Emirates Stakes Day

[RWnBluey]

Just the time thats all. Just remember the earlier big races (this year) being the last race of the day thats all. It is fine though. Just a personal preference in terms of the last race of the card being the main race, but it isn't a big deal.

WTF?? what are you on about? So the only race you've watched this year is the CC?

 

[RWnBluey]

Good year...I always have to work that day...every single year. You would swear the blokes at work just try and slap me. I take Melbourne Cup Day off, but generally speaking I work 1 Saturday in 4.

I envy these people.

 

[Jugada]

The Cleaner was great in the Cox Plate, he did an absolute power of work and the fact he didn't finish tailed off 10L last was very brave.

Flemington doesn't suit him as well and the Emirates is traditionally a high pressure race so it will be tough. At the odds though I'll still be backing him as its overs for a horse who ran well in a Cox plate

 

[KardiniaPark]

It is a sprint, so many of them run into hurdles. As I said I expect the favourite to win, I do. However in the event that it gets blocked, or whatever, I want to have a bit of a saver. I'd rather have the small savers on LR and Terravista who are good value. Although LR at $5 is too short. Waiting for it to get out to $6 at least.

They have hurdles down the straight now? Bloody hell, that does make things interesting.

 

[RU_]

Geez i'm hopeless at picking the greyhounds and i'm not gonna try ever again, but I can generally pick a horse to place. Making up the few dollars I lost last night right now

 

[KardiniaPark]

Have you stopped betting since you opened that account yesterday?

 

[Jugada]

Have you stopped betting since you opened that account yesterday?

His first bet he picked 1st and 2nd. They got him hooked for life

 

[RU_]

Have you stopped betting since you opened that account yesterday?

It's slightly addicting . I only chucked the $5 in though and I won't chuck anymore in, just having a throw around until I relocate and get back to working

 

[RU_]

His first bet he picked 1st and 2nd. They got him hooked for life

First two bets I managed that!

 

[bombers21]

The Cleaner can do a Happy Trails and win it coming back in distance from the cox plate

 

[FallingLiefs]

Cleaner will find the drop back 440m much harder than HTs 40m back at flemington. 1600 at MV and a full prep aimed towards the mile I would nearly have cleaner on top in this, different story on Saturday. As of now Leebaz will be the one I'm risking in the mile, not sold that last run helps at all.

Also the thought that LR was lucky is borderline idiotic, superb run. can make excuses for half he field in that race but he was just as good if not better than most. Good luck to anyone taking the manikato form, it's toxic trying to pick one from that.

 

[bombers21]

Cleaner will find the drop back 440m much harder than HTs 40m back at flemington. 1600 at MV and a full prep aimed towards the mile I would nearly have cleaner on top in this, different story on Saturday. As of now Leebaz will be the one I'm risking in the mile, not sold that last run helps at all.

Also the thought that LR was lucky is borderline idiotic, superb run. can make excuses for half he field in that race but he was just as good if not better than most. Good luck to anyone taking the manikato form, it's toxic trying to pick one from that.

Sorry I meant when Happy Trail won the Emirates in 2012 coming off the 440 drop

 

[iluvparis]

Yes!

OK iluvparis here is my crazy theory, and it CAN be crazy when its $81...

- He's a Group 1 winner only 3 starts ago, he doesn't know what odds he was. He was good enough to win, that means more than his SP.
- Why is he suddenly up to 1600m after not racing at that distance for three years?
- They must have had this race on their mind for a while (I know.. everyone is aimed for these races) to throw him in straight up to 1600m 3rd up.
- Has he had some of the brilliance taken off to be peaking here at 1600m instead of the usual 1200-1400m? Does that explain the last two starts? Which he was not smashed in like you said.
- First up he was wasn't far off Bounding which is hardly terrible form.
- Second up he was three and four wide the entire trip and was given no hope at all and a complete forget.
- Third up he's usually at his best winning 3 o r4 from 6.

Not sure if Punting or SRP board.

Nah - in all honesty that all might be possible - but when I look at him I see a horse who fluked a G1 win in the Qld Winter - hasn't got near it since and now carries top weight in Melbourne's premier 1600m Hcp. It just doesn't scream winning chance to me. If he was so good over 1600m why hasn't he tried it for 3 years!?!

