FNF in Sydney/Brisbane

[Fred Nerk]

thats really the key isnt it, AFL doesent need to beat the NRL on a friday night, it just needs to rate better than what 7 would have otherwise. or even slightly worse, because of the big investment they have in it. thats all that is required to see AFL FNF in NSWQLD

what do you think, chrisfooty, littleduck et al. how would the ratings in QLD and NSW compare between a movie going against the NRL to FNF going against the NRL?

does this answer your question?

Sydneysiders love Patrick Swayze more than footy
12 September 2005 Herald Sun
Damian Barrett

PATRICK Swayze's hip-grinding moves in Dirty Dancing, the cult movie released 18 years ago, were of more interest to Sydney TV viewers last Friday than the Swans-Geelong semi-final.

So too was the ABC's Silent Witness, the second day of the fifth Ashes Test on SBS, and the rugby league on Channel 9.


At least Sydney viewers were prepared to channel surf late in the Swans match, with the peak of 378,000 recorded about the time Nick Davis booted his match-winning goal. While Ten recorded great results nationally for its coverage of the second semi-final, the difficulty in penetrating the Sydney market was again underlined. For the duration of the match Sydney's average audience was about 230,000. Between 8.30-9.30, it ran fifth behind all other free-to-air networks.

The rugby league final between Wests Tigers and North Queensland dominated Friday night viewing in Sydney, peaking at 561,000.

Despite the hit on Sydney, Ten still managed a national average audience of 1.152 million for the Swans match. Saturday night's Adelaide-Port Adelaide final had a national average of 1.241 million.

If a Swans finals match is beaten b a movie imagine a regular FNF game.

 

[littleduck]

Ch7/Ch10 can create an AFL market in NSW/QLD, but not by going head to head with NRL or ARU, especially on Friday nights. NRL or ARU are part of those state's cultures and to try and supplant them will simply get people's backs up and create an anti-AFL backlash. Ch7/Ch10 need to gradually nurture a market serving those who are already AFL fans plus those who don't mind a bit of something different.
However on Friday nights Ch7/Ch10 have to be able to schedule the game better than 1am in the morning. The use of lead in part-entertainment/part-football programs like Ch10's "Before the Game" will help. Then perhaps play home games near live but delay away games. AFL fans will have to cut some slack cut for the commercial realities the stations face.

whats your view on the ratings possibilities for ch 7 replaying AFL FNF in syd/bris after a LIVE telecast has already concluded on Fox Footy?

i would argue ch 7 wouldnt be too keen to put it on as early as possible as the supremely passionate and those with a passing interest with payTv would already have viewed the live telecast at home or elsewhere.

 

[Powerstufff]

whats your view on the ratings possibilities for ch 7 replaying AFL FNF in syd/bris after a LIVE telecast has already concluded on Fox Footy?.......

I don't think Ch7 (or 10) will craft a pay TV deal that would put them in that position. They would not want to dilute an already small audience.

....i would argue ch 7 wouldnt be too keen to put it on as early as possible as the supremely passionate and those with a passing interest with payTv would already have viewed the live telecast at home or elsewhere.

Ch 7 (or 10) are doomed with AFL in the NSW/QLD markets if they rely on those groups, and if I know it they know it.
They have to rely on inertia (reluctance to change channels), curiosity and cautious segueing between programming to take a worthwhile no. of viewers on into the AFL match. You can bet this will be hard as Ch9 will be putting everything it has into disrupting 7 and 10s efforts.

 

[littleduck]

I don't think Ch7 (or 10) will craft a pay TV deal that would put them in that position. They would not want to dilute an already small audience.
Ch 7 (or 10) are doomed with AFL in the NSW/QLD markets if they rely on those groups, and if I know it they know it.
They have to rely on inertia (reluctance to change channels), curiosity and cautious segueing between programming to take a worthwhile no. of viewers on into the AFL match. You can bet this will be hard as Ch9 will be putting everything it has into disrupting 7 and 10s efforts.

You seem to be talking about the lead-in program... if 7 are to broadcast a delayed telecast on Friday Night surely the lead-in program is irrelevant if NRL Friday Night Footy on 9 attracts the bulk of the viewers... equally, even if 7 broadcast a live telecast at 7.30pm, the bulk of viewers will still switch to 9, thus leaving the 7pm lead-in program as irrelevant.

ps. it will be interesting to see what 9 will telecast as the lead-in at 7pm... if 7 broadcast live AFL i reckon itd be a good idea to start the coverage a 7pm and get an early jump on the NRL telecast on 9.

 

[FuManchu]

Prove it.

How well have 7's "movies" or whatever fare they've been dishing up against Nine's NRL been rating on a Friday night so far?

How about 10?

Got some ratings info?

And please don't give me any of the crap that Littleduck has been serving up about building shareholder wealth, Corporate responsibility or Pythagoras' theorem of Verbose Multiplicity.

Its not a matter of prove it, its a matter of Ch 7 just wont put AFL directly up against NRL.

So instead of spending all that money, having it look bad in the rating comparibly, 7 will put a movie or a second rate series or something in prime time Friday nights.

