FanFooty Fanplanner 2009 (v2)

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Lakey91 said:
Ah no chance then. I mean it really is disappointing but even if he coulda got few preseason games under his belt he still would of been very underdone.
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HAWTHORN youngster Xavier Ellis is likely to miss the entire NAB Cup after undergoing hip surgery.

Hawthorn confirmed on Friday that Ellis had had an operation to repair cartilage in his hip and would be confined to rehabilitation before taking up light jogging for the next six to eight weeks.

Hawthorn’s football operations manager Mark Evans said Ellis would miss the pre-season competition, but that his availability for round one would depend on the speed of his recovery.

Ellis had carried a hip injury into the 2008 finals series and only decided to have it operated on after the soreness continued when he began pre-season training.

Ellis was dropped for the Hawks’ first final against the Western Bulldogs but came back to play a significant role in the preliminary final against St Kilda.

A week later he was Hawthorn’s highest possession winner in the grand final against Geelong, with 28 disposals and 14 marks.
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http://afl.com.au/News/NEWSARTICLE/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=70389
 
Who to replace him with. I read on monty's blog that coaches are staying away from heath shaw in droves, his av. is still resonable even though he sucked in 6 games. Surely collingwood have learnt something about countering his tag.

2005 6 games dt 68.0 sc 72.0
2006 21 games dt 89.4 sc 100.6
2007 22 games dt 84.9 sc 106.3
2008 18 games dt 81.8 sc 91.5
 
Interesting when you look at shaws low scores, he scored 21, 22, and 28 against the lowly teams of west coast, carlton, essendon. Thought it was surprising that it was these teams he struggled against last year. Then he scored just 59 and 39 against NM, though his career average is just 63 against NM, with just one score over 80 (120 in 2007). Then there was STK - 40. His durability looks to be very good too - if it wasnt for his off-field issues he would of played a full season last year, and he only missed one match in 2006-2007 seasons. Also (as mentioned), surely he must have learnt to better deal with a tag too...I think you could do alot worse than shaw.
 

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Lakey91 said:
Interesting when you look at shaws low scores, he scored 21, 22, and 28 against the lowly teams of west coast, carlton, essendon. Thought it was surprising that it was these teams he struggled against last year. Then he scored just 59 and 39 against NM, though his career average is just 63 against NM, with just one score over 80 (120 in 2007). Then there was STK - 40. His durability looks to be very good too - if it wasnt for his off-field issues he would of played a full season last year, and he only missed one match in 2006-2007 seasons. Also (as mentioned), surely he must have learnt to better deal with a tag too...I think you could do alot worse than shaw.
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Should be able to get him at a cheaper price though.
 
Pie Legend said:
Should be able to get him at a cheaper price though.
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Yes! Exactly what i was looking into. In 2006, shaw averaged 101.25 through the first 9 rounds (missed round one though), then for the next 7 rounds he averaged just 76.86, then for the last 6 he averaged 88.3.

In 2007, shaw averaged 104.16 through the first 6 rounds, then just 59.16 through the next 6, before averaging 88.8 over the last 10 rounds.

In 2008, shaw averaged 101.86 through the first 7 rounds, then averaged just 65.4 through the next 10, then in round 18 scoring 107 (id like to think he would have finished strongly.

So it would have been ideal to buy (upgrade) to shaw after rounds:

16 in 2006
12 in 2007 (assuming he would of continued trend explained)

Interesting that he seems to always have those down period before averaging strongly in the last few rounds. I guess identifying the right time to upgrade a cash cow/cheapie to shaw is the problem, though it would prove very rewarding (picking up great backline upgrade for probably a relatively cheap price).

From round 14 onwards in 2009 shaw has pretty good draw career average wise:

Round 13, Fremantle, Career Average of 52.3

Also good that he plays his worst team (statistically over his Career) the week before what is a pretty good run:

Round 14, Essendon, Career Average of 87
Round 15, Western Bulldogs, Career Average of 96.6
Round 16, Hawthorn, Career Average of 104.2
Round 17, Carlton, Career Average of 74.9
Round 18, Brisbane, Career Average of 84.5
Round 19, Adelaide, Career Average of 99
Round 20, Richmond, Career Average of 81
Round 21, Sydney, Career Average of 78
Round 22, Western Bulldogs, Career Average of 96.6

Average (career averages rounds 14-22) = 89 (5 higher than career average of 84).

Just some thoughts, obviously nothing definate as its all in hindsight!
 
Great Post Lakey.

Just to add to that, his start should be

Round 1, Adelaide, Career Average of 99
Round 2, Melbourne, Career Average of 83.8
Round 3, Cats, Career Average of 101.5
Round 4, Lions, Career Average of 84.5
Round 5, Essendon, Career Average of 87

So his average for the first 5 round should be 91.16, 7 better then overall average. That might encourage people to pick him up.

