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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
DT 2011 Backs Thread
- Thread starter Thorgils
- Start date
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Dunn - Well Done
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- #78
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
I disagree a Deledio with the potential upside of 96 that plays 21/22 games a year is hard to go pass in the backline, i think he has DP status aswell.
The side will only improve and Deledio hasnt reached his peak yet, quite from it.
Wouldnt suprise me knowing Pumbi that its there other HBF. Although i didnt realwill be priced at 92, shit he scored well last year, no deal for that than.
Dont know to many other richmond defenders that i would be keen on. Newman perhaps, unsure what he avg last year.
I disagree a Deledio with the potential upside of 96 that plays 21/22 games a year is hard to go pass in the backline, i think he has DP status aswell.
The side will only improve and Deledio hasnt reached his peak yet, quite from it.
Wouldnt suprise me knowing Pumbi that its there other HBF. Although i didnt realwill be priced at 92, shit he scored well last year, no deal for that than.
Dont know to many other richmond defenders that i would be keen on. Newman perhaps, unsure what he avg last year.
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
Daniel Connors
last 10 games
95,116,132,123,79,90,89,114,99,81
average 101.8 over last 10
priced at 92 average
Daniel Connors
last 10 games
95,116,132,123,79,90,89,114,99,81
average 101.8 over last 10
priced at 92 average
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
- Banned
- #80
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
Yeah i rate him very highly as a player.
But hes priced to high, for a guy that is known for having no dedication, things may have changed but RISK outways reward with him.
Yeah i rate him very highly as a player.
But hes priced to high, for a guy that is known for having no dedication, things may have changed but RISK outways reward with him.
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
Reward could easily be the 2nd highest highest back behind Goddard, and very unique. One to keep an eye on
Reward could easily be the 2nd highest highest back behind Goddard, and very unique. One to keep an eye on
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
If things have changed I'm interested to know where the real risk lies with picking him? It's unorthadox as every man and his dog jumps on Deledio with the expectation he'll cope just fine with forward tags and such, when we know Connors suits his role well. He'll evolve into it with potential improvement and upside. A pick that defines seasons, rather than just backing the guys everyone else is without a preference. Connors reads 'roughie' all over, but does the 'risk' really outweigh the reward? Certainly not, in this case we could see an average of 100+.
Of course, a solid p/s would help.
If things have changed I'm interested to know where the real risk lies with picking him? It's unorthadox as every man and his dog jumps on Deledio with the expectation he'll cope just fine with forward tags and such, when we know Connors suits his role well. He'll evolve into it with potential improvement and upside. A pick that defines seasons, rather than just backing the guys everyone else is without a preference. Connors reads 'roughie' all over, but does the 'risk' really outweigh the reward? Certainly not, in this case we could see an average of 100+.
Of course, a solid p/s would help.
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
- Banned
- #83
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
Just with Connors he has always been the player that was seen as extremely undedicated at richmond. Hes not great off field which can lead to suspensions ect (not just saying that due to alcohol incident last year, he has had many). Also hes only played 24 games in his career, paying a 92 avg for a 24 game player in a shit team points in all the wrong directions.
Sure if your a risky type of person than hes your man, but i prefer to pick an enright instead and know what im going to get (only example). Also Connors started getting tagged late last year so teams started seeing his impact with his kick that he can have.
Could be a player as you said that separates you from the pack, although a few will take the risk anyway. But i like to know what im getting when im paying big dollars for premiums.
Just with Connors he has always been the player that was seen as extremely undedicated at richmond. Hes not great off field which can lead to suspensions ect (not just saying that due to alcohol incident last year, he has had many). Also hes only played 24 games in his career, paying a 92 avg for a 24 game player in a shit team points in all the wrong directions.
Sure if your a risky type of person than hes your man, but i prefer to pick an enright instead and know what im going to get (only example). Also Connors started getting tagged late last year so teams started seeing his impact with his kick that he can have.
Could be a player as you said that separates you from the pack, although a few will take the risk anyway. But i like to know what im getting when im paying big dollars for premiums.
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
heath shaw was a bit up and down last year. Could get a little bit of time in the middle/ up forward. Normally takes the kickouts form FB and goes to himself.... thoughts?
heath shaw was a bit up and down last year. Could get a little bit of time in the middle/ up forward. Normally takes the kickouts form FB and goes to himself.... thoughts?
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
Heath is a solid option. The problem with Heater in the past few years has been that he has had a high standard deviation and has struggled when he gets that harsh forward tag from a guy like monfries. Therefore people have found that he can be picked up cheaply as the year goes on. No doubt he will be a high scoring back so it is about waiting for the right time to pounce. However, because of when the pies byes are situated this year his value definately increases. He isn't a round 4 or 6 player so that definately makes him more inviting!