Why would they subject their number one commercial product to a demoralising defeat and potentially harm its status?

They can take the loss on a film or whatever, with little investment made, so little loss made. Its better being sold off for more revenue elsewhere, where the audience can be more selective and the advertising more targeted, increasing revenues even further.

 

[Powerstufff]

You seem to be talking about the lead-in program... if 7 are to broadcast a delayed telecast on Friday Night surely the lead-in program is irrelevant if NRL Friday Night Footy on 9 attracts the bulk of the viewers... equally, even if 7 broadcast a live telecast at 7.30pm, the bulk of viewers will still switch to 9, thus leaving the 7pm lead-in program as irrelevant.
ps. it will be interesting to see what 9 will telecast as the lead-in at 7pm... if 7 broadcast live AFL i reckon itd be a good idea to start the coverage a 7pm and get an early jump on the NRL telecast on 9.

I'm not talking about going anywhere near head to head with NRL in the NSW/QLD markets. Especially not in Sydney. Start a game there at 7pm and it looks like what it is, a cheap ploy to divert people from the rugby codes. It would get people's backs up and be a marketing disaster. But play it at 10pm, showing due deference to the rugby codes, and it may be another story. Yes 10pm is late but it's not the 'get stuffed' attitude of Ch9 to AFL which puts it on at 1pm over there.
A decent lead-in program is important but nothing changes there. Ch's 7 and 10 will have always been trying to keep some viewers while the Friday night rugby is on. It is just that now football can follow on.
As Fu Manchu says :".....Ch 7 just won't put AFL directly up against NRL. So instead of spending all that money, having it look bad in the rating comparably, 7 will put a movie or a second rate series or something in prime time Friday nights......". In time this practice may allow Ch's 7 and 10 to build a niche market for AFL in NSW and QLD where one hardly exists now, and to do so without sacrificing their prime time slots. Most of the money Ch's 7 and 10 will make from AFL will be outside NSW and QLD. They only have to lift the ratings a few points within NSW and QLD, in the time-slots they choose, before they make good money there as well.
As I said earlier Pay TV may or may not feature. It can only buy what the FTA channels sell to it.

 

[zero]

If a Swans finals match is beaten b a movie imagine a regular FNF game.

actually, it was beaten by cricket, NRL AND a movie. im sure every other sport fan was on the other 2 channels, and the non sporting demographic was watching the film. afl, being the third most popular sport, was getting third bite of the sporting watchers, perhaps the numbers would have been different had the cricket not been on.

christ i love all afl but if its a choice of a final between two teams that arent mine and the ashes the ashes probably would have won out for a majority of the evening. and the other TV in our house (or "the girlfriends' TV") would have had swayze. in an AFL household even WE would have been rating for the cricket and patrick, that night.

but your point is well taken. its sure tough for afl up north, especially sydney.

one thing that i have to point out is that, yeah ok those ratings suck, but its still a hell of alot better than not being shown at all, or on at 2 AM when the viewership is 0. the game came last on the night, but 380 thousand saw nick davis kick that goal, and thats better than them not. bad ratings is one thing, but it has to be better than NO ratings.

 

[zero]

powerstuff, how bad do you think bad ratings would effect the overall popularity of the game? how much brand damage is actually done by articles like what nerk showed before? i cant see it being that bad, honestly. certainly not in the hopoate range. its only really laughed at by a few leagies.

poor ratings.... so only a few people watch it, so what? at least a few people are watching it, increasing the chances of more doing it again next time.

i would guess, that deferring to the NRL and showing the game after the first NRL game for the evening, 9:30 or whatever, would be good for catching the general, sport loving fans that would switch over.

but then again, the trouble with 2 friday night NRL games is, you are basically locked out of the market for the entire evening. i think, if you are going to rate badly at 9:30 or 10:30, when you are still up against NRL anyway, then you might as well just play it in prime time, when the actual viewership is much higher. get a similar sized slice of a much larger pie.

what im trying to say, i guess, is as far as the development of the afl is concerned, it isnt where the game places in the ratings that is most important, its the actual numbers watching. i think a primetime friday night AFL game would be good for all those auskick kids playing football up there to have the oppurtunity to see before bed.

besides, all the sport loving australians that are NRL-heads first but dont have the cash for paytv (and im thinking this is a large demographic of the very big NSWQLD market), have no choice but to watch AFL on the saturday, because their crappy TV agreement doesent allow for FTA saturday games.

we get that demo on saturday, and as big numbers as we can on friday night. that means make it early, 7:30. head to head with NRL. this is the fastest way to build the niche market that exists for AFL up north. keep swans and lions games on saturday, obviously, but play FNF in prime time.

bring it on, 7. you know its the right thing to do.

cmon, andy d, FORCE those mofos to show it.

 

[bloodsports]

100 % correct.

And Fred Nerk and all his Rugby loving mates who come on here know this,
thats why they are praying like crazy that Aussie rules does not get shown live into Sydney.