After that, he plays and averages as follows

Round 6, North, Career Average of 62.5
Round 7, Saints, Career Average of 77.5
Round 8, Carlton, Career Average of 74,9
Round 9, Eagles, Career Average of 71.6

Which would be an average of 71.625, making his price pretty tasty

Also, his record against the better teams is good, averaging over 100 against the Hawks and Cats.
 
I put him in the value range already, and if you decided you wanted to pick him up later in the year, might as well save yourself a trade and do it from the start. It's worth alot more to you than 30 or 40 grand.
 
tonemeister said:
I put him in the value range already, and if you decided you wanted to pick him up later in the year, might as well save yourself a trade and do it from the start. It's worth alot more to you than 30 or 40 grand.
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Haha 30 or 40 grand!? I remember picking up Heath in 2007 for under 250k... In fact I think I DOWNGRADED a rookie to him... Well worth a trade in my opinion.

Definitely wont start with him, I dont want to put up with 20s in my team.
 
banana_bus said:
I remember picking up Heath in 2007 for under 250k.
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I was just trying to assertain whether or not you guys felt that the pies have worked a way out a counter for his tag, obviously BB you feel that they won't be able to, fair enough. Relative to his 250k price tag when you picked him up in 2007 his 2009 price would be around 310k ish allowing for salary cap increases. Would that be about right? About 80k below his starting price now. His average after rd 10 in 2007 was 80.9 which would have been his low point i think. That was a great buy.
 
tonemeister said:
I was just trying to assertain whether or not you guys felt that the pies have worked a way out a counter for his tag, obviously BB you feel that they won't be able to, fair enough. Relative to his 250k price tag when you picked him up in 2007 his 2009 price would be around 310k ish allowing for salary cap increases. Would that be about right? About 80k below his starting price now. His average after rd 10 in 2007 was 80.9 which would have been his low point i think. That was a great buy.
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Well no one can be 100% sure that the pies have found a way to combat Shaw being tagged. Maybe Corrie was brought in to add another running option down back for this reason? Hence I will not be considering Shaw.
 
Yeh im not considering starting shaw in my team. Just thinking that in last 2-3 seasons you could of picked him up very cheaply and he could of averaged 85+ for you. I think there are more certain options than him from the start of the season.
 
Hey I reckon we should put our top 10 each posi excluding rucks for total points in '09
Backs (not in order)
1. Hodge
2. Newman
3. Cornes
4. Mackie
5. Goddard
6. Enright
7. Shaw
8. Bowden
9. Birch
10. Buckley
 

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Pie Legend said:
Haha GS aboard as well! :D
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You betcha!

car.gif
 
I was just thinking about top 10 backs as mentioned, and i thought its actually very hard to figure out a rank in terms of top 10 total points scored due to uncertainty over injury concerns - mackie, goddard, cornes, plus i would expect hodge to miss a couple with injury/suspension if anything so it kind of blurs top 10. Ill have a go though (bit of a roughy):

1. Hodge
2. Fisher
3. Goddard
4. Mackie
5. Bowden
6. Cornes
7. Newman
8. Enright
9. Gram
10. Wheatley
 
Have i missed any quality discussion in any of the threads that i should read over, i havnt been on from 25th NOV - 7th DEC
 
Buddyman said:
Hey I reckon we should put our top 10 each posi excluding rucks for total points in '09
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Some of the No Passengers members had a go at this back in October. I'm sure the whole thread will be moved across in due time, but for now I thought I'd post here what I wrote.

Beau_Waters for PM said:
Okay, the way I've approached my 2009 Dream Team prediction was to look at this years' Dream Team (i.e. the top scoring players in each position), and then make a judgement on whether I believe they will be there again next year. So, in other words, I have based this on the assumption that the players who performed well will do so again next year unless I can prove otherwise.

Defenders

Brendon Goddard
Will be one of the elite DT defenders next season. He managed to finish in the top 7 even though he missed the first two games of the season. Priced at an average of 90 and many believe he is better than that. Averaged 97 in 2006 so we know what he can do. Extremely consistent, only 2 games below 70 for the season! Good luck to those who will wait for him to bottom-out in price next season! Not as injury-prone as people think, however he has never played a full season. Always manages to miss at least one game. Keep that in mind.

Joel Bowden
He hasn't averaged below 87 this century! Incredible. In fact, his 98.4 average this season was his best ever. Those two games of 173 and 180 sure helped him out though. I made the mistake of paying top dollar for him at the start of the season. He has been a slow starter the last few years, and even if he starts off well he is almost guaranteed to bottom out sometime. I can't see him averaging less than 90 next season, and that should put him in the top defenders even if he misses a game or two, which is unlikely given his brilliant run with injury over his career.

Chad Cornes
Ok, so he's almost the forgotten man. In fact, I must admit I almost forgot about him. Only averaged 85 in his injury-plagued 08, after 101.4 in 07, 90 in 06 and 96 in 05. Gun. Assuming he plays at least 20 games next season (history says that is almost guaranteed) then he will finish in the top seven fantasy defenders. In case you've forgotten, his first five scores of 2008 were 116, 58, 152, 103 & 112. Enough said.

