FanFooty Fanplanner 2009 (v2)

[Schulzenfest]

Here is my team im new to DT so feel free to comment my team

Backs: Newman, C.Cornes, Goddard, Malceski, Drummond, Pettard, Grimes (em) Lynch, Suban

Centre: J.Lewis, Swan, Gibbs, Haselby, Coughlan, Rich (em) Sidebottom, Dangerfeild

Rucks: Cox, Ottens (em) Currie, Vickery

Fowards: SJohnson, Pav, Q.Lynch, Lucas, Higgans, Veszpremi or A.davey, Yarran (em) Ballyntine, Gumbleton

50k left

Pretty good team for someone new to DT. Definitely better than mine was. Only problem I can see is too many injury risks in your backline. Malceski, Drummond, Petterd and Grimes are all injury prone, and you don't have the greatest bench.

 

[m0nty]

If you change Cuz, m0nty, you might as well change Begley and Leigh Brown at the same time

Done, done and done.

 

[hamole]

Seeking a bit of advice on this one:

Backs
Martin Mattner
Grant Birchall
Brendon Goddard
Chad Chornes
Nick Malceski
Shannon Hurn
Jack Grimes

Nick Suban
Alex Rance

Mids
Brett Deledio
Bryce Gibbs
Jordan Lewis/Travis Boak
Paul Hasleby
Mark Coughlan
Jack Ziebell

Daniel Rich
Steele Sidebottom

Rucks
Dean Cox
Troy Simmonds

Tyrone Vickery
Daniel Currie

Forwards
Matthew Pavlich
Quinten Lynch
Leon Davis
Scott Lucas
Shaun Higgins
Patrick Veszpremi
Hayden Ballantyne

Daniel O'Keefe
Chris Yarran

May main concerns are:
There is a serious lack of depth in the midfield. I need 2 of Rich, Coughlan, Ziebell and Sidebottom to get a game week in week out which is probably asking a bit much.

The 7th back spot is very iffy. Suban should get games, as should Grimes but the risk of neither of them playing and having to cop a zero is a bit high for my liking.

The forward line could either fly or flop. It requires Davis and Lynch to step up to premium level. If this does not happen they're essentially just wasted money. I can't figure out quite what role I want Higgins and Veszpremi to play, they just seemed to represent the best value. They're at that awkward price where it's hard to decide whether or not I'm going to trade them later on.

On the positive side:
I think I have a fair few early captain choices in Cox, Dids, Pav and to a lesser extent Chornes and Goddard.

The like the strength of the rucks. It's very much a lock and leave strategy which always me to focus on the rest of the team.

I am very confident in the forward line rookies. I will be astounded if there is a week when one of Yarran or Ballantyne isn't getting a game.

So yeah, thoughts?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Would prefer not to reveal it, I want as few people taking him as possible. It's not anything major, just something I've noticed.

Is that hes very durable and barely misses games plus he is an improving young player and would expect his scores to improve based on that. Or is that he is hugely consistant and cant be picked up to cheaply unless he plays those 30 point games which may be another reason in which you think he will eliminate these types of games, thus he wouldve had a higher avg in 08.

Could you post a source or something??

You do realise that you saying that will cause people to select him and if youre wrong than you will get ripped to shreds.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Some issues I have with the above side:

As you said, 7th back spot is iffy. If I was you I'd free up some money and upgrade one of the rookies to Petterd, who is nearly a lock in the Demons 22, and if he isn't then Grimes will probably take his place.

Davis's scores rose significantly with Didak out of the side. If you take away those scores, his average gets a lot less impressive. Considering that in your average game one plays small forward and one plays in the midfield, Didak returning will probably negatively affect Davis.

A bit of a lack of captain options IMO. Other than Cox, none of them really jump out at you. Pavlich will be one by the end of the year but like most key forwards, going on this year's evidence at least (I never took DT seriously until this year) he is a slow starter. Chad may have to spend more time up forward this year which will affect his scores as he isn't that great as a forward. Deledio and Gibbs may become captain options, but are thus far unproven.

Not massive issues, but I'd have Rich ahead of Ziebell (although I think Ziebell will be the better AFL player) and Yarran ahead of Ballantyne.

Overall a good team though.

