Preview Fremantle - v - Adelaide ; a pivotal game

[theGav56]

The Crows were predicted to be major players this season and Fremantle given no hope as we trekked along the rebuilding pathway. The Crows have actually been quite strategic in their list planning to remain genuine premiership contenders after their 2017 appearance, while also having great draft hands to restock the cupboard with. But you get the feeling all is still not quite right in the psyche ward after the pre-season debacle last season.

The season for both teams hasn't quite gone as would be predicted, but both sides are coming of two wins, and chalking up a third straight win has the potential to shape the season for each club, an opportunity to build momentum and belief. Win this game, on the road, against an in form team considered a strong contender for the premiership and the Fremantle bandwagon will start to resemble a Bombay train in peak hour. Even a decent showing will have some clambering aboard. A loss for the Crows won't be something that would have been seriously considered at the start of the season. The win would have been penciled in, with Fyfe maybe causing some headaches, but that's football. And now some dumb-ass club has played them into form, and we have to deal with it. They will be looking at us a bit differently now and won't underestimate us, and we should be fronting up hungry for the contest.

To labour the point, an away win for us will mean we will play finals. No guarantee for sure, but most will have that expectation, and the odds will support it. Away wins against similarly ranked clubs are gold.

Some things to ponder;

• Betts and Matera. Will we see a shootout from the two in form smalls.
• Nyhuis will stay, and the timing couldn't be better. We need a lockdown small defender against Adelaide, and we all know the saying Cometh the man, cometh the house! Well, the Huis is in the House.
• Big Tex Walker and his equally big sidekick, The 'Berg will be thinking they are pretty good right now, but Pearce and Hamling will be ready for them. Arses are going to be handed out on platters. Ryan is in terrific form, and how fantastic to see that Wilson has finally got a nights sleep from parenting duties.
• I am all for persisting with Lobb as ruck rather than tampering with the forward line, which bringing in Darcy would end up resulting in. Hogan, Taberner and McCarthy look like the best combination of tall forwards to me, and we need to let them build the bromance as we did with our backline.
• Keith and Talia look like a great combination in their backline and I hope Hogan and Taberner have a great battle with them. I'm tipping McCarthy to have an impact for us in the shadows of those match-ups in a low scoring tussle.

Ins and Outs
I am thinking no changes for us. I do want Blakely in this side, and we didn't perform well in the midfield against the Bulldogs. The Crows midfield are also powerful, and Blakely fit and in form would be a massive plus. We need him for the long term, and we have no obvious "outs", so it's a yeah, nah from me.

I can't really see the Crows changing a winning line up either even if players like Jenkins and Gibbs have a case for inclusion.

My tip;
Did anyone have this penciled in as a possibility at the start of the year? I didn't. I've been to games against the Crows in Adelaide before, and it is a lonely experience. But it is time for our club to believe, so I'm going for Fremantle by 3 points.

 

[Kenny_01]

Great preview!


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[Carson Dial]

The concern here is our record at Adelaide Oval. I think we have only won once in the last seven appearances.

No matter how bad the Crows form has been recently, they have an overwhelming win percentage playing against us there.

I agree that a win here would be a massive boost to our confidence and would make our win against GWS in Canberra look all the more impressive.

 

[Wally Walpamur]

It’s at Adelaide Oval. We’re in for another 100 point drubbing.

 

[beetz]

I’m not sure what the Win/loss record at Adelaide Oval has on this game? Always found it odd that people assume based on what has happened previously when there are so many factors to consider including that every upcoming game is completely different to the last ie line ups, weather, game style etc...

 

[Frigate]

Great write up Gav56, good to see an early preview, I think you nailed it, leaving room for a lot of discussion

I expect to lose this game. Not sure why, I just hate Adelaide as a place for us to go. I look at the teams, and I think we should have the edge, but they are a strange team. Good Adelaide is a bad prospect. Some tipped them for the GF. Many have jumped off that wagon and turned to liquid to ease the pain. Others that wear purple, are expecting a win and saving their pennies for a plane trip to Melbourne???

I am with you, we win this game we will be under $2 to make the 8 - not bad considering we were paying $4 at the start of the season. This line of talk means nothing apart from the fact that we are moving closer toward the 8, and the excitement and new expectations are changing. Is it all warranted? What is the big difference. Many argue that "some players are playing better". I believe it is pretty obvious that Hogan and Lobbe take so much pressure away that Tabs becomes free (and actually playing - he was out most of the year). When tabs is not free, one of the others is open or with a mismatch. Also - McCarthy becomes the 3rd key lead forward, and he is becoming a weapon. I love watching him play - he is a natural footballer, and when on - what a beautiful kick he is - field or at goal = he is up there with Ablett Jnr I reckon - he has vision and ability. (I will get abuse for this, but I believe he has serious skills).

So yeah, I think we have the better team now - I think Hamling follows Walker, Pearce takes the tall close to home. Ryan gets the 3rd, and Hughes continues his amazing form as intercept role - he has had a great year I reckon (despite others).

