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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Emirates Stakes Day
- Thread starter iluvparis
- Start date
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LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
For mine he is the best value in the race. the favourite is serious unders. It might win but I aint bothering at $2.25, and Lankan Rupee was so lucky to win last start, at $5 I wouldn't be bothering and is is horrible form. LR at its best wins its last 2 starts by lengths. Probably more at $6-7 chance. I am more leaning towards Terravista. You don't go from a favourite in the Manikato Stakes where it had every excuse in the book to being no hope on a course that should suit it more.
Trifecta boxed
Terravista
LR
Chautaqua
Slade Power
Terrivista to win. Save on LR as at his best i RATE THE HORSE. At this stage that is the way I am going.
- Apr 26, 2007
- 4,801
- 2,670
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Added to the way it was run also in that Lankan had to cross early from the carpark*
I think it'll be a bit closer than many on here expect. There's a pretty even bunch of sprinters in Australia at the moment, and many have had no luck this prep. I still have Chatauqua on top given the times it has been running, but cant have it if it gets much shorter.
*Using the carpark as an excuse for a bad gate at Moonee Valley doesnt really work
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Anyone having any luck in narrowing down the field in the Emirites Stakes? Could be dead set a field job in the quaddie the way I'm going? I like Bull Point but I backed it the time before and it wasn't that great from memory.
JuddsABlue
Norm Smith Medallist
Terravista was a false favourite in the Manikato imo, and the price drift it suffered was confirmation.
Had some great runs in the leadup but hadnt met the class of Buffering and LR. I'll give that he came home strong, performed better than I had imagined but would much rather Buffering at their current prices
Had some great runs in the leadup but hadnt met the class of Buffering and LR. I'll give that he came home strong, performed better than I had imagined but would much rather Buffering at their current prices
JuddsABlue
Norm Smith Medallist
Thoughts on the Cleaner? it was a whippingh boy for everyone in the leadup to the Cox plate, spent all its tickets from the bad gate to get forward and finished where everyone imagined
Now stepping down in class of the field and coming back in distance, at $15 could it still be suffering from the hate of the CP and be a real chance in this?
Now stepping down in class of the field and coming back in distance, at $15 could it still be suffering from the hate of the CP and be a real chance in this?
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Surely at $12-13 Terrivista is worth a flutter though. Not talking a big amount but $10 EW on the hope that Chautaqua and LR fall over is worth it. Not as if LR is in stellar form itself.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Like about 15 runners, the Cleaner could easily win.
Don't think so at Flemington. I think some of these are too classy for The Cleaner. A place chance definitely but not a winner IMO. Would need to perform a Desert War like gut running win (now he was a horse!) As much as I hate backing a Gai horse
So the two favourites fall over and the last start group 1 winner is badly out of form winning a Group 1 at an unsuitable track. All sounds good to me, i'm on the Terravista train TOOT TOOT!
JuddsABlue
Norm Smith Medallist
Buffering lost by a head to LR at MV in the Manikato (but didnt run a place), after taking the wider route around the bend after both of them were jousting each other all the way for position
I see no reason for the buff to drift as far as he has after that run
Theres just a lot of unsurities in this race
Is LR under performing?
Will LR improve at Flemington
How much did Buffs injury effect his form in the Manikato, if at all?
Is Chaquata too short or as easy as a bet as others say?
What did we learn from Terravista in the Manikato?
What can we take from the Manikato?
What is the straight going to do to a few of these?
Given all of these, when I look at Buffering at $14 I just think its way overs. Buff is proven at this track distance and class, and had 'excuses' last time and lost by a head. Will LR gain lengths on him at the Valley? We wont know until race day, but if Buffering is fighting it out at the line, people may be looking at each other wondering how they let $14 go on it
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
It is a sprint, so many of them run into hurdles. As I said I expect the favourite to win, I do. However in the event that it gets blocked, or whatever, I want to have a bit of a saver. I'd rather have the small savers on LR and Terravista who are good value. Although LR at $5 is too short. Waiting for it to get out to $6 at least.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Buffering is in my multiples, probably in my first 4/trifecta though. Just think it is a big ask. That said one of my favourite horses, never has a bad day out. Would love it to win.
Waiting for sportsbet powered up odds tommorow AM to get on LR
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Thanks, i'll be sure to cross TV off my list then
Terravista will either almost win it or not even get close, but I still feel there is potential with the horse though. Whether it is tomorrow is the question though. Only going to have a few bets here and there tomorrow, probably plan on spending $200 all up, so a fairly light day.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Is that happening? If so when? I want those odds too.
We all saw what happened to RE dropping back in the same prep. However, with the speed coming from TC, Hooked looks good value, lapped up the pace last start
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
wut??
Just the time thats all. Just remember the earlier big races (this year) being the last race of the day thats all. It is fine though. Just a personal preference in terms of the last race of the card being the main race, but it isn't a big deal.
- Apr 26, 2007
- 4,801
- 2,670
- AFL Club
- Essendon
As I said earlier, this is normal. Outside of last year's Cox Plate (which they realised was a travisty) I dont remember any other big race being the last race of the day? Happy to be proven wrong though.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Could have been last year I was thinking of. Not that big a deal anyway. I don't mind either way. I play soccer at 11:30, so I'm done by 1pm anyway. Doesn't bother me whether it is 3pm or 5pm. Just love having a punt before I go out on Saturday night lol
LR ran a 34.25 first 600 in the Manikato. huge run, great performance just to hang on.
Every excuse in the book? pa-leease
, was held up momentarily. Rebel Dane had far worse luck yet still beat TV home, likewise, FS who was chopped out terribly at the start, was a length behind TV after straightening when TV was already clear and STILL finished ahead him.