For some reason mine got ignored, will someone do mine pretty please with a cherry on top?

 

[Schulzenfest]

Is that hes very durable and barely misses games plus he is an improving young player and would expect his scores to improve based on that. Or is that he is hugely consistant and cant be picked up to cheaply unless he plays those 30 point games which may be another reason in which you think he will eliminate these types of games, thus he wouldve had a higher avg in 08.

Could you post a source or something??

You do realise that you saying that will cause people to select him and if youre wrong than you will get ripped to shreds.

No to both of the above reasons, although they are both good bonuses. And it's not something you can post a source to, I realize now that I worded it wrong. I don't have any news on him, there's just something I've noticed about him that I want to keep to myself. I'd give you a clue or something but I can't think of one that isn't too obvious.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I actually clicked on this thread by accident, but while I'm here:

Keepers bolded

Backs:
Mackie
Goddard
Chornes
Walker
Birchall (Note: I have some information which may be public knowledge but I haven't seen anywhere that leads me to believe that Birchall will average 85-90. If you disagree, for the purposes of dissecting my team pretend he is Bock or someone like that)
Malceski
Petterd
Grimes
Suban/Rance/Ashley Smith

Kornes
Gibbs
Cousins
Haselby (barring injury, one but not both of him and Cousins will be a keeper for me. Not sure which one at this stage though)
Rich
Coughlan
Dangerfield if at minimum price which I think he will be, if not then Foster
Sidebottom/Swift/Robinson/Davenport

Cox
Ottens
Currie
Orreal

Pavlich
Chapman/SJ (Undecided, Chapman has a higher ceiling but Johnson's more durable)
Bate
Lucas
Higgins (the better scorer out of him and Lucas may become a keeper if I'm hit hard by injuries)
Yarran
Ziebell (Rusling if Ziebell's not a forward)
Two of Ballantyne/Heyne/Daniel or Rhys O'Keefe

Thoughts?

Can only really comment on your structure at the moment.

You have 4 genuine rookies starting and 5 including Petterd and with his last 2 years is almost rated a rookie by me only IMO. So that is okay personally i think it is important to limit these rookies to 2 or 3. Whoever can get through the start of the season without scoring 0's will be in a very strong position. With the modern game becoming faster and quicker injuries have rapidly increased in the past year or 2, meaning less rookies the less chance of 0's.

You have some unique picks who show potential eg: Mackie, Walker, Bate. With your forwards i am locking in SJ, I dont want to entice you to pick him but he is a much better player than Chapman regards to DT and durability. SJ barely went under SP so he is hard to get into your side once you start. Him and Pavlich i see as the most consistant top end forwards and must haves for me almost from the start. Sj only went under his SP for like 2 rounds this year in the "trade in zone time" (Eg: first 12 weeks when getting in premiums is vital). SJ avg 90 x 22 (rounds) = 1980, Chappy 95 x 16 (Rounds) = 1520 + 6 x 50 = 300 = 1820 (for chappy through year). Also choosing Chappy means a trade may have to be used if his injuries become to major. I have favoured Chappy with this example as well, i personally think SJ will avg more anyway if both play 22 games.

You have bolded 14 players as keepers and that is fair enough and a good number to have at the start. I think Malceksi and Cousins and possibly Bate are the players that may not reach that keeper status in 09 but may be the 6th mid or 7th back or 7th forward. Remember that these players may require a trade each to get a keeper/premium type player. I think if you have these 3 players in your side along with that unique (Walker) for the entire year you may struggle thus i think 4 trades may be required for these players unless they have that super year.

Good setup and structue
Try to eliminate those 4 rookies to 3 or 2 as i think injuries will be major this year more than in 08 and 0's will be likely
Good number of keepers
Some nice unique picks

Now for me giving you this wonderful hopefully comment and criticsm of your side whats with the Birchall?? why is he a msu thave PM me if you would like!! PLZ (will take it with grain of salt)

 

[Virgil]

SJ barely went under SP so he is hard to get into your side once you start.

Sj only went under his SP for like 2 rounds this year in the "trade in zone time" (Eg: first 12 weeks when getting in premiums is vital).

DWD we debunked this when you posted it yesterday, his price plummeted, read our responses.

