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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Free Kick differential over the last 15 years
- Thread starter Unique Name
- Start date
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- Sep 22, 2011
- 41,877
- 91,423
- AFL Club
- Essendon
have fun arguing over something that literally has less than 1% impact on season performance
FOOTY IS ALL ABOUT THE ONE PERCENTERS
My under 11 coach taught me
Victorians hate losing to raiders ....
Its not about Victorians
Its all across the country, even in your state, calling out the absurdity
The Falcon Strike
Hall of Famer
Anyone got the break down of stats as to frees for and against
I recall a year back when north (I think) were leading differentials and we were third - our actual frees for were very much in line with the average (possibly lower)
However the standout was the frees against - we gave significantly less away
Be interested to see if that holds across the years
I recall a year back when north (I think) were leading differentials and we were third - our actual frees for were very much in line with the average (possibly lower)
However the standout was the frees against - we gave significantly less away
Be interested to see if that holds across the years
#freekickfreekick
I’m over discussing something that actually has very little effect on the game
Name a game this season west coast would have lost if the umpiring was different ...
The closest match was Carlton ....at mcg and for the frees that day were 26-15 Carlton’s way
Name a game this season west coast would have lost if the umpiring was different ...
The closest match was Carlton ....at mcg and for the frees that day were 26-15 Carlton’s way
Why single out Victorians?
No such team as the Victorians in the NFL so they never lost to the raiders. The raiders are now defunct if I am correct.
Raiders? meh.
- Nov 21, 2010
- 13,831
- 18,340
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Chelsea, Detroit Pistons
I honestly think West Coast crowds complain noticeably more than any other crowd. Literally any HTB against them and the umpires get booed by a sizable portion of the stadium. It just doesn't happen to that extent with other teams. I don't know why the culture is like that. Not even Freo or the Adelaide teams have the same sort of consistently loud, abusive environment at the sight of nearly every free kick against or missed free kick for. It obviously has a huge effect.
They also pioneered (team-wide) drawing high tackles as a strategy in the early 2010s. God, that was so frustrating to watch. Both Selwood brothers, Hams, Darling, Shuey, sometimes even Kerr later in his career. Awful stuff to watch but brutally effective with a vocal crowd. Watching West Coast home games around 2011/12 was pretty difficult.
Add to that their midfield through the 2000s was so good. Teams had to risk giving away frees to compete. Plus they're not a high tackling team. Go back any year since 2000 and they're likely to be in the bottom third for tackle differential.
The main factor this season appears to be the crowds, as their free kick advantage evaporates away from home.
They also pioneered (team-wide) drawing high tackles as a strategy in the early 2010s. God, that was so frustrating to watch. Both Selwood brothers, Hams, Darling, Shuey, sometimes even Kerr later in his career. Awful stuff to watch but brutally effective with a vocal crowd. Watching West Coast home games around 2011/12 was pretty difficult.
Add to that their midfield through the 2000s was so good. Teams had to risk giving away frees to compete. Plus they're not a high tackling team. Go back any year since 2000 and they're likely to be in the bottom third for tackle differential.
The main factor this season appears to be the crowds, as their free kick advantage evaporates away from home.
- Aug 15, 2009
- 4,653
- 7,399
- AFL Club
- West Coast
FTFY.
Draft Pick
Cancelled
- Jun 17, 2004
- 2,551
- 3,591
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Western Bulldogs
What are you talking about ?
The chart goes back 15 years.
Therefore 2006 is included.
By the way free kick differential is a simplistic lot of nonsense that doesn’t prove anything, but is interesting that you were one of the loudest and mouthiest about the western bulldogs free kick differential in 2016, and now trying to deny the same stat may have helped your club win a flag. But as I say the statistic is a lot of nonsense which people use to suit their own argument.
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In all seriousness, it would take a lot of analysis to find out the why of the figure.
Right now it's everyone is at best speculating, some are getting defensive and salty and taking pot shots at each other with no real constructive content to the thread.
I find there's merit in crowd factor and umpire subconscious as well as game style and certain players able to draw frees (inside grunt players for eg). However there is no real answer until such time that someone does some thorough and exhaustive analysis.
