Expectations for 2014

[PieNSauce]

It's really hard to gague.

Looking absolutely bluntly, you would say, finishing 8th and losing Shaw and Thomas would suggest 9-12 is our realistic expectation.

What we dont know is how much our overall performance was driven by internal problems that are (hopefully) resolving themselves. I relied on that factor a lot, as well as seeing potential for a lot of younger players to imrpove to make a case for finals.

Seeing how we have stacked up so far though, and especially the injury toll, I'm revising downwards. For mine, improvement this year was heavily dependent on the likes of Seedsman/Fasolo/Keeffe/J Thomas stepping it up a notch, and all are struggling with fitness and or form. I also factored in a lot from the likes of Freeman/Oxley/Broomhead, all of whom I expected to make us better than alternatives. It's unfortunate, but I think that while our early injury state is bad enough, its way worse because it is hitting precisely those we needed to step it up to make us better. I'm expecting us to be well worse than I hoped by round 10 as a conseuence, though I think we will finish the season well. I just dont think now it will be well enough to factor in finals.

I think I'm actually on much the same page. I also think that my hopes for Grundy might have been a bit overblown. My expectations have slowly been falling over the last few weeks on the back of performances and injuries. Finals would now be a bonus IMO but I still hold out hope that injuries are not as bad as I hear and that form in the NAB challenge is not indicative of what we can expect come round 1.

 

[mike123]

Have another boring season like 2012 and 2013.

 

[The Don]

7-11th but I really do think we will struggle to make the 8 this year.

Shaw is a big loss to the side, Williams will most likely be out for the year and Toovey is coming back from an ACL.

We have a less experienced list than previous years (4th youngest), less proven depth than last year. Our ruckman has played less than 10 AFL games.

We will have improvements this year, players like Kennedy, Thomas, Seedsman, Frost, Adams and Grundy are all going to improve but if we expect to play top 4 with the list we have this year that would be madness.

My expectations are to sneak in to the 8 and win a finals game hopefully which would give these young guys a taste of finals footy and the experience of winning a final which would be great for them and the future of the club.

The problems with this analysis is you have underplayed our upside.
You discount the fact beams and young will both have a bigger impact this year.
While white will also have a positive impact
You also discount improved performance from Keefe ball and macaffer who have now had a year plus after there knee's.
As always the unknown impact of injuries will have a major say on where we finish like it does with all clubs.

 

[iGNITER]

Have another boring season like 2012 and 2013.

Seriously?

 

[jmac70]

Have another boring season like 2012 and 2013.

I hear lawn bowls is a really exciting game.

 

[Scodog10]

Have another boring season like 2012 and 2013.

Richmond supporters would kill to have back to back seasons as "boring" as those!

 

[mike123]

Seriously?

I hear lawn bowls is a really exciting game.

Richmond supporters would kill to have back to back seasons as "boring" as those!

I enjoyed watching other teams more than Collingwood over the last 2 years and the way our list is positioned it looks like it will be the same.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

To be honest, expectations is pointless when you have a president that has blind faith in the coach, purely because of his achievements as a footballer.

Eddie will not sack Buckley regardless on whether the slide down the ladder continues.

 

[Wayne Arnold]

To be honest, expectations is pointless when you have a president that has blind faith in the coach, purely because of his achievements as a footballer.

Eddie will not sack Buckley regardless on whether the slide down the ladder continues.

Why bother responding to the thread if you're not going to play the game? Pretty sure there is already a thread where you can critique Buckley's coaching and bemoan Eddie's blind faith. Why not just post your expectations for this year? Go on, it will be fun. You do yours and then I'll do mine.

 

[jmac70]

I enjoyed watching other teams more than Collingwood over the last 2 years and the way our list is positioned it looks like it will be the same.

Be careful saying stuff like that around here dude.

 

[Scodog10]

I enjoyed watching other teams more than Collingwood over the last 2 years and the way our list is positioned it looks like it will be the same.

Whatever floats your boat

 

[ColinMochrie]

I think one thing we need to remember throughout the year is that these different expectations will make for different reactions to results. I think if we can keep that in mind and not read everything as "Bucks lovers" or "Bucks haters" life on here will be much more calm.

I think the expectation that everyone has is that players bust their guts every game. If we do that I don't really care about ladder positions. I just want to see effort.

 

[mike123]

Whatever floats your boat

I hope my expectations don't come true

 

[Yidaki]

I would expect us to finish anywhere between 4th to 11th. Anything less would be disappointing. Although I would love a flag this year, there is no way we can match it with the likes of Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle. I do have us penciled in for a win in Round 1 against Fremantle though, but as the season goes on, they will be harder to beat. In saying this, there are no guarantees in AFL. We can mix it with the best if we correctly implement our strategies and game plans. So who knows? Maybe a Prelim or beyond? But in all seriousness, it will be our youth that will tire as the season goes on while the harder bodies of the teams mentioned above will prevail. I would like to be proven wrong though and see us sneak another flag.