Heath is a solid option. The problem with Heater in the past few years has been that he has had a high standard deviation and has struggled when he gets that harsh forward tag from a guy like monfries. Therefore people have found that he can be picked up cheaply as the year goes on. No doubt he will be a high scoring back so it is about waiting for the right time to pounce. However, because of when the pies byes are situated this year his value definately increases. He isn't a round 4 or 6 player so that definately makes him more inviting!
What's everyone's thoughts on Chad Cornes??
Priced at about 63 and most Port supporters on their board seem to think he is still best 22.
Also with Port not having a bye until rd.12 if he can even get his avg up to 80 odd then he will be a prefect trade out come his first bye.
Priced at about 63 and most Port supporters on their board seem to think he is still best 22.
Also with Port not having a bye until rd.12 if he can even get his avg up to 80 odd then he will be a prefect trade out come his first bye.
bombermick
Norm Smith Medallist
He couldn't get into Port's side toward the end of the season. He could improve on his average, but I think there's better picks.
He was injured at the end of last year. I wonder what his role would be, carlile Chaplin and trengove are pretty set in the backline. Watch over Pre season.
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
- Banned
- #89
Ports best 22 aint hard to make, i think an old chad cornes still is best 22. Unsure of his role, although i agree much better options before him.
What are peoples thoughts on R.Murphy, im very keen on him but not to many others seem to be.
What are peoples thoughts on R.Murphy, im very keen on him but not to many others seem to be.
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
Quoted for relevance!
Doing some simple historical standard deviation analysis is invaluable for picking your starting squad. While historical performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance you will definitely help yourself make an informed decision on the players for your team!
Quoted for relevance!
Doing some simple historical standard deviation analysis is invaluable for picking your starting squad. While historical performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance you will definitely help yourself make an informed decision on the players for your team!
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
- Banned
- #91
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
I just question Heath Shaw ever avg enough for next year. With more trades and the game becoming "easier" more premiums able to be picked from the start, it seems you will need you final squad closer to the (top 7 backs and forward, top 6 mids and top 2 rucks). He doesnt look like a 90+ avg type.
I just question Heath Shaw ever avg enough for next year. With more trades and the game becoming "easier" more premiums able to be picked from the start, it seems you will need you final squad closer to the (top 7 backs and forward, top 6 mids and top 2 rucks). He doesnt look like a 90+ avg type.
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
Interpretation of standard deviation (SD) isn't so straight forward. For premium priced players a lower standard deviation equates to higher scoring consistency and thus making it difficult to pick these guys up cheap, (as they rarely get low scores) so making them better off to start with them. However Narkee, I'd like to know how you would interpret a younger player's SD. For example, would it be better to have a higher SD for more 'scope for improvement' (as they can get the big scores) or are there other factors that are far more prevalent (role change, increase in time on ground, points per minute, etc.) than simply looking at SD?
Interpretation of standard deviation (SD) isn't so straight forward. For premium priced players a lower standard deviation equates to higher scoring consistency and thus making it difficult to pick these guys up cheap, (as they rarely get low scores) so making them better off to start with them. However Narkee, I'd like to know how you would interpret a younger player's SD. For example, would it be better to have a higher SD for more 'scope for improvement' (as they can get the big scores) or are there other factors that are far more prevalent (role change, increase in time on ground, points per minute, etc.) than simply looking at SD?
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
- Banned
- #93
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
SD is really relevant to much for younger players.
People like to have premiums who have a low SD start in there squad because they cant be picked up latar by yourself, so therefore needed from the start
Players with high SD (H.Shaw, example) means they can be picked up later and shouldnt really be started with, although every premium drops in price throughout the year and has a low scoring patch.
SD is really relevant to much for younger players.
People like to have premiums who have a low SD start in there squad because they cant be picked up latar by yourself, so therefore needed from the start
Players with high SD (H.Shaw, example) means they can be picked up later and shouldnt really be started with, although every premium drops in price throughout the year and has a low scoring patch.
Pumbi
Club Legend
Pumbi
Club Legend
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
SD should be used in conjunction with many other things. For younger players (as mentioned), or key position players it is good to be able to see that they have the upside to a great potential score. Likewise, it is also good to see players can increase their output significantly when they get midfield time, or get flicked into a HB quarterback role - these role changes may only be for a few weeks or even quarters due to injuries or suspensions to players who normally play these roles, leading to a high SD.