Lucky for aussie rules the AFL knows the facts of what you have pointed out. Some ratings are better than none, and with time the game will grow and spread and take over that rank and disgusting code that the pommies taught them to play up there.

 

[Fred Nerk]

100 % correct.

And Fred Nerk and all his Rugby loving mates who come on here know this,
thats why they are praying like crazy that Aussie rules does not get shown live into Sydney.

Lucky for aussie rules the AFL knows the facts of what you have pointed out. Some ratings are better than none, and with time the game will grow and spread and take over that rank and disgusting code that the pommies taught them to play up there.

I hope they do show it live. It will get smashed and there's no excuses.

 

[zero]

I hope they do show it live. It will get smashed and there's no excuses.

what excuses? the REASON it wont rate is because its not very popular.

but in 10 years time, who knows?

 

[Vader]

As far as I can tell, the winner in Brisbane/Sydney on Friday nights will probably be the channel NOT showing the footy.

Ch9 will have the NRL on all night - frankly I'd rather watch grass grow (but that's just my opinion).

One of Ch7/Ch10 will be showing the AFL - most likely a match not featuring either Sydney or Brisbane, in which case the "care factor" north of the Murray would be fairly close to zero (limited pretty much to ex-pats like myself).

That leaves one commercial station to pick up all the viewers with little interest in sport. I'd say they're likely to view it as a ratings bonanza!

 

[littleduck]

Remember that regardless of whether 7 will replay FNF in Syd/Bris at 9.30 or 10.30 they will be losing viewers not only to 9 for the NRL coverage, but will have also lost the hardcore AFL follower and the marginally interested RL follower (its not hard to watch NRL FNF on 9 and follow progress scores on Fox Footy) to the live coverage on Fox Footy.... so in all seriousness, what would be there target market???

 

[Powerstufff]

powerstuff, how bad do you think bad ratings would effect the overall popularity of the game? how much brand damage is actually done by articles like what nerk showed before?.........

It's hard to say, ratings are only part of the picture. My gut feeling is that at present bad ratings in Sydney* would be the best thing for AFL, but not as bad as they are now.
Why is that you ask? It is because AFL is not a threat there, it is a decent sized niche sport and that is probably its most tenable position as things stand. It attracts sponsorship and has little kids coming to Auskick and the like. It can quietly grow and thrive, like soccer has done so successfully.
At present in NSW AFL draws condescending little articles like the one a while back about a Swans game being beaten by Iron Chef. But if ratings for AFL lifted significantly in Sydney, especially to the detriment of the rugby codes, you might find the sporting media there much more hostile. Parochial articles along the lines of "Our sporting culture is under threat...". This permeates to families, advertisers and the like. You might find more people watching on TV but, counter-intuitively, finances and junior participation suffering.
Look at local soccer if you aren't sure about this. There may be vague unease about its potential but it doesn't seriously poke its head up against either AFL or the rugby codes on TV. Yet it is doing very well, especially at junior level.

........i would guess, that deferring to the NRL and showing the game after the first NRL game for the evening, 9:30 or whatever, would be good for catching the general, sport loving fans that would switch over.
But then again, the trouble with 2 friday night NRL games is, you are basically locked out of the market for the entire evening........

I confess ignorance here, especially in earlier replies to littleduck. I didn't know there were 2 NRL games on Fri nights. There is only one AFL game played in that time. Maybe littleduck is right and that a 7pm start is required. Or maybe you need to play AFL against the later match.

......... i think, if you are going to rate badly at 9:30 or 10:30, when you are still up against NRL anyway, then you might as well just play it in prime time, when the actual viewership is much higher. get a similar sized slice of a much larger pie...........

Perhaps so. But remember Ch7/10 in NSW/QLD are not up for some heroic AFL v NRL battle against Ch9. They will want to make more money out of AFL than Ch9 has bothered trying to do to this time. But they are not going to take a significant financial hit in Fri evening prime time 22 weeks a year.

* For simplicity I refer to Sydney in this reply, rather than the broader NSW/QLD I've used in earlier posts. Sydney and northern QLD are clearly the hardest nuts the AFL needs to crack. There is some decent interest in AFL in regional NSW and southern QLD.

 

[littleduck]

At present in NSW AFL draws condescending little articles like the one a while back about a Swans game being beaten by Iron Chef.

Written by a Melbourne-based AFL journo no less...

But if ratings for AFL lifted significantly in Sydney, especially to the detriment of the rugby codes, you might find the sporting media there much more hostile.

"if"

I confess ignorance here, especially in earlier replies to littleduck. I didn't know there were 2 NRL games on Fri nights.

From 2007 onwards only under the new broadcast arrangements.

As there will be 3 Qld teams from 2007 its reasonable to expect that the live 7.30 FNF telecast will nearly always involve 1 of the 3 Qld teams... which means the FNF ratings in Brisbane/Qld from 2007 onwards could reasonably be expected to go through the roof and remain consistently strong for the whole season.

Perhaps so. But remember Ch7/10 in NSW/QLD are not up for some heroic AFL v NRL battle against Ch9.

Yeah, only the bigfooty membership wants to fight that fight!