 

[76woodenspooners]

To be honest, expectations is pointless when you have a president that has blind faith in the coach, purely because of his achievements as a footballer.

Not true.

It just means you have very low expectations ... which are still expectations nonetheless, right?

 

[Gone Critical]

I don't think we have an improved squad though.

I think we have brought in great young talent but have lost experience players in the process. Our future is bright but I think with the loss of Marley, Shaw and Thomas we will have a similar season to last year but expecting teams like North, WCE and Port to improve which could affect our spot in the 8. I think North will finish higher than us and I can think of any of the top 5 teams from last season that we are going to go past.

This is just my prediction based on looking at the list but if we are 4-0, I am sure I will be pretty optimistic and excited about this season.

I agree that Thomas and Shaw are significant losses and Marleys immediate future is guarded. Form 2013 though Daisy didn't have any real influence on the season so his loss doesn't weaken us from what we put up in 2013. On the flip side we can expect bigger contributions from Beams, Young, Ball, Keefe, Fasalo and Toovey. Doesnt that give you some optimism. Grundy Thomas Kennedy Elliott Seedsman Sinclair Dwyer Witts are players I expect to get game time in 2014 who will be improved by the experience they gained in 2013. We wont have 7 players playing their 1st AFL game in 2014 like we did in 2013. I expect very little from the likes of Broomhead, Freeman, Scharenburg, Ramsay, Langton or Marsh. They will only get games in 2014 if they can prove themselves better than the more experienced players above. This wasn't the case in 2013 where we were forced to debut a lot of players because our injury list grew lony with a lot of very good players on it. All our stars and stable 22 players seem fit and ready to go in 2014.

Adams and White are 2 new players who I expect to get plenty of gametime in 2014 and will be an improvement to the 22. White in particular should provide more for us than Lynch was able to in 2013.

So while we have lost one sinificant contributor to our 2013 result in Shaw there are many other areas where we have upgraded. Can you give me more detail as to where you see the list falling away this season compared to last

 

[Black_White]

Ninthwood.

 

[hellfire]

I think we'll finish 4th.

 

[Gone Critical]

I would expect us to finish anywhere between 4th to 11th. Anything less would be disappointing. Although I would love a flag this year, there is no way we can match it with the likes of Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle. I do have us penciled in for a win in Round 1 against Fremantle though, but as the season goes on, they will be harder to beat. In saying this, there are no guarantees in AFL. We can mix it with the best if we correctly implement our strategies and game plans. So who knows? Maybe a Prelim or beyond? But in all seriousness, it will be our youth that will tire as the season goes on while the harder bodies of the teams mentioned above will prevail. I would like to be proven wrong though and see us sneak another flag.

This is one of the points I am not seeing. Assuming a good run with injuries I do not see us fielding inexperienced sides in the coming season. We have 15 premiership players on the list all of whom are in best 22 calculations and all of whom have 5 seasons in the system as a minimum. In addition Fasalo, Elliot, Williams, Sinclair, Seedsman, Adams and Thomas who have 3 or more preseasosn behind them and a body of games experience such that they are not that green.

The only real youngsters I see getting a good number of games this year are Kennedy and Grundy, even they are 2nd year players. Any other youngsters getting games, assuming a good injury run , will be those that demand a more experienced players spot by weight of performance. That wouldn't be a bad thing and wouldn't make us weaker.

 

[Gone Critical]

I know I am going on a bit in this thread, for that I apologise.

Still the crux of the problem I see is a lot of acceptance that 2013 represented a new level of performance for us that is a long way behind where we were in 2010-11. I see reasons why we were down in 2013 that are reversible. I see 2013 not as some sort of a new benchmark for our perfornmance but rather a bit of an abberation. An abberation where a very talented and still significantly intact let themselves down badly. Not unlike the Hawks of 2009-10 or Geelong of 2012.

I reckon there is a lack of consideration of the possibility that we sucked in 2013 and are much better than that. Thats what I am seeing so look to 2014 with confidence

 

[ColinMochrie]

I know I am going on a bit in this thread, for that I apologise.

Still the crux of the problem I see is a lot of acceptance that 2013 represented a new level of performance for us that is a long way behind where we were in 2010-11. I see reasons why we were down in 2013 that are reversible. I see 2013 not as some sort of a new benchmark for our perfornmance but rather a bit of an abberation. An abberation where a very talented and still significantly intact let themselves down badly. Not unlike the Hawks of 2009-10 or Geelong of 2012.