Now for me giving you this wonderful hopefully comment and criticsm of your side whats with the Birchall?? why is he a msu thave PM me if you would like!! PLZ (will take it with grain of salt)

Er... why exactly are you asking then?

I know he got tagged twice last year (once against Essendon, once against North Melbourne), and his DT output in both of these games was poor. However, with Guerra and Hodge in the Hawthorn backline, Birchall may get a reprieve from any future tags.

 

[Schulzenfest]

I agree that the rookies could be a bit of a worry, but I have enough confidence in my bench to back them in and hope. Grimes, Dangerfield (or Foster if it comes to that), Currie and Ballantyne could all easily play 22games and are probably in their respective club's best 22's ATM (except maybe Currie), if Currie isn't playing the likelihood of Orreal playing is significantly raised, and I think that Sidebottom, Suban, Heyne and Daniel O'Keefe are all likely to play Round 1.

 

[Daz]

With your forwards i am locking in SJ, I dont want to entice you to pick him but he is a much better player than Chapman regards to DT and durability. SJ barely went under SP so he is hard to get into your side once you start. Him and Pavlich i see as the most consistant top end forwards and must haves for me almost from the start. Sj only went under his SP for like 2 rounds this year in the "trade in zone time" (Eg: first 12 weeks when getting in premiums is vital). SJ avg 90 x 22 (rounds) = 1980, Chappy 95 x 16 (Rounds) = 1520 + 6 x 50 = 300 = 1820 (for chappy through year). Also choosing Chappy means a trade may have to be used if his injuries become to major. I have favoured Chappy with this example as well, i personally think SJ will avg more anyway if both play 22 games.

We've been through this before RT. SJ only went above his starting price once this year, not sure where you got that number from.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

^^ ive got it Dazza Wyatt

Its got to do with going under 85% and how its a good trade when a player goes under 85% of SP. He only went under his SP of 85% for like 2 rounds during the trade in zone (rounds 3-12).

I finally worked it at, so he is pretty consistant still.

He actually only went under that 85% mark once during the trade in zone. Round 9.

 

[hamole]

^^ ive got it Dazza Wyatt

Its got to do with going under 85% and how its a good trade when a player goes under 85% of SP. He only went under his SP of 85% for like 2 rounds during the trade in zone (rounds 3-12).

I finally worked it at, so he is pretty consistant still.

He actually only went under that 85% mark once during the trade in zone. Round 9.

Consistently under performing isn't a good thing...

 

[Daz]

^^ ive got it Dazza Wyatt

Its got to do with going under 85% and how its a good trade when a player goes under 85% of SP. He only went under his SP of 85% for like 2 rounds during the trade in zone (rounds 3-12).

I finally worked it at, so he is pretty consistant still.

He actually only went under that 85% mark once during the trade in zone. Round 9.

You need to gauge his consistancy over the entire year, not just the 'trade zone'. I appreciate that RD's 3-12 is the ideal time to trade but that doesn't mean he will produce the same scores at the same time next year. Also, next time, make it clear that by 'starting price' you mean '85% of starting price'

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Done, done and done.

Cheers x 3

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Well for the entire year SJ went under 85% of SP 4 times during the 08 season Round 9, 20, 21 and 22. Making only 3 rounds to trade him in if going by this strategy which was looked at in the DWD new theory strategy thread. So only round 9 was a good time whilst round 4-6 wouldve been okay aswell to get a premium in earlier rather than later. I think Pavlich is the only player who went below 85% of SP less than SJ, if that makes sense. He only went 2 times under 85% of SP.

Hamole above, just about all top end premiums with a high SP go under their SP. This is due to Magic number flattening at. SJ consistantly stays within the 85% of SP and 100% of SP. Where as a N.Riewoldt may go under for a lot longer and may go down to 75% of SP.

 

[Daz]

Well for the entire year SJ went under 85% of SP 4 times during the 08 season Round 9, 20, 21 and 22. Making only 3 rounds to trade him in if going by this strategy which was looked at in the DWD new theory strategy thread. So only round 9 was a good time whilst round 4-6 wouldve been okay aswell to get a premium in earlier rather than later. I think Pavlich is the only player who went below 85% of SP less than SJ, if that makes sense. He only went 2 times under 85% of SP.