The one stat I'll give you is the 3rd up one - straight into the quaddie on that alone

 

[iluvparis]

Just peoples thoughts on Cluster? He gets back so far in his races but flies home every time. Does the fact its a straight race help or hinder him? I really think he's got a big race in him. He's had a break since the Rupert Clark where he stormed home from the back for 5th. Will have a nibble on him @ $34/$8 but would like you blokes opinion also...

Has form around Bull Point who has been storming home also and I think is a good EW chance on Sat.

Chautauqua
Rebel Dane
Cluster
Lankan Rupee
Slade Power

Tri

Personally doubt if form around Bull Point will be anywhere near good enough to win this race. Has a decent class edge to make up for mine.

 

[iluvparis]

Terravista was a false favourite in the Manikato imo, and the price drift it suffered was confirmation.

Had some great runs in the leadup but hadnt met the class of Buffering and LR. I'll give that he came home strong, performed better than I had imagined but would much rather Buffering at their current prices

Agree with the above 100% re Terravista

 

[iluvparis]

iluvparis A penny for your thoughts.

I thought he was quite good in the Cox plate.

Please - he was average - a whole bunch of them finished together and he was one of the 3 or 4 that was trunding in after them - as expected. If it was trained by Gai you would be saying it was her standard Melbourne shocker.

Complete afterthought race and I reckon he'll be gone at the 400 at the latest.

 

[Tippaz]

i'm torn between Hooked and Bull Point

both are around the $9 mark which means you'd really have to back em for a win
Chris Waller and Damien Oliver is a good combination for Bull Point but he can't find a win this prep
i like Craig Williams aboard Hooked (should get a good run behind The Cleaner) but he's got 2kg more than Bull Point
thinking of doing $5 WIN on both plus $1 QUIN but will probably change my mind in the morning

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Lay of the day time:

Anything in race 2 not named Cadillac Mountain

Has run some excellent closing sectionals in his two runs this prep. First up run with form around lucky hussler, absolutely flying home from well back. Second up stayed at a simlar distance which didn't suit but again ran home very strongly. The form out of that little Geelong race has stood up very well.

Step up to 2000, perfect, firm track, beautiful, long Flemington straight, nothing better.

Only luck beats him. Current $5 still a spoil. EW to nothing.

 

[Gavin Excell]

is Big Memory a special? form certainly is

 

[iluvparis]

is Big Memory a special? form certainly is

Would assume Noble Protector is a huge danger.

 

[JuddsABlue]

i'm torn between Hooked and Bull Point

both are around the $9 mark which means you'd really have to back em for a win
Chris Waller and Damien Oliver is a good combination for Bull Point but he can't find a win this prep
i like Craig Williams aboard Hooked (should get a good run behind The Cleaner) but he's got 2kg more than Bull Point
thinking of doing $5 WIN on both plus $1 QUIN but will probably change my mind in the morning

I think Oliver may be suspended?

 

[XXX KINGS]

At 21/1 famous Seamus deserves an ew bet at minimum. Got checked horribly at the start in manikato and finished like a house on fire, which it does every race. Barrier position should suit him perfectly tomorrow, will get a choice of either side of track. No reason why can't beat all be horses in the manikato field with a bit of luck, horse has an extra gear when it gets to the end.

 

[abs_of_STEELE]

I think Oliver may be suspended?

Suspension starts after tomorrow.

 

[iluvparis]

At 21/1 famous Seamus deserves an ew bet at minimum. Got checked horribly at the start in manikato and finished like a house on fire, which it does every race. Barrier position should suit him perfectly tomorrow, will get a choice of either side of track. No reason why can't beat all be horses in the manikato field with a bit of luck, horse has an extra gear when it gets to the end.

As stated earlier in thread - will be hugely surprised if he is good enough to win a race of this depth. His best ever run (last start - possibly dodgy race?) is still below what LR has recorded at his last two starts - which is lengths below his best.

Happy to leave him out of everything myself.

 

[Ricketts]

Lay of the day time:

Anything in race 2 not named Cadillac Mountain

Has run some excellent closing sectionals in his two runs this prep. First up run with form around lucky hussler, absolutely flying home from well back. Second up stayed at a simlar distance which didn't suit but again ran home very strongly. The form out of that little Geelong race has stood up very well.

Step up to 2000, perfect, firm track, beautiful, long Flemington straight, nothing better.

Only luck beats him. Current $5 still a spoil. EW to nothing.

Was going to write the same thing. My best of the day too. Peaks third up to 2000m, and the form out of both his first two runs this prep is strong.