Early Markets

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Vince Masuka

Vince Masuka

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May 3, 2011
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Jump in and set your own early markets for the AFL's upcoming rounds. I set my markets to 100% as explained in the newb to betting thread, so will post my early thoughts in a minute or two.

This can be an ongoing thread, seperate from the weekly AFL threads.
 
St Kilda 1.18
Adelaide 6.50

Kangaroos 1.20
Brisbane 6.00

Sydney 1.70
Bulldogs 2.40

Gold Coast 21.00
Collingwood 1.04

Essendon 2.30
Carlton 1.75

Geelong 1.04
Richmond 21.00

Melbourne 9.00
Hawthorn 1.12

Fremantle 2.20
West Coast 1.83
 

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St Kilda 1.11
Adelaide 10.00

North Melbourne 1.10
Brisbane 11.00

Sydney 1.65
Bulldogs 2.54

Gold Coast 11.00
Collingwood 1.10
(although I don't bet on Pies games)

Essendon 2.11
Carlton 1.90

Geelong 1.14
Richmond 8.33

Melbourne 3.50
Hawthorn 1.40

Fremantle 2.33
West Coast 1.75
 
Think I may give this one a crack too. I have used Lenny's way of setting a market at 100% by working out each team's percentage chance of winning, then calculating odds by doing 1/%. Obviously the odds for GC and the Tigers are miles above what any agency will offer, but have just gone by my calculations to the tee. Percentages are included.

St Kilda 85% - 1.18
Adelaide 15% - 6.67

Sydney 55% - 1.82
Dogs 45% - 2.22

North 75% - 1.33
Brisbane 25% - 4.00

Essendon 40% - 2.50
Carlton 60% - 1.67

Gold Coast 2% - 50
Collingwood 98% - 1.02

Geelong 95% - 1.05
Richmond 5% - 20

Melbourne 30% - 3.33
Hawthorn 70% - 1.43

Fremantle 45% - 2.22
West Coast 55% - 1.81
 
St Kilda - 1.25
Adelaide - 5.00

North Melbourne - 1.33
Brisbane - 4.00

Sydney - 1.66
Western Bulldogs - 2.50

Collingwood - 1.02
Gold Coast - 17.00

Essendon - 2.85
Carlton - 1.53

Geelong - 1.17
Richmond - 6.60

Melbourne - 2.85
Hawthorn - 1.53

Fremantle - 2.22
West Coast - 1.81
 
St Kilda 1.15
Adelaide 7.50

North Melbourne 1.20
Brisbane 6.00

Sydney 1.90
Western Bulldogs 2.10

Gold Coast 15.00
Collingwood 1.01

Essendon 2.25
Carlton 1.75

Geelong 1.10
Richmond 8.00

Melbourne 3.50
Hawthorn 1.35

Fremantle 2.20
West Coast 1.80
 
Saints $1.20 v Adelaide $4.25

North $1.18 v Lions $5.50

Sydney $1.85 v Western Bullies $1.90

Gold Coast $13.00 v Collingwood $1.03

Essendon $2.25 v Carlton $1.50

Geelong $1.07 v Richmond $9.00

Melbourne $2.20 v Hawthorn $1.53

Fremantle $1.90 v West Coast $1.85
 
midnight_toker said:
Saints $1.20 v Adelaide $4.25

North $1.18 v Lions $5.50

Sydney $1.85 v Western Bullies $1.90

Gold Coast $13.00 v Collingwood $1.03

Essendon $2.25 v Carlton $1.50

Geelong $1.07 v Richmond $9.00

Melbourne $2.20 v Hawthorn $1.53

Fremantle $1.90 v West Coast $1.85
Click to expand...
You have percentages that are a little more than %100.

That is fine, but you will find you will have more 'overs' but not neccesarily value. You haven't allowed for the discrepancy over a bookies odds to seek out the value when they put their markets up.
 
Vince Masuka said:
You have percentages that are a little more than %100.

That is fine, but you will find you will have more 'overs' but not neccesarily value. You haven't allowed for the discrepancy over a bookies odds to seek out the value when they put their markets up.
Click to expand...


Newby question...

Will one team in each match likely to be over or both with one well over?
 
midnight_toker said:
Newby question...

Will one team in each match likely to be over or both with one well over?
Click to expand...
That depends on your market and when you have it set to %100 you will never have both sides as overs.

Take your West Coast Freo market, if they open up 1.92 for them both, which one do you back?

Get into the habit of setting to %100 and then you will have clear cut value for one team at stages, or you are likely to have no value for either team, which means there is no value in the bookies odds compared to yours. This means a no bet game.
 