Hamole above, just about all top end premiums with a high SP go under their SP. This is due to Magic number flattening at. SJ consistantly stays within the 85% of SP and 100% of SP. Where as a N.Riewoldt may go under for a lot longer and may go down to 75% of SP.

How many premiums did you actually look at? In your thread you only looked at SJ, Pav and Riewoldt. Basically your 'new strategy' is to look for consistant players for your premiums so you can pick up the inconsistant premiums at a cheap price when they have their low scores. Nothing wrong with the strategy but it certainly is not new.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

A few points to make:

1) This is not a criticism, just my curiosity. I've seen Brett Jones in a few teams (mainly last year) and I just can't understand it. Am I missing something? Does he have the potential to score big?

I had Bones this season. Although I have no idea why so many others did too. He averaged 70 in 08 after 67 in 07. Not great numbers really. He only had 2 hundreds this year, both were 20+ possession/10+ mark games. He is a KP defender, normally playing on the opposition's leadup forward.

The attractive trait that Bones has is that he plays off his man - ala Sam Fisher - and when doing so he racks up a few marks playing as the linkman in the back 50. We all know how well Fisher does this, and these kinds of players are invaluable because they don't get much opposition attention because they are KP defenders.

Having said that, Bones is not nearly as good as Fisher at his role (not yet, at least). And while the makeup of his stats is perfect for a fantasy defender, i.e. lots of kicks and marks, he will need to increase his ball-winning ability if he is to take the next step.

I don't see him playing anywhere other than the backline though, so his ceiling is probably somewhat low.

I know this is not merely your idea Virgil, its a common Bigfooty way of thinking. But I think the belief that playing in the backline means players have limited DT potential is a myth. Sam Fisher, Joel Bowden and Nathan Bock were three of the top 7 DT defenders last year. All had negligible time in the midfield (Bowden had a couple of games played out of position though). Defenders can be some of the best fantasy players.

 

[The Cotch]

OK, sorry about this guy's. I took on board the advice someone else gave me yesterday. Thanks heaps for that. My midfield is my only concern, but I've gone for upside moreso than stars. It frees up cash everywhere else.

Backs

Hodge
Cornes
Malceski
Drummond
Ibbotson
Everitt
Petterd

Suban
Rance

Centres

Knights
Salopek
Adcock
Haselby
Cousins
Rich

Coughlan
Dangerfield

Rucks

Cox
McIntosh

Vickery
McKernan

Forwards

Franklin
Murphy
Goodes
Lucas
Connors
Higgins
Yarran

Ballantyne
Ziebell

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

OK, sorry about this guy's. I took on board the advice someone else gave me yesterday. Thanks heaps for that. My midfield is my only concern, but I've gone for upside moreso than stars. It frees up cash everywhere else.

Backs

Hodge
Cornes
Malceski
Drummond
Ibbotson
Everitt
Petterd

Suban
Rance

As a general guide I'd steer away from injury-prone players - especially in your initial squad where durability is so important. I've highlighted four players in the backline who appear to have serious injury issues.

Drummond is possibly the most injury-prone defender, missing 44 games in the last 4 seasons. Ouch! He has the potential to be the highest-averaging defender, but is he really worth the risk?

Malceski is not as bad as I thought (I seem to get him mixed up with Kenelly for some reason), but he has also missed 21 games in the last 3 years (a full season's worth). Even though he did manage to play every game in 2007.

Everitt and Petterd both have plenty of potential. But it comes at a risk. Petterd has played only 11 games in 2 years, and Everitt has played 17.

In your starting squad, durability is vitally important. Why? Take this example. Drummond could average 100 yet if he misses 5 games for the year he has scored you 100*17 = 1700 points. On the other hand, Birchall might only average 85 but if he plays 22 games then he'll get you 1870 points for the season.

 

[The Cotch]

As a general guide I'd steer away from injury-prone players - especially in your initial squad where durability is so important. I've highlighted four players in the backline who appear to have serious injury issues.

Drummond is possibly the most injury-prone defender, missing 44 games in the last 4 seasons. Ouch! He has the potential to be the highest-averaging defender, but is he really worth the risk?

