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How much is research worth at this point though?

- No/little information about best 22s
- No/little information about team structure (no draft/trade period yet)
- Thus, no/little information about positional changes
- No/little information about pre-seasons

All research on this point is basically based on:

- previous scoring
- previous durability
- natural improvement from season to season
- Gut instinct
- Perceived "value"

Everything else is basically just a guess really.


Anyways, it is interesting to note which players finished 2008 strongly though, and had a good 2009:

CORRECT
Gram averaged 91.0 over last 8 rounds of 2008 - TICK
Sylvia averaged 90.44 over last 9 matches of home and away season. - TICK
Goddard averaged 100.375 over the last 16 games, and 115 over the last 7 - TICK
Montagna averaged 98.4 over last 10 matches of 2008 (including finals) - TICK
Hayes averaged 100.36 over the last 11 rounds - TICK
Sewell averaged 109 over last 5 matches, including finals - TICK
Daniel Jackson averaged 92.6 over last 5 rounds of 2008 - TICK
Waite averaged 85.78 after round 3 - TICK (until injured)
Hargrave averaged 87 over last 13 rounds of 2008 - TICK
Gibbs averaged 100.56 over last 9 rounds of 2008 - TICK
Mundy averaged 78.8 over last 6 matches - TICK
Leon Davis averaged 94.29 over last 7 matches - TICK
Lewis averaged 98.11 over the last nine matches of the season, including finals - TICK

Interestingly, 9/13 were from top 8 teams.

INDIFFERENT
Tuck averaged 109.08 over last 12 rounds of season - HALF TICK?
Enright averaged 101.7 over last 10 rounds of 2008 - HALF TICK?
Deledio averaged 112 over last 6 matches, and 104.5 over last 14

FAILURES
Birchall averaged 90.75 in last 8 matches (including finals, and three tonnes)
Buckley average 90.33 over last 6 matches of home and away season
Simmonds averaged 94 over last 9 rounds of 2008
Brogan averaged 92.2 over his last 5 matches of 2008
Van Berlo averaged 97.64* from round 8 till the end of the season
Sam Fisher averaged 99.1 over last 9 rounds of 2008
Newman averaged 93.8 over the last 5
Brennan averaged 97.9 over last 10 rounds
Hille averaged 93.4 over his last 9 matches of 2008
McPharlin averaged 85.29 over last 7 rounds of 2008
Rischitelli averaged 88.2 over last 9 matches

Only 3/11 were in top 8 teams.



So, maybe look for players who:

- play in a top 8 team
- play in an improving team (few saints in that list for example)
- finished 2009 strongly
- Not ruckman :)p)
- Also show signs of natural improvement (newman, fisher have been in their scoring range for a couple of years now)

Something to think about.
 
All you need to do for research at this stage is set out to watch and re-watch every one of the 185 AFL games this season and possibly some of the NAB cup too:p. Also, great research Lakey but i wouldn't say Delidio was a failure, even though he wasn't really a success.
 
FanPlanner is good though just to check different player combinations - no new knowledge is needed for that. For example, dropping a player for someone cheaper and then seeing how much cash is opened up to upgrade someone else. Then comparing the two combinations to see which one you prefer. Of course, choosing which combination you prefer can only be based on past stats/gut instinct.
 
Ball Hog said:
All you need to do for research at this stage is set out to watch and re-watch every one of the 185 AFL games this season and possibly some of the NAB cup too:p. Also, great research Lakey but i wouldn't say Delidio was a failure, even though he wasn't really a success.
Click to expand...

Well, looking at the last half or quarter of the year is probably a good exercise - trying to find those players who finished the year strongly.

I didnt look up any averages for the above players, I just classed them on what they averaged from my memory, so theres bound to be a couple that a wrong.

Deledio averaged 96, so he stayed about the same level. He did finish 2009 strongly as well:

Averaged 112.5 over last 6 (averaged 112 over last 6 in 2008 too)
Averaged 102.36 over last 11 (104 over last 14 in 2008)

Maybe he is just a slow starter?

HibSam said:
FanPlanner is good though just to check different player combinations - no new knowledge is needed for that. For example, dropping a player for someone cheaper and then seeing how much cash is opened up to upgrade someone else. Then comparing the two combinations to see which one you prefer. Of course, choosing which combination you prefer can only be based on past stats/gut instinct.
Click to expand...

I think what your trying to get at is the varying combinations, and thus the varying structures. Playing around with different structures (ie starting no rookies, starting 1 rookie, starting 3 rookies, and starting 5 rookies) and all the realms in between is a good exercise.
 
Ball Hog said:
All you need to do for research at this stage is set out to watch and re-watch every one of the 185 AFL games this season...
Click to expand...

Now that's an awesome way to get the edge!

Be back on here next week fellaz, I've got some research to do!
 