Midfield is my concern. I just cannot see both Hill and Langdon reproducing these games(week in week out), and I feel we can rely on Fyfe and that is it. I think Mundy will be up and down - if he gets attention he is shot just from speed, but that should release others - but that is the thing - unless the juniors take the game and stop clanging the pill, the game becomes a 50/50. That is why we need Blakely.
How do you rest players - to say "think about your game son"? Geelong did it with Constable and he had a cracking game - they are now doing it with Clarke - surely we need to bring in the experienced Blakely for Brayshaw (before Cerra). Thing is Brayshaw had his best game this year IMO, but so did Cerra, and Cerra is close to having a bust out game.

I assume it will be an honourable loss. Saying that, we have won 2 in a row now, so I never saw that coming.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

It’s at Adelaide Oval. We’re in for another 100 point drubbing.

I'd love that. We could have all the brick throwers back flooding each thread

 

[Superkoops]

The concern here is our record at Adelaide Oval. I think we have only won once in the last seven appearances.

You are spot on. Since the opening of the redeveloped AO stadium for the start of 2014 Fremantle have won just one game.

It was the Fyfe vs Dangerfield game in 2015. Against Port 0/4 against Adelaide 1/3.

The 100 pt drubbing was in atrocious wet weather conditions and Freo played like they would rather be rugged up with their blankets sitting around a hot lounge room fireplace.

The early forecast for Sun arvo is fine, mostly sunny and 21 degrees.

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[theGav56]

How often had we won in Canberra?

At some stage we win there. The odds will be well and truly against us. But I think Adelaide look a bit shaky. I'm not going to be surprised if we do come away with a bit of a drubbing, but if we can get things to click together then I don't see them as a side we should be afraid of. We need to throw them off their game plan. Pyke isn't very good at Plan B.

 

[FreoRicci]

How often had we won in Canberra?

At some stage we win there. The odds will be well and truly against us. But I think Adelaide look a bit shaky. I'm not going to be surprised if we do come away with a bit of a drubbing, but if we can get things to click together then I don't see them as a side we should be afraid of. We need to throw them off their game plan. Pyke isn't very good at Plan B.

Exactly. Watching Adelaide, theyre really not the same team in 2019 then compared to 2017. Meh forward line and back line only keeping by Talia. There’s nothing to fear, if we want to beat Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, it’s now.

Pearce will be over Walker, most important job behind Nyhuis on Betts. Keep them to minimum scores, we have a huge chance.
We play the same gameplan then against GWS, keep it tight, put intense pressure on, definitely goes a long way. Be a good measuring stick. Want to win big time

 

[wild side]

We've been good at analysing the opp this year (Ross big tick), so I expect the same. If we stick to the game plan it will be close imo.
Go away from the game plan and we could get a touch up!!

 

[Joao]

Exactly. Watching Adelaide, theyre really not the same team in 2019 then compared to 2017. Meh forward line and back line only keeping by Talia. There’s nothing to fear, if we want to beat Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, it’s now.

Pearce will be over Walker, most important job behind Nyhuis on Betts. Keep them to minimum scores, we have a huge chance.
We play the same gameplan then against GWS, keep it tight, put intense pressure on, definitely goes a long way. Be a good measuring stick. Want to win big time

Alex Keath is in beast mode in their defense atm, probably playing better than Talia IMO.

 

[MadMundy]

It's a game that we definitely can win, and a game I think we will win. It may be the overwhelming optimism talking, but i just have a really good feeling about this team, we have something driving us that I haven't seen in a long time.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

I think we win this. We've brought the pressure in every game this year, and the Crows haven't handled high pressure games well. Our tall forwards will be a handful for them, even if Talia covers one of Tabs or Hogan and we have good match-ups for their most dangerous forwards - Pearce on Walker, Nyhuis on Betts. The team defence is better than ever. If the midfield is switched on and we get a boost from Walters and Blakely running through there, we should get enough supply to kick a winning score.

Freo by 20

 

[StingBitten]

Adelaide have talent but they're not particularly smart.

Expect them to bomb it long, expect our speed to get the better of them and for us to goalsneak our way to a famous victory.

 

[theGav56]

Alex Keath is in beast mode in their defense atm, probably playing better than Talia IMO.

Keath had a great game on the weekend, and if it was last year those two players would be enough to take us down. But it's a Bran Nu Dae for us, and they are going to find it a lot more difficult with our forward set up.

I am a bit of a fan of their midfield but it lacks pace, and O'Brien is ordinary as a ruck. We have actually been doing ok in the midfield despite how things looked against the Bulldogs. If our runners get away we could get an edge.

 

[Minz]

I am cautiously hopeful. Cautious in that I have supported the Dockers since the start, and have learnt not to hope too much. Hopeful in that I really want to be able to say "Yeaaaaah baby, it's our year!". One day perhaps!

 

[wayToGo_]

I just want us to be competitive against Adelaide away. Although it is time we turned around the nightmare that is AO so would love a win. Last time we played Adelaide (Rd 12, 2018 @ Optus) we managed to squeeze an unexpected win sans Fyfe. What was perhaps more impressive is we did that playing Apeness and Jones as our rucks against Sam Jacobs! Cox got the Rising Star nod for his 4 goals but Cerra arguably deserved it with 30 disposals from HB. Our youngsters managed to overcome a seasoned team (23y 7m v 25yr 11m - they had 7 150+ game players, we had 2).