Malceski is not as bad as I thought (I seem to get him mixed up with Kenelly for some reason), but he has also missed 21 games in the last 3 years (a full season's worth). Even though he did manage to play every game in 2007.

Everitt and Petterd both have plenty of potential. But it comes at a risk. Petterd has played only 11 games in 2 years, and Everitt has played 17.

In your starting squad, durability is vitally important. Why? Take this example. Drummond could average 100 yet if he misses 5 games for the year he has scored you 100*16 = 1700 points. On the other hand, Birchall might only average 85 but if he plays 22 games then he'll get you 1870 points for the season.

Very true, thanks for that.

 

[Lakey91]

Bit off Topic quickly, how did you go last year Lakey? I'm guessing pretty well?

Last year i did no-where near as good as most of you guys around here. Due to school and crap I didnt really look too deeply into draft and sift extensively through the mid-prices but i still finished low 20k in rankings. Looking for a big improvement this year though as im doing ALOT more research into mid pricers and draftees and watching videos etc - got alot more time on my hands now that ive finished school

 

[Lakey91]

Veszpremi's probably too expensive to be great value, I'd upgrade him.

I disagree - Expensive? at (IIRC) 217k? I think he will play 18+ games, and average 65-70 - had alot of shots on goal during his limited gametime. Although there are other options like lucas/higgins/davey at that price I think Veszpremi has potential.

 

[Lakey91]

OK I think im onto what gopowers saying about birchall - may be way off but its something i noticed too and was looking at recently and im happy to share – may be WAYYYY off but I think its interesting anyway:

Often, players will have whats called a break out year where they significantly improve to levels well above previous years. Sometimes, players like Goddard, Cox, Pavlich, Chad Cornes, Peter Burgoyne (as examples) will consistently improve year after year. Others, have more of the breakout year style of improvement – where they will improve then plateau/decrease (in terms of DT scoring) whether that be to a tag, change of role, plateau in physical condition etc. Players who have experience this include:

(Bolded Number is plateau, red is breakout)

Mitchell – 47, 69, 67, 88...
Ablett – 37, 68, 69, 76, 77, 99... (76 is mini breakout – but shows trend)
Salopek – ...25, 79, 80, 94...
Bowden – 28, 74, 69, 70, 93...
Deledio – 61, 77, 76, 98...

These are just a few examples (pot these numbers in excel to see more clearly)

Now if you look at Birchal His numbers are:

Birchal - 70.4, 79.0, 79.1

From this it is seen that his breakout could be next year.

I had a look and found other players also followed the pattern:

Gwilt – 38, 59, 52...
Ryder – 28, 51, 48...
Begley – 41, 50, 45...
M. Warnock - 25, 45, 45...

These players could be in for a similar breakout year where they signicantly improve to mid-high 60s.

However this is all just numbers and patterns really, as I wouldn’t pick any of gwilt/ryder/begley/Warnock for various reasons.

Also, what happens if their plateau is prolonged as joel bowdens was?

This is just something interesting I noticed when sifting through player historys, and I found it interesting to find the plateau/breakout improvement – doesnt mean anything definite, just something to think about.

But from this trend, it could be said that birchall may be ready to average high 80s to even low 90s. However one must examine his role, his injury history, his game time, his preseason training and a whole lot of factors before one picks a player (hence why I wouldn’t jump on any of gwilt/ryder/begley/Warnock) – but, history does show that plateaus are often followed with significant improvement.

Just a thought, may mean nothing, it was just something I noticed.

 

[Virgil]

I know this is not merely your idea Virgil, its a common Bigfooty way of thinking. But I think the belief that playing in the backline means players have limited DT potential is a myth. Sam Fisher, Joel Bowden and Nathan Bock were three of the top 7 DT defenders last year. All had negligible time in the midfield (Bowden had a couple of games played out of position though). Defenders can be some of the best fantasy players.

The difference is that these three players are given a lot of offensively responsibility in sides that have high scoring DT backlines. Isn't Brett Jones mainly used as a small defender?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Birchall

Would think that Consistancy is a major reason, thus meaning he wont lose too much money during year meaning he may not be easy to get during the year. Also dont think he has missed a game yet IIRC??

Could be a good replacment for Ellis in your planning side if you have the extra bit of cash