Lakey91 said:
I think what your trying to get at is the varying combinations, and thus the varying structures. Playing around with different structures (ie starting no rookies, starting 1 rookie, starting 3 rookies, and starting 5 rookies) and all the realms in between is a good exercise.
Click to expand...

Yeah, something along those lines, you worded it a little better:eek:.
 
Lakey91 said:
How much is research worth at this point though?

- No/little information about best 22s
- No/little information about team structure (no draft/trade period yet)
- Thus, no/little information about positional changes
- No/little information about pre-seasons
Click to expand...

I think there is some interesting information that comes out at this point of the year actually, generally on an injury front. The Dogs have already announced that a few of their players will have off-season surgery, and today's HUN stated that Josh Fraser would not have reconstructive surgery, but would have to be managed through the pre-season. Then of course there is trade week, which is mostly speculation at this point, but a few trades seem all but finalised (Hall to the Dogs, McLean to Carlton, etc).
 

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Lakey91 said:
Anyways, it is interesting to note which players finished 2008 strongly though, and had a good 2009:

CORRECT
Gram averaged 91.0 over last 8 rounds of 2008 - TICK
Sylvia averaged 90.44 over last 9 matches of home and away season. - TICK
Goddard averaged 100.375 over the last 16 games, and 115 over the last 7 - TICK
Montagna averaged 98.4 over last 10 matches of 2008 (including finals) - TICK
Hayes averaged 100.36 over the last 11 rounds - TICK
Sewell averaged 109 over last 5 matches, including finals - TICK
Daniel Jackson averaged 92.6 over last 5 rounds of 2008 - TICK
Waite averaged 85.78 after round 3 - TICK (until injured)
Hargrave averaged 87 over last 13 rounds of 2008 - TICK
Gibbs averaged 100.56 over last 9 rounds of 2008 - TICK
Mundy averaged 78.8 over last 6 matches - TICK
Leon Davis averaged 94.29 over last 7 matches - TICK
Lewis averaged 98.11 over the last nine matches of the season, including finals - TICK

Interestingly, 9/13 were from top 8 teams.

INDIFFERENT
Tuck averaged 109.08 over last 12 rounds of season - HALF TICK?
Enright averaged 101.7 over last 10 rounds of 2008 - HALF TICK?
Deledio averaged 112 over last 6 matches, and 104.5 over last 14

FAILURES
Birchall averaged 90.75 in last 8 matches (including finals, and three tonnes)
Buckley average 90.33 over last 6 matches of home and away season
Simmonds averaged 94 over last 9 rounds of 2008
Brogan averaged 92.2 over his last 5 matches of 2008
Van Berlo averaged 97.64* from round 8 till the end of the season
Sam Fisher averaged 99.1 over last 9 rounds of 2008
Newman averaged 93.8 over the last 5
Brennan averaged 97.9 over last 10 rounds
Hille averaged 93.4 over his last 9 matches of 2008
McPharlin averaged 85.29 over last 7 rounds of 2008
Rischitelli averaged 88.2 over last 9 matches

Only 3/11 were in top 8 teams.



So, maybe look for players who:

- play in a top 8 team
- play in an improving team (few saints in that list for example)
- finished 2009 strongly
- Not ruckman :)p)
- Also show signs of natural improvement (newman, fisher have been in their scoring range for a couple of years now)

Something to think about.
Click to expand...

Makes me feel better about currently having Petterd, Harbrow and Symes in my backline for 2010.

All players finished off the year well and are either in an improving side and/or top 8 side:

Petterd - rd 15 to 20; 104, 75, 83, 122, 84, 69 avg 89.5 (rd 21 got injuried) + in an improving side.

Harbrow - rd 18 to 22; 78, 64, 123, 97, 95 avg 91.4 + in top 8 side and still improving.

Symes - rd 17 to 22; 83, 47, 130, 82, 99, 95 avg 89.3 + in top 8 side and IMO can still improve.

Thoughts on those players?
 
Both petterd and bate (ave 95.88 over last 8) had excellent finishes to the year, and have thus demanded at least some consideration for selection in 2009.

Bate however seems to strike me in the 'travis cloke' or 'dale thomas' mould - always tempting and showing promising signs, but your never quite sure when his breakout year will actually be. Thats just me though (and i did get burnt from cloke this year!).

Harbrow has a lot of potential.

Symes has the upside in my opinion, but im just not sure about his durability. Has averaged 84.7/61/80.1 and 79.8 over the last 4 years, so he may well be fully priced unless he can have his first injury free season (12/6/15/18 games in last four years) - Not sure id be willing to pay for someone at that price with such durability concerns.

Certainly some players to think about though.
 