Both teams should look a fair bit different from that game. We add Fyfe, BHill, Lobb, Hogan, Tabs, McCarthy, Switkowski, Colyer, Conca and Hughes. So basically an entirely different forward line excepting Matera, plus adding our best player, our best runner, and our best hitter Blakely, Cox and Neale the only names of note missing and two of those will be available for selection. Sound pretty good? And Jacobs won't be playing nor Doedee, Milera and Seedsman. Not sure where Jenkins is at? However they'll also add plenty of quality themselves... Sloane, BCrouch, Lynch, Smith, Laird, Himmelberg... Those are some massive ins for both teams.

I think we're in with a 'strong' chance here. They aren't a fast team. Solid on every line without being amazing. Betts always seems to give us a bath though - he only kicked 2 goals last time but he also had 6 behinds... could have been ugly if he was accurate. They've been in good form the past two games albeit against two teams that rely almost solely on manic pressure (that neither seemed to bring their A game to). They are a good defensive team so we can't bomb it in or they'll smash us. Also need to be ultra accountable at stoppages. We're the underdogs but this is still a winnable game. If we can beat GWS away we are a chance in every game now.

Freo by 10

 

[salim malik]

Who replaces Hamling if he is injured? Cox ? Blakely for Walters if Walters has a knee problem is a given.

 

[FreoRicci]

Who replaces Hamling if he is injured? Cox ? Blakely for Walters if Walters has a knee problem is a given.

Hamling injured? Walters knee? What’s all this

 

[Marty Whitelaw]

After so many drubbings over there, Adelaide Oval has such bad vibes. But having said that, just not sure what to make of the Crows this year. Midfield lacks pace which may be something we can exploit and their forward line (which was so good in 2017) has been patchy.

Hoping that Jesse picks this weekend to take the game by the scruff of the neck, with his 7 goals leading us to a famous victory!

 

[stax on the mull]

I'm mindful of the comments Ross made after the game about Walters getting a bit battered sometimes in the midfield against bigger bodies, because of his size so I'm thinking a bolstering of the midfield might be desirable.

We have several options for changes. I'm not against adding Darcy and putting Lobb forward, probably at the expense of McCarthy to get a bigger ruck advantage and a stronger marking structure up forward. Adelaide are playing to a 23yo ruckman (Reilly O'Brien) who has played less than 10 games with Himmelberg as back up. Obrien did well against St Kilda, but the Saints had to bring back out of form Longer because Marshall was injured.

Alternatively we could add Blakely, but depending on how his game in the WAFL was viewed (ie did they just want to get him through unscathed with the correct minutes) - but its hard to know who to drop for him to make way. Nyhuis and Hughes had great games, Conca and Colyer provide a bit of hardness and speed. Possibly Brayshaw could be managed for workload but it defeats the exercise replacing a mid with a mid. Blakely is a 25+ possession player when he's up and going, so at best you add about 10-15 possessions to your team.

Smith and Laird coming off half back are the ones we need to keep to minimal ball use. We can't have them flowing through the midfield receiving from their mids and delivering inside 50m.

Adelaide seem to be transitioning their side a little bit. Obrien the ruckman, Himmelberg being preferred to Jenkins. Gibbs perhaps injured, or returning from illness, but was dropped a couple of weeks back.

Could there be a need for an extra tall defender. Adelaide have 3 talls in Walker, Himmelberg (alternatively Jenkins this week) and Lynch - meaning one of Hughes, Ryan would have to take Lynch.

One thing they'll remember is that Cerra was best on ground when we beat them last year (10 coaches votes, 3 Browlow votes), so they'll be wary of him.

Overall, they're a mature midfield but perhaps a little slow across the ground and they're not any better than the GWS or Western Bulldogs midfield, so again we could win this with good patches of dominance out of the centre, defending their entries well and making the most of our scoring opportunities. Pretty simple.

 

[Monument Hills]

Hoping to snatch a win but just looking to see a competitive effort across all 4 quarters and no drubbing should we lose. Our biggest loss to date has been 13 points and it would be good not to expand on that.

If there are no changes we still have a strong, well gelled, back 6, and at least 4 forwards who are all scoring well or capable thereof given even half a chance. Our forwards didn't have a great night against the Bullies who flooded and we still scored 88. We were lucky to score 88 on a great game against a bottom team the past couple of years.

Will really depend how our midfield goes - if they have an off night they will probably out score us.

Not sure how Walters is injured. I saw him do 2 interviews (on ground and in the change rooms) after the game and he didn't seem hampered, there was no ice, or limping. If he was, I would've expected him to be off getting that seen to, not swanning around with the media.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

With the way the season is looking, every game just feel so massive, cant help but think that GC drop is going to kill us come the end of the year.

Realistically have to win at least 1 of the next 2 games. I think we should be favourites against a Richmond side at home to be honest and I'd go 60-40 to the Crows for this week

 

[theGav56]

Stax, I think they dropped Gibbs. Big statement by them. And I think Jenkins is on the outer too. Like your summary.