English Premier League - 2011/12

[Borgsta]

He got 4% return over 10 years. Also he didn't actually get 4% he adjusted the figures to do that.

Performance of favourites of odds 1.20 or lower

If you had bet £1 on every club favoured at odds of 1.20 over the last 10 seasons

well not every one is 1.20, some are 1.10 / 1.15 so nice skewing of the stats there.

Oh and it has happened 521 times in 10 years. Good luck putting on 300 bets in 1 year.

 

[Ill Chicken]

I've seen lifetimes on many accounts and some of them are awesome. One of the best being an account that only deposited once and has taken out over 500k in eight years at with the percentage ranging from 7-15% over that time.

You would take winning at 107% any day of the week over putting it in the bank.

 

[Borgsta]

so this person bet on < $1.20 favourites for 8 years and was able to withdraw $500k. Initial bankroll? Amount of turnover? Or are we just going so far away from the inital topic now that we can't see it anymore?

 

[Clash Hendrix]

He got 4% return over 10 years. Also he didn't actually get 4% he adjusted the figures to do that.





well not every one is 1.20, some are 1.10 / 1.15 so nice skewing of the stats there.

Oh and it has happened 521 times in 10 years. Good luck putting on 300 bets in 1 year.

Yeah, but we're kind of off the topic of the article now. Granted yeah, you're not going to get 300 bets a year betting on favourites 1.20 or lower, because there arent going to be that many.

We're talking more or less now about the concept of whether a 7% bank deposit is better than a 4% return on your bets over the course of a year.

As for the article, its just an anlysis of slim odd favourites. The guy isnt saying this is what he did. He's saying this is what would have happened if you had bet on every club that was a favourite 1.20 and under over the last 10 years. It's showing just how dominant the big clubs have been in terms of betting value.

 

[Borgsta]

4% profit over 10 years confirms to me that it is shit. What did you gain from it?

that is my argument. Apologies for making a mistake and later stating ROI (2nd apology actually).

 

[Ill Chicken]

so this person bet on < $1.20 favourites for 8 years and was able to withdraw $500k. Initial bankroll? Amount of turnover? Or are we just going so far away from the inital topic now that we can't see it anymore?

Obviously they weren't betting 1.20$ favourites all the time, which is a stupid idea to begin with anyway, particularly if you take ManU the other night against Arsenal when ManU was at least $1.50 pre-post. Also not limited to sport.

The turnover would have been huge, somewhere between 20 to 30k a week. Initial bankroll was between 5 and 10k.

 

[IDIG]

Brazil -1 v Ghana @ 2.20 (1x)

Ghana a man down for most of the game and Brazil can only manage a 1-0 win

YTD: +8.32U

 

[IDIG]

Tonight -
Australia v Saudi Arabia @ 2.40 (½x)
Argentina v Nigeria over 3.5 @ 2.92 (½x)
Finland v Holland over 3.5 @ 2.55 (½x)
Germany HT/FT v Poland @ 2.40 (½x)

 

[Donkson]

Holland haven't scored nearly as many goals away as they have at home, but at those odds it's pretty tempting for a team that good.

 

[yamahamoto]

how the hell did slovakia lost 4-0 to armenia at home....last leg of my multi...f***
i thought the socre was wrong...lol....should have been the other way around...

 

[jurrah13]

liking the look of everton/aston villa under 2.5 goals and fulham/blackburn under 2.5 goals, haven't seen attacking games at goodison or craven cottage in a while

 

[IDIG]

Tonight -
Australia v Saudi Arabia @ 2.40 (½x)
Argentina v Nigeria over 3.5 @ 2.92 (½x)
Finland v Holland over 3.5 @ 2.55 (½x)
Germany HT/FT v Poland @ 2.40 (½x)

2-2 +0.66U

Felt pretty confident with the ones that missed too

YTD: +8.98U

 

[IDIG]

Juventus -2 @ 2.63 v Notts (1/2x)
Over 3.5 @ 1.86 (1/2x)

Juve's first game in a new stadium against a league side should be a comfortable win and lots of goals.

 

[Starlin Castro]

Chelsea, Porto, Exeter-Notts u2.5 @ 3.99 (2.5x)

+7.475

 

[IDIG]

Been fade material of late but couldn't resist.

Dortmund v Arsenal u2.5 @ 1.77 (1.5x)
Barcelona -1 v AC Milan @ 1.67 (1.5)

Both Dortmund and Arsenal aren't scoring well and need to step up their defense so should be a pretty low scoring game.

AC Milan will be without Ibrahimovic and Robinho pretty sure (although i keep reading mixed likely squads so who knows lol). Barca coming off a draw after leading 2-0 early will be savage at home.

YTD: +7.98U

 

[Donkson]

Dortmund/Arsenal over looks like great value to me.

 

[N1k0s287]

Uefa Bets 14/9/11

5 x Barcelona/Chelsea @ 1.81 LOSS

Barcelona at home should be way to strong for the Milan team missing some key players especially after their average performance on the weekend. Won't be able to stop the midfield with the likes of Fabregas, Xavi,Iniesta and Messi running through and the power force is completely outpowering Milan's defence. Chelsea on the other hand should take the points at Stanford bridge after a good win on the weekend. The inclusions of Juan Mata and Sturridge finally getting some game time will hinder Leverkusen's effort to win away from home soil.

3 x Valencia WIN @ 1.61 LOSS

Really like Valencia away from home against a average team in Genk. Valencia in some form with 4/5 past games wins (including Athletico Madrid and AS ROMA) Although Valencia may be without important wingback Miguel, i think Valencia win comfortably to take the first win of their Uefa campaign.


2 x Over 2.5 goals FC Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk @ 1.78 WIN

Average defences and fantastic striking forces, see this as a real free flowing game which could end up 3-4 goals +


Good luck betting

YTD +2.06

 

[Bic]

Man City/Inter x4
Zenit St Petersburg x1
Porto/Shakhtar O2.5 x2
Chelsea/Leverkusen U2.5 x1
Dortmund/Arsenal O2.5 x2

Currently +47.85 units. I won a $9.80 EPL 6 leg multi last week which helped

 

[plowking]

Seems as if we all have the same ideas about the Champions League in terms of the betting.

Just thought I'd point out for the EPL Stoke/Sunderland U2.5 goals is at $1.60 if anyone wants to get on it. Thought it was great value as Stoke doesn't let anything in, where as Sunderland can't seem to score.

 

[IDIG]

Another lead given up by Barcelona lordy

 

[N1k0s287]

Sharp pain in my chest after that late goal....FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU barca

 

[IDIG]

[/B]Currently +47.85 units. I won a $9.80 EPL 6 leg multi last week which helped

Haha i was gonna say post more and I'll forget about making my own bets and just tail yours

 

[IDIG]

^^Almost unheard of

 

[IDIG]

Dortmund v Arsenal u2.5 @ 1.77 (1.5x)
Barcelona -1 v AC Milan @ 1.67 (1.5)

-0.35U
YTD: 7.65

Not going terribly great of late

 

[rocky10]

EPL Week 5 Predictions

BlackBurn Rover v Arsenal
Aston Villa v Newcastle United
Bolton Wanderers v Norwhich City
Everton v Wigan Athletic
Swansea City v West Bromwhich Albion
Wolverhampton Wanderers v QPR
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
Fulham v Manchester City
Sunderland v Stoke City
Manchester United v Chelsea