List Mgmt. Draft 2018: Lions 1st (5), Power 1st (10), Hawks 1st (15)

[Malibu#27]

the Swans first round would be ear marked for Nick Blakey (who is rated at a top 8 prospect) in which they will have to upgrade their pick 12 - especially if some one from the bottom group of clubs makes a play for him

it will be interesting to see what they get for Hannebery & or Parker

They only need points for Blakey, hence why their pick is attractive. A couple lower picks worth slightly more points and they will give it up at a guess.

 

[Nihilus]

I think those are optimistic

I would much rather keep picks 21 and 22. There is no one worth trading up for. Maybe hately if he slid but I don’t think that happens.

I would rather keep picks 21 and 22 as well … and ear mark them for = 197cm KPF Hugo Munn & 195cm KPD R. Grundy

(as our young KPP players in the Magpies are almost non existent this year we listed use Toumpas at CHB and listed Neade at CHF) and also remember that in a few years time Hoff will be retired, Ryder will be retired or close to being retired and Dixon / Watts will be close to their 30s

 

[neddy36]

I would take a future 3rd rounder for him. That can work for both teams. We get points for mead next year.

Pittard maybe a late second but more likely a third rounder.

With his current salary and output, Jasper Pittard has negative trade value. What is negative trade value? Basically, you would need to package Pittard with a 3rd round pick and Port would get a 4th rounder in return. The only way Port are getting anywhere close to a 3rd round pick (future or current draft) for Pittard is if they are taking a massive portion of his salary.

 

[Pappagallo]

Yep. I reckon people are getting way too sucked in by the "SA talent" factor. Who gives a **** where they are from, we aren't the Crows. There will still be plenty of talent elsewhere in the draft. I like having 4 picks in the top 27. You are bound to find at least 2 gooduns. We need a new generation coming through, not sell the farm for 1 potential SA star.

Luko, Rankine and Rozee could all conceivably be gone by Pick 5 anyway so it all would’ve been for naught. We should just go with what we have and try to keep our proven SA star on the list, if possible.

 

[JUSTWORK]

Luko, Rankine and Rozee could all conceivably be gone by Pick 5 anyway so it all would’ve been for naught. We should just go with what we have and try to keep our proven SA star on the list, if possible.

It’s possible, but it’s also possible that 2 out of those three. possibly even all three might available.

 

[philthy05]

Caro is wrong about priority picks not playing a role in revival. Look at what they netted Hawthorn, Collingwood, Saint Kilda and Western. Even Melbourne got Hogan somehow despite blowing picks on Scully, Watts, Gysberts and Trengove.

I would rather keep picks 21 and 22 as well … and ear mark them for = 197cm KPF Hugo Munn & 195cm KPD R. Grundy

(as our young KPP players in the Magpies are almost non existent this year we listed use Toumpas at CHB and listed Neade at CHF) and also remember that in a few years time Hoff will be retired, Ryder will be retired or close to being retired and Dixon / Watts will be close to their 30s

That’s way earlier than those kids are expected to go.

We should and could look at kpp in the 3rd or 4th round or rookie draft.

Spend those 2nd rounders on mids.

With his current salary and output, Jasper Pittard has negative trade value. What is negative trade value? Basically, you would need to package Pittard with a 3rd round pick and Port would get a 4th rounder in return. The only way Port are getting anywhere close to a 3rd round pick (future or current draft) for Pittard is if they are taking a massive portion of his salary.

There are hundreds of worse players on afl lists today, and 500k isn’t the salary it used to be.
In fact he would only be owed 2yrs at approx 500k left on his contract. That’s hardly an issue.

He will be at the top 30 players at any club I think and even guys in the 20-30 range of afl lists aren’t going to be getting much less than 500k in 2019 and 2020.

I argued we would not get a 2nd rounder for him but I think some teams will definitely be interested and a 3rd or 4th could be gettable.

 

[Pappagallo]

It’s possible, but it’s also possible that 2 out of those three. possibly even all three might available.

