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North2.50Carlton1.67 Dogs2.00West Coast2.00 Geelong1.11Melbourne10.00 Gold Coast6.67St Kilda1.18 Fremantle2.22Hawthorn1.82 Collingwood1.11Essendon10.00 Adelaide1.67Port2.50


Judging by my markets, North at 3.50 and Freo at 2.85 are my plays for the week. May reassess if McPharlin doesn't end up getting off and may wind them out to 2.50 making them a potential no-play.

Initially had the Showdown as a 50/50 game but Craig quiting tips the scales in the Crows favour IMO.

Like North, who do seem to play well against the Blues, would have won the last 7 against them if they didn't kick 0.9 to 2.3 in the last quarter two games ago.
 

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Lenny29 said:
Confidence is low.

WB $1.85
WC $2.18

Freo $1.90
Haw $2.11

Adel $2.05
Port $1.95
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I'd like to see those odds as all my preferences are overs. :D
What's your reasoning for WC, hawks and Adelaide, as I (in my infinite wisdom :p) have picked all three to be far lower, especially Hawthorn.
Some people really seem to be on the Freo angle, do the Hawks not play well out west?
 
KardiniaPark said:
You are comparing the Bottom 8 Hawthorn team of the last few years to this one? They will win by at least 6 goals, big let down after last week for the Dockers. Hawks are the 2nd best team in the comp by a space, I just don't see any way they can lose.
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LOL

Um........No:eek:
 
No way Hawthorn are ahead of Geelong.

You could be right re Hawthorn's odds this week, I'm still not comfortable with them on the road full stop - apart from the Swans game they've not impressed on the road this year. Happy to take them on.
 
KardiniaPark said:
3rd behind Norf ? :eek:

IMO Collingwood > Hawthorn > West Coast/Geelong > Carlton

I didnt think I was making a huge statement who do you think is 2nd?

We might agree on something one day.
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Lol :D It is CLEARLY Collingwood > Geelong > Haw/WC/Carl

Cats are equal on top for points and 3 games clear of Hawthorn! Hawks are only one game clear of WC and half a game clear of Carlton.

How anyone could have Hawks ahead of Cats is laughable :eek:
 

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Based on current form Hawks are way out in front of Geelong but we have all seen Geelong do this before and I'd expect they start peaking again in Round 22/3.*

* Much like yesterday we are going to pretend that Richmond don't exist.
 
Borgsta said:
Based on current form Hawks are way out in front of Geelong but we have all seen Geelong do this before and I'd expect they start peaking again in Round 22/3.*

* Much like yesterday we are going to pretend that Richmond don't exist.
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Geelong dropped off for a couple weeks on intensity but that doesnt mean Hawthorn are now rated above them (I know YOU didnt say that, just saying)
 
Lenny29 said:
Pfft. Hawthorn will get 5 goals up, Geelong will come back and win by 1-3 goals. Like every time in the past few years (bar the choke)
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OK firstly we didnt choke, they cheated. It would be just like Hawthorn to lose to us for 3 years and then beat us in a final. In fact I can almost guarantee thats what will happen but this year I dont mind SO much because I think they are a better team (unlike when they cheated).

They cheated, shuttup.
 
KardiniaPark said:
OK firstly we didnt choke, they cheated. It would be just like Hawthorn to lose to us for 3 years and then beat us in a final. In fact I can almost guarantee thats what will happen but this year I dont mind SO much because I think they are a better team (unlike when they cheated).

They cheated, shuttup.
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LOL They cheated?? What by rushing behinds? You Geelong supporters better hope you beat the Hawks in the finals this year because beating the Hawks (the last 6 times or whatever it is) since that grandfinal doesnt mean a thing If you cant beat them in the Finals. All the pressure will be on Geelong If they play Hawthorn in the finals this year.
 
Lenny29 said:
Confidence is low.

NM $3.00
Carl $1.50

WB $1.85
WC $2.18

Geel $1.10
Melb $11

GC $7.67
St K $1.15

Freo $1.90
Haw $2.11

Coll $1.15
Ess $7.67

Adel $2.05
Port $1.95
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 [FONT=&quot] i understand you have given a percentage chance of winning [/FONT]to each team and then converted this into odds but i don't understand how you are getting the percentage e.g hawks 48%. is this just a guess/rough estimate or have you calculated the percentage using stats in a database that gives you a number.
 
carpsi said:
LOL They cheated?? What by rushing behinds? You Geelong supporters better hope you beat the Hawks in the finals this year because beating the Hawks (the last 6 times or whatever it is) since that grandfinal doesnt mean a thing If you cant beat them in the Finals. All the pressure will be on Geelong If they play Hawthorn in the finals this year.
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Yes unsportsmanlike and they should be stripped of the premiership. Im glad you agree! We won't beat Hawthorn in a final, i'm not sure why everyone is so down on their chances. They have 4-5 genuine superstars and the rest of the team is far stronger than 2008 having added Suckling, Savage, Shiels and players like Guerra finding a new level. They even have a better Ruckman. Besides Crawford most of what they lost was dead wood anyway. They have had a refresh for 2 years unlike Geelong who have been up FOREVER and Collingwood dont forget have been close since 2007 as well. Its a long time to be at your peak. Hawthorn can beat Collingwood I have no doubt.
 
paul23 said:

[FONT=&quot] i understand you have given a percentage chance of winning [/FONT]to each team and then converted this into odds but i don't understand how you are getting the percentage e.g hawks 48%. is this just a guess/rough estimate or have you calculated the percentage using stats in a database that gives you a number.
Click to expand...
Nah rough guess based off of research and gut feel.
 

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