more than any purported curse, such as the one frequently cast on pick #6.

 

[Jonts]

This exercise is pretty much inconsequential though.

Had Hawthorn had pick #4 in 2004 they still take Franklin.

Had Port had pick #4 in 2011 they still take Wingard.

Had Port had pick #4 in 2012 they still take Wines.

The drafting club is the issue more than any purported curse, such as the one frequently cast on pick #6.

do port take Toumpas over wines with 4?
scary thought

 

[Macca19]

nah he is the one everyone wonders how he got to 5-7 in 5 years time

J Selwood of 07 compared to Gibbs

Macrae/Wines compared to Whitfield/O'Rourke

didn't train at 100% all year and is what 25 days off being too young for this draft?

I see it more as Kelly and Bont. They’ll both be great.

 

[Jonts]

I see it more as Kelly and Bont. They’ll both be great.

don't get me wrong, Walsh will be a jet
just smith will be better

 

[240volt]

don't get me wrong, Walsh will be a jet
just smith will be better

If we got both that would cover the half back flanks

 

[Ishikawa]

nah he is the one everyone wonders how he got to 5-7 in 5 years time

J Selwood of 07 compared to Gibbs

Macrae/Wines compared to Whitfield/O'Rourke

didn't train at 100% all year and is what 25 days off being too young for this draft?

I'm a big fan of both Ollie and Macrae but Whitfield has become superior to both.

 

[mic59]

I would give my left nut for either of Walsh or smith. Think they’re both going to wind up their teams best mids

Is that what they call a powerball?

 

[Tibbs]

I'm a big fan of both Ollie and Macrae but Whitfield has become superior to both.

Whitfield has had his best year, but Macrae is just a gun!

 

[Ishikawa]

Whitfield has had his best year, but Macrae is just a gun!

They all are, for mine though I'd still have Whitfield at number one.

 

[Long live PAFC]

So pick 21 could become 23 or 24, and pick 27 could become 30 ish.

Who might be around at those? Are we going to get the player we need at those?

I would have thought Zac Butters, Bailey Williams, James Rowbottom, Sydney Stack, Ryan Clarke all might fit the bill but, at least, the first two won’t be there.