Symes would have been injury free if he had not have fallen off the back of the car in the pre season and broke both of his wrists.
 
dylan123 said:
Symes would have been injury free if he had not have fallen off the back of the car in the pre season and broke both of his wrists.
Click to expand...
I know - i actually followed the adelaide preseason very closely last season due to the high quality training reports that are produced over on the crows board.

His previous durability is still a worry though, but thats just my opinion - i certainly understand the interest in him though, and he is by no means crossed of my list (no one is though! :p ).
 
Lakey91 said:
I know - i actually followed the adelaide preseason very closely last season due to the high quality training reports that are produced over on the crows board.

His previous durability is still a worry though, but thats just my opinion - i certainly understand the interest in him though, and he is by no means crossed of my list (no one is though! :p ).
Click to expand...

I'm still a bit worried whether he's locked in the best 22 TBH. Got the feeling if things went sour he could be a scapegoat type. Crows (as always) will be looking for more games in their 2nd year players next year so someone has to make way.
 
I think Symes will really benefit from the Crows new gamestyle - lots of possessions across half-back while they try to breakout down the zone and free up a player to take the kick. Players like Doughty, Symes, McLeod, Edwards, Vince, Mackay, Thompson, Otten and Goodwin all get involved and share the ball around = more DT points for everyone.
 
54Dogs said:
I'm still a bit worried whether he's locked in the best 22 TBH. Got the feeling if things went sour he could be a scapegoat type. Crows (as always) will be looking for more games in their 2nd year players next year so someone has to make way.
Click to expand...
That is the main concern for me if i was to consider getting him into my side. This year i think he was always just in the 22 and had a lot pushing to take his role. Craig seems to like the role he plays in the side (getting the coach award this year (cant remember the name of it)). So long as he stays on Craig's good side i guess he will be safe.
 
Draft for my first ever DT:

- Hodge, Enright, Fisher, Walker, Waters, Ladson, Maguire (rookie, rookie)

- Gibbs, Bartel, Green, Young, Boak, Scully (Morabito, Blease)

- Clark, Hill (Warnock, Cordy)

- Pav, Buddy, Boomer, Rioli, Porplyzia, Hall, Talia (rookie, rookie)

Any glaringly obvious problems?
 
jonoman89 said:
Draft for my first ever DT:

- Hodge, Enright, Fisher, Walker, Waters, Ladson, Maguire (rookie, rookie)

- Gibbs, Bartel, Green, Young, Boak, Scully (Morabito, Blease)

- Clark, Hill (Warnock, Cordy)

- Pav, Buddy, Boomer, Rioli, Porplyzia, Hall, Talia (rookie, rookie)

Any glaringly obvious problems?
Click to expand...

Personally, I think that it's WAY too early to post your team - we haven't even had trade week yet!
 
May do a bit of research on Jackson Trengove today (who i expect to go pick #2 to melbourne). Hopefully a C/F. I have looked up his recent scores and stats in the SANFL

finals3 - 29 touches 104 DT points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/FINALS/Glenelg_Sturt.pdf

finals2 - 19 touches DT points 69
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/FINALS/sturt_eagles.pdf

finals1 - 15 touches 64 DT points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/FINALS/FINALS_Central_Sturt.pdf

round 23 - 20 touches 86DT points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/R23/R23_port_sturt.pdf

round 22 16 touches 61 DT points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/R22/R22_central_sturt.pdf

round 20 - 26 touches 79 dt points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/R20/R20_sturt_west.pdf

round 18 16 touches 76 dt points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/North v Sturt Round 18.pdf

Something that seems to stand out to me is the lack of tackles. We all love 4 points for a tackle, hopefully it is jsut me and he will be a fine DTer.

For those in SA the SANFL grand final is on ABC1 at 3:30. Keeping a close eye on him (number 40 for sturt).
 
chadleverington said:
May do a bit of research on Jackson Trengove today (who i expect to go pick #2 to melbourne). Hopefully a C/F. I have looked up his recent scores and stats in the SANFL

finals3 - 29 touches 104 DT points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/FINALS/Glenelg_Sturt.pdf

finals2 - 19 touches DT points 69
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/FINALS/sturt_eagles.pdf

finals1 - 15 touches 64 DT points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/FINALS/FINALS_Central_Sturt.pdf

round 23 - 20 touches 86DT points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/R23/R23_port_sturt.pdf

round 22 16 touches 61 DT points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/R22/R22_central_sturt.pdf

round 20 - 26 touches 79 dt points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/R20/R20_sturt_west.pdf

round 18 16 touches 76 dt points
http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/North v Sturt Round 18.pdf

Something that seems to stand out to me is the lack of tackles. We all love 4 points for a tackle, hopefully it is jsut me and he will be a fine DTer.

For those in SA the SANFL grand final is on ABC1 at 3:30. Keeping a close eye on him (number 40 for sturt).
Click to expand...

Thanks Chad, will have a look.
 

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