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Never tried doing this before, usually just go off feel. Likely to surprise myself with some silly odds :D

St Kilda 85% $1.18
Adelaide 15% $6.67

North Melb 80% $1.25
Brisbane 20% $5.00

Sydney 60% $1.67
Western Bulldogs 40% 2.50

Gold Coast 5% $20.00
Collingwood 95% $1.05

Essendon 40% $2.50
Carlton 60% $1.67

Geelong 75% $1.33
Richmond 25% $4.00

Melbourne 20% $5.00
Hawthorn 80% $1.25

Fremantle 40% $2.50
West Coast 60% $1.67
 
St Kilda v Adelaide (Etihad Stad)

Probability St Kilda 79.7% Adelaide 20.3%
Fair Odds St Kilda $1.26 Adelaide $4.92
Forecast St Kilda by 37 points

Nth Melbourne v Brisbane (Etihad Stad)

Probability Nth Melbourne 75.8% Brisbane 24.2%
Fair Odds Nth Melbourne $1.32 Brisbane $4.13
Forecast Nth Melbourne by 31 points

Sydney v Wstn Bulldogs (SCG)

Probability Sydney 60.6% Wstn Bulldogs 39.4%
Fair Odds Sydney $1.65 Wstn Bulldogs $2.54
Forecast Sydney by 12 points

Gold Coast v Collingwood (Metricon Stad)

Probability Gold Coast 1.5% Collingwood 98.5%
Fair Odds Gold Coast $65.00 Collingwood $1.02
Forecast Collingwood by 96 points

Essendon v Carlton (MCG)

Probability Essendon 32.3% Carlton 67.7%
Fair Odds Essendon $3.10 Carlton $1.48
Forecast Carlton by 21 points

Geelong v Richmond (Etihad Stad)

Probability Geelong 86.0% Richmond 14.0%
Fair Odds Geelong $1.16 Richmond $7.14
Forecast Geelong by 48 points

Melbourne v Hawthorn (MCG)

Probability Melbourne 26.8% Hawthorn 73.2%
Fair Odds Melbourne $3.74 Hawthorn $1.37
Forecast Hawthorn by 28 points

Fremantle v West Coast (Patersons Stad)

Probability Fremantle 26.8% West Coast 73.2%
Fair Odds Fremantle $3.74 West Coast $1.37
Forecast West Coast by 27 points
 
JuddyBuddy said:
Can someone explain this whole 100% thing and how bookies usually set odds? It's probably obvious, but I'm tired and cbf trying to figure it out on my own :p
Click to expand...
Each price for a team represents a percentage.

The bookies set markets at around 105-106%.

To work out what price = what percentage, just divide the price into 100.

2.50 = 40%

Then you set your markets to 100% so that you can take advantage of any value that you find. If you set them above 100% you won't be getting value.

Does that help mate?
 
Resarenco said:
St Kilda v Adelaide (Etihad Stad)

Probability St Kilda 79.7% Adelaide 20.3%
Fair Odds St Kilda $1.26 Adelaide $4.92
Forecast St Kilda by 37 points

Nth Melbourne v Brisbane (Etihad Stad)

Probability Nth Melbourne 75.8% Brisbane 24.2%
Fair Odds Nth Melbourne $1.32 Brisbane $4.13
Forecast Nth Melbourne by 31 points

Sydney v Wstn Bulldogs (SCG)

Probability Sydney 60.6% Wstn Bulldogs 39.4%
Fair Odds Sydney $1.65 Wstn Bulldogs $2.54
Forecast Sydney by 12 points

Gold Coast v Collingwood (Metricon Stad)

Probability Gold Coast 1.5% Collingwood 98.5%
Fair Odds Gold Coast $65.00 Collingwood $1.02
Forecast Collingwood by 96 points

Essendon v Carlton (MCG)

Probability Essendon 32.3% Carlton 67.7%
Fair Odds Essendon $3.10 Carlton $1.48
Forecast Carlton by 21 points

Geelong v Richmond (Etihad Stad)

Probability Geelong 86.0% Richmond 14.0%
Fair Odds Geelong $1.16 Richmond $7.14
Forecast Geelong by 48 points

Melbourne v Hawthorn (MCG)

Probability Melbourne 26.8% Hawthorn 73.2%
Fair Odds Melbourne $3.74 Hawthorn $1.37
Forecast Hawthorn by 28 points

Fremantle v West Coast (Patersons Stad)

Probability Fremantle 26.8% West Coast 73.2%
Fair Odds Fremantle $3.74 West Coast $1.37
Forecast West Coast by 27 points
Click to expand...


Bahahahaha you need to stop posting on this forum. This isnt your market at all you loser. You just copied and pasted it from here didnt you?

http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RoundForecast/2011_Round_18
 
St Kilda 1.23
Adelaide 5.26

Kangaroos 1.28
Brisbane 4.55

Sydney 1.85
Bulldogs 2.17

Gold Coast 25.00
Collingwood 1.04

Essendon 2.17
Carlton 1.85

Geelong 1.11
Richmond 10.00

Melbourne 5.00
Hawthorn 1.25

Fremantle 2.63
West Coast 1.61
 

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