Sam Fisher
Top defender on total points in 08, was handy in 2007 also (average of 85). Will be going into his 6th season in 2009, and has consistently improved each year. His brilliant finals campaign will mean that he'll feature in a lot of teams next season, I imagine. Will average around 90 playing the same role he always has.

Jordan McMahon & Chris Newman
McMahon
Finished with an average of 84 from 22 games, which was enough to make him the third best defender of 2008 on total points. He needs to improve his consistency, with 6 scores below 70 this season, a similar stat to 07. Being at the Tigers has benefited him, since he plays alongside Newman and King, who play similar roles. His average of 84 was up from his past 3 at the Dogs, were he only managed 71, 74 and 71. I can see him going for about 85 again in 09. If he can lift the amount of ball he gets, he will get higher than this - every time he got 25+ disposals this season he scored above 90.

Newman
Averaged a tick under 82 , up from 76 in 2007 and 58 in an injury-plagued 06. He's on the rise. Newman tends to get slightly less disposals than McMahon, but his kick:hb ratio is 2:1, while Jordan's is closer to 3:2. Everything else is fairly similar. I see both improving next season so they will be right up there again at an average around 85.

How do their DT scores correlate with each other and with Jake King? I wanted to find out so I ran the numbers through Excel.

2cpqn9g.jpg

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2cpqn9g&s=4

With King in the team, McMahon's scores seem to be roughly correlated with King's scores. But with King out (from Round 12 onwards), there is a very distinct correlation between McMahon's scores and Newman's scores. So, from this I would say that Newman and McMahon do not "steal points" from each other, rather they complement each other. When one performs bad the other does too.

I can't decide on the 7th defender. So I'm going to mount a case for three different guys.

Nathan Bock
Bock is an interesting one. He probably doesn't do as well as some may think. He only had 4 scores over 100 this season, one of those being the huge 151 he got while running off Franklin. He is, however, fairly consistent, with only 3 scores under 65 for the H&A season. He had 9 scores in the 70-90 range. He will have the odd big game where he nabs 10+ marks (did that 3 times this season), but most of the time he is fairly reliable for 75. He's a 22-game player too, so that boosts his attractiveness. Pencil him in for an average of 80-85 next season. He'll be on the fringe of the best 7 defenders, but I'd say he's one of the safer choices.

Andrew Mackie
Had an average of 91 for the H&A season. I believe his relatively poor finals series may turn a few off. Injury is a major concern for him. He missed 4 games this season, 1 game last season, 8 games in 06 and 14 games in 05 (not sure if he was injured or dropped). In his debut season he missed 10 games. I love watching him play, but the injury concern is a major turn-off. 07 was his best season injury-wise.

Considering his hefty price tag, I would be looking to trade him in rather than have him in my Round 1 squad. Having said that, I can see him averaging 95. In the entire H&A season he only had 6 games below 85, which is an incredible achievement. The odd 30+ possession game boosts his average too, and I can see more of those next season.

Grant Birchall
This guy is Mr.Consistent. 13 scores in the 80-100 range this season. His season average of is deflated by the game he scored 24 when he was blanketed by Monfries. Apart from that game (9 disposals), he only had under 19 disposals in ONE game in 2008, and that was against Sydney. He's played every game in the last two seasons, making him a great 22-game premium. To maximise this benefit, you'd be best off picking him in your initial squad. In addition to the fact that he is undervalued by about $13,000. In a gun hawks side that boasts Guerra as the #1 taggable backman, I think Birchall will be a good pickup in 2009 and should average around 85.

Notable absentees:

Jared Brennan - finished 2008 as the 2nd best defender on total points, but I just can't bring myself to include him in my team! Although there is no rational reason why he can't be in the top 7 again in 09.

Paul Wheatley - great average, but like Mackie has a horrendous injury history. Might be one you look to upgrade to mid-season (assuming he has got his injury games out of the way by then).

Luke Hodge - Firstly, at the time of writing this, I'm presuming Hodge will only be a mid. If he is classified a defender, then he'll probably be up there in the top 10 backs. However, there are two things that I am wary of: 1) I believe he will be getter more attention from opposition teams and may produce H.Shaw-like scores. I expect him to be a bit up and down, making him a great trade-in. 2) Injury and suspension risk don't weigh in his favour either. He has a bad run with both of these, and therefore even if he averages 90 but misses 4 games then he may slip out of the top 10 defenders list.

Enright - at the time of writing, I didn't expect him to be a defender.

On the verge: Gram, Waite, Symes, Roughead, Scott Stevens
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Just been doing a little homework because i'm stuck at home with a bad back and i'm feeling a bit bored. Looking through the convicts team from last year and he ended up with 15 keepers from the starting lineup, including the entire ruck combo. At this stage i've got 16 possibly 17 that i'm hoping to hold. There's bound to be a few go down injured and the inevitable double trades to upgrade, how many keepers do you see in your team so far?
 
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