Unlikely though. But even if they were, we circle back to the point Papa G was making in that they’re no more guaranteed to make it than anyone else at this stage. So is it really worth burning a couple of picks in the 20s?

 

[Nihilus]

Yep. I reckon people are getting way too sucked in by the "SA talent" factor. Who gives a **** where they are from, we aren't the Crows. There will still be plenty of talent elsewhere in the draft. I like having 4 picks in the top 27. You are bound to find at least 2 gooduns. We need a new generation coming through, not sell the farm for 1 potential SA star.

One of my big hopes is that we get one of the King brothers (202cm KPP - Ben King)

Our Young KPP stocks besides Marshall, Howard are almost non existent (sure we have Frampton & Ladhams) but this year the Port Magpies listed and played Toumpas at CHB and also listed Neade at CHF. In 2 to 3 years our current KPP Forwards will be retired (or close to it) and we need KPP support for Howard & Marshall

In this draft besides 202cm KPP Ben King, I hope we get 197cm KPF Hugo Munn & 195cm KPD R. Grundy

Imagine the future forward line (& Team) of

FF - B. King Munn ?????
CHF - Farrell, Marshall ?????
C - ????? Wines ?????
CHB DBJ Howard ????
FB - Grundy Clurey Houston

1R - Hayes SPP Atley
inter - Frampton, Drew, Bonner , ????

Emerg. Patmore, Garner

 

[Enviable Tradition]

It’s possible, but it’s also possible that 2 out of those three. possibly even all three might available.

Yeah the SA media always overrated where the SA talent will go

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Nihilus]

That’s way earlier than those kids are expected to go.

We should and could look at kpp in the 3rd or 4th round or rookie draft.

Spend those 2nd rounders on mids.

the last 2 years we have drafted mids (Atley, Drew, Patmore, Garner etc) and we are about to get a several mids over the coming years as father sons - Schofield, Burgoyne x 2 etc

our biggest need is some young KPP to help Marshall & Howard .. prior to us losing key forwards to retirement (Hoff - 31yrs, Ryder 30yrs, Dixon 28yrs & Watts 27yrs)

yes I know it is earlier than they are expected to go but I don't think we can wait we need to get some KPP this year or at worst next year and I don't think we can risk the chance of another team getting them (hence the early picking of them)

 

[JUSTWORK]

Unlikely though. But even if they were, we circle back to the point Papa G was making in that they’re no more guaranteed to make it than anyone else at this stage. So is it really worth burning a couple of picks in the 20s?

I think so, there probably more likley and can probably impact AFL much sooner but certainly not garunteed.

It also is dependent on how many picks we will be making draft night, assuming we will go in the same amount of guys in the senior list as this year and the list changes we have currently made I don’t see us using 6 picks and we currently hold 2 in each of the first 3 rounds so I’m all for trying to turn our first 4 into 4 and 5 and trying to turn 45,46 and Amon into something in the 20s

 

[DaTBird187]

Selling the farm to get SA talent is such a Crows thing. Let them go down that path. Quantity + Quality, not just Quality.

 

[dirty2]

With his current salary and output, Jasper Pittard has negative trade value. What is negative trade value? Basically, you would need to package Pittard with a 3rd round pick and Port would get a 4th rounder in return. The only way Port are getting anywhere close to a 3rd round pick (future or current draft) for Pittard is if they are taking a massive portion of his salary.

Pittard did take a pay cut in his last contract...

 

[chiwigi]

Selling the farm to get SA talent is such a Crows thing. Let them go down that path. Quantity + Quality, not just Quality.

Especially as the two main players we are potentially trading this year are from SA (though I don't believe for a second Wingard will leave).

 

[LP7_]

One of my big hopes is that we get one of the King brothers (202cm KPP - Ben King)

Our Young KPP stocks besides Marshall, Howard are almost non existent (sure we have Frampton & Ladhams) but this year the Port Magpies listed and played Toumpas at CHB and also listed Neade at CHF. In 2 to 3 years our current KPP Forwards will be retired (or close to it) and we need KPP support for Howard & Marshall

In this draft besides 202cm KPP Ben King, I hope we get 197cm KPF Hugo Munn & 195cm KPD R. Grundy

I swear you said all of this about three posts earlier.

