FanFooty Fanplanner 2009 (v2)

[Schulzenfest]

Wrong on Birchall Lakey, but good research. As for Veszpremi, playing for Sydney in the traditionally low DT scoring small forward role I just don't see him averaging any better this year than he did last, and Higgins/Lucas have much more potential in my eyes.

 

[54Dogs]

Wrong on Birchall Lakey, but good research. As for Veszpremi, playing for Sydney in the traditionally low DT scoring small forward role I just don't see him averaging any better this year than he did last, and Higgins/Lucas have much more potential in my eyes.

If Veswhatever gets a discount, as is highly likely, and averages what he did this year he would make plenty of cash.

The concern is his job security at his price so pre-season may give a better indication.

 

[54Dogs]

OK I think im onto what gopowers saying about birchall - may be way off but its something i noticed too and was looking at recently and im happy to share – may be WAYYYY off but I think its interesting anyway:

Often, players will have whats called a break out year where they significantly improve to levels well above previous years. Sometimes, players like Goddard, Cox, Pavlich, Chad Cornes, Peter Burgoyne (as examples) will consistently improve year after year. Others, have more of the breakout year style of improvement – where they will improve then plateau/decrease (in terms of DT scoring) whether that be to a tag, change of role, plateau in physical condition etc. Players who have experience this include:

(Bolded Number is plateau, red is breakout)

Mitchell – 47, 69, 67, 88...
Ablett – 37, 68, 69, 76, 77, 99... (76 is mini breakout – but shows trend)
Salopek – ...25, 79, 80, 94...
Bowden – 28, 74, 69, 70, 93...
Deledio – 61, 77, 76, 98...

These are just a few examples (pot these numbers in excel to see more clearly)

Now if you look at Birchal His numbers are:

Birchal - 70.4, 79.0, 79.1

From this it is seen that his breakout could be next year.

I had a look and found other players also followed the pattern:

Gwilt – 38, 59, 52...
Ryder – 28, 51, 48...
Begley – 41, 50, 45...
M. Warnock - 25, 45, 45...

These players could be in for a similar breakout year where they signicantly improve to mid-high 60s.

However this is all just numbers and patterns really, as I wouldn’t pick any of gwilt/ryder/begley/Warnock for various reasons.

Also, what happens if their plateau is prolonged as joel bowdens was?

This is just something interesting I noticed when sifting through player historys, and I found it interesting to find the plateau/breakout improvement – doesnt mean anything definite, just something to think about.

But from this trend, it could be said that birchall may be ready to average high 80s to even low 90s. However one must examine his role, his injury history, his game time, his preseason training and a whole lot of factors before one picks a player (hence why I wouldn’t jump on any of gwilt/ryder/begley/Warnock) – but, history does show that plateaus are often followed with significant improvement.

Just a thought, may mean nothing, it was just something I noticed.

Nice effort and research again Lakey.

The reason people have a breakout year is either through a role change or increased TOG. Generally moving into the midfield is the big one. If you look at significant jumps for defenders / forwards it would be from 30 to 60 or 50 to 75 but to start at 79 and see a significant jump Birchall would need to move into the midfield as his TOG is already high. Given the Hawks options this is unlikely so the best you could hope for is 5-10 ppw IMO. Having said that he does look durable and has a very low SD so he would still be a safe set / forget option to consider.

 

[Lakey91]

Wrong on Birchall Lakey, but good research

Thought Id share anyway, but yeh, just thought it was interesting.

As for Veszpremi, playing for Sydney in the traditionally low DT scoring small forward role I just don't see him averaging any better this year than he did last, and Higgins/Lucas have much more potential in my eyes.

Well I think he will push up thr ground and score well, but as i said, there are plenty of options around that mark to watch in preseason - dont rule out yet though.

The reason people have a breakout year is either through a role change or increased TOG. Generally moving into the midfield is the big one. If you look at significant jumps for defenders / forwards it would be from 30 to 60 or 50 to 75 but to start at 79 and see a significant jump Birchall would need to move into the midfield as his TOG is already high. Given the Hawks options this is unlikely so the best you could hope for is 5-10 ppw IMO. Having said that he does look durable and has a very low SD so he would still be a safe set / forget option to consider.

Yeah good points, and i think thats why it is important to look at other factors too (as i mentioned). The thing with birchal, even if he improves only 7-8ppg, he would be in the top 7 backs easily i would think (due to his durability too). So he doesnt have to improve by THAT much (15-25 as you mentioned) to become a certain keeper, which means he is good value at 377k (around 20th for the backs).

Anyway im definately not sold on Birchal, though I think durability is hard to find in the backs - only 10 of top 30 backs in 2008 played all 22 games! And I dont particularly like roughead, mattner, bock, brennan or mcmahon at the moment for various reasons, but thats just personal - think it just shows how tough it is to find durable backman (though i spose 20+ games a seasons is acceptable (15/top 30 backs)).