A good example of SD is this: Someone like Zaharakis is very consistent - he averaged low 70s in 2010, yet didnt score a tonne. Now, who would you say has more upside? The guy who goes 70/70/70 every 3 games, or the guy who goes 50/50/110. Both have the same average, yet one seems to have a bigger upside. This gives the indication, but further research needs to be done into the 110 - did he kick a big bag? Did he play a different role? Did he get more game time due to an injury?
Another might be giansiracusa. You see he has a big SD after a volatile 2010, but does this mean upside? Further investigation shows he scored well when playing full time in the midfield, and a look at their list shows they have recruited a solid midfielder or two, whilst their injury list shows a couple of midfielders are flying (eg Higgins) who had limited impact in the middle in 2010. So though he has the potential for some massive scores and obviously has upside, the force behind these scores isnt as strong anymore, so he isnt a viable option.
Then you have the typical heath shaw scenario, who's average of 80-85 is worth a lot less than a guy who scores that every single week.
So, high SD is typically a negative attribute for those you consider premiums or keepers, but it can also be a leading indicator for a breakout player. That said, this shouldnt be used as the sole determinent in picking a player - in either case.
SD should be used in conjunction with many other things. For younger players (as mentioned), or key position players it is good to be able to see that they have the upside to a great potential score. Likewise, it is also good to see players can increase their output significantly when they get midfield time, or get flicked into a HB quarterback role - these role changes may only be for a few weeks or even quarters due to injuries or suspensions to players who normally play these roles, leading to a high SD.
A good example of SD is this: Someone like Zaharakis is very consistent - he averaged low 70s in 2010, yet didnt score a tonne. Now, who would you say has more upside? The guy who goes 70/70/70 every 3 games, or the guy who goes 50/50/110. Both have the same average, yet one seems to have a bigger upside. This gives the indication, but further research needs to be done into the 110 - did he kick a big bag? Did he play a different role? Did he get more game time due to an injury?
Another might be giansiracusa. You see he has a big SD after a volatile 2010, but does this mean upside? Further investigation shows he scored well when playing full time in the midfield, and a look at their list shows they have recruited a solid midfielder or two, whilst their injury list shows a couple of midfielders are flying (eg Higgins) who had limited impact in the middle in 2010. So though he has the potential for some massive scores and obviously has upside, the force behind these scores isnt as strong anymore, so he isnt a viable option.
Then you have the typical heath shaw scenario, who's average of 80-85 is worth a lot less than a guy who scores that every single week.
So, high SD is typically a negative attribute for those you consider premiums or keepers, but it can also be a leading indicator for a breakout player. That said, this shouldnt be used as the sole determinent in picking a player - in either case.
SD will often be aligned to the role the player plays.
Any player playing deep forward is subject to a high SD purely because their scoring will be dependent on how the team performs (ie how often the ball is in their area) and their opponent. Barry Hall a perfect example.
Kids often have high SDs because their TOG can fluctuate and their mental capacity to adjust to AFL is still developing along with their engine.
Quaterbacks have a high SD because of forward tags which are applied often but not every week.
Lakeys example of Gia last year was interesting. Gia had multiple different roles throughout the year ranging from free running midfielder to shut down forward tagger. Obviously the role will impact the scoring.
Franklin last year a good example of a player whose role has changed resulting in a lower SD. In 2008 Buddy played closer to goal, had 5 scores over 120 and 7 scores of 80 or less for an average of 96. Last year he only went under 80 3 times and once over 120 but averaged 99. All due to playing higher up the ground, in the play more often = more consistency. He was part of the link going forward instead of the end of the chain.
Any player playing deep forward is subject to a high SD purely because their scoring will be dependent on how the team performs (ie how often the ball is in their area) and their opponent. Barry Hall a perfect example.
Kids often have high SDs because their TOG can fluctuate and their mental capacity to adjust to AFL is still developing along with their engine.
Quaterbacks have a high SD because of forward tags which are applied often but not every week.
Lakeys example of Gia last year was interesting. Gia had multiple different roles throughout the year ranging from free running midfielder to shut down forward tagger. Obviously the role will impact the scoring.
Franklin last year a good example of a player whose role has changed resulting in a lower SD. In 2008 Buddy played closer to goal, had 5 scores over 120 and 7 scores of 80 or less for an average of 96. Last year he only went under 80 3 times and once over 120 but averaged 99. All due to playing higher up the ground, in the play more often = more consistency. He was part of the link going forward instead of the end of the chain.
Wheedus
Team Captain
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
Not touching Heater again. He shat me last season - bloody yo yo!
Not touching Heater again. He shat me last season - bloody yo yo!
Wheedus
Team Captain
Re: 2011 Backs Thread
Also, low SD is probably more important if you're going for a League win.
Also, low SD is probably more important if you're going for a League win.
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