 

[LP7_]

our biggest need is some young KPP to help Marshall & Howard .. prior to us losing key forwards to retirement (Hoff - 31yrs, Ryder 30yrs, Dixon 28yrs & Watts 27yrs)

Throw it in a third time for good measure

 

[MrChow]

Selling the farm to get SA talent is such a Crows thing. Let them go down that path. Quantity + Quality, not just Quality.

Nah. Market drives the point / bidding system. In the end if we have a pick 4,20 vs 9,10 - it's kind of the same chance we will get 2 players of x total talent.

The difference is where those players are from, for later list management/value. As long as players are picked true to where they fit in the draft. So if we don't think the SA lads will still be there at 9/10. Then it is worth trading up and down for at least one of them.

 

[OneGreatClub]

their only hope is the Suns and the Suns need of big bodied experienced players for Example:-

The Suns may Give the Hawks the Pick 3 Lynch compo & the May 1st round pick (from Collingwood) pick for a Some experienced Hawk players + pick 14

remember pick 3 = 2234 pts + either pick 18 = 985 or pick 19 is 948 pts

(the picks 17 & 18 will be pushed down to 18 / 19 so pick 19 is 948 pts)

and then the Hawks gives us Pick 3 & the Collingwood pick 18 /19 (with maybe something going back to the hawks say pick 27 - 703pts or pick 45 - 347pts or pick 46 - 331pts)

it looks like this pick 3 & pick 18 = 3219pts for Wingard + pick 27 (703pts) which equals 2516pts worth for Wingard

the pick 3 & 18 satisfies us for 2 x 1st round picks for Wingard (and we upgrade one of our 2nd round picks)

the Hawks might try and only give us picks 14 (their 1st round pick) which is worth 1161pts plus a later first round pick say 18 (985pts) = 2146pts but we must insist that any deal for Wingard includes a High - 1st round pick or we might have to be sure we can swap these 2 picks for a high first round pick (with the Suns) even if we add in a player like Hombsch .. (but I would prefer to let the Hawks do all the work)

 

[philthy05]

the last 2 years we have drafted mids (Atley, Drew, Patmore, Garner etc) and we are about to get a several mids over the coming years as father sons - Schofield, Burgoyne x 2 etc

our biggest need is some young KPP to help Marshall & Howard .. prior to us losing key forwards to retirement (Hoff - 31yrs, Ryder 30yrs, Dixon 28yrs & Watts 27yrs)

yes I know it is earlier than they are expected to go but I don't think we can wait we need to get some KPP this year or at worst next year and I don't think we can risk the chance of another team getting them (hence the early picking of them)

Of those four players only one has played an afl game so far, Garner plays in defense and Patmore as a flanker at the moment.

The f/s you talk about are so far off to consider it’s not worth planning around them.

Ben king you spoke about in another post would be a horrible target. A Vic metro twin whose brother will be in melb and will take years to come good with a high pick?

We definitely need to target more kpp in the draft 100% but we need to do it smartly.

 

[noffle]

Nah. Market drives the point / bidding system. In the end if we have a pick 4,20 vs 9,10 - it's kind of the same chance we will get 2 players of x total talent.

The difference is where those players are from, for later list management/value. As long as players are picked true to where they fit in the draft. So if we don't think the SA lads will still be there at 9/10. Then it is worth trading up and down for at least one of them.

I also don't see how trading for Pick 4 is risky. Picks 9 and 10 are risky - you could get 0 good players or you could get 2 good players. Pick 4 + 20something will probably get you 1 good player.

 

[Jack Grange]

Yep. I reckon people are getting way too sucked in by the "SA talent" factor. Who gives a **** where they are from, we aren't the Crows. There will still be plenty of talent elsewhere in the draft. I like having 4 picks in the top 27. You are bound to find at least 2 gooduns. We need a new generation coming through, not sell the farm for 1 potential SA star.