Right now it's everyone is at best speculating, some are getting defensive and salty and taking pot shots at each other with no real constructive content to the thread.
I find there's merit in crowd factor and umpire subconscious as well as game style and certain players able to draw frees (inside grunt players for eg). However there is no real answer until such time that someone does some thorough and exhaustive analysis.
Gonna buy Gil a coffee and bring my laptop.
Hah you know what i mean. .
kaiserchief13
Hall of Famer
- Jul 12, 2011
- 35,478
- 26,343
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
Because Bulldogs style was similar to Richmond's now which means they should have given away a lot more frees than were paid. The fact they were given every iffy decision their way when obvious ones were not paid to the opposition let alone iffy ones as well. Dogs should have been in the negative in 2016 but were somehow over +100
Nothing says other teams fans cant be noisy
- Nov 21, 2010
- 13,831
- 18,340
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Chelsea, Detroit Pistons
reeeeeeaaaaaallly????
That doesn't say much of worth. You may have some tendency for higher ranked sides to be higher tackling teams, which tend to give free kicks away in that area, despite having better defenders.
R squared is also pretty useless. I don't think anyone here has stated that the outcome of a large sample of matches turns on whather or not a team is favoured by the umpires. It's just one factor. What would be more relevant is the significance combined with R value over the margin.
To do it as best I could think up right now, you'd regress the free kick differential of each game against the margin of the game, with team x year dummy variables to eliminate any funky stuff going on with ladder-wide trends that could interfere. Then you could maybe get a better estimate for how free kick differential effects the margin of a game.
I am prepared to do none of this.
- Nov 21, 2010
- 13,831
- 18,340
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Chelsea, Detroit Pistons
Draft Pick
Cancelled
- Jun 17, 2004
- 2,551
- 3,591
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Western Bulldogs
Why did I bother ?
Yeah I know what you mean but I disagree with you, I live in Perth and spend a lot of time back in vic (fifo). I can tell you there is little hate for wa or sa teams in vic. wa and sa do get media coverage in vic and some of it is on the rare occasion bias against, the bulk of vic fans don't do the hate all interstaters thing as you may believe.
Your posts suggest that you have some sense of hate from vic fans but not as a result of vic fans calling you up and telling you they hate wc. I'd imagine unless you know a vic fan that hates you and wc and has your number and tells you so then you're basing your belief on the media and social media.
kaiserchief13
Hall of Famer
- Jul 12, 2011
- 35,478
- 26,343
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
It was not the count that annoyed me, rather the way their finals games were umpired, especially prelims and grand final.Why did I bother ?
One obvious conclusion.
Notice that despite the obvious conclusions one can draw from the raw data, especially the obvious gift that was 2016, there has been no whinging from my mob's fans in this thread.
This post is the token whinge.
Dogs fans totally missing, Weagle fans trying to deflect even when the data is so totally damning.
So on the odd occasion we may mention we seemed to get a raw deal over the course of a season, you can actually take that to the bank coz we arent spotty faced whiney little cheerleading bitches like so many in here.
Good to see confirmation of what everyone already suspected re the weagles.
There is no need to search for explanations when something is so blatant.
Notice that despite the obvious conclusions one can draw from the raw data, especially the obvious gift that was 2016, there has been no whinging from my mob's fans in this thread.
This post is the token whinge.
Dogs fans totally missing, Weagle fans trying to deflect even when the data is so totally damning.
So on the odd occasion we may mention we seemed to get a raw deal over the course of a season, you can actually take that to the bank coz we arent spotty faced whiney little cheerleading bitches like so many in here.
Good to see confirmation of what everyone already suspected re the weagles.
There is no need to search for explanations when something is so blatant.
Biggest individual differentials in Perth
+140 Cox
+103 A.Selwood
+85 Shuey
+70 Kerr
+62 Priddis
+47 Naitanui
+46 S.Selwood
+36 Braun
Generally the engine room that has profited.
+140 Cox
+103 A.Selwood
+85 Shuey
+70 Kerr
+62 Priddis
+47 Naitanui
+46 S.Selwood
+36 Braun
Generally the engine room that has profited.