I reckon there is a lack of consideration of the possibility that we sucked in 2013 and are much better than that. Thats what I am seeing so look to 2014 with confidence

I understand that and it's a good point. I think my main worry is the weaknesses we have been showing were the same issues before our good run in 2010-2011. Good drafting allowed us to fill the holes we had. Leigh Brown surprisingly being one of the key players for our structure. With Jolly gone too and our midfield not being able to play together because of injuries, this has been the reasons for the poor performances.

I guess if we can get all the players on the park, White can fill the second forward role and Grundy and Witts can hold the ruck the only REAL issue we have is the inexperienced defence. Move Reid back and we know Nathan Brown and Keefe CAN play, if they can find form things will look better.

It all depends on injuries and whether the younger players to take the next step/be more consistent. This could happen this year, more likely to happen in years after. Think St.Kilda when they were up. We always talked about how a team is as good as their 5 lowest players and that was the difference between Collingwood and the Saints/Bulldogs in those times.

So it all rests on our premiership stars to have the hunger back and to buy in to bucks gameplan and the young fellas holding their own.

 

[iGNITER]

I enjoyed watching other teams more than Collingwood over the last 2 years and the way our list is positioned it looks like it will be the same.

Maybe you should have jumped ship to Carlton with Daisy.

 

[mike123]

Maybe you should have jumped ship to Carlton with Daisy.

Carlton wasn't one of them.

 

[BeechyMagpie]

I know I am going on a bit in this thread, for that I apologise.

Still the crux of the problem I see is a lot of acceptance that 2013 represented a new level of performance for us that is a long way behind where we were in 2010-11. I see reasons why we were down in 2013 that are reversible. I see 2013 not as some sort of a new benchmark for our perfornmance but rather a bit of an abberation. An abberation where a very talented and still significantly intact let themselves down badly. Not unlike the Hawks of 2009-10 or Geelong of 2012.

I reckon there is a lack of consideration of the possibility that we sucked in 2013 and are much better than that. Thats what I am seeing so look to 2014 with confidence

That's actually a really good point and quite valid. I guess a lot, including me, do see 2013 as the year we stripped back, and that we are now trying to build off, rather than it being the blip in the past 5 years.

I guess most Collingwood supporters, despite being labelled delusional are actually quite pessimistic people. We've all seen Collingwood pumped to the hilt, only to fall short of expectations, so I guess we are taking a guarded approach. But reading through the posts, even typing your own post, opens your eyes a bit to the fact we do still have an amazingly talented team. And if we get a bit of luck with injuries, we have a quality spine, an A+ midfield and the best key forward in a game.

As many have mentioned it's just going to come down to our kids and our players from 15-22. If they stand up, take the next step then we can be a challenger. If they don't then we are in the mixer from 5th-11th. There are going to be some very good teams miss finals this year.

Hawks, Swans, Dockers would have to be locks for top 4 but from there Geelong, Tigers, North, Pies, Blues, Bombers, Port, Crows, Eagles would all have realistic ambitions of finishing 4th-8th. 4 of those 12 are going to miss out which shows how strong the comp is at the moment. I'd say we have just as much, if not a bit more, talent than the other clubs do, but gameplan, our kids development, and injuries all will determine the end result.

 

[TheWing121]

Injuries / Suspensions aside I think we have realistic hopes of pushing for top 4, I would consider not making finals as a bad season based on our side at the moment, looking at our side I would make the following observations

Positives:
Midfield, arguable in the top few in the league (add in Adams, full season from Beams we are looking even better)
Tall Forwards, with Cloke, White, Reid we are in very good shape. If things go well it could be considered one of the best forwards lines at year end

Indifferent:
Small Forwards / Half Forwards, I don't think is terrible or great, but I can see only upside on last year, If our talls go well we shouldn't be outnumbered like last year meaning more opportunities for our smalls. With increased midfield depth I think the likes of Kennedy, Adams, Thomas will add some spark to our forward line, along with Elliot and Fasolo if he gets back to previous form
Tall Backman: Keefe will only get better, Brown had a very strong year last year & Frost has shown he is a handy backup. With the opportunity for Reid to come back. I think we have a decent spine, who will look allot better when they have consistent smalls around them.

Negatives:
Small Backman / Half Backs: An obvious area of concern, doesn't help with Williams and Seeds out for the start of the season. But with Toovey coming back it is an obvious plus, I also think Sinclair is underated. For start of the year Harry and Young may have to plug gaps. Langdon has also had a positive NAB cup, I see upside but more to come in future years
Rucks: Grundy had an incredible year for a first year ruckman, but until he becomes a force around the ground and a threat going forward. With White as backup I see us having an alright ruck setup, which should only improve. But I think it is passable option at the moment.