YES...Absolutely CORRECT...

 

[Crow till I die]

One of my big hopes is that we get one of the King brothers (202cm KPP - Ben King)

Our Young KPP stocks besides Marshall, Howard are almost non existent (sure we have Frampton & Ladhams) but this year the Port Magpies listed and played Toumpas at CHB and also listed Neade at CHF. In 2 to 3 years our current KPP Forwards will be retired (or close to it) and we need KPP support for Howard & Marshall

In this draft besides 202cm KPP Ben King, I hope we get 197cm KPF Hugo Munn & 195cm KPD R. Grundy

Imagine the future forward line (& Team) of

FF - B. King Munn ?????
CHF - Farrell, Marshall ?????
C - ????? Wines ?????
CHB DBJ Howard ????
FB - Grundy Clurey Houston

1R - Hayes SPP Atley
inter - Frampton, Drew, Bonner , ????

Emerg. Patmore, Garner

was just cruising through the boards looking for draft news and saw this.. I have been saying this for a while that the King twins are massively underrated on the boards. As a crow, if it ended up that Luko was gone (most likely) at whatever picks we have, I would have no problems at all taking a King twin. Ben King is in my eyes the natural longer term Talia replacement and if either we get him or you guys do, he will be a great get. I agree with your thoughts entirely here

 

[DaTBird187]

I also don't see how trading for Pick 4 is risky. Picks 9 and 10 are risky - you could get 0 good players or you could get 2 good players. Pick 4 + 20something will probably get you 1 good player.

It's all a risk. Pick 4 has had an awful strike rate.

2000 Carlton Luke Livingston
2001 Fremantle Graham Polak
2002 Western Bulldogs Tim Walsh
2003 Western Bulldogs Farren Ray
2004 Richmond Richard Tambling
2005 Carlton Josh Kennedy
2006 Brisbane Matthew Leuenberger
2007 Melbourne Cale Morton
2008 Port Adelaide Hamish Hartlett
2009 Fremantle Anthony Morabito
2010 West Coast Andrew Gaff
2011 GWS Will Hoskin-Elliott
2012 Melbourne Jimmy Toumpas
2013 Western Bulldogs Marcus Bontempelli
2014 GWS Jarrod Pickett
2015 Melbourne Clayton Oliver
2016 Gold Coast Ben Ainsworth
2017 North Melbourne Luke Davies-Uniacke

 

[Papa G]

It's all a risk. Pick 4 has had an awful strike rate.

2000 Carlton Luke Livingston
2001 Fremantle Graham Polak
2002 Western Bulldogs Tim Walsh
2003 Western Bulldogs Farren Ray
2004 Richmond Richard Tambling
2005 Carlton Josh Kennedy
2006 Brisbane Matthew Leuenberger
2007 Melbourne Cale Morton
2008 Port Adelaide Hamish Hartlett
2009 Fremantle Anthony Morabito
2010 West Coast Andrew Gaff
2011 GWS Will Hoskin-Elliott
2012 Melbourne Jimmy Toumpas
2013 Western Bulldogs Marcus Bontempelli
2014 GWS Jarrod Pickett
2015 Melbourne Clayton Oliver
2016 Gold Coast Ben Ainsworth
2017 North Melbourne Luke Davies-Uniacke

4 Guns
3 or 4 good players, 2-3 okayish players. So yeah, about a 1 in 2 chance of not being a total bust. Not great odds really.

 

[Powerage]

the last 2 years we have drafted mids (Atley, Drew, Patmore, Garner etc) and we are about to get a several mids over the coming years as father sons - Schofield, Burgoyne x 2 etc

our biggest need is some young KPP to help Marshall & Howard .. prior to us losing key forwards to retirement (Hoff - 31yrs, Ryder 30yrs, Dixon 28yrs & Watts 27yrs)

You dare include Watts as a KPP? Chaplin was more of a KPP beast and he was the tarzan that played like Jane.

With a slice of luck we get Lycett who is 25. However I do agree, whether they are traded or drafted we need KPP for depth and the future.