 

[Cruiser23]

Anyway im definately not sold on Birchall, though I think durability is hard to find in the backs - only 10 of top 30 backs in 2008 played all 22 games! And I dont particularly like roughead, mattner, bock, brennan or mcmahon at the moment for various reasons, but thats just personal - think it just shows how tough it is to find durable backman (though i spose 20+ games a seasons is acceptable (15/top 30 backs)).

Why is that?

He is proven to be capable of sustaining sufficient scores for a year, averaging basically 80 for the past 2 years. He's played 60 consecutive games in a row and his position is cemented in the Hawks side. Another thing that really has got me thinking of taking him for my 4th year in a row is his role seemed to change down the stretch. He seemed to be released a little from his defensive duties. It definitely coincided with his scores as they improved over the last 5 games of the season and continued into the 3 finals games. He managed an average of 90 during that 8 game stretch which included his only 3 hundreds of the year.

 

[Schulzenfest]

If Veswhatever gets a discount, as is highly likely, and averages what he did this year he would make plenty of cash.

The concern is his job security at his price so pre-season may give a better indication.

I'm far from an expert on that sort of thing, but I'll try and sound knowledgeable on it for a second. Say Veszpremi gets a 30% discount, which he probably will. He averaged around 65 this year, with the discount he'll be priced at averaging around 46-47, which according to FF is 217k. If he averages 65 again, once again going by FF he'll get up to around 300k. My understanding is that the number prices are calculated by goes down during the year, so he probably won't even make that. My personal strategy is I want either keepers or players who I think will make at least 100k, and he doesn't fit into either category. Others may have a different strategy and that's fine, but I wouldn't consider him for my team.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Im very much not sold on Vezpremi. He did avg 65 last year but only played 4 games which doesnt necessarily show that he will do this again in 09. By him avg this it shows he has potential but after reading E.Quale's book about him i am still not set about his ability to get fit and win alot of the footy from a HFF. Also Sydney play a game which probably wont suit him yet however looking at sydneys side they have plenty of attacking players at both ends of the ground. Also Sydney have added some other players that could also give him a lack of TOG. L.Johnstone should play up forward as a 3rd tall and R.Shaw will have his part as a wingman. Although Sydney dont have many small forwards thus he should fit in okay although a player like J.Moore and Buchanon could affect Vez and i guess the reason of Sydney not having many small forwards is a reason why many will select him.

I also didnt get to see him play last year which also wont make me select him easily. Also rate a few players at a similar price ahead of him, very happy to be persuaded but im not set clear on him yet!!

 

[54Dogs]

Im very much not sold on Vezpremi. He did avg 65 last year but only played 4 games which doesnt necessarily show that he will do this again in 09. By him avg this it shows he has potential but after reading E.Quale's book about him i am still not set about his ability to get fit and win alot of the footy from a HFF. Also Sydney play a game which probably wont suit him yet however looking at sydneys side they have plenty of attacking players at both ends of the ground. Also Sydney have added some other players that could also give him a lack of TOG. L.Johnstone should play up forward as a 3rd tall and R.Shaw will have his part as a wingman. Although Sydney dont have many small forwards thus he should fit in okay although a player like J.Moore and Buchanon could affect Vez and i guess the reason of Sydney not having many small forwards is a reason why many will select him.

I also didnt get to see him play last year which also wont make me select him easily. Also rate a few players at a similar price ahead of him, very happy to be persuaded but im not set clear on him yet!!

Each to their own but history says he can find the pill at every level he has played. Averaged over 20 touches PG in TAC cup plus kicking goals and didn't look out of place in the Swans forward line this year. I saw him play down at Manuka and he moved well.Having said that he may not be limited to the forward line as he's also played midfield and back pocket previously. He's just another option to consider.

I'm far from an expert on that sort of thing, but I'll try and sound knowledgeable on it for a second. Say Veszpremi gets a 30% discount, which he probably will. He averaged around 65 this year, with the discount he'll be priced at averaging around 46-47, which according to FF is 217k. If he averages 65 again, once again going by FF he'll get up to around 300k. My understanding is that the number prices are calculated by goes down during the year, so he probably won't even make that. My personal strategy is I want either keepers or players who I think will make at least 100k, and he doesn't fit into either category. Others may have a different strategy and that's fine, but I wouldn't consider him for my team.

If you find a mid range player who can increase 15-20 ppw on their average and feel that's not enough then good luck with that. Last season, outside of first year players, their were only 24 players in the 50-70 price range who increased more than 15 points (thanks Walesy) as follows:-

3 Rucks
7 Forwards
8 Mids
6 Defenders

This is why players who get a discount are like gold because they have proven an ability to score better than their price. Still need to tick the durability and job security boxes but they should be near the top of those being considered.

 

[Schulzenfest]

TBH I'm not even sure Veszpremi will score 65 again. Being able to find the ball a lot at TAC cup level means very little when playing for Sydney. Plus four games isn't enough time to prove you can score well, plus most pure small forwards are shit at DT (I think he's a pure small forward), plus I subscribe to the 'Sydney will be shit this year' theory. Anyway, he had finals scores of 41 and 26 and if you include those his average is just 55, which means he may not be as good value as everyone thinks.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

What are the major factors in winning DT at of 100%

eg: Starting squad could be 60%, luck 10%, strategy 15% and so on. Can someone give what percentagers they would rate each category that you htink is important in winning DT. (Trades, Patience) it could be anything.

Whats the importance of the starting squad??

Agree with Gopower
Vez has an unknown about him due to that he has only played 4 DT games. 2nd year players also dont feature well but im trying to reduce the unknown players. If a player had played 4 games and was priced at 220k possibly more if he doesnt get their price decrease than i wouldn't touch him, i am not ruling him at but will watch his NAB with intent.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

The difference is that these three players are given a lot of offensively responsibility in sides that have high scoring DT backlines. Isn't Brett Jones mainly used as a small defender?

Okay, so we differ on terminology. You say offensive responsibility, I say 'linkwork' - taking part in switching play and passing by foot around the defensive 50. This includes offensive roles, but is not limited to it. I'm also referring to the kick-to-kick that goes on so often these days.

Jones plays as a tall defender. Glass takes the opposing fullforward, and in 08 Jones more-often-than-not marked the opposition's leadup forward. His opponents this year from memory included Trav Cloke, Porplyzia, Lucas and Riewoldt. So its fair to say he was given some key roles.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Could i add, that Jones went for some serious surgery over the break i dont know what on but maybe his foot or ankle ?? (unsure). So i would be staying away, i dont think he has been up and running too much yet!!

 

[54Dogs]

What are the major factors in winning DT at of 100%

eg: Starting squad could be 60%, luck 10%, strategy 15% and so on. Can someone give what percentagers they would rate each category that you htink is important in winning DT. (Trades, Patience) it could be anything.

Whats the importance of the starting squad??

Would you like the quick answer or the detailed post?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

just like!!
Luck = 10%
Starting Squad = 50%
Research = 15%
Patience = 5%
Luck = 10%

and so on something like that

 

[Schulzenfest]

Starting Squad 1%
Trades 1%
Luck 98%

 

[Daz]

Starting Squad 1%
Trades 1%
Luck 98%

Geez, that Convicts bloke must be pretty lucky, 3rd in '07 and 1st in '08

 

[hamole]

30% Starting squad
40% Trades
20% Luck
20% Smart use of statistics .

 

[Lakey91]

I am not ruling him at but will watch his NAB with intent.

At this stage, im looking to pick 1-2 of alwyn davey, higgins, veszpremi, and lucas through looking at their pre-season form. I think are all around the same mark in where they are at and potential so will watch them extremely closely in NAB cup.

 

[Virgil]

just like!!
Luck = 10%
Starting Squad = 50%
Research = 15%
Patience = 5%
Luck = 10%

and so on something like that

I'll let you know once I've figured it out .

 

[Colin D'Cops]

just like!!
Luck = 10%
Starting Squad = 50%
Research = 15%
Patience = 5%
Luck = 10%

and so on something like that

Just wait a sec mate, I'll figure it out by the end of the night.

Just getting the calculator out right now...

 

[Virgil]

You might get there faster if you didn't keep htting the same three buttons over and over...

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Well maybe.....
85% starting squad (if its perfect it is a HUGE advantage)
trading 5% (becomes significantly easier with the perfect starting squad)
luck 5% (in getting the perfect starting squad you need a bit of luck)
research 5% (to get the perfect squad and for trades)

 

[Colin D'Cops]

But that's how you figure out the simple DT mathematic equations isn't it?

Well Fryzie said so, but then again, this is what he said beforehand ;

The Chad is simply an equation you gotta work out:

Trades remaining times your position on ladder add the amount of money left in salary cap divided by the size of your balls.

Edit - Replying to Virgil

 

[Colin D'Cops]

luck 5% (in getting the perfect starting squad you need a bit of luck)

A bit more luck is involved IMO.

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Geez, that Convicts bloke must be pretty lucky, 3rd in '07 and 1st in '08

Very................by that theory (98% luck) i'll get my 89 YO grandma to play this game (she won the lottery back in the mid 1900's.........75k!) She'd